Benchmarking framework to measure extent of ICT adoption for building project management

This project discusses a component of the research study conducted to provide construction organizations with a generic benchmarking framework to assess their extent of information communication technology (ICT) adoption for building project management processes. It defines benchmarking and discusses objectives of the required benchmarking framework and development of the framework. The study focuses on ICT adoption by small and medium enterprises (SMEs) in the construction industry and with respect to SMEs it is important to understand processes, their indicators, and measures in the local context. Structure of the suggested benchmarking framework has been derived after extensive literature survey and a questionnaire survey conducted in the Indian construction industry. The suggested benchmarking process is an iterative process divided into four stages. It can be implemented at organization and industry levels for rating the construction organizations for ICT adoption and performance measurement. The framework has a generic structure and can be generalized and applied for other countries with due considerations.

A conceptual framework for ethical decision making in project procurement

There is a lack of research which identifies the role of the public-sector client in relation to ethical practice in plan procurement. This paper discusses a conceptual framework for ethical decision making in project procurement, focusing on public sector clients within the Malaysian construction industry. A framework is proposed to ensure that effective ethical decision making strategies are deployed to ensure that plan procurement is carried out with a transparent process so that the public sector clients are able to adopt. The conceptual framework adopts various factors that contribute to ethical decision making at the early stage of procurement and consists of the procurement system, individual factors, project characteristics, and organizational culture as the internal factors and professional code of conduct and government policies as the external factors. This framework rationalizes the relationships between systems, psychology and organizational theory to form an innovative understanding of making ethical decisions in plan procurement. It is expected that this proposed framework will be useful as a foundation for identifying the factors that contribute to ethical decision making focusing on the planning stage of procurement process.

A Bayesian approach for place recognition

This paper presents a robust place recognition algorithm for mobile robots. The framework proposed combines nonlinear dimensionality reduction, nonlinear regression under noise, and variational Bayesian learning to create consistent probabilistic representations of places from images. These generative models are learnt from a few images and used for multi-class place recognition where classification is computed from a set of feature-vectors. Recognition can be performed in near real-time and accounts for complexity such as changes in illumination, occlusions and blurring. The algorithm was tested with a mobile robot in indoor and outdoor environments with sequences of 1579 and 3820 images respectively. This framework has several potential applications such as map building, autonomous navigation, search-rescue tasks and context recognition.

Hierarchical Bayesian models for estimating the extent of plant pest invasions

Plant biosecurity requires statistical tools to interpret field surveillance data in order to manage pest incursions that threaten crop production and trade. Ultimately, management decisions need to be based on the probability that an area is infested or free of a pest. Current informal approaches to delimiting pest extent rely upon expert ecological interpretation of presence / absence data over space and time. Hierarchical Bayesian models provide a cohesive statistical framework that can formally integrate the available information on both pest ecology and data. The overarching method involves constructing an observation model for the surveillance data, conditional on the hidden extent of the pest and uncertain detection sensitivity. The extent of the pest is then modelled as a dynamic invasion process that includes uncertainty in ecological parameters. Modelling approaches to assimilate this information are explored through case studies on spiralling whitefly, Aleurodicus dispersus and red banded mango caterpillar, Deanolis sublimbalis. Markov chain Monte Carlo simulation is used to estimate the probable extent of pests, given the observation and process model conditioned by surveillance data. Statistical methods, based on time-to-event models, are developed to apply hierarchical Bayesian models to early detection programs and to demonstrate area freedom from pests. The value of early detection surveillance programs is demonstrated through an application to interpret surveillance data for exotic plant pests with uncertain spread rates. The model suggests that typical early detection programs provide a moderate reduction in the probability of an area being infested but a dramatic reduction in the expected area of incursions at a given time. Estimates of spiralling whitefly extent are examined at local, district and state-wide scales. The local model estimates the rate of natural spread and the influence of host architecture, host suitability and inspector efficiency. These parameter estimates can support the development of robust surveillance programs. Hierarchical Bayesian models for the human-mediated spread of spiralling whitefly are developed for the colonisation of discrete cells connected by a modified gravity model. By estimating dispersal parameters, the model can be used to predict the extent of the pest over time. An extended model predicts the climate restricted distribution of the pest in Queensland. These novel human-mediated movement models are well suited to demonstrating area freedom at coarse spatio-temporal scales. At finer scales, and in the presence of ecological complexity, exploratory models are developed to investigate the capacity for surveillance information to estimate the extent of red banded mango caterpillar. It is apparent that excessive uncertainty about observation and ecological parameters can impose limits on inference at the scales required for effective management of response programs. The thesis contributes novel statistical approaches to estimating the extent of pests and develops applications to assist decision-making across a range of plant biosecurity surveillance activities. Hierarchical Bayesian modelling is demonstrated as both a useful analytical tool for estimating pest extent and a natural investigative paradigm for developing and focussing biosecurity programs.

Multi-step ahead direct prediction for the machine condition prognosis using regression trees and neuro-fuzzy systems

This paper presents an approach to predict the operating conditions of machine based on classification and regression trees (CART) and adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system (ANFIS) in association with direct prediction strategy for multi-step ahead prediction of time series techniques. In this study, the number of available observations and the number of predicted steps are initially determined by using false nearest neighbor method and auto mutual information technique, respectively. These values are subsequently utilized as inputs for prediction models to forecast the future values of the machines’ operating conditions. The performance of the proposed approach is then evaluated by using real trending data of low methane compressor. A comparative study of the predicted results obtained from CART and ANFIS models is also carried out to appraise the prediction capability of these models. The results show that the ANFIS prediction model can track the change in machine conditions and has the potential for using as a tool to machine fault prognosis.

A conceptual decision-making framework for the delivery of innovative change in organisations

Research found that today’s organisations are increasingly aware of the potential barriers and perceived challenges associated with the successful delivery of change — including cultural and sub-cultural indifferences; financial constraints; restricted timelines; insufficient senior management support; fragmented key stakeholder commitment; and inadequate training. The delivery and application of Innovative Change (see glossary) within a construction industry organisation tends to require a certain level of ‘readiness’. This readiness is the combination of an organisation’s ability to part from undertakings that may be old, traditional, or inefficient; and then being able to readily adopt a procedure or initiative which is new, improved, or more efficient. Despite the construction industry’s awareness of the various threats and opportunities associated with the delivery of change, research found little attention is currently given to develop a ‘decision-making framework’ that comprises measurable elements (dynamics) that may assist in more accurately determining an organisation’s level of readiness or ability to deliver innovative change. To resolve this, an initial Background Literature Review in 2004 identified six such dynamics, those of Change, Innovation, Implementation, Culture, Leadership, and Training and Education, which were then hypothesised to be key components of a ‘Conceptual Decision-making Framework’ (CDF) for delivering innovative change within an organisation. To support this hypothesis, a second (more extensive) Literature Review was undertaken from late 2007 to mid 2009. A Delphi study was embarked on in June 2008, inviting fifteen building and construction industry members to form a panel and take part in a Delphi study. The selection criterion required panel members to have senior positions (manager and above) within a recognised field or occupation, and to have experience, understanding and / or knowledge in the process of delivering change within organisations. The final panel comprised nine representatives from private and public industry organisations and tertiary / research and development (R&D) universities. The Delphi study developed, distributed and collated two rounds of survey questionnaires over a four-month period, comprising open-ended and closed questions (referred to as factors). The first round of Delphi survey questionnaires were distributed to the panel in August 2008, asking them to rate the relevancy of the six hypothesised dynamics. In early September 2008, round-one responses were returned, analysed and documented. From this, an additional three dynamics were identified and confirmed by the panel as being highly relevant during the decision-making process when delivering innovative change within an organisation. The additional dynamics (‘Knowledge-sharing and Management’; ‘Business Process Requirements’; and ‘Life-cycle Costs’) were then added to the first six dynamics and used to populate the second (final) Delphi survey questionnaire. This was distributed to the same nine panel members in October 2008, this time asking them to rate the relevancy of all nine dynamics. In November 2008, round-two responses were returned, analysed, summarised and documented. Final results confirmed stability in responses and met Delphi study guidelines. The final contribution is twofold. Firstly, findings confirm all nine dynamics as key components of the proposed CDF for delivering innovative change within an organisation. Secondly, the future development and testing of an ‘Innovative Change Delivery Process’ (ICDP) is proposed, one that is underpinned by an ‘Innovative Change Decision-making Framework’ (ICDF), an ‘Innovative Change Delivery Analysis’ (ICDA) program, and an ‘Innovative Change Delivery Guide’ (ICDG).

The Bayesian conditional independence model for measurement error: applications in ecology

The measurement error model is a well established statistical method for regression problems in medical sciences, although rarely used in ecological studies. While the situations in which it is appropriate may be less common in ecology, there are instances in which there may be benefits in its use for prediction and estimation of parameters of interest. We have chosen to explore this topic using a conditional independence model in a Bayesian framework using a Gibbs sampler, as this gives a great deal of flexibility, allowing us to analyse a number of different models without losing generality. Using simulations and two examples, we show how the conditional independence model can be used in ecology, and when it is appropriate.

A Bayesian analysis of an agricultural field trial with three spatial dimensions

Modern technology now has the ability to generate large datasets over space and time. Such data typically exhibit high autocorrelations over all dimensions. The field trial data motivating the methods of this paper were collected to examine the behaviour of traditional cropping and to determine a cropping system which could maximise water use for grain production while minimising leakage below the crop root zone. They consist of moisture measurements made at 15 depths across 3 rows and 18 columns, in the lattice framework of an agricultural field. Bayesian conditional autoregressive (CAR) models are used to account for local site correlations. Conditional autoregressive models have not been widely used in analyses of agricultural data. This paper serves to illustrate the usefulness of these models in this field, along with the ease of implementation in WinBUGS, a freely available software package. The innovation is the fitting of separate conditional autoregressive models for each depth layer, the ‘layered CAR model’, while simultaneously estimating depth profile functions for each site treatment. Modelling interest also lay in how best to model the treatment effect depth profiles, and in the choice of neighbourhood structure for the spatial autocorrelation model. The favoured model fitted the treatment effects as splines over depth, and treated depth, the basis for the regression model, as measured with error, while fitting CAR neighbourhood models by depth layer. It is hierarchical, with separate onditional autoregressive spatial variance components at each depth, and the fixed terms which involve an errors-in-measurement model treat depth errors as interval-censored measurement error. The Bayesian framework permits transparent specification and easy comparison of the various complex models compared.

Condition deterioration prediction of bridge elements using Dynamic Bayesian Networks (DBNs)

The ability of bridge deterioration models to predict future condition provides significant advantages in improving the effectiveness of maintenance decisions. This paper proposes a novel model using Dynamic Bayesian Networks (DBNs) for predicting the condition of bridge elements. The proposed model improves prediction results by being able to handle, deterioration dependencies among different bridge elements, the lack of full inspection histories, and joint considerations of both maintenance actions and environmental effects. With Bayesian updating capability, different types of data and information can be utilised as inputs. Expert knowledge can be used to deal with insufficient data as a starting point. The proposed model established a flexible basis for bridge systems deterioration modelling so that other models and Bayesian approaches can be further developed in one platform. A steel bridge main girder was chosen to validate the proposed model.

Developing a framework for planning healthy communities : the Logan Beaudesert health decision support system

In the last few decades, the focus on building healthy communities has grown significantly (Ashton, 2009). There is growing evidence that new approaches to planning are required to address the challenges faced by contemporary communities. These approaches need to be based on timely access to local information and collaborative planning processes (Murray, 2006; Scotch & Parmanto, 2006; Ashton, 2009; Kazda et al., 2009). However, there is little research to inform the methods that can support this type of responsive, local, collaborative and consultative health planning (Northridge et al., 2003). Some research justifies the use of decision support systems (DSS) as a tool to support planning for healthy communities. DSS have been found to increase collaboration between stakeholders and communities, improve the accuracy and quality of the decision-making process, and improve the availability of data and information for health decision-makers (Nobre et al., 1997; Cromley & McLafferty, 2002; Waring et al., 2005). Geographic information systems (GIS) have been suggested as an innovative method by which to implement DSS because they promote new ways of thinking about evidence and facilitate a broader understanding of communities. Furthermore, literature has indicated that online environments can have a positive impact on decision-making by enabling access to information by a broader audience (Kingston et al., 2001). However, only limited research has examined the implementation and impact of online DSS in the health planning field. Previous studies have emphasised the lack of effective information management systems and an absence of frameworks to guide the way in which information is used to promote informed decisions in health planning. It has become imperative to develop innovative approaches, frameworks and methods to support health planning. Thus, to address these identified gaps in the knowledge, this study aims to develop a conceptual planning framework for creating healthy communities and examine the impact of DSS in the Logan Beaudesert area. Specifically, the study aims to identify the key elements and domains of information that are needed to develop healthy communities, to develop a conceptual planning framework for creating healthy communities, to collaboratively develop and implement an online GIS-based Health DSS (i.e., HDSS), and to examine the impact of the HDSS on local decision-making processes. The study is based on a real-world case study of a community-based initiative that was established to improve public health outcomes and promote new ways of addressing chronic disease. The study involved the development of an online GIS-based health decision support system (HDSS), which was applied in the Logan Beaudesert region of Queensland, Australia. A planning framework was developed to account for the way in which information could be organised to contribute to a healthy community. The decision support system was developed within a unique settings-based initiative Logan Beaudesert Health Coalition (LBHC) designed to plan and improve the health capacity of Logan Beaudesert area in Queensland, Australia. This setting provided a suitable platform to apply a participatory research design to the development and implementation of the HDSS. Therefore, the HDSS was a pilot study examined the impact of this collaborative process, and the subsequent implementation of the HDSS on the way decision-making was perceived across the LBHC. As for the method, based on a systematic literature review, a comprehensive planning framework for creating healthy communities has been developed. This was followed by using a mixed method design, data were collected through both qualitative and quantitative methods. Specifically, data were collected by adopting a participatory action research (PAR) approach (i.e., PAR intervention) that informed the development and conceptualisation of the HDSS. A pre- and post-design was then used to determine the impact of the HDSS on decision-making. The findings of this study revealed a meaningful framework for organising information to guide planning for healthy communities. This conceptual framework provided a comprehensive system within which to organise existing data. The PAR process was useful in engaging stakeholders and decision-making in the development and implementation of the online GIS-based DSS. Through three PAR cycles, this study resulted in heightened awareness of online GIS-based DSS and openness to its implementation. It resulted in the development of a tailored system (i.e., HDSS) that addressed the local information and planning needs of the LBHC. In addition, the implementation of the DSS resulted in improved decision- making and greater satisfaction with decisions within the LBHC. For example, the study illustrated the culture in which decisions were made before and after the PAR intervention and what improvements have been observed after the application of the HDSS. In general, the findings indicated that decision-making processes are not merely informed (consequent of using the HDSS tool), but they also enhance the overall sense of ‗collaboration‘ in the health planning practice. For example, it was found that PAR intervention had a positive impact on the way decisions were made. The study revealed important features of the HDSS development and implementation process that will contribute to future research. Thus, the overall findings suggest that the HDSS is an effective tool, which would play an important role in the future for significantly improving the health planning practice.

Bayesian hierarchical analysis on crash prediction models

Traditional crash prediction models, such as generalized linear regression models, are incapable of taking into account the multilevel data structure, which extensively exists in crash data. Disregarding the possible within-group correlations can lead to the production of models giving unreliable and biased estimates of unknowns. This study innovatively proposes a -level hierarchy, viz. (Geographic region level – Traffic site level – Traffic crash level – Driver-vehicle unit level – Vehicle-occupant level) Time level, to establish a general form of multilevel data structure in traffic safety analysis. To properly model the potential cross-group heterogeneity due to the multilevel data structure, a framework of Bayesian hierarchical models that explicitly specify multilevel structure and correctly yield parameter estimates is introduced and recommended. The proposed method is illustrated in an individual-severity analysis of intersection crashes using the Singapore crash records. This study proved the importance of accounting for the within-group correlations and demonstrated the flexibilities and effectiveness of the Bayesian hierarchical method in modeling multilevel structure of traffic crash data.

A proposed validation framework for expert elicited Bayesian Networks

The popularity of Bayesian Network modelling of complex domains using expert elicitation has raised questions of how one might validate such a model given that no objective dataset exists for the model. Past attempts at delineating a set of tests for establishing confidence in an entirely expert-elicited model have focused on single types of validity stemming from individual sources of uncertainty within the model. This paper seeks to extend the frameworks proposed by earlier researchers by drawing upon other disciplines where measuring latent variables is also an issue. We demonstrate that even in cases where no data exist at all there is a broad range of validity tests that can be used to establish confidence in the validity of a Bayesian Belief Network.