Testing hypotheses about the relationship between cannabis use and psychosis

Aim: To model the impact of rising rates of cannabis use on the incidence and prevalence of psychosis under four hypotheses about the relationship between cannabis use and psychosis. Methods: The study modelled the effects on the prevalence of schizophrenia over the lifespan of cannabis in eight birth cohorts: 1940-1944, 1945-1949, 1950-1954, 1955-1959, 1960-1964, 1965-1969, 1970-1974, 1975-1979. It derived predictions as to the number of cases of schizophrenia that would be observed in these birth cohorts, given the following four hypotheses: (1) that there is a causal relationship between cannabis use and schizophrenia; (2) that cannabis use precipitates schizophrenia in vulnerable persons; (3) that cannabis use exacerbates schizophrenia; and (4) that persons with schizophrenia are more liable to become regular cannabis users. Results: There was a steep rise in the prevalence of cannabis use in Australia over the past 30 years and a corresponding decrease in the age of initiation of cannabis use. There was no evidence of a significant increase in the incidence of schizophrenia over the past 30 years. Data on trends the age of onset of schizophrenia did not show a clear pattern. Cannabis use among persons with schizophrenia has consistently been found to be more common than in the general population. Conclusions: Cannabis use does not appear to be causally related to the incidence of schizophrenia, but its use may precipitate disorders in persons who are vulnerable to developing psychosis and worsen the course of the disorder among those who have already developed it. (C) 2003 Elsevier Science Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Prevalence and comorbidity of behavioral problems of children aged three to six: Results of the Braunschweiger Kindergartenstudie

Prevalence and comorbidity of behavioral problems of children aged three to six: Results of the Braunschweiger Kindergartenstudie Objectives: To analyze the frequency of behavioral and emotional problems and comorbidity of kindergarten children in Braunschweig as rated by their parents. Method: The analysis is part of the Braunschweiger Kindergartenstudie. In a sample of N = 809 children aged three to six the parents rated their children using a modified version of the Child Behavior Checklist/CBCL 4-18. Results: The prevalence rates range from 0.5% to 5.0%. The most frequent behavioral problems in kindergarten children were aggressive behavior and attention problems, followed by social problems. The study also provides bidirectional comorbidity rates. Conclusion: Finally the prevalence rates and the implications of the findings for prevention of behavioral problems in children are discussed.

The prevalence, intensities and risk factors associated with geohelminth infection in tea-growing communities of Assam, India

OBJECTIVE To determine the prevalence, intensity and associated risk factors for infection with Ascaris, hookworms and Trichuris in three tea-growing communities in Assam, India. METHODS Single faecal samples were collected from 328 individuals and subjected to centrifugal floatation and the Kato Katz quantitation technique and prevalence and intensities of infection with each parasite calculated. Associations between parasite prevalence, intensity and host and environmental factors were then made using both univariate and multivariate analysis. RESULTS The overall prevalence of Ascaris was 38% [95% confidence interval (CI): 33, 43], and the individual prevalence of hookworm and Trichuris was 43% (95% CI: 38, 49). The strongest predictors for the intensity of one or more geohelminths using multiple regression (P less than or equal to 0.10) were socioeconomic status, age, household crowding, level of education, religion, use of footwear when outdoors, defecation practices, pig ownership and water source. CONCLUSION A universal blanket treatment with broad-spectrum anthelmintics together with promotion of scholastic and health education and improvements in sanitation is recommended for helminth control in the communities under study.

Cost-effectiveness of dexamphetamine and methylphenidate for the treatment of childhood attention deficit hyperactivity disorder

Objective: To analyze from a health sector perspective the cost-effectiveness of dexamphetamine (DEX) and methylphenidate (MPH) interventions to treat childhood attention deficit hyperactivity disorder (ADHD), compared to current practice. Method: Children eligible for the interventions are those aged between 4 and 17 years in 2000, who had ADHD and were seeking care for emotional or behavioural problems, but were not receiving stimulant medication. To determine health benefit, a meta-analysis of randomized controlled trials was performed for DEX and MPH, and the effect sizes were translated into utility values. An assessment on second stage filter criteria ('equity', 'strength of evidence', 'feasibility' and 'acceptability to stakeholders') is also undertaken to incorporate additional factors that impact on resource allocation decisions. Simulation modelling techniques are used to present a 95% uncertainty interval (UI) around the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER), which is calculated in cost (in A$) per DALY averted. Results: The ICER for DEX is A$4100/DALY saved (95% UI: negative to A$14 000) and for MPH is A$15 000/DALY saved (95% UI: A$9100-22 000). DEX is more costly than MPH for the government, but much less costly for the patient. Conclusions: MPH and DEX are cost-effective interventions for childhood ADHD. DEX is more cost-effective than MPH, although if MPH were listed at a lower price on the Pharmaceutical Benefits Scheme it would become more cost-effective. Increased uptake of stimulants for ADHD would require policy change. However, the medication of children and wider availability of stimulants may concern parents and the community.

Cost-effectiveness of psychological and pharmacological interventions for generalized anxiety disorder and panic disorder

Objective: To assess from a health sector perspective the incremental cost-effectiveness of interventions for generalized anxiety disorder (cognitive behavioural therapy [CBT] and serotonin and noradrenaline reuptake inhibitors [SNRIs]) and panic disorder (CBT, selective serotonin reuptake inhibitors [SSRIs] and tricyclic antidepressants [TCAs]). Method: The health benefit is measured as a reduction in disability-adjusted life years (DALYs), based on effect size calculations from meta-analyses of randomised controlled trials. An assessment on second stage filters ('equity', 'strength of evidence', 'feasibility' and 'acceptability to stakeholders') is also undertaken to incorporate additional factors that impact on resource allocation decisions. Costs and benefits are calculated for a period of one year for the eligible population (prevalent cases of generalized anxiety disorder/panic disorder identified in the National Survey of Mental Health and Wellbeing, extrapolated to the Australian population in the year 2000 for those aged 18 years and older). Simulation modelling techniques are used to present 95% uncertainty intervals (UI) around the incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs). Results: Compared to current practice, CBT by a psychologist on a public salary is the most cost-effective intervention for both generalized anxiety disorder (A$6900/DALY saved; 95% UI A$4000 to A$12 000) and panic disorder (A$6800/DALY saved; 95% UI A$2900 to A$15 000). Cognitive behavioural therapy results in a greater total health benefit than the drug interventions for both anxiety disorders, although equity and feasibility concerns for CBT interventions are also greater. Conclusions: Cognitive behavioural therapy is the most effective and cost-effective intervention for generalized anxiety disorder and panic disorder. However, its implementation would require policy change to enable more widespread access to a sufficient number of trained therapists for the treatment of anxiety disorders.

Prevalence of peripheral arterial disease: persistence of excess risk in former smokers

Objective: To determine the age-standardised prevalence of peripheral arterial disease (PAD) and associated risk factors, particularly smoking. Method: Design: Cross-sectional survey of a randomly selected population. Setting: Metropolitan area of Perth, Western Australia. Participants: Men aged between 65-83 years. Results: The adjusted response fraction was 77.2%. Of 4,470 men assessed, 744 were identified as having PAD by the Edinburgh Claudication Questionnaire and/or the ankle-brachial index of systolic blood pressure, yielding an age-standardised prevalence of PAD of 15.6% (95% confidence intervals (CI): 14.5%, 16.6%). The main risk factors identified in univariate analyses were increasing age, smoking current (OR=3.9, 95% CI 2.9-5.1) or former (OR=2.0, 95% CI 1.6-2.4), physical inactivity (OR=1.4, 95% CI 1.2-1.7), a history of angina (OR=2.2, 95% CI 1.8-2.7) and diabetes mellitus (OR=2.1, 95% CI 1.7-2.6). The multivariate analysis showed that the highest relative risk associated with PAD was current smoking of 25 or more cigarettes daily (OR=7.3, 95% CI 4.2-12.8). In this population, 32% of PAD was attributable to current smoking and a further 40% was attributable to past smoking by men who did not smoke currently. Conclusions: This large observational study shows that PAD is relatively common in older, urban Australian men. In contrast with its relationship to coronary disease and stroke, previous smoking appears to have a long legacy of increased risk of PAD. Implications: This research emphasises the importance of smoking as a preventable cause of PAD.

Psychological characteristics of older versus younger persons with a functional gastrointestinal disorder (FGID)

Functional gastrointestinal disorders commonly affect people of all ages, including the elderly. While population-based studies report significant psychological morbidity in people diagnosed with these disorders it is not clear what effect age has in explaining this relationship. We hypothesised that psychological distress would be higher in older versus younger persons with a FGID from the community. A random sample of 4500 subjects were mailed a questionnaire on gastrointestinal symptoms in the past 12 months (response rate = 72%). Of those fulfilling Rome I criteria for a FGID (n = 988) we then classified subjects into older (>60 years) (n =126) versus younger (18-59 years) (n = 862) categories. Psychological variables included anxiety and depression (Delusions Symptom States Inventory) and neuroticism and extroversion (Eysenck Personality Inventory). Quality of life was assessed using the valid SF-12. Anxiety (4.5 vs. 3.1), depression (3.0 vs. 1.8) and neuroticism (5.7 vs. 4.9) were significantly higher in younger versus older subjects with a FGID. While mental functioning (43.1 vs. 48.3) was significantly more impaired in younger versus older subjects, the reverse was found for physical functioning (48.7 vs. 40.8). Younger people with a FGID experience greater

Estimate of Dementia Prevalence in a Community Sample from Sao Paulo, Brazil

Aims: To estimate dementia prevalence and describe the etiology of dementia in a community sample from the city of Sao Paulo, Brazil. Methods: A sample of subjects older than 60 years was screened for dementia in the first phase. During the second phase, the diagnostic workup included a structured interview, physical and neurological examination, laboratory exams, a brain scan, and DSM-IV criteria diagnosis. Results: Mean age was 71.5 years (n = 1,563) and 58.3% had up to 4 years of schooling (68.7% female). Dementia was diagnosed in 107 subjects with an observed prevalence of 6.8%. The estimate of dementia prevalence was 12.9%, considering design effect, nonresponse during the community phase, and positive and negative predictive values. Alzheimer`s disease was the most frequent cause of dementia (59.8%), followed by vascular dementia (15.9%). Older age and illiteracy were significantly associated with dementia. Conclusions: The estimate of dementia prevalence was higher than previously reported in Brazil, with Alzheimer`s disease and vascular dementia being the most frequent causes of dementia. Dementia prevalence in Brazil and in other Latin American countries should be addressed by additional studies to confirm these higher dementia rates which might have a sizable impact on countries` health services. Copyright (C) 2008 S. Karger AG, Basel

Loss of Ergodicity in the Transition from Annealed to Quenched Disorder in a Finite Kinetic Ising Model

We consider a kinetic Ising model which represents a generic agent-based model for various types of socio-economic systems. We study the case of a finite (and not necessarily large) number of agents N as well as the asymptotic case when the number of agents tends to infinity. The main ingredient are individual decision thresholds which are either fixed over time (corresponding to quenched disorder in the Ising model, leading to nonlinear deterministic dynamics which are generically non-ergodic) or which may change randomly over time (corresponding to annealed disorder, leading to ergodic dynamics). We address the question how increasing the strength of annealed disorder relative to quenched disorder drives the system from non-ergodic behavior to ergodicity. Mathematically rigorous analysis provides an explicit and detailed picture for arbitrary realizations of the quenched initial thresholds, revealing an intriguing ""jumpy"" transition from non-ergodicity with many absorbing sets to ergodicity. For large N we find a critical strength of annealed randomness, above which the system becomes asymptotically ergodic. Our theoretical results suggests how to drive a system from an undesired socio-economic equilibrium (e. g. high level of corruption) to a desirable one (low level of corruption).

Mental health and socio-economic variations in Australian suicide

This paper investigates the relationship between suicide rates and prevalence of mental disorder and suicide attempts, across socio-economic status (SES) groups based on area of residence. Australian suicide data (1996-1998) were analysed in conjunction with area-based prevalences of mental disorder derived from the National Survey of Mental Health and Well-Being (1997). Poisson regression models of suicide risk included age, quintile of area-based SES, urban-rural residence, and country of birth (COB), with males and females analysed separately. Analysis focussed on the association between suicide and prevalences of (ICD-10) affective disorders, anxiety disorders, substance use disorders and suicide attempts by SES group. Prevalences of other psychiatric symptomatology, substance use problems, health service utilisation, stressful life-events and personality were also investigated. Significant increasing gradients were evident from high to low SES groups for prevalences of affective disorders, anxiety disorders (females only), and substance use disorders (males only); sub-threshold drug and alcohol problems and depression; and suicide attempts and suicide (males only). Prevalences of mental disorder, other sub-threshold mental health items and suicide attempts were significantly associated with suicide, but in most cases associations were reduced in magnitude and became statistically non-significant after adjustment for COB, urban-rural residence, and SES. For male suicide the relative risk (RR) in the lowest SES group compared to the highest was 1.40 (95% CI 1.29-1.52, p < 0.001) for all ages, and 1.46 (95% CI 1.27-1.67, p < 0.001) for male youth (20-34 years). This relationship was not substantially modified in males when regression models included prevalences of affective disorders, and other selected mental health variables and demographic factors. From a population perspective, SES remained significantly associated with suicide after controlling for the prevalence of mental disorders and other psychiatric symptomatology. Mental conditions and previous suicidal behaviour may play an intermediary role between SES and suicide, but this study suggests that an independent relationship between suicide and SES also exists. (c) 2005 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.