Improving electricity market price scenarios by means of forecasting factor models

In liberalized electricity markets, generation Companies must build an hourly bidthat is sent to the market operator. The price at which the energy will be paid is unknown during the bidding process and has to be forecast. In this work we apply forecasting factor models to this framework and study its suitability.

Intégrer les proches dans l'abord des addictions aux jeux d'argent : l'expérience d'une unité spécialisée en Suisse romande

Cet article décrit les procédures de soins mises en place depuis 10 ans au Centre de jeu excessif à Lausanne pour intégrer les proches dans le traitement des addictions aux jeux d'argent. Ce bilan permet de dégager également des pistes pour améliorer cette prise en compte des proches, que ce soit au niveau de la formation ou au niveau politique. (réd.).

Monetary policy and rational asset price bubbles

I examine the impact of alternative monetary policy rules on arational asset price bubble, through the lens of an overlapping generations model with nominal rigidities. A systematic increase in interestrates in response to a growing bubble is shown to enhance the fluctuations in the latter, through its positive effect on bubble growth. Theoptimal monetary policy seeks to strike a balance between stabilization of the bubble and stabilization of aggregate demand. The paper'smain findings call into question the theoretical foundations of the casefor "leaning against the wind" monetary policies.

Optimal public rationing and price response.

We study optimal public health care rationing and private sector price responses. Consumers differ in their wealth and illness severity (defined as treatment cost). Due to a limited budget, some consumers must be rationed. Rationed consumers may purchase from a monopolistic private market. We consider two information regimes. In the first, the public supplier rations consumers according to their wealth information (means testing). In equilibrium, the public supplier must ration both rich and poor consumers. Rationing some poor consumers implements price reduction in the private market. In the second information regime, the public supplier rations consumers according to consumers' wealth and cost information. In equilibrium, consumers are allocated the good if and only if their costs are below a threshold (cost effectiveness). Rationing based on cost results in higher equilibrium consumer surplus than rationing based on wealth.

2009-2011 Collective Bargaining Agreement Between State of Iowa and Local 893; Science Unit, July 1, 2009

This Agreement made and entered i into this 1 1st day of July 2009, at Des Moines, Iowa, pursuant to the provisions of Chapter 20 of the Iowa Code, by and between the State of Iowa (hereinafter referred to as the Employer) and UE Local 893/Iowa United Professionals, and its appropriate affiliated locals, as representatives of employees employed by the State of Iowa, as set forth specifically in Appendix A (hereinafter referred to as the Union).

Front-crawl instantaneous velocity estimation using a wearable inertial measurement unit.

Monitoring the performance is a crucial task for elite sports during both training and competition. Velocity is the key parameter of performance in swimming, but swimming performance evaluation remains immature due to the complexities of measurements in water. The purpose of this study is to use a single inertial measurement unit (IMU) to estimate front crawl velocity. Thirty swimmers, equipped with an IMU on the sacrum, each performed four different velocity trials of 25 m in ascending order. A tethered speedometer was used as the velocity measurement reference. Deployment of biomechanical constraints of front crawl locomotion and change detection framework on acceleration signal paved the way for a drift-free integration of forward acceleration using IMU to estimate the swimmers velocity. A difference of 0.6 ± 5.4 cm · s(-1) on mean cycle velocity and an RMS difference of 11.3 cm · s(-1) in instantaneous velocity estimation were observed between IMU and the reference. The most important contribution of the study is a new practical tool for objective evaluation of swimming performance. A single body-worn IMU provides timely feedback for coaches and sport scientists without any complicated setup or restraining the swimmer's natural technique.

Prospective monitoring of cefepime in intensive care unit adult patients

Rapport de synthèse :Le céfépime a été associé à un taux de mortalité supérieur à celui des autres bêta-lactamines chez les patients traités pour un sepsis sévère. Une des hypothèses avancées pour expliquer ces échecs thérapeutiques sont de possibles effets secondaires cachés (par ex. neurologiques) ou des paramètres pharmacocinétiques/pharmacodynamiques (PK/PD) inadaptés. Le présent travail a étudié cette problématique en mesurant prospectivement la pharmacocinétique du céfépime chez 21 patients consécutifs hospitalisés aux soins intensifs adultes (SIAD) pour une pneumonie nosocomiale. La population étudiée avec un âge médian 55,1 ans, a reçu par voie intraveineuse du céfépime à raison de 2 g toutes les 12 heures pour une clairance de la créatinine (Clcr)>50 mI/ min, et 2 g toutes les 24 heures ou 36 heures pour une Clcr<50 ml /min. Les taux plasmatiques de céfépime ont été mesurés à plusieurs reprises avant et après administration du médicament après la lèoe dose et à l'état d'équilibre par chromatographie en phase liquide à haute pression. Les taux plasmatiques ont considérablement varié entre les patients. Cent pour cent (21/21) des patients ont eu une durée appropriée d'antibiothérapie avec des taux plasmatiques supérieures à la CMI du céfépime (T>CMI>50%) pour les agents pathogènes retrouvés dans cette étude (CMI<4 mg/I), mais seulement 45-65% d'entre eux ont eu une couverture appropriée pour les agents pathogènes potentiels présentant une CMI> 8 mg/I pour le céfépime. Deux patients avec une insuffisance rénale (Clcr<30 ml/min) ont présenté des symptômes compatibles avec une épilepsie non-convulsive (état confusionnel et myoclonies) attribuée dans un 2ème temps à une toxicité du céfépime après que les taux plasmatiques aient été communiqués aux soignants qui ont suspendu l'antibiothérapie avec disparition des symptômes. Les résultats de cette étude empirique confirment l'existence d'effets secondaires cachés et de paramètres PK/PD inappropriés (pour les agents pathogènes ayant des CMI de limite supérieure) dans notre population de SIAD. En outre, ils mettent en évidence une fenêtre thérapeutique efficace pour une posologie de céfépime de 2 g toutes les 12 heures chez les patients ayant une Clcr>50 ml/min infectés par des pathogènes avec des CMI pour le céfépime <4 mg/I. Les échecs thérapeutiques constatés dans cette étude sont probablement liés à des taux sériques inadaptés, résultant de la difficulté de prescription dans les situations cliniques complexes. Dans ce contexte, un prompt dosage plasmatique du céfépime doit être considéré en cas de diminution de la Clcr ou en présence de CMI élevées.

Construct validity of the French version of the PRWE (Patient Rated Wrist Evaluation) with the French version of the DASH (Disabilities Arm Shoulder and Hand) is good to very good in a population of patients with wrist injuries in an inpatient rehabilitation unit

Objective.- The Patient-Rated Wrist Evaluation is a specific questionnaire for the wrist [1]. It consists of 15 questions with a total score of 100. It was recently translated into French [2]. However, its validity has not been tested in this language. The Disabilities Arm Shoulder and Hand (DASH), with well-established psychometric properties, is considered as the reference questionnaire for the evaluation of upper extremities. The objective of this study is to measure the construct validity of the PRWE-F with the DASH-F in patients with wrist pathology.Patients and methods.- Fifty-one patients (40 m, 11 w, mean age 42 years), 25 fractures of the radius and 26 lesions of the carpus.Questionnaires PRWE-F and DASH-F at entry and at discharge (0 to 100). Calculation of the construct validity of the PRWE-F comparing with the DASH-F with Pearson correlation coefficients (r) at entry and at discharge. Level of significance (alpha) was set at 5%.Results.- Correlation DASH/PRWE at entry: r = 0.799 (95% CI 0.671 to 0.881), P < 0.0001. Correlation DASH/PRWE at discharge: r = 0.847 (95% CI: 0.745 to 0.910), P < 0.0001.Discussion.- The construct validity of the two instruments indicates that they measure the same concept. Our correlation between DASH-F and PRWE-F, going from 0.799 to 0.847, are comparable to those published in different languages (0.71 to 0.84) [3,4]. The questionnaires PRWE-F can thus be used in rehabilitation patients presenting with wrist pathologies; it is comparable to the DASH but described by MacDermid [1] to be more specific. Compared to the DASH it has the advantage of consisting of two dimensions. Its construct validity is excellent. This questionnaire should be evaluated in other populations, and it should be compared with hand questionnaires more specific than the DASH.

Level shifts in a panel data based unit root test : an application to the rate of unemployment

Several unit root tests in panel data have recently been proposed. The test developed by Harris and Tzavalis (1999 JoE) performs particularly well when the time dimension is moderate in relation to the cross-section dimension. However, in common with the traditional tests designed for the unidimensional case, it was found to perform poorly when there is a structural break in the time series under the alternative. Here we derive the asymptotic distribution of the test allowing for a shift in the mean, and assess the small sample performance. We apply this new test to show how the hypothesis of (perfect) hysteresis in Spanish unemployment is rejected in favour of the alternative of the natural unemployment rate, when the possibility of a change in the latter is considered.

An analysis of inflation rates in the European Union using wavelets : strong evidence against unit roots

In this paper we assume inflation rates in European Union countries may in fact be fractionally integrated. Given this assumption, we obtain estimations of the order of integration by means a method based on wavelets coefficients. Finally, results obtained allow reject the unit root hypothesis on inflation rates. It means that a random shock on the rate of inflation in these countries has transitory effects that gradually diminish with the passage of time, that this, said shock hasn¿t a permanent effect on future values of inflation rates