Using Bayesian networks with rule extraction to infer the risk of weed infestation in a corn-crop

This paper describes the modeling of a weed infestation risk inference system that implements a collaborative inference scheme based on rules extracted from two Bayesian network classifiers. The first Bayesian classifier infers a categorical variable value for the weed-crop competitiveness using as input categorical variables for the total density of weeds and corresponding proportions of narrow and broad-leaved weeds. The inferred categorical variable values for the weed-crop competitiveness along with three other categorical variables extracted from estimated maps for the weed seed production and weed coverage are then used as input for a second Bayesian network classifier to infer categorical variables values for the risk of infestation. Weed biomass and yield loss data samples are used to learn the probability relationship among the nodes of the first and second Bayesian classifiers in a supervised fashion, respectively. For comparison purposes, two types of Bayesian network structures are considered, namely an expert-based Bayesian classifier and a naive Bayes classifier. The inference system focused on the knowledge interpretation by translating a Bayesian classifier into a set of classification rules. The results obtained for the risk inference in a corn-crop field are presented and discussed. (C) 2009 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

A classification methodology for the risk of weed infestation using fuzzy logic

Despite modern weed control practices, weeds continue to be a threat to agricultural production. Considering the variability of weeds, a classification methodology for the risk of infestation in agricultural zones using fuzzy logic is proposed. The inputs for the classification are attributes extracted from estimated maps for weed seed production and weed coverage using kriging and map analysis and from the percentage of surface infested by grass weeds, in order to account for the presence of weed species with a high rate of development and proliferation. The output for the classification predicts the risk of infestation of regions of the field for the next crop. The risk classification methodology described in this paper integrates analysis techniques which may help to reduce costs and improve weed control practices. Results for the risk classification of the infestation in a maize crop field are presented. To illustrate the effectiveness of the proposed system, the risk of infestation over the entire field is checked against the yield loss map estimated by kriging and also with the average yield loss estimated from a hyperbolic model.

GIS applied to geotechnical and environmental risk management in a Brazilian oil pipeline

The paper presents the development of a decision support system for the management of geotechnical and environmental risks in oil pipelines using a geographical information system. The system covers a 48.5 km long section of the So Paulo to Brasilia (OSBRA) oil pipeline, which crosses three municipalities in the northeast region of the So Paulo state (Brazil) and represents an area of 205.8 km(2). The spatial database was created using geo-processing procedures, surface and intrusive investigations and geotechnical reports. The risk assessment was based mainly on qualitative models (relative numeric weights and multicriteria decision analysis) and considered pluvial erosion, slope movements, soil corrosion and third party activities. The maps were produced at a scale of 1:10,000.

Fuzzy risk index for power transformer failures due to external short-circuits

A novel methodology to assess the risk of power transformer failures caused by external faults, such as short-circuit, taking the paper insulation condition into account, is presented. The risk index is obtained by contrasting the insulation paper condition with the probability that the transformer withstands the short-circuit current flowing along the winding during an external fault. In order to assess the risk, this probability and the value of the degree of polymerization of the insulating paper are regarded as inputs of a type-2 fuzzy logic system (T2-FLS), which computes the fuzzy risk level. A Monte Carlo simulation has been used to find the survival function of the currents flowing through the transformer winding during a single-phase or a three-phase short-circuit. The Roy Billinton Test System and a real power system have been used to test the results. (C) 2008 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Risk-based decision making method for maintenance policy selection of thermal power plant equipment

This study presents a decision-making method for maintenance policy selection of power plants equipment. The method is based on risk analysis concepts. The method first step consists in identifying critical equipment both for power plant operational performance and availability based on risk concepts. The second step involves the proposal of a potential maintenance policy that could be applied to critical equipment in order to increase its availability. The costs associated with each potential maintenance policy must be estimated, including the maintenance costs and the cost of failure that measures the critical equipment failure consequences for the power plant operation. Once the failure probabilities and the costs of failures are estimated, a decision-making procedure is applied to select the best maintenance policy. The decision criterion is to minimize the equipment cost of failure, considering the costs and likelihood of occurrence of failure scenarios. The method is applied to the analysis of a lubrication oil system used in gas turbines journal bearings. The turbine has more than 150 MW nominal output, installed in an open cycle thermoelectric power plant. A design modification with the installation of a redundant oil pump is proposed for lubricating oil system availability improvement. (C) 2009 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Optimal irrigation depth for bean crops considering water constraints and farmer`s risk aversion level

Nowadays, the rising competition for the use of water and environmental resources with consequent restrictions for farmers should change the paradigm in terms of irrigation concepts, or rather, in order to attain economical efficiency other than to supply water requirement for the crop. Therefore, taking into account the social and economical role of bean activity in Brazil, as well as the risk inherent to crop due to its high sensibility to both deficit and excessive water, the optimization methods regarding to irrigation management have become more interesting and essential. This study intends to present a way to determine the optimal water supply, considering different combinations between desired bean yield and level of risk, bringing as a result a graph with the former associated with the latter, depending on different water depths.

ECONOMICAL OCCUPATION OF AGRICULTURAL AREA OF PIRACICABA (SAO PAULO STATE, BRAZIL), INCLUDING RISK THROUGH LINEAR PROGRAMMING

The economic occupation of an area of 500 ha for Piracicaba was studied with the irrigated cultures of maize, tomato, sugarcane and beans, having used models of deterministic linear programming and linear programming including risk for the Target-Motad model, where two situations had been analyzed. In the deterministic model the area was the restrictive factor and the water was not restrictive for none of the tested situations. For the first situation the gotten maximum income was of R$ 1,883,372.87 and for the second situation it was of R$ 1,821,772.40. In the model including risk a producer that accepts risk can in the first situation get the maximum income of R$ 1,883,372. 87 with a minimum risk of R$ 350 year(-1), and in the second situation R$ 1,821,772.40 with a minimum risk of R$ 40 year(-1). Already a producer averse to the risk can get in the first situation a maximum income of R$ 1,775,974.81 with null risk and for the second situation R$ 1.707.706, 26 with null risk, both without water restriction. These results stand out the importance of the inclusion of the risk in supplying alternative occupations to the producer, allowing to a producer taking of decision considered the risk aversion and the pretension of income.

Nitrogen, phosphorus and potassium dose effect in the graft box of lemon tree (of the family Rutaceae) nutrition and production.

Nitrogen, phosphorus and potassium dose effect in the graft box of lemon tree (of the family Rutaceae) nutrition and production. The aim of the study was to evaluate the graft box of lemon tree (of the family Rutaceae) nutritional state and its components of growth in function of nitrogen, phosphorus and potassium dose by fertilization. The experimental outlining was entirely made casually in factorial scheme 3(3) + 1, being 3 factors (nitrogen, phosphorus and potassium - NPK), 3 doses and in evidence (without fertilization), with 3 repetitions. The experimental milt was constituted by two tubes of 2,8 cm diameter and 12,3 cm high with a graft box (Hipobioto) of lemon tree (of the family Rutaceae) in each tube. The doses used were constituted by doses of N (460; 920 e 18,10 mg dm(-3)), P (50; 100 e 200 mg dm(-3)) and K (395; 790 e 1580 mg dm(-3)). The fertilization with N and K was carried out by fertirrigations and the P added to the substract of Pinus rind and vermiculite before the seeding. when the plants were 133 days after the germination they were subdivided in radicular system and air part for the determinations of the dry matter mass, height, foliar area, stem diameter and contents of nutrients. The N, K and P doses of 920 mg dm(-3), 790 mg dm(-3), 100 mg dm(-3), respectively, were enough for the suitable development of the graft box of lemon tree (of the family Rutaceae) in tubes.

Reclaimed wastewater: Effects on citrus nutrition

The effects of irrigation with reclaimed wastewater (RWW) were compared with well water (WW) on citrus (Citrus paradisi Macfad. X Citrus aurantium L) nutrition. The deviation from the optimum percentage (DOP) index of macro- and micro-nutrients were used to evaluate the nutritional status: optimal (DOP = 0), deficiency (DOP < 0) or excess (DOP > 0). After 11 years of RWW irrigation the influence on nutrient concentration in plants decreased in the order: B > Zn > Mn = Ca > Cu > Mg > P > K. Reclaimed wastewater irritation positively affected citrus nutrition as it rendered the concentration of macronutrients, i.e. P, Ca, and K. closer to their optimum levels (Sigma DOP(macro) = 7). However micro-nutrients tended to be excessive in plants (EDOP(micro) = 753) due to imbalanced supply of these elements in the RWW, particularly, for B and Cu. Citrus groves with long-term RWW irrigation may exercised caution in monitoring concentrations of B and Cu to avoid plant toxicity and soil quality degradation. (C) 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Nutrition in bean plants and anthracnose intensity in function of silicon and copper application.

Nutrition in bean plants and anthracnose intensity in function of silicon and copper application. The objective of this work was to evaluate the effect of calcium silicate and copper sulfate on anthracnose intensity and nutrition of bean plants. The experiment was conducted using an experimental design in randomized blocks following a 4 x 4 factorial arrangement , (four levels of calcium silicate and four levels of copper sulfate) and two additional treatments (plants without inoculation and plants sprinkled with Benomyl). Four evaluations of the incidence and severity of anthracnose were done, in addition to measuring, total leaf area. At the end of the evaluations, incidence: and data were integrated over time, obtaining the area under disease progress curve (AUDPC). Contents of N, P, K, Ca, Mg, B, Cu, Fe, Mn, Zn, Si and lignin were determined in the aerial Part. A linear decrease of the intensity AUDPC was observed with the increase of the doses of calcium silicate. The severity AUDPC was influenced by the doses of copper, obtaining a reduction of 35% on the higher dosage. The supply of silicon and copper altered the content of the K, mg, S, Zn, Ca and Si in the aerial part of the bean plants.

Calcium: magnesium ratio in amendments of soil acidity: nutrition and initial development of corn plants in a Humic Alic Cambisol

The variation in the Ca:Mg ratio in amendments used to neutralize soil acidity is one way of altering the availability of those nutrients to the plants in acid soils. The objective of the work was to evaluate the effect of different proportions of calcium and magnesium in the form of CaCO(3) and MgCO(3) Oil the nutrient uptake, and initial production of dry matter by corn plants. The study was carried out in greenhouse conditions, in Lages, SC, with a completely randomized experimental design, with three replications. The treatments were the application of equivalent to 21.0 t ha(-1) of lime, using mixtures of CaCO(3) and MgCO(3) in several proportions to obtain different Ca:Mg ratios (1: 1, 2:1, 4:1, 8:1, 16:1 and 32:1), on a Humic Alic Cambisol, with 310 g kg(-1) of clay. The application of treatments caused the following Ca:Mg ratios in the CEC: 1. 1: 1, 2.1:1, 4.0:1, 8.1:1, 16.4:1 and 31.8:1. The high concentrations of exchangeable Ca in soil caused by addition of lime with high Ca content inhibited the uptake of Mg and K by the corn plants. The increase in the soil Ca:Mg ratio reduced the dry matter production and height of plants in the initial stage of development.

Influence of magnesium status and magnesium intake on the blood glucose control in patients with type 2 diabetes

Background & aims: This study was undertaken to assess magnesium intake and magnesium status in patients with type 2 diabetes, and to identify the parameters that best predict alterations in fasting glucose and plasma magnesium. Methods: A cross-sectional study was carried out in patients with type 2 diabetes (n = 51; 53.6 +/- 10.5 y) selected within the inclusion factors, at the University Hospital Onofre Lopes. Magnesium intake was assessed by three 24-h recalls. Urine, plasma and erythrocytes magnesium, fasting and 2-h postprandial glucose, HbA1, microalbuminuria, proteinuria, and serum and urine creatinine were measured. Results: Mean magnesium intake (9.37 +/- 1.76 mmol/d), urine magnesium (2.80 +/- 1.51 mmol/d), plasma magnesium (0.71 +/- 0.08 mmol/L) and erythrocyte magnesium (1.92 +/- 0.23 mmol/L) levels were low. Seventy-seven percent of participants presented one or more magnesium status parameters below the cut-off points of 3.00 mmol/L for urine, 0.75 mmol/L for plasma and 1.65 mmol/L for erythrocytes. Subjects presented poor blood glucose control with fasting glucose of 8.1 +/- 3.7 mmol/L, 2-h postprandial glucose of 11.1 +/- 5.1 mmol/L, and HbA1 of 11.4 +/- 3.0%. The parameters that influenced fasting glucose were urine, plasma and dietary magnesium, while plasma magnesium was influenced by creatinine clearance. Conclusions: Magnesium status was influenced by kidney depuration and was altered in patients with type 2 diabetes, and magnesium showed to play an important role in blood glucose control. (C) 2011 Elsevier Ltd and European Society for Clinical Nutrition and Metabolism. All rights reserved.

Biomarkers of metabolic syndrome and its relationship with the zinc nutritional status in obese women

Introduction: Obesity is a chronic disease that induces risk factors for metabolic syndrome and, is associated with disturbances in the metabolism of the zinc. Therefore, the aim of this study was to investigate the existence of relationship between the biomarkers of metabolic syndrome and the zinc nutricional status in obese women. Method: Seventy-three premenopausal women, aged between 20 and 50 years, were divided into two groups: case group, composed of obese (n = 37) and control group, composed of no obese (n = 36). The assessment of the body mass index and waist circumference were carried out using anthropometric measurements. The plasmatic and erythrocytary zinc were analyzed by method atomic absorption spectrophotometry (lambda=213.9 nm). Results: In the study, body mass index and waist circumference were higher in obese women than control group (p < 0.05). The mean plasmatic zinc was 72.2 +/- 9.0 mu g/dl in obese women and 73.4 +/- 8.5 mu g/dl in control group (p > 0.05). The mean erythrocytary zinc was 36.4 +/- 15.0 mu g/gHb and 45.4 +/- 14.3 mu g/gHb in the obese and controls, respectively (p < 0.05). Regression analysis showed that the body mass index (t=-2.85) and waist circumference (t=-2.37) have a negative relationship only with the erythrocytary zinc (R(2)=0.32, p < 0.05). Conclusions: The study shows that there are alterations in biochemical parameters of zinc in obese women, with low zinc concentrations in erythrocytes. Regression analysis demonstrates that the erythrocytary zinc is influenced by biomarkers of the metabolic syndrome, presenting an inverse relationship with the waist circumference and body mass index.

Associations between glutathione peroxidase-1 Pro198Leu polymorphism, selenium status, and DNA damage levels in obese women after consumption of Brazil nuts

Objective: Alterations in selenium (Se) status may result in suboptimal amounts of selenoproteins, which have been associated with increased oxidative stress levels. The Pro198Leu polymorphism at the glutathione peroxidase-1 (GPx1) gene is supposed to be functional. The response of Se status, GPx activity, and levels of DNA damage to a Se supplementation trial between the genotypes related to that polymorphism was investigated. Methods: A randomized trial was conducted with 37 morbidly obese women. Participants consumed one Brazil nut, which provided approximately 290 mu g of Se a day, for 8 wk. Blood Se concentrations, erythrocyte GPx activity, and DNA damage levels were measured at baseline and at 8 wk. The results were compared by genotypes. Results: The genotype frequencies were 0.487, 0.378, and 0.135 for Pro/Pro (the wild-type genotype), Pro/Leu, and Leu/Leu, respectively. At baseline, 100% of the subjects were Se deficient, and after the supplementation, there was an improvement in plasma Se (P < 0.001 for Pro/Pro and Pro/Leu, P < 0.05 for Leu/Leu), erythrocyte Se (P = 0.00 for Pro/Pro and Pro/Leu, P < 0.05 for Leu/Leu), and GPx activity (P = 0.00 for Pro/Pro, P < 0.00001 for Pro/Leu, P < 0.001 for Leu/Leu). In addition, the Pro/Pro group showed a decrease in DNA damage after Brazil nut consumption compared with baseline (P < 0.005), and those levels were higher in Leu/Leu subjects compared with those with the wild-type genotype (P < 0.05). Conclusion: Consumption of one unit of Brazil nuts daily effectively increases Se status and increases GPx activity in obese women, regardless of GPx1 Pro198Leu polymorphism. However, the evaluated biomarkers showed distinct results in response to the supplementation when the polymorphism was considered. (c) 2011 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Brazil nut ingestion increased plasma selenium but had minimal effects on lipids, apolipoproteins, and high-density lipoprotein function in human subjects

The Brazil nut (Bertholletia excelsa) of the Amazon region is consumed worldwide. It is rich in both monounsaturated fatty acids and polyunsaturated fatty acids and is known for its high selenium content. This study tested the hypothesis whether the consumption of this nut could affect the plasma lipids and apolipoproteins and some functional properties of the antiatherogenic high-density lipoprotein (HDL). Fifteen normolipidemic subjects aged 27.3 +/- 3.9 years and with body mass index of 23.8 +/- 2.8 kg/m(2) consumed 45 g of Brazil nuts per day during a 15-day period. On days 0 and 15, blood was collected for biochemical analysis, determination of HDL particle size, paraoxonase 1 activity, and lipid transfer from a lipoprotein-like nanoparticle to the HDL fraction. Brazil nut ingestion did not alter HDL, low-density lipoprotein cholesterol, triacylglycerols, apolipoprotein A-1, or apolipoprotein B concentrations. HDL particle diameter and the activity of antioxidative paraoxonase 1, mostly found in the HDL fraction, Were also unaffected. Supplementation increased the reception of cholesteryl esters (P <.05) by the HDL yet did not alter the reception of phospholipids, free cholesterol, or triacylglycerols. As expected, plasma selenium was significantly increased. However, the consumption of Brazil nuts for short duration by normolipidemic subjects in comparable amounts to those tested for other nuts did not alter serum lipid profile. The only alteration in HDL function was the increase in cholesteryl ester transfer. This latter finding may be beneficial because it would improve the nonatherogenic reverse cholesterol transport pathway. (c) 2008 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.