Multi-proxy summer and winter precipitation reconstruction for southern Africa over the last 200 years

This study presents the first consolidation of palaeoclimate proxy records from multiple archives to develop statistical rainfall reconstructions for southern Africa covering the last two centuries. State-of-the-art ensemble reconstructions reveal multi-decadal rainfall variability in the summer and winter rainfall zones. A decrease in precipitation amount over time is identified in the summer rainfall zone. No significant change in precipitation amount occurred in the winter rainfall zone, but rainfall variability has increased over time. Generally synchronous rainfall fluctuations between the two zones are identified on decadal scales, with common wet (dry) periods reconstructed around 1890 (1930). A strong relationship between seasonal rainfall and sea surface temperatures (SSTs) in the surrounding oceans is confirmed. Coherence among decadal-scale fluctuations of southern African rainfall, regional SST, SSTs in the Pacific Ocean and rainfall in south-eastern Australia suggest SST-rainfall teleconnections across the southern hemisphere. Temporal breakdowns of the SST-rainfall relationship in the southern African regions and the connection between the two rainfall zones are observed, for example during the 1950s. Our results confirm the complex interplay between large-scale teleconnections, regional SSTs and local effects in modulating multi-decadal southern African rainfall variability over long timescales.

Atmospheric Dynamics of Hot Exoplanets

The characterization of exoplanetary atmospheres has come of age in the last decade, as astronomical techniques now allow for albedos, chemical abundances, temperature profiles and maps, rotation periods and even wind speeds to be measured. Atmospheric dynamics sets the background state of density, temperature and velocity that determines or influences the spectral and temporal appearance of an exoplanetary atmosphere. Hot exoplanets are most amenable to these characterization techniques; in the present review, we focus on highly-irradiated, large exoplanets (the "hot Jupiters"), as astronomical data begin to confront theoretical questions. We summarize the basic atmospheric quantities inferred from the astronomical observations. We review the state of the art by addressing a series of current questions and look towards the future by considering a separate set of exploratory questions. Attaining the next level of understanding will require a concerted effort of constructing multi-faceted, multi-wavelength datasets for benchmark objects. Understanding clouds presents a formidable obstacle, as they introduce degeneracies into the interpretation of spectra, yet their properties and existence are directly influenced by atmospheric dynamics. Confronting general circulation models with these multi-faceted, multi-wavelength datasets will help us understand these and other degeneracies. The coming decade will witness a decisive confrontation of theory and simulation by the next generation of astronomical data.

Eco-Evolutionary Spatial Dynamics. Rapid Evolution and Isolation Explain Food Web Persistence

One of the current challenges in evolutionary ecology is understanding the long-term persistence of contemporary-evolving predator–prey interactions across space and time. To address this, we developed an extension of a multi-locus, multi-trait eco-evolutionary individual-based model that incorporates several interacting species in explicit landscapes. We simulated eco-evolutionary dynamics of multiple species food webs with different degrees of connectance across soil-moisture islands. A broad set of parameter combinations led to the local extinction of species, but some species persisted, and this was associated with (1) high connectance and omnivory and (2) ongoing evolution, due to multi-trait genetic variability of the embedded species. Furthermore, persistence was highest at intermediate island distances, likely because of a balance between predation-induced extinction (strongest at short island distances) and the coupling of island diversity by top predators, which by travelling among islands exert global top-down control of biodiversity. In the simulations with high genetic variation, we also found widespread trait evolutionary changes indicative of eco-evolutionary dynamics. We discuss how the ever-increasing computing power and high-resolution data availability will soon allow researchers to start bridging the in vivo–in silico gap.

EPA-1380 – Coordinated body-movement reflects psychotherapy outcome

Social interaction is a core aspect of human life that affects individuals’ physical and mental health. Social interaction usually leads to mutual engagement in diverse areas of mental, emotional, physiological and physical activity involving both interacting persons and subsequently impacting the outcome of interactions. A common approach to the analysis of social interaction is the study of the verbal content transmitted between sender and receiver. However, additional important processes and dynamics are occurring in other domains too, for example in the area of nonverbal behaviour: In a series of studies, we have looked at nonverbal synchrony – the coordination of two persons’ movement patterns – and it‘s association with relationship quality and with the outcome of interactions. Using a computer-based algorithm (Motion Energy Analysis, MEA: Ramseyer & Tschacher, 2011), which automatically quantifies a person‘s body-movement, we were able to objectively calculate nonverbal synchrony in a large number of dyads interacting in various settings. In a first step, we showed that the phenomenon of nonverbal synchrony exists at a level that is significantly higher than expected by chance. In a second step, we ascertained that across different settings – including patient-therapist dyads and healthy dyads – more synchronized movement was associated with better relationship quality and better interactional outcomes. The quality of a relationship is thus embodied by the synchronized movement patterns emerging between partners. Our studies suggest that embodied cognition is a valuable approach to research in social interaction, providing important clues for an improved understanding of interaction dynamics.

First valence, then arousal: the temporal dynamics of brain electric activity evoked by emotional stimuli

The temporal dynamics of the neural activity that implements the dimensions valence and arousal during processing of emotional stimuli were studied in two multi-channel ERP experiments that used visually presented emotional words (experiment 1) and emotional pictures (experiment 2) as stimulus material. Thirty-two healthy subjects participated (mean age 26.8 +/- 6.4 years, 24 women). The stimuli in both experiments were selected on the basis of verbal reports in such a way that we were able to map the temporal dynamics of one dimension while controlling for the other one. Words (pictures) were centrally presented for 450 (600) ms with interstimulus intervals of 1,550 (1,400) ms. ERP microstate analysis of the entire epochs of stimulus presentations parsed the data into sequential steps of information processing. The results revealed that in several microstates of both experiments, processing of pleasant and unpleasant valence (experiment 1, microstate #3: 118-162 ms, #6: 218-238 ms, #7: 238-266 ms, #8: 266-294 ms; experiment 2, microstate #5: 142-178 ms, #6: 178-226 ms, #7: 226-246 ms, #9: 262-302 ms, #10: 302-330 ms) as well as of low and high arousal (experiment 1, microstate #8: 266-294 ms, #9: 294-346 ms; experiment 2, microstate #10: 302-330 ms, #15: 562-600 ms) involved different neural assemblies. The results revealed also that in both experiments, information about valence was extracted before information about arousal. The last microstate of valence extraction was identical with the first microstate of arousal extraction.

A multi-model comparison of Atlantic multidecadal variability

A multi-model analysis of Atlantic multidecadal variability is performed with the following aims: to investigate the similarities to observations; to assess the strength and relative importance of the different elements of the mechanism proposed by Delworth et al. (J Clim 6:1993–2011, 1993) (hereafter D93) among coupled general circulation models (CGCMs); and to relate model differences to mean systematic error. The analysis is performed with long control simulations from ten CGCMs, with lengths ranging between 500 and 3600 years. In most models the variations of sea surface temperature (SST) averaged over North Atlantic show considerable power on multidecadal time scales, but with different periodicity. The SST variations are largest in the mid-latitude region, consistent with the short instrumental record. Despite large differences in model configurations, we find quite some consistency among the models in terms of processes. In eight of the ten models the mid-latitude SST variations are significantly correlated with fluctuations in the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC), suggesting a link to northward heat transport changes. Consistent with this link, the three models with the weakest AMOC have the largest cold SST bias in the North Atlantic. There is no linear relationship on decadal timescales between AMOC and North Atlantic Oscillation in the models. Analysis of the key elements of the D93 mechanisms revealed the following: Most models present strong evidence that high-latitude winter mixing precede AMOC changes. However, the regions of wintertime convection differ among models. In most models salinity-induced density anomalies in the convective region tend to lead AMOC, while temperature-induced density anomalies lead AMOC only in one model. However, analysis shows that salinity may play an overly important role in most models, because of cold temperature biases in their relevant convective regions. In most models subpolar gyre variations tend to lead AMOC changes, and this relation is strong in more than half of the models.

Local changes in neocortical circuit dynamics coincide with the spread of seizures to thalamus in a model of epilepsy

During the generalization of epileptic seizures, pathological activity in one brain area recruits distant brain structures into joint synchronous discharges. However, it remains unknown whether specific changes in local circuit activity are related to the aberrant recruitment of anatomically distant structures into epileptiform discharges. Further, it is not known whether aberrant areas recruit or entrain healthy ones into pathological activity. Here we study the dynamics of local circuit activity during the spread of epileptiform discharges in the zero-magnesium in vitro model of epilepsy. We employ high-speed multi-photon imaging in combination with dual whole-cell recordings in acute thalamocortical (TC) slices of the juvenile mouse to characterize the generalization of epileptic activity between neocortex and thalamus. We find that, although both structures are exposed to zero-magnesium, the initial onset of focal epileptiform discharge occurs in cortex. This suggests that local recurrent connectivity that is particularly prevalent in cortex is important for the initiation of seizure activity. Subsequent recruitment of thalamus into joint, generalized discharges is coincident with an increase in the coherence of local cortical circuit activity that itself does not depend on thalamus. Finally, the intensity of population discharges is positively correlated between both brain areas. This suggests that during and after seizure generalization not only the timing but also the amplitude of epileptiform discharges in thalamus is entrained by cortex. Together these results suggest a central role of neocortical activity for the onset and the structure of pathological recruitment of thalamus into joint synchronous epileptiform discharges.

Of mice, macaques and men: scaling of virus dynamics and immune responses

In this Opinion piece, I argue that the dynamics of viruses and the cellular immune response depend on the body size of the host. I use allometric scaling theory to interpret observed quantitative differences in the infection dynamics of lymphocytic choriomeningitis virus (LCMV) in mice (Mus musculus), simian immunodeficiency virus (SIV) in rhesus macaques (Macaca mulatta) and human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) in humans.

On the reduced sensitivity of the Atlantic overturning to Greenland ice sheet melting in projections: a multi-model assessment

Large uncertainties exist concerning the impact of Greenland ice sheet melting on the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) in the future, partly due to different sensitivity of the AMOC to freshwater input in the North Atlantic among climate models. Here we analyse five projections from different coupled ocean–atmosphere models with an additional 0.1 Sv (1 Sv = 10 6 m3/s) of freshwater released around Greenland between 2050 and 2089. We find on average a further weakening of the AMOC at 26°N of 1.1 ± 0.6 Sv representing a 27 ± 14% supplementary weakening in 2080–2089, as compared to the weakening relative to 2006–2015 due to the effect of the external forcing only. This weakening is lower than what has been found with the same ensemble of models in an identical experimen - tal set-up but under recent historical climate conditions. This lower sensitivity in a warmer world is explained by two main factors. First, a tendency of decoupling is detected between the surface and the deep ocean caused by an increased thermal stratification in the North Atlantic under the effect of global warming. This induces a shoaling of ocean deep ventilation through convection hence ventilating only intermediate levels. The second important effect concerns the so-called Canary Current freshwater leakage; a process by which additionally released fresh water in the North Atlantic leaks along the Canary Current and escapes the convection zones towards the subtropical area. This leakage is increasing in a warming climate, which is a consequence of decreasing gyres asymmetry due to changes in Ekman rumping. We suggest that these modifications are related with the northward shift of the jet stream in a warmer world. For these two reasons the AMOC is less susceptible to freshwater perturbations (near the deep water formation sides) in the North Atlantic as compared to the recent historical climate conditions. Finally, we propose a bilinear model that accounts for the two former processes to give a conceptual explanation about the decreasing AMOC sensitivity due to freshwater input. Within the limit of this bilinear model, we find that 62 ± 8% of the reduction in sensitivity is related with the changes in gyre asymmetry and freshwater leakage and 38 ± 8% is due to the reduction in deep ocean ventilation associated with the increased stratification in the North Atlantic.

Long-term hydrological dynamics and fire history over the last 2000 years in CE Europe reconstructed from a high-resolution peat archive

Sphagnum peatlands in the oceanic-continental transition zone of Poland are currently influenced by climatic and anthropogenic factors that lead to peat desiccation and susceptibility to fire. Little is known about the response of Sphagnum peatland testate amoebae (TA) to the combined effects of drought and fire. To understand the relationships between hydrology and fire dynamics, we used high-resolution multi-proxy palaeoecological data to reconstruct 2000 years of mire history in northern Poland. We employed a new approach for Polish peatlands – joint TA-based water table depth and charcoal-inferred fire activity reconstructions. In addition, the response of most abundant TA hydrological indicators to charcoal-inferred fire activity was assessed. The results show four hydrological stages of peatland development: moderately wet (from ∼35 BC to 800 AD), wet (from ∼800 to 1390 AD), dry (from ∼1390 to 1700 AD) and with an instable water table (from ∼1700 to 2012 AD). Fire activity has increased in the last millennium after constant human presence in the mire surroundings. Higher fire activity caused a rise in the water table, but later an abrupt drought appeared at the onset of the Little Ice Age. This dry phase is characterized by high ash contents and high charcoal-inferred fire activity. Fires preceded hydrological change and the response of TA to fire was indirect. Peatland drying and hydrological instability was connected with TA community changes from wet (dominance of Archerella flavum, Hyalosphenia papilio, Amphitrema wrightianum) to dry (dominance of Cryptodifflugia oviformis, Euglypha rotunda); however, no clear fire indicator species was found. Anthropogenic activities can increase peat fires and cause substantial hydrology changes. Our data suggest that increased human fire activity was one of the main factors that influenced peatland hydrology, though the mire response through hydrological changes towards drier conditions was delayed in relation to the surrounding vegetation changes.

Computational fluid dynamics modelling in cardiovascular medicine.

This paper reviews the methods, benefits and challenges associated with the adoption and translation of computational fluid dynamics (CFD) modelling within cardiovascular medicine. CFD, a specialist area of mathematics and a branch of fluid mechanics, is used routinely in a diverse range of safety-critical engineering systems, which increasingly is being applied to the cardiovascular system. By facilitating rapid, economical, low-risk prototyping, CFD modelling has already revolutionised research and development of devices such as stents, valve prostheses, and ventricular assist devices. Combined with cardiovascular imaging, CFD simulation enables detailed characterisation of complex physiological pressure and flow fields and the computation of metrics which cannot be directly measured, for example, wall shear stress. CFD models are now being translated into clinical tools for physicians to use across the spectrum of coronary, valvular, congenital, myocardial and peripheral vascular diseases. CFD modelling is apposite for minimally-invasive patient assessment. Patient-specific (incorporating data unique to the individual) and multi-scale (combining models of different length- and time-scales) modelling enables individualised risk prediction and virtual treatment planning. This represents a significant departure from traditional dependence upon registry-based, population-averaged data. Model integration is progressively moving towards 'digital patient' or 'virtual physiological human' representations. When combined with population-scale numerical models, these models have the potential to reduce the cost, time and risk associated with clinical trials. The adoption of CFD modelling signals a new era in cardiovascular medicine. While potentially highly beneficial, a number of academic and commercial groups are addressing the associated methodological, regulatory, education- and service-related challenges.

Professionalisation of sports federations – A multi-level framework for analysing forms, causes and consequences

Introduction: International and national sports federations as well as their member organisations (usually sports clubs) are key actors within the sports system and have a wide range of relationships outside the sports system (e.g. with the state, sponsors, and the media). They are currently facing major challenges such as growing competition in top-­‐level sports, democratisation of sports with “sports for all” and sports as the answer to social problems (integration, education, health, unemployment, etc.). In this context, professionalising sports organisations seems to be an appropriate strategy to face these challenges and solve current problems. This has led to a profound organisational change, particularly within sports federations, characterised by the strengthening of institutional management (managerialism) and the implementation of efficiency-­‐based management instruments and paid staff. In this context the questions arise how sports organisations professionalise and what consequences this may have. Theoretical framework: The goal of our presentation is to review the international literature and develop an appropriate concept of professionalisation in sport federations. Our multi-­‐level approach based on social theory of action integrates the current concepts and perspectives for analysing professionalisation in sports federations. We specify the framework for the following research perspectives: (1) forms, (2) causes and mechanisms, (3) consequences and (4) dynamics, and discuss the reciprocal relations between sports federations and their member organisations in this context. When analysing these different research perspectives, it is important to select or elaborate appropriate theoretical concepts to match the general multi-­‐level framework Discussion: The elaborated multi-­‐level framework for analysing professionalisation in sports federations is able to integrate most of the existing theoretical concepts and therefore, the broad range of endogenous as well as exogenous factors that might influence the professionalisation of sports organisations. Based on the theoretical framework, we can identify several consequences for the methodological design of studies intending to analyse the different perspectives of professionalisation in sports organisations: Data have to be collected on the different levels. Not only the forms of professionalisation and relevant structures of the organisations should be taken into account but also important characteristics of the environment (macro level) as well as members or member organisations, particularly key actors who might play a crucial role in gaining an understanding of professionalisation processes in sports organisations. In order to carry out a complex organisational research design, it seems necessary to focus on case studies – an approach that has become increasingly important in organisational research. Different strategies and methods of data collection have to be used within the case studies (e.g. interviews with experts within the organisations, questionnaire for selected people in the organisation, document analysis). Therefore, qualitative and quantitative research strategies have to be combined.

Changes in blood lipids and their associations with changes in measures of height, weight and body mass index from age 8 to 18 years: Project Heartbeat!

A variety of studies indicate that the process of athrosclerosis begins in childhood. There was limited information on the association of the changes in anthropometric variables to blood lipids in school age children and adolescents. Previous longitudinal studies of children typically with insufficient frequency of observation could not provide sound inference on the dynamics of change in blood lipids. The aims of this analysis are (1) to document the sex- and ethnic-specific trajectory and velocity curves of blood lipids (TC, LDL-C, HDL-C and TG); (2) to evaluate the relationship of changes in anthropometric variables, such as height, weight and BMI, to blood lipids from age 8 to 18 years. ^ Project HeartBeat! is a longitudinal study designed to examine the patterns of serial change in major cardiovascular risk factors. Cohort of three different age levels, 8, 11 and 14 years at baseline, with a total of 678 participants were enrolled. Each member of these cohorts was examined three times per year for up to four years. ^ Sex- and ethnic-specific trajectory and velocity curves of blood lipids; demonstrated the complex and polyphasic changes in TC, LDL-C, HDL-C and TG longitudinally. The trajectory curves of TC, LDL-C and HDL-C with age showed curvilinear patterns of change. The velocity change in TC, HDL-C and LDL-C showed U-shaped curves for non-Blacks, and nearly linear lines in velocity of TG for both Blacks and non-Blacks. ^ The relationship of changes in anthropometric variables to blood lipids was evaulated by adding height, weight, or BMI and associated interaction terms separately to the basic age-sex models. Height or height gain had a significant negative association with changes in TC, LDL-C and HDL-C. Weight or BMI gain showed positive associations with TC, LDL-C and TC, and a negative relationship with HDL-C. ^ Dynamic changes of blood lipids in school age children and adolescents observed from this analysis suggested that using fixed screening criteria under the current NCEP guidelines for all ages 2–19 may not be appropriate for this age group. The association of increasing BMI or weight to an adverse blood lipid profile found in this analysis also indicated that weight or BMI monitoring could be a future intervention to be implemented in the pediatric population. ^

Body mass index of Vietnamese children ages 6--15 years old

Childhood overweight can increase the risk of chronic diseases later in life. To determine the prevalence, trends and determinants of overweight among children ages 6-15 years old in Vietnam, we assessed data on body mass index (BMI) and demographic and socio-economic characteristics obtained from the 1992 Vietnam Living Standard Survey (1992 VLSS), the 1997 Vietnam Living Standard Survey (1997 VLSS), and the 2000 General Nutrition Survey (2000 GNS). These surveys used multi-stage cluster sample designs to produce nationally representative samples of Vietnamese children ages 6-15 years in 1992-1993, 1997-1998 and 2000. BMI classification was determined using cut-off values set by the International Obesity Task Force (IOTF). The mean prevalence of at risk of overweight and overweight among Vietnamese children rapidly increased from 0.4% in 1992 to 2.0% in 2000, along with a high prevalence of underweight (33.4% in 2000). Increases in weight, height and BMI varied according to gender, area of residence and socioeconomic status. Age, areas of residence and education of the household head are statistically significant predictors of at risk of overweight and overweight. This study identified the prevalence and trends of weight among children crucial to understanding the prevention of child overweight in Vietnam. ^

NONLINEAR TIME SERIES/SYSTEM ANALYSIS (STATE-SPACE, DYNAMICS, INTERVENTION, RESILIENCE, KALMAN)

A discussion of nonlinear dynamics, demonstrated by the familiar automobile, is followed by the development of a systematic method of analysis of a possibly nonlinear time series using difference equations in the general state-space format. This format allows recursive state-dependent parameter estimation after each observation thereby revealing the dynamics inherent in the system in combination with random external perturbations.^ The one-step ahead prediction errors at each time period, transformed to have constant variance, and the estimated parametric sequences provide the information to (1) formally test whether time series observations y(,t) are some linear function of random errors (ELEM)(,s), for some t and s, or whether the series would more appropriately be described by a nonlinear model such as bilinear, exponential, threshold, etc., (2) formally test whether a statistically significant change has occurred in structure/level either historically or as it occurs, (3) forecast nonlinear system with a new and innovative (but very old numerical) technique utilizing rational functions to extrapolate individual parameters as smooth functions of time which are then combined to obtain the forecast of y and (4) suggest a measure of resilience, i.e. how much perturbation a structure/level can tolerate, whether internal or external to the system, and remain statistically unchanged. Although similar to one-step control, this provides a less rigid way to think about changes affecting social systems.^ Applications consisting of the analysis of some familiar and some simulated series demonstrate the procedure. Empirical results suggest that this state-space or modified augmented Kalman filter may provide interesting ways to identify particular kinds of nonlinearities as they occur in structural change via the state trajectory.^ A computational flow-chart detailing computations and software input and output is provided in the body of the text. IBM Advanced BASIC program listings to accomplish most of the analysis are provided in the appendix. ^