Three Essays in Empirical Asset Pricing

The financial crisis of 2007-2008 led to extraordinary government intervention in firms and markets. The scope and depth of government action rivaled that of the Great Depression. Many traded markets experienced dramatic declines in liquidity leading to the existence of conditions normally assumed to be promptly removed via the actions of profit seeking arbitrageurs. These extreme events motivate the three essays in this work. The first essay seeks and fails to find evidence of investor behavior consistent with the broad 'Too Big To Fail' policies enacted during the crisis by government agents. Only in limited circumstances, where government guarantees such as deposit insurance or U.S. Treasury lending lines already existed, did investors impart a premium to the debt security prices of firms under stress. The second essay introduces the Inflation Indexed Swap Basis (IIS Basis) in examining the large differences between cash and derivative markets based upon future U.S. inflation as measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI). It reports the consistent positive value of this measure as well as the very large positive values it reached in the fourth quarter of 2008 after Lehman Brothers went bankrupt. It concludes that the IIS Basis continues to exist due to limitations in market liquidity and hedging alternatives. The third essay explores the methodology of performing debt based event studies utilizing credit default swaps (CDS). It provides practical implementation advice to researchers to address limited source data and/or small target firm sample size.

ASSESSING QUALITY IN HIGH-UNCERTAINTY MARKETS: ONLINE REVIEWS OF CREDENCE SERVICES

In economics of information theory, credence products are those whose quality is difficult or impossible for consumers to assess, even after they have consumed the product (Darby & Karni, 1973). This dissertation is focused on the content, consumer perception, and power of online reviews for credence services. Economics of information theory has long assumed, without empirical confirmation, that consumers will discount the credibility of claims about credence quality attributes. The same theories predict that because credence services are by definition obscure to the consumer, reviews of credence services are incapable of signaling quality. Our research aims to question these assumptions. In the first essay we examine how the content and structure of online reviews of credence services systematically differ from the content and structure of reviews of experience services and how consumers judge these differences. We have found that online reviews of credence services have either less important or less credible content than reviews of experience services and that consumers do discount the credibility of credence claims. However, while consumers rationally discount the credibility of simple credence claims in a review, more complex argument structure and the inclusion of evidence attenuate this effect. In the second essay we ask, “Can online reviews predict the worst doctors?” We examine the power of online reviews to detect low quality, as measured by state medical board sanctions. We find that online reviews are somewhat predictive of a doctor’s suitability to practice medicine; however, not all the data are useful. Numerical or star ratings provide the strongest quality signal; user-submitted text provides some signal but is subsumed almost completely by ratings. Of the ratings variables in our dataset, we find that punctuality, rather than knowledge, is the strongest predictor of medical board sanctions. These results challenge the definition of credence products, which is a long-standing construct in economics of information theory. Our results also have implications for online review users, review platforms, and for the use of predictive modeling in the context of information systems research.

The Relation between Substance Use and Medication Adherence among HIV Positive Substance Users in Residential Treatment

Poor medication adherence is problematic among HIV positive, low-income African-American substance users. Substance use has been shown to be associated with poor medication adherence, though we do not know the mechanism that underlies this relationship. Lack of positive environmental rewards and the propensity to discount delayed rewards may be possible mechanisms to explain this relationship. Using baseline data from a randomized controlled trial, we examined the relationships between substance use and medication adherence, testing both environmental rewards and delay discounting as independent mediators. There was a main effect of substance use on adherence, such that high frequency of substance use predicted poor adherence. There was also a main effect of environmental rewards on adherence, such that a lack of environmental reinforcement predicted poor adherence. This study shed light on the processes that contribute to low adherence, namely substance use and lack of environmental contingencies, and suggests important targets for intervention.

Cost-effectiveness analysis of apixaban compared to low-molecular-weight heparins and vitamin k antagonists for treatment and secondary prevention of venous thromboembolism

Objective: Cost-effectiveness analysis of a 6-month treatment of apixaban (10 mg/12h, first 7 days; 5 mg/12h afterwards) for the treatment of the first event of venous thromboembolism (VTE) and prevention of recurrences, versus low-molecular-weight heparins/vitamin K antagonists treatment (LMWH/VKA). Material and methods: A lifetime Markov model with 13 health states was used for describing the course of the disease. Efficacy and safety data were obtained from AMPLIFY and AMPLIFY-EXT clinical trials; health outcomes were measured as life years gained (LYG) and quality-adjusted life years (QALY). The chosen perspective of this analysis has been the Spanish National Health System (NHS). Drugs, management of VTE and complications costs were obtained from several Spanish data sources (€, 2014). A 3% discount rate was applied to health outcomes and costs. Univariate and probabilistic sensitivity analyses (SA) were performed in order to assess the robustness of the results. Results: Apixaban was the most effective therapy with 7.182 LYG and 5.865 QALY, versus 7.160 LYG and 5.838 QALYs with LMWH/VKA. Furthermore, apixaban had a lower total cost (€13,374.70 vs €13,738.30). Probabilistic SA confirmed dominance of apixaban (led to better health outcomes with less associated costs) in 89% of the simulations. Conclusions: Apixaban 5 mg/12h versus LMWH/VKA was an efficient therapeutic strategy for the treatment and prevention of recurrences of VTE from the NHS perspective.

Equity research - Brisa

Mestrado em Finanças

Assistência na Doença aos Militares das Forças Armadas (ADM) – Que futuro?

Este trabalho tem por objetivo analisar a sustentabilidade da Assistência na Doença aos Militares (ADM), enquanto sistema autofinanciável. O autofinanciamento da ADM, com recurso exclusivo aos descontos efetuados pelos beneficiários, está, aparentemente em contradição com as disposições legais associadas à condição militar e isenta o Estado das suas obrigações. Esta é uma temática atual, cuja análise justifica um tratamento específico e singular, em consonância com as particularidades da condição militar, devendo, por isso, ser ponderados os diversos fatores condicionantes. Assim, partindo das despesas processadas pela ADM face às fontes de financiamento existentes, tentamos responder à questão central formulada - “Em que medida a ADM é sustentável e autofinanciável, com recurso exclusivo aos descontos dos beneficiários?”. Analisamos também se o regime optativo coloca em causa a sustentabilidade da ADM e em que medida esta decisão é condicionada pela perceção de que as disposições legais, relativas à condição militar, estão ou não a ser cumpridas. Concluímos que a ADM não é um sistema autofinanciável com recurso exclusivo aos descontos dos beneficiários, pelo menos por agora, pois suporta despesas que não são sua responsabilidade. Verificamos também que a maioria dos inquiridos, em caso de regime optativo, optaria por não descontar para a ADM, considerando o desconto elevado. Abstract: The Self-financing of the assistance in disease to Military (ADM) , with exclusive resource at the beneficiaries discounts , is disassociated from the military condition and relieves the State of its obligations. This is a current topic, whose analysis justifies specific and unique treatment in consonance with the characteristics of the military condition and should therefore be considered the various conditioning factors. This work aims to analyze the ADM sustainability, while a self-financing system. Thus, based on the expenses processed by ADM, as compared with existing funding sources, we try to answer the central question formulated - "To what extent ADM is sustainable and self-financing, with exclusive resource at the discounts of beneficiaries?". We also analysed if the optional regime puts into question the sustainability of ADM and to what extent this decision is conditioned by the perception that the legal provisions relating to the military condition, are being met or not. We conclude that ADM is not a self-financing system, with exclusive resource at the discounts of beneficiaries, at least for now and that supports expenses that are not their responsibility. We also verified that the majority of the inquired, would choose not discount for ADM, if optional regime is available, and considers the discount high.

Huambo Microbiology Laboratory : economical and financial viability

Mestrado em Finanças

Cost-effectiveness of a bivalent human papillomavirus vaccination program in Japan

Background Human papillomavirus (HPV) vaccines and their widespread adoption have the potential to relieve a large part of the burden of cervical cancer morbidity and mortality, particularly in countries that have low screening rates or, like Japan, lack a cohesive universal screening program. An economic evaluation was conducted to assess the cost-effectiveness of introducing a bivalent HPV vaccination program in Japan from a healthcare perspective. METHODS: A Markov model of the natural history of HPV infection that incorporates both vaccination and screening was developed for Japan. The modelled intervention, a bivalent HPV vaccine with a 100% lifetime vaccine efficacy and 80% vaccine coverage, given to a cohort of 12-year-old Japanese girls in conjunction with the current screening program, was compared with screening alone in terms of costs and effectiveness. A discount rate of 5% was applied to both costs and utilities where relevant. RESULTS: Vaccination alongside screening compared with screening alone is associated with an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) of US$20315 per quality-adjusted-life-year gained if 80% coverage is assumed. The ICER at 5% coverage with the vaccine plus screening, compared with screening alone, is US$1158. CONCLUSION: The cost-effectiveness results suggest that the addition of a HPV vaccination program to Japan's cervical cancer screening program is highly likely to prove a cost-effective way to reduce the burden of cervical cancer, precancerous lesions and HPV16/18-related diseases.

The economic feasibility of price discounts to improve diet in Australian Aboriginal remote communities

OBJECTIVE: To estimate the cost-effectiveness of fiscal measures applied in remote community food stores for Aboriginal Australians.

METHODS: Six price discount strategies on fruit, vegetables, diet drinks and water were modelled. Baseline diet was measured as 12 months' actual food sales data in three remote Aboriginal communities. Discount-induced changes in food purchases were based on published price elasticity data while the weight of the daily diet was assumed constant. Dietary change was converted to change in sodium and energy intake, and body mass index (BMI) over a 12-month period. Improved lifetime health outcomes, modelled for the remote population of Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islanders, were converted to disability adjusted life years (DALYs) saved using a proportional multistate lifetable model populated with diet-related disease risks and Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander rates of disease.

RESULTS: While dietary change was small, five of the six price discount strategies were estimated as cost-effective, below a $50,000/DALY threshold.

CONCLUSION: Stakeholders are committed to finding ways to reduce important inequalities in health status between Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islanders and non-Indigenous Australians. Price discounts offer potential to improve Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander health. Verification of these results by trial-based research coupled with consideration of factors important to all stakeholders is needed.

Economic evaluation of price discounts and skill-building strategies on purchase and consumption of healthy food and beverages: The SHELf randomized controlled trial

OBJECTIVE: Pricing strategies are a promising approach for promoting healthier dietary choices. However, robust evidence of the cost-effectiveness of pricing manipulations on dietary behaviour is limited. We aimed to assess the cost-effectiveness of a 20% price reduction on fruits and vegetables and a combined skills-based behaviour change and price reduction intervention. DESIGN AND METHODS: Cost-effectiveness analysis from a societal perspective was undertaken for the randomized controlled trial Supermarket Healthy Eating for Life (SHELf). Female shoppers in Melbourne, Australia were randomized to: (1) skill-building (n = 160); (2) price reductions (n = 161); (3) combined skill-building and price reduction (n = 161); or (4) control group (n = 161). The intervention was implemented for three months followed by a six month follow-up. Costs were measured in 2012 Australian dollars. Fruit and vegetable purchasing and consumption were measured in grams/week. RESULTS: At three months, compared to control participants, price reduction participants increased vegetable purchases by 233 g/week (95% CI 4 to 462, p = 0.046) and fruit purchases by 364 g/week (95% CI 95 to 633, p = 0.008). Participants in the combined group purchased 280 g/week more fruits (95% CI 27 to 533, p = 0.03) than participants in the control group. Increases were not maintained six-month post intervention. No effect was noticed in the skill-building group. Compared to the control group, the price reduction intervention cost an additional A$2.3 per increased serving of vegetables purchased per week or an additional A$3 per increased serving of fruit purchased per week. The combined intervention cost an additional A$12 per increased serving of fruit purchased per week compared to the control group. CONCLUSIONS: A 20% discount on fruits and vegetables was effective in promoting overall fruit and vegetable purchases during the period the discount was active and may be cost-effective. The price discount program gave better value for money than the combined price reduction and skill-building intervention. The SHELf trial is registered with Current Controlled Trials Registration ISRCTN39432901.

An energy-aware QoS enhanced method for service computing across clouds and data centers

QoS plays a key role in evaluating a service or a service composition plan across clouds and data centers. Currently, the energy cost of a service's execution is not covered by the QoS framework, and a service's price is often fixed during its execution. However, energy consumption has a great contribution in determining the price of a cloud service. As a result, it is not reasonable if the price of a cloud service is calculated with a fixed energy consumption value, if part of a service's energy consumption could be saved during its execution. Taking advantage of the dynamic energy-Aware optimal technique, a QoS enhanced method for service computing is proposed, in this paper, through virtual machine (VM) scheduling. Technically, two typical QoS metrics, i.e., the price and the execution time are taken into consideration in our method. Moreover, our method consists of two dynamic optimal phases. The first optimal phase aims at dynamically benefiting a user with discount price by transparently migrating his or her task execution from a VM located at a server with high energy consumption to a low one. The second optimal phase aims at shortening task's execution time, through transparently migrating a task execution from a VM to another one located at a server with higher performance. Experimental evaluation upon large scale service computing across clouds demonstrates the validity of our method.

A rational (unapologetically pragmatic) approach to dealing with the irrational - the setencing of offenders with mental disorders

People with mental impairment are so heavily over-represented in prisons and jails that jails have been labeled “warehouses for the mentally ill.” In many parts of the United States, there are more mentally impaired offenders in prisons than in hospitals for the mentally unwell. Offenders laboring with impaired mental functioning are often regarded as being less morally culpable for their crimes and hence less deserving of punishment. However, the reduced mental functioning of offenders does not diminish the harm caused to victims. People are no less dead if mentally unwell offenders kill them rather than offenders who are mentally sound. This tension has proven an intractable problem for sentencing law and practice. There are no clear, fair, and effective principles or processes for accommodating impaired mental functioning in the sentencing inquiry. It is an under-researched area of the law. In this Article, I explore this tension. Key to ascertaining the proper manner in which to incorporate mental illness into the sentencing system is clarity regarding the importance of consequences to the offender, as opposed to moral culpability. I analyze current approaches to sentencing offenders with mental health problems in both the United States and Australia. Despite the vastly different sentencing regimes in these countries, both systems are deficient in dealing with mentally ill offenders, but for different reasons. I propose a solution to administering sentences to offenders with a mental disorder that is equally applicable to both sentencing systems. Mental impairment should mitigate penalty. However, in determining the extent and circumstances in which it should do so, it is cardinal not to lose sight of the fact that those who are sentenced for a crime are not insane, and they were aware that their acts were wrong--otherwise they would not have been found guilty in the first instance. I argue that a standard ten percent sentencing discount should be accorded to offenders who were mentally disordered at the time of sentencing. There should be an even more substantial discount when it is likely that offenders will find the sanction--in particular imprisonment--more burdensome due to their mental state. This difference would ensure some recognition of the reduced blameworthiness of mentally impaired offenders and the extra hardship that some forms of punishment inflict on mentally *2 ill offenders, while not compromising the important objectives of proportionality and community protection. The only situations when mental disorder should not mitigate penalty are when the offender is a recidivist, serious sexual or violent offender. In these circumstances, the interests of the community are the paramount consideration. The analysis in this paper applies most directly when a term of imprisonment is imposed. However, the reasoning also extends to the threshold decision of whether or not a term of imprisonment should be imposed in the first place.

Perpetual debt valuation: the net present value myopia

Would you prefer to receive a fixed rent for a period of 50 years, 75 years or perpetually? Well, if you have chosen the perpetual option, you are absolutely right. However, when considering a mathematical and financial approach, they may all end up roughly the same whenever the Net Present Value (NPV) is approximately identical. It makes common sense to choose the perpetual option even if the NPV exhibits myopia when computing the discount value of a fixed yearly rent. After a certain period, the discount value becomes approximately the same even when adding more yearly fixed rents. Corporations and governments issue perpetual bonds while recognizing these may not represent a very good financing strategy and thus implying that most of these issues are either callable or convertible on the issuer’s request. In approaching the existing perpetual debt related NPV myopia, this paper holds two main goals: firstly, we intend to study the behaviours of perpetual debt yields against other perpetual instruments and, secondly, we consider the financial methods for assessing the value of money before proposing a formula adjustment that might serve to overcome default NPV when evaluating fixed rents in perpetuity.

Determinants Of Firm Terminal Value: The Perspective Of North American And European Financial Analysts

Company valuation models attempt to estimate the value of a company in two stages: (1) comprising of a period of explicit analysis and (2) based on unlimited production period of cash flows obtained through a mathematical approach of perpetuity, which is the terminal value. In general, these models, whether they belong to the Dividend Discount Model (DDM), the Discount Cash Flow (DCF), or RIM (Residual Income Models) group, discount one attribute (dividends, free cash flow, or results) to a given discount rate. This discount rate, obtained in most cases by the CAPM (Capital asset pricing model) or APT (Arbitrage pricing theory) allows including in the analysis the cost of invested capital based on the risk taking of the attributes. However, one cannot ignore that the second stage of valuation that is usually 53-80% of the company value (Berkman et al., 1998) and is loaded with uncertainties. In this context, particular attention is needed to estimate the value of this portion of the company, under penalty of the assessment producing a high level of error. Mindful of this concern, this study sought to collect the perception of European and North American financial analysts on the key features of the company that they believe contribute most to its value. For this feat, we used a survey with closed answers. From the analysis of 123 valid responses using factor analysis, the authors conclude that there is great importance attached (1) to the life expectancy of the company, (2) to liquidity and operating performance, (3) to innovation and ability to allocate resources to R&D, and (4) to management capacity and capital structure, in determining the value of a company or business in long term. These results contribute to our belief that we can formulate a model for valuating companies and businesses where the results to be obtained in the evaluations are as close as possible to those found in the stock market

Perpetual debt valuation: the net present value myopia

Would you prefer to receive a fixed rent for a period of 50 years, 75 years or perpetually? Well, if you have chosen the perpetual option, you are absolutely right. However, when considering a mathematical and financial approach, they may all end up roughly the same whenever the Net Present Value (NPV) is approximately identical. It makes common sense to choose the perpetual option even if the NPV exhibits myopia when computing the discount value of a fixed yearly rent. After a certain period, the discount value becomes approximately the same even when adding more yearly fixed rents. Corporations and governments issue perpetual bonds while recognizing these may not represent a very good financing strategy and thus implying that most of these issues are either callable or convertible on the issuer’s request. In approaching the existing perpetual debt related NPV myopia, this paper holds two main goals: firstly, we intend to study the behaviours of perpetual debt yields against other perpetual instruments and, secondly, we consider the financial methods for assessing the value of money before proposing a formula adjustment that might serve to overcome default NPV when evaluating fixed rents in perpetuity.