913 resultados para Probabilistic fire risk analysis
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This is the first comprehensive analysis of the regulation of money market funds in the EU and US at both the theoretical and practical levels. Its unique mutli-disciplinary approach provides a rigorous framework for comparative analysis and expert opinions on complex regulations that will help practitioners with decisions on portfolio management and in solving regulatory compliance issues. The theoretical framework has unique cases and examples and includes checklists to assist with the practice of fund management and legal risk analysis.
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This is the preface to the first comprehensive analysis of the regulation of money market funds in the EU and US at both the theoretical and practical levels. Its unique mutli-disciplinary approach provides a rigorous framework for comparative analysis and expert opinions on complex regulations that will help practitioners with decisions on portfolio management and in solving regulatory compliance issues. The theoretical framework has unique cases and examples and includes checklists to assist with the practice of fund management and legal risk analysis.
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This is the introductory chapter to the first comprehensive analysis of the regulation of money market funds in the EU and US at both the theoretical and practical levels. Its unique mutli-disciplinary approach provides a rigorous framework for comparative analysis and expert opinions on complex regulations that will help practitioners with decisions on portfolio management and in solving regulatory compliance issues. The theoretical framework has unique cases and examples and includes checklists to assist with the practice of fund management and legal risk analysis.
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Water systems in the Sultanate of Oman are inevitably exposed to varied threats and hazards due to both natural and man-made hazards. Natural disasters, especially tropical cyclone Gonu in 2007, cause immense damage to water supply systems in Oman. At the same time water loss from leaks is a major operational problem. This research developed an integrated approach to identify and rank the risks to the water sources, transmission pipelines and distribution networks in Oman and suggests appropriate mitigation measures. The system resilience was evaluated and an emergency response plan for the water supplies developed. The methodology involved mining the data held by the water supply utility for risk and resilience determination and operational data to support calculations of non-revenue water. Risk factors were identified, ranked and scored at a stakeholder workshop and the operational information required was principally gathered from interviews. Finally, an emergency response plan was developed by evaluating the risk and resilience factors. The risk analysis and assessment used a Coarse Risk Analysis (CRA) approach and risk scores were generated using a simple risk matrix based on WHO recommendations. The likelihoods and consequences of a wide range of hazardous events were identified through a key workshop and subsequent questionnaires. The thesis proposes a method of translating the detailed risk evaluations into resilience scores through a methodology used in transportation networks. A water audit indicated that the percentage of NRW in Oman is greater than 35% which is similar to other Gulf countries but high internationally. The principal strategy for managing NRW used in the research was the AWWA water audit method which includes free to use software and was found to be easy to apply in Oman. The research showed that risks to the main desalination processes can be controlled but the risk due to feed water quality might remain high even after implementing mitigation measures because the intake is close to an oil port with a significant risk of oil contamination and algal blooms. The most severe risks to transmission mains were found to be associated with pipe rather than pump failure. The systems in Oman were found to be moderately resilient, the resilience of desalination plants reasonably high but the transmission mains and pumping stations are very vulnerable. The integrated strategy developed in this study has a wide applicability, particularly in the Gulf area, which may have risks from exceptional events and will be experiencing NRW. Other developing countries may also experience such risks but with different magnitudes and the risk evaluation tables could provide a useful format for further work.
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Les logiciels actuels sont de grandes tailles, complexes et critiques. Le besoin de qualité exige beaucoup de tests, ce qui consomme de grandes quantités de ressources durant le développement et la maintenance de ces systèmes. Différentes techniques permettent de réduire les coûts liés aux activités de test. Notre travail s’inscrit dans ce cadre, est a pour objectif d’orienter l’effort de test vers les composants logiciels les plus à risque à l’aide de certains attributs du code source. À travers plusieurs démarches empiriques menées sur de grands logiciels open source, développés avec la technologie orientée objet, nous avons identifié et étudié les métriques qui caractérisent l’effort de test unitaire sous certains angles. Nous avons aussi étudié les liens entre cet effort de test et les métriques des classes logicielles en incluant les indicateurs de qualité. Les indicateurs de qualité sont une métrique synthétique, que nous avons introduite dans nos travaux antérieurs, qui capture le flux de contrôle ainsi que différentes caractéristiques du logiciel. Nous avons exploré plusieurs techniques permettant d’orienter l’effort de test vers des composants à risque à partir de ces attributs de code source, en utilisant des algorithmes d’apprentissage automatique. En regroupant les métriques logicielles en familles, nous avons proposé une approche basée sur l’analyse du risque des classes logicielles. Les résultats que nous avons obtenus montrent les liens entre l’effort de test unitaire et les attributs de code source incluant les indicateurs de qualité, et suggèrent la possibilité d’orienter l’effort de test à l’aide des métriques.
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The predictive capabilities of computational fire models have improved in recent years such that models have become an integral part of many research efforts. Models improve the understanding of the fire risk of materials and may decrease the number of expensive experiments required to assess the fire hazard of a specific material or designed space. A critical component of a predictive fire model is the pyrolysis sub-model that provides a mathematical representation of the rate of gaseous fuel production from condensed phase fuels given a heat flux incident to the material surface. The modern, comprehensive pyrolysis sub-models that are common today require the definition of many model parameters to accurately represent the physical description of materials that are ubiquitous in the built environment. Coupled with the increase in the number of parameters required to accurately represent the pyrolysis of materials is the increasing prevalence in the built environment of engineered composite materials that have never been measured or modeled. The motivation behind this project is to develop a systematic, generalized methodology to determine the requisite parameters to generate pyrolysis models with predictive capabilities for layered composite materials that are common in industrial and commercial applications. This methodology has been applied to four common composites in this work that exhibit a range of material structures and component materials. The methodology utilizes a multi-scale experimental approach in which each test is designed to isolate and determine a specific subset of the parameters required to define a material in the model. Data collected in simultaneous thermogravimetry and differential scanning calorimetry experiments were analyzed to determine the reaction kinetics, thermodynamic properties, and energetics of decomposition for each component of the composite. Data collected in microscale combustion calorimetry experiments were analyzed to determine the heats of complete combustion of the volatiles produced in each reaction. Inverse analyses were conducted on sample temperature data collected in bench-scale tests to determine the thermal transport parameters of each component through degradation. Simulations of quasi-one-dimensional bench-scale gasification tests generated from the resultant models using the ThermaKin modeling environment were compared to experimental data to independently validate the models.
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Este trabalho foi desenvolvido na empresa Amorim & Irmãos, SA e teve dois objectivos fundamentais. O primeiro centrou-se na análise do processo de tratamento de superfície das rolhas, procurando um produto alternativo ao actualmente implementado na empresa e a sua optimização. O segundo objectivo foi a elaboração de um novo método de determinação da absorção em garrafa, que permitisse a sua determinação sem o conhecimento da massa inicial da rolha. Para a concretização do primeiro objectivo foram estudados doze produtos químicos em comparação com o actualmente utilizado, em que o objectivo foi obter-se forças de extracção entre 15 e 20 daN. Após realização do tratamento de superfície para cada produto foram realizados vários testes laboratoriais, nomeadamente: forças de extracção, vedação em tubo, absorção em garrafa, capilaridade, análise de risco à quantidade de produto adicionado e análise de risco ao tempo de distribuição do tratamento. Após análise global dos resultados obtidos verificou-se que o produto T13, embora apresente forças de extracção no limite inferior ao desejado possui uma boa estabilização. Os produtos T5 e T6 são bons alternativos ao produto actualmente implementado (T8), embora seja necessário ter alguns cuidados no seu manuseamento. O produto T5 como foi considerado mau no teste da absorção em garrafa não poderá ser utilizado para mercados mais distantes (EUA, Austrália e África do Sul) devido ao risco de ocorrência de migração de vinho através da rolha de cortiça. O produto T6 como apresentou um comportamento irregular na análise de risco à quantidade de produto adicionado, e na análise de risco à distribuição de produto, deve-se ter muita atenção à quantidade inserida no tambor assim como o tempo de distribuição. Para a concretização do segundo objectivo foi determinada a absorção em garrafa pelo método actual e comparou-se com o novo método. Apesar do desvio padrão ser de aproximadamente 0,85, pode-se afirmar que o novo método de determinação da absorção em garrafa é um método eficaz que pode ser aprovado pela empresa. Desta forma, foi possível solucionar esta questão e permitir ao laboratório de controlo de qualidade determinar a absorção em garrafa de garrafas de vinho provenientes de clientes.
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Tese (Doutorado em Tecnologia Nuclear)
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In quantitative risk analysis, the problem of estimating small threshold exceedance probabilities and extreme quantiles arise ubiquitously in bio-surveillance, economics, natural disaster insurance actuary, quality control schemes, etc. A useful way to make an assessment of extreme events is to estimate the probabilities of exceeding large threshold values and extreme quantiles judged by interested authorities. Such information regarding extremes serves as essential guidance to interested authorities in decision making processes. However, in such a context, data are usually skewed in nature, and the rarity of exceedance of large threshold implies large fluctuations in the distribution's upper tail, precisely where the accuracy is desired mostly. Extreme Value Theory (EVT) is a branch of statistics that characterizes the behavior of upper or lower tails of probability distributions. However, existing methods in EVT for the estimation of small threshold exceedance probabilities and extreme quantiles often lead to poor predictive performance in cases where the underlying sample is not large enough or does not contain values in the distribution's tail. In this dissertation, we shall be concerned with an out of sample semiparametric (SP) method for the estimation of small threshold probabilities and extreme quantiles. The proposed SP method for interval estimation calls for the fusion or integration of a given data sample with external computer generated independent samples. Since more data are used, real as well as artificial, under certain conditions the method produces relatively short yet reliable confidence intervals for small exceedance probabilities and extreme quantiles.
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Tese (Doutorado em Tecnologia Nuclear)
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Mortality of young Pacific oysters Crassostrea gigas associated with the ostreid herpesvirus 1 (OsHV-1) is occurring worldwide. Here, we examined for the first time the effect of salinity on OsHV-1 transmission and disease-related mortality of C. gigas, as well as salinity-related effects on the pathogen itself. To obtain donors for OsHV-1 transmission, we transferred laboratory-raised oysters to an estuary during a disease outbreak and then back to the laboratory. Oysters that tested OsHV-1 positive were placed in seawater tanks (35‰, 21°C). Water from these tanks was used to infect naïve oysters in 2 experimental setups: (1) oysters acclimated or non-acclimated to a salinity of 10, 15, 25 and 35‰ and (2) oysters acclimated to a salinity of 25‰; the latter were exposed to OsHV-1 water diluted to a salinity of 10 or 25‰. The survival of oysters exposed to OsHV-1 water and acclimated to a salinity of 10‰ was >95%, compared to only 43 to 73% survival in oysters acclimated to higher salinities (Expt 1), reflecting differences in the levels of OsHV-1 DNA and viral gene expression (Expts 1 and 2). However, the survival of their non-acclimated counterparts was only 23% (Expt 2), and the levels of OsHV-1 DNA and the expression of 4 viral genes were low (Expt 1). Thus, OsHV-1 may not have been the ultimate cause of mortality in non-acclimated oysters weakened by a salinity shock. It appears that reducing disease risk by means of low salinity is unlikely in the field.
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Part 17: Risk Analysis
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Increased occurrence of drought and dry spells during the growing season have resulted in increased interest in protection of tropical water catchment areas. In Mgeta, a water catchment area in the Uluguru Mountains in Tanzania, water used for vegetable and fruit production is provided through canals from the Uluguru South Forest Reserve. The clearing of forest land for cultivation in the steep slopes in the area is causing severe land degradation, which is threatening the water catchment area, livelihoods, and food security of the local communities, as well as the major population centers in the lowlands. In this paper, the economic performance of a traditional cropping-livestock system with East African (EA)-goats and pigs and extensive vegetable production is compared with a more sustainable and environmentally friendly crop-dairy goat production system. A linear programming (LP) crop-livestock model, maximizing farm income considering the environmental constraints in the area was applied for studying the economic performance of dairy goats in the production system. The model was worked out for the rainy and dry seasons and the analysis was conducted for a basic scenario representing the current situation, based on the variability in the 30 years period from 1982-2012, and in a scenario of both lower crop yields and increased crop variability due to climate change. Data obtained from a sample of 60 farmers that were interviewed using a questionnaire was used to develop and parameterize the model. The study found that in the steep slopes of the area, a crop-dairy goat system with extensive use of grass and multipurpose trees (MPTs) would do better than the traditional vegetable gardening with the EA goat production system. The crop-dairy goat system was superior both in the basic and in a climate change scenario since the yield variation of the grass and MPTs system was less affected compared to vegetable crops due to more tree cover and the use of perennial grasses. However, the goat milk production in the area was constrained by inadequate feeding and lack of an appropriate breeding program. Hence, farmers should enhance goat milk production by supplementing with more concentrate feed and by implementing goat-breeding principles. Moreover, policy measures to promote such a development are briefly discussed.