Relative entropy rate based model selection for linear hybrid system filters of uncertain nonlinear systems

Hybrid system representations have been exploited in a number of challenging modelling situations, including situations where the original nonlinear dynamics are too complex (or too imprecisely known) to be directly filtered. Unfortunately, the question of how to best design suitable hybrid system models has not yet been fully addressed, particularly in the situations involving model uncertainty. This paper proposes a novel joint state-measurement relative entropy rate based approach for design of hybrid system filters in the presence of (parameterised) model uncertainty. We also present a design approach suitable for suboptimal hybrid system filters. The benefits of our proposed approaches are illustrated through design examples and simulation studies.

Intrinsic kinetics of titania photocatalysis : simplified models for their investigation

Even though titanium dioxide photocatalysis has been promoted as a leading green technology for water purification, many issues have hindered its application on a large commercial scale. For the materials scientist the main issues have centred the synthesis of more efficient materials and the investigation of degradation mechanisms; whereas for the engineers the main issues have been the development of appropriate models and the evaluation of intrinsic kinetics parameters that allow the scale up or re-design of efficient large-scale photocatalytic reactors. In order to obtain intrinsic kinetics parameters the reaction must be analysed and modelled considering the influence of the radiation field, pollutant concentrations and fluid dynamics. In this way, the obtained kinetic parameters are independent of the reactor size and configuration and can be subsequently used for scale-up purposes or for the development of entirely new reactor designs. This work investigates the intrinsic kinetics of phenol degradation over titania film due to the practicality of a fixed film configuration over a slurry. A flat plate reactor was designed in order to be able to control reaction parameters that include the UV irradiance, flow rates, pollutant concentration and temperature. Particular attention was paid to the investigation of the radiation field over the reactive surface and to the issue of mass transfer limited reactions. The ability of different emission models to describe the radiation field was investigated and compared to actinometric measurements. The RAD-LSI model was found to give the best predictions over the conditions tested. Mass transfer issues often limit fixed film reactors. The influence of this phenomenon was investigated with specifically planned sets of benzoic acid experiments and with the adoption of the stagnant film model. The phenol mass transfer coefficient in the system was calculated to be km,phenol=8.5815x10-7Re0.65(ms-1). The data obtained from a wide range of experimental conditions, together with an appropriate model of the system, has enabled determination of intrinsic kinetic parameters. The experiments were performed in four different irradiation levels (70.7, 57.9, 37.1 and 20.4 W m-2) and combined with three different initial phenol concentrations (20, 40 and 80 ppm) to give a wide range of final pollutant conversions (from 22% to 85%). The simple model adopted was able to fit the wide range of conditions with only four kinetic parameters; two reaction rate constants (one for phenol and one for the family of intermediates) and their corresponding adsorption constants. The intrinsic kinetic parameters values were defined as kph = 0.5226 mmol m-1 s-1 W-1, kI = 0.120 mmol m-1 s-1 W-1, Kph = 8.5 x 10-4 m3 mmol-1 and KI = 2.2 x 10-3 m3 mmol-1. The flat plate reactor allowed the investigation of the reaction under two different light configurations; liquid and substrate side illumination. The latter of particular interest for real world applications where light absorption due to turbidity and pollutants contained in the water stream to be treated could represent a significant issue. The two light configurations allowed the investigation of the effects of film thickness and the determination of the catalyst optimal thickness. The experimental investigation confirmed the predictions of a porous medium model developed to investigate the influence of diffusion, advection and photocatalytic phenomena inside the porous titania film, with the optimal thickness value individuated at 5 ìm. The model used the intrinsic kinetic parameters obtained from the flat plate reactor to predict the influence of thickness and transport phenomena on the final observed phenol conversion without using any correction factor; the excellent match between predictions and experimental results provided further proof of the quality of the parameters obtained with the proposed method.

Analytical and numerical solutions of the space and time fractional bloch-torrey equation

Fractional order dynamics in physics, particularly when applied to diffusion, leads to an extension of the concept of Brown-ian motion through a generalization of the Gaussian probability function to what is termed anomalous diffusion. As MRI is applied with increasing temporal and spatial resolution, the spin dynamics are being examined more closely; such examinations extend our knowledge of biological materials through a detailed analysis of relaxation time distribution and water diffusion heterogeneity. Here the dynamic models become more complex as they attempt to correlate new data with a multiplicity of tissue compartments where processes are often anisotropic. Anomalous diffusion in the human brain using fractional order calculus has been investigated. Recently, a new diffusion model was proposed by solving the Bloch-Torrey equation using fractional order calculus with respect to time and space (see R.L. Magin et al., J. Magnetic Resonance, 190 (2008) 255-270). However effective numerical methods and supporting error analyses for the fractional Bloch-Torrey equation are still limited. In this paper, the space and time fractional Bloch-Torrey equation (ST-FBTE) is considered. The time and space derivatives in the ST-FBTE are replaced by the Caputo and the sequential Riesz fractional derivatives, respectively. Firstly, we derive an analytical solution for the ST-FBTE with initial and boundary conditions on a finite domain. Secondly, we propose an implicit numerical method (INM) for the ST-FBTE, and the stability and convergence of the INM are investigated. We prove that the implicit numerical method for the ST-FBTE is unconditionally stable and convergent. Finally, we present some numerical results that support our theoretical analysis.

Bayesian hierarchical models in statistical quality control methods to improve healthcare in hospitals

Quality oriented management systems and methods have become the dominant business and governance paradigm. From this perspective, satisfying customers’ expectations by supplying reliable, good quality products and services is the key factor for an organization and even government. During recent decades, Statistical Quality Control (SQC) methods have been developed as the technical core of quality management and continuous improvement philosophy and now are being applied widely to improve the quality of products and services in industrial and business sectors. Recently SQC tools, in particular quality control charts, have been used in healthcare surveillance. In some cases, these tools have been modified and developed to better suit the health sector characteristics and needs. It seems that some of the work in the healthcare area has evolved independently of the development of industrial statistical process control methods. Therefore analysing and comparing paradigms and the characteristics of quality control charts and techniques across the different sectors presents some opportunities for transferring knowledge and future development in each sectors. Meanwhile considering capabilities of Bayesian approach particularly Bayesian hierarchical models and computational techniques in which all uncertainty are expressed as a structure of probability, facilitates decision making and cost-effectiveness analyses. Therefore, this research investigates the use of quality improvement cycle in a health vii setting using clinical data from a hospital. The need of clinical data for monitoring purposes is investigated in two aspects. A framework and appropriate tools from the industrial context are proposed and applied to evaluate and improve data quality in available datasets and data flow; then a data capturing algorithm using Bayesian decision making methods is developed to determine economical sample size for statistical analyses within the quality improvement cycle. Following ensuring clinical data quality, some characteristics of control charts in the health context including the necessity of monitoring attribute data and correlated quality characteristics are considered. To this end, multivariate control charts from an industrial context are adapted to monitor radiation delivered to patients undergoing diagnostic coronary angiogram and various risk-adjusted control charts are constructed and investigated in monitoring binary outcomes of clinical interventions as well as postintervention survival time. Meanwhile, adoption of a Bayesian approach is proposed as a new framework in estimation of change point following control chart’s signal. This estimate aims to facilitate root causes efforts in quality improvement cycle since it cuts the search for the potential causes of detected changes to a tighter time-frame prior to the signal. This approach enables us to obtain highly informative estimates for change point parameters since probability distribution based results are obtained. Using Bayesian hierarchical models and Markov chain Monte Carlo computational methods, Bayesian estimators of the time and the magnitude of various change scenarios including step change, linear trend and multiple change in a Poisson process are developed and investigated. The benefits of change point investigation is revisited and promoted in monitoring hospital outcomes where the developed Bayesian estimator reports the true time of the shifts, compared to priori known causes, detected by control charts in monitoring rate of excess usage of blood products and major adverse events during and after cardiac surgery in a local hospital. The development of the Bayesian change point estimators are then followed in a healthcare surveillances for processes in which pre-intervention characteristics of patients are viii affecting the outcomes. In this setting, at first, the Bayesian estimator is extended to capture the patient mix, covariates, through risk models underlying risk-adjusted control charts. Variations of the estimator are developed to estimate the true time of step changes and linear trends in odds ratio of intensive care unit outcomes in a local hospital. Secondly, the Bayesian estimator is extended to identify the time of a shift in mean survival time after a clinical intervention which is being monitored by riskadjusted survival time control charts. In this context, the survival time after a clinical intervention is also affected by patient mix and the survival function is constructed using survival prediction model. The simulation study undertaken in each research component and obtained results highly recommend the developed Bayesian estimators as a strong alternative in change point estimation within quality improvement cycle in healthcare surveillances as well as industrial and business contexts. The superiority of the proposed Bayesian framework and estimators are enhanced when probability quantification, flexibility and generalizability of the developed model are also considered. The empirical results and simulations indicate that the Bayesian estimators are a strong alternative in change point estimation within quality improvement cycle in healthcare surveillances. The superiority of the proposed Bayesian framework and estimators are enhanced when probability quantification, flexibility and generalizability of the developed model are also considered. The advantages of the Bayesian approach seen in general context of quality control may also be extended in the industrial and business domains where quality monitoring was initially developed.

Environmental and economic evaluation of N fertilizer rates in a maize crop in Italy : a spatial and temporal analysis using crop models

Crop simulation models have the potential to assess the risk associated with the selection of a specific N fertilizer rate, by integrating the effects of soil-crop interactions on crop growth under different pedo-climatic and management conditions. The objective of this study was to simulate the environmental and economic impact (nitrate leaching and N2O emissions) of a spatially variable N fertilizer application in an irrigated maize field in Italy. The validated SALUS model was run with 5 nitrogen rates scenarios, 50, 100, 150, 200, and 250 kg N ha−1, with the latter being the N fertilization adopted by the farmer. The long-term (25 years) simulations were performed on two previously identified spatially and temporally stable zones, a high yielding and low yielding zone. The simulation results showed that N fertilizer rate can be reduced without affecting yield and net return. The marginal net return was on average higher for the high yield zone, with values ranging from 1550 to 2650 € ha−1 for the 200 N and 1485 to 2875 € ha−1 for the 250 N. N leaching varied between 16.4 and 19.3 kg N ha−1 for the 200 N and the 250 N in the high yield zone. In the low yield zone, the 250 N had a significantly higher N leaching. N2O emissions varied between 0.28 kg N2O ha−1 for the 50 kg N ha−1 rate to a maximum of 1.41 kg N2O ha−1 for the 250 kg N ha−1 rate.

Quantitative studies of lower motor neuron degeneration in amyotrophic lateral sclerosis : Evidence for exponential decay of motor unit numbers and greatest rate of loss at the site of onset

Objective: To use our Bayesian method of motor unit number estimation (MUNE) to evaluate lower motor neuron degeneration in ALS. Methods: In subjects with ALS we performed serial MUNE studies. We examined the repeatability of the test and then determined whether the loss of MUs was fitted by an exponential or Weibull distribution. Results: The decline in motor unit (MU) numbers was well-fitted by an exponential decay curve. We calculated the half life of MUs in the abductor digiti minimi (ADM), abductor pollicis brevis (APB) and/or extensor digitorum brevis (EDB) muscles. The mean half life of the MUs of ADM muscle was greater than those of the APB or EDB muscles. The half-life of MUs was less in the ADM muscle of subjects with upper limb than in those with lower limb onset. Conclusions: The rate of loss of lower motor neurons in ALS is exponential, the motor units of the APB decay more quickly than those of the ADM muscle and the rate of loss of motor units is greater at the site of onset of disease. Significance: This shows that the Bayesian MUNE method is useful in following the course and exploring the clinical features of ALS. 2012 International Federation of Clinical Neurophysiology.

Emergency Health Services (EHS) : demand and service delivery models. [Monograph 2 : Queensland EHS users’ profile]

Emergency health is a critical component of Australia’s health system and one which is increasingly congested from growing demand and blocked access to inpatient beds. The Emergency Health Services Queensland (EHSQ) study aims to identify the factors driving increased demand for emergency health and to evaluate strategies which may safely reduce the future demand growth. This monograph addresses the characteristics of users of emergency health services with an aim to identify those that appear to contribute to demand growth. This study utilises data on patients treated by Emergency Departments (ED) and Queensland Ambulance Service (QAS) across Queensland. ED data was derived from the Emergency Department Information System (EDIS) for the period 2001-02 through to 2010-11. Ambulance data was extracted from the QAS’ Ambulance Information Management System (AIMS) and electronic Ambulance Report Form (eARF) for the period 2001-02 through to 2009-10. Due to discrepancies and comparability issues for ED data, this monograph compares data from the 2003-04 time period with 2010-11 data for 21 of the reporting EDs. Also a snapshot of users for the 2010-11 financial year for 31 reporting EDs is used to describe the characteristics of users and to compare those characteristics with population demographics. For QAS data, the 2002-03 and 2009-10 time periods were selected for detailed analyses to identify trends. • Demand for emergency health care services is increasing, representing both increased population and increased relative utilisation. Per capita demand for ED attention has increased by 2% per annum over the last decade and for ambulance attention by 3.7% per annum. • The growth in ED demand is prominent in more urgent triage categories with actual decline in less urgent patients. An estimated 55% of patients attend hospital EDs outside of normal working hours. There is no evidence that patients presenting out of hours are significantly different to those presenting within working hours; they have similar triage assessments and outcomes. • Patients suffering from injuries and poisoning comprise 28% of the ED workload (an increase of 65% in the study period), whilst declines of 32% in cardiovascular and circulatory conditions, and musculoskeletal problems have been observed. • 25.6% of patients attending EDs are admitted to hospital. 19% of admitted patients and 7% of patients who die in the ED are triage category 4 or 5 on arrival. • The average age of ED patients is 35.6 years. Demand has grown in all age groups and amongst both men and women. Men have higher utilisation rates for ED in all age groups. The only group where the growth rate in women has exceeded men is in the 20-29 age group; this growth is particularly in the injury and poisoning categories. • Considerable attention has been paid publicly to ED performance criteria. It is worth noting that 50% of all patients were treated within 33 minutes of arrival. • Patients from lower socioeconomic areas appear to have higher utilisation rates and the utilisation rate for indigenous people appears to exceed those of European and other backgrounds. The utilisation rates for immigrant people is generally less than that of Australian born however it has not been possible to eliminate the confounding impact of different age and socioeconomic profiles. • Demand for ambulance service is also increasing at a rate that exceeds population growth. Utilisation rates have increased by an average of 5% per annum in Queensland compared to 3.6% nationally, and the utilisation rate in Queensland is 27% higher than the national average. • The growth in ambulance utilisation has also been amongst the more urgent categories of dispatch and utilisation rates are higher in rural and regional areas than in the metropolitan area. The demand for ambulance increases with age but the growth in demand for ambulance service has been more prominent in younger age groups. These findings contribute significantly to an understanding of the growth in demand for emergency health. It shows that the growth is amongst patients in genuine need of emergency healthcare and public rhetoric that the congestion of emergency health services is due to inappropriate attendees is unable to be substantiated. The consistency of the growth in demand over the last decade reflects not only the changing demographics of the Australian population but also the changes in health status, standards of acute health care and other social factors. The growth is also amongst patients with acute injury and poisoning which is inconsistent with rates of chronic disease as a fundamental driver. We have also interviewed patients in regard to their decision making choices for acute health care and the factors that influence these decisions and this will be the subject of a third Monograph and publications.

Quantifying the roles of cell motility and cell proliferation in a circular barrier assay

Moving fronts of cells are essential features of embryonic development, wound repair and cancer metastasis. This paper describes a set of experiments to investigate the roles of random motility and proliferation in driving the spread of an initially confined cell population. The experiments include an analysis of cell spreading when proliferation was inhibited. Our data have been analysed using two mathematical models: a lattice-based discrete model and a related continuum partial differential equation model. We obtain independent estimates of the random motility parameter, D, and the intrinsic proliferation rate, λ, and we confirm that these estimates lead to accurate modelling predictions of the position of the leading edge of the moving front as well as the evolution of the cell density profiles. Previous work suggests that systems with a high λ/D ratio will be characterized by steep fronts, whereas systems with a low λ/D ratio will lead to shallow diffuse fronts and this is confirmed in the present study. Our results provide evidence that continuum models, based on the Fisher–Kolmogorov equation, are a reliable platform upon which we can interpret and predict such experimental observations.

Role of resting metabolic rate and energy expenditure in hunger and appetite control : a new formulation

A long-running issue in appetite research concerns the influence of energy expenditure on energy intake. More than 50 years ago, Otto G. Edholm proposed that "the differences between the intakes of food [of individuals] must originate in differences in the expenditure of energy". However, a relationship between energy expenditure and energy intake within any one day could not be found, although there was a correlation over 2 weeks. This issue was never resolved before interest in integrative biology was replaced by molecular biochemistry. Using a psychobiological approach, we have studied appetite control in an energy balance framework using a multi-level experimental system on a single cohort of overweight and obese human subjects. This has disclosed relationships between variables in the domains of body composition [fat-free mass (FFM), fat mass (FM)], metabolism, gastrointestinal hormones, hunger and energy intake. In this Commentary, we review our own and other data, and discuss a new formulation whereby appetite control and energy intake are regulated by energy expenditure. Specifically, we propose that FFM (the largest contributor to resting metabolic rate), but not body mass index or FM, is closely associated with self-determined meal size and daily energy intake. This formulation has implications for understanding weight regulation and the management of obesity.

Travelling waves for a velocity–jump model of cell migration and proliferation

Cell invasion, characterised by moving fronts of cells, is an essential aspect of development, repair and disease. Typically, mathematical models of cell invasion are based on the Fisher–Kolmogorov equation. These traditional parabolic models can not be used to represent experimental measurements of individual cell velocities within the invading population since they imply that information propagates with infinite speed. To overcome this limitation we study combined cell motility and proliferation based on a velocity–jump process where information propagates with finite speed. The model treats the total population of cells as two interacting subpopulations: a subpopulation of left–moving cells, $L(x,t)$, and a subpopulation of right–moving cells, $R(x,t)$. This leads to a system of hyperbolic partial differential equations that includes a turning rate, $\Lambda \ge 0$, describing the rate at which individuals in the population change direction of movement. We present exact travelling wave solutions of the system of partial differential equations for the special case where $\Lambda = 0$ and in the limit that $\Lambda \to \infty$. For intermediate turning rates, $0 < \Lambda < \infty$, we analyse the travelling waves using the phase plane and we demonstrate a transition from smooth monotone travelling waves to smooth nonmonotone travelling waves as $\Lambda$ decreases through a critical value $\Lambda_{crit}$. We conclude by providing a qualitative comparison between the travelling wave solutions of our model and experimental observations of cell invasion. This comparison indicates that the small $\Lambda$ limit produces results that are consistent with experimental observations.

Comment on "Local accumulation times for source, diffusion, and degradation models in two and three dimensions" [J. Chem. Phys. 138, 104121 (2013)]

In a recent paper, Gordon, Muratov, and Shvartsman studied a partial differential equation (PDE) model describing radially symmetric diffusion and degradation in two and three dimensions. They paid particular attention to the local accumulation time (LAT), also known in the literature as the mean action time, which is a spatially dependent timescale that can be used to provide an estimate of the time required for the transient solution to effectively reach steady state. They presented exact results for three-dimensional applications and gave approximate results for the two-dimensional analogue. Here we make two generalizations of Gordon, Muratov, and Shvartsman’s work: (i) we present an exact expression for the LAT in any dimension and (ii) we present an exact expression for the variance of the distribution. The variance provides useful information regarding the spread about the mean that is not captured by the LAT. We conclude by describing further extensions of the model that were not considered by Gordon,Muratov, and Shvartsman. We have found that exact expressions for the LAT can also be derived for these important extensions...

Fixed failure rate ambiguity validation methods for GPS and compass

Ambiguity resolution plays a crucial role in real time kinematic GNSS positioning which gives centimetre precision positioning results if all the ambiguities in each epoch are correctly fixed to integers. However, the incorrectly fixed ambiguities can result in large positioning offset up to several meters without notice. Hence, ambiguity validation is essential to control the ambiguity resolution quality. Currently, the most popular ambiguity validation is ratio test. The criterion of ratio test is often empirically determined. Empirically determined criterion can be dangerous, because a fixed criterion cannot fit all scenarios and does not directly control the ambiguity resolution risk. In practice, depending on the underlying model strength, the ratio test criterion can be too conservative for some model and becomes too risky for others. A more rational test method is to determine the criterion according to the underlying model and user requirement. Miss-detected incorrect integers will lead to a hazardous result, which should be strictly controlled. In ambiguity resolution miss-detected rate is often known as failure rate. In this paper, a fixed failure rate ratio test method is presented and applied in analysis of GPS and Compass positioning scenarios. A fixed failure rate approach is derived from the integer aperture estimation theory, which is theoretically rigorous. The criteria table for ratio test is computed based on extensive data simulations in the approach. The real-time users can determine the ratio test criterion by looking up the criteria table. This method has been applied in medium distance GPS ambiguity resolution but multi-constellation and high dimensional scenarios haven't been discussed so far. In this paper, a general ambiguity validation model is derived based on hypothesis test theory, and fixed failure rate approach is introduced, especially the relationship between ratio test threshold and failure rate is examined. In the last, Factors that influence fixed failure rate approach ratio test threshold is discussed according to extensive data simulation. The result shows that fixed failure rate approach is a more reasonable ambiguity validation method with proper stochastic model.

Humanised xenograft models of bone metastasis revisited : novel insights into species-specific mechanisms of cancer cell osteotropism

The determinants and key mechanisms of cancer cell osteotropism have not been identified, mainly due to the lack of reproducible animal models representing the biological, genetic and clinical features seen in humans. An ideal model should be capable of recapitulating as many steps of the metastatic cascade as possible, thus facilitating the development of prognostic markers and novel therapeutic strategies. Most animal models of bone metastasis still have to be derived experimentally as most syngeneic and transgeneic approaches do not provide a robust skeletal phenotype and do not recapitulate the biological processes seen in humans. The xenotransplantation of human cancer cells or tumour tissue into immunocompromised murine hosts provides the possibility to simulate early and late stages of the human disease. Human bone or tissue-engineered human bone constructs can be implanted into the animal to recapitulate more subtle, species-specific aspects of the mutual interaction between human cancer cells and the human bone microenvironment. Moreover, the replication of the entire "organ" bone makes it possible to analyse the interaction between cancer cells and the haematopoietic niche and to confer at least a partial human immunity to the murine host. This process of humanisation is facilitated by novel immunocompromised mouse strains that allow a high engraftment rate of human cells or tissue. These humanised xenograft models provide an important research tool to study human biological processes of bone metastasis.

The effect of juice composition on the scaling rate and scale composition in sugar mill evaporators

To date, the formation of deposits on heat exchanger surfaces is the least understood problem in the design of heat exchangers for processing industries. Dr East has related the structure of the deposits to solution composition and has developed predictive models for composite fouling of calcium oxalate and silica in sugar factory evaporators.