Studies on the paratial and temporal distribution of surface meteorological parameters over Indian subcontinent

The intention of the present thesis work is to understand the physical processes responsible for climatic variability and predictability of the Indian subcontinent. The study is expected to delineate and emphasize the various boundaries and areas of transition and bring out the regional and temporal characteristics of the meteorological distribution of the country. The results obtained from the study is expected to provide a better understanding the physics of Indian cl imate, which can be incorporated for numerical weather prediction. The results obtained from the present study can be incorporated for climate modelling and long-term prediction of the meteorological parameters over Indian subcontinent

Qualitative air flow modelling and analysis of data centre air conditioning as multiple jet array

This work identifies the importance of plenum pressure on the performance of the data centre. The present methodology followed in the industry considers the pressure drop across the tile as a dependant variable, but it is shown in this work that this is the only one independent variable that is responsible for the entire flow dynamics in the data centre, and any design or assessment procedure must consider the pressure difference across the tile as the primary independent variable. This concept is further explained by the studies on the effect of dampers on the flow characteristics. The dampers have found to introduce an additional pressure drop there by reducing the effective pressure drop across the tile. The effect of damper is to change the flow both in quantitative and qualitative aspects. But the effect of damper on the flow in the quantitative aspect is only considered while using the damper as an aid for capacity control. Results from the present study suggest that the use of dampers must be avoided in data centre and well designed tiles which give required flow rates must be used in the appropriate locations. In the present study the effect of hot air recirculation is studied with suitable assumptions. It identifies that, the pressure drop across the tile is a dominant parameter which governs the recirculation. The rack suction pressure of the hardware along with the pressure drop across the tile determines the point of recirculation in the cold aisle. The positioning of hardware in the racks play an important role in controlling the recirculation point. The present study is thus helpful in the design of data centre air flow, based on the theory of jets. The air flow can be modelled both quantitatively and qualitatively based on the results.

Studies on nonlinear dynamics of certain reaction systems

The nonlinear dynamics of certain important reaction systems are discussed and analysed in this thesis. The interest in the theoretical and the experimental studies of chemical reactions showing oscillatory dynamics and associated properties is increasing very rapidly. An attempt is made to study some nonlinear phenomena exhibited by the well known chemical oscillator, the BelousovZhabotinskii reaction whose mathematical properties are much in common with the properties of biological oscillators. While extremely complex, this reaction is still much simpler than biological systems at least from the modelling point of view. A suitable model [19] for the system is analysed and the researcher has studied the limit cycle behaviour of the system, for different values of the stoichiometric parameter f, by keeping the value of the reaction rate (k6) fixed at k6 = l. The more complicated three-variable model is stiff in nature.

Studies on the seaweeds of andaman and nicobar group of islands

The importance of marine algae, often referred to as seaweeds, has been felt over a long time and is appreciated more and more in modern times. The economic value of marine algae is understood both indirectly and directly. The indirect benefit is due to the role of marine phytoplankton as well as the benthic macrophyte biomass along the shore and in the continental shelf, in primary production of the sea. Direct benefit includes the use of marine algae as food, feed, fertilizer and as source of various products of commercial importance such as agar and alginic acid. Hence to understand the potential resources of seaweeds, their distribution, density, standing crop and interrelated environmental parameters, a detailed study (survey and ecological work) was carried out for a period of 20 months from August 1988 to March 1990 in South Andaman, North Andaman, Middle Andaman, Havelock, Neil, Car Nicobar, Terassa, Chowra and Bumpoka islands. However in South Andaman, data were collected from five fixed stations fortnightly during this period for the purpose of modelling and system analysis.

Numerical Modelling of Tsunami Propagation in the South East Arabian Sea (SEAS) and Inundation along the Kerala Coast

Tsunamis are water waves generated by a sudden vertical displacement of the water surface. They are waves generated in the ocean by the disturbance associated with seismic activity, under sea volcanic eruptions, submarine landslides, nuclear explosion or meteorite impacts with the ocean. These waves are generated in the ocean and travel into coastal bays, gulfs, estuaries and rivers. These waves travel as gravity waves with a velocity dependent on water depth. The term tsunami is Japanese and means harbour (tsu) and wave (nami). It has been named so because such waves often develop resonant phenomena in harbours after offshore earthquakes.

A facile and single pot strategy for the synthesis of novel naphthyridine derivatives under microwave irradiation conditions using ZnCl2 as catalyst, evaluation of AChE inhibitory activity, and molecular modeling studies

A series of novel naphthyridine derivatives 3 and 4 was prepared from substituted pyridine 2 and ketones using ZnCl2 as catalyst under microwave irradiation conditions. All the compounds were evaluated for AChE inhibitory activity and promising compounds 3d, 3e, 4b, and 4g was identified. Representative compounds 3d and 3e were found to show insignificant THLE-2 liver cell viability/toxicity. The binding mode between X-ray crystal structure of human AChE and compounds was studied using molecular docking method and fitness scores were found to be in good correlation with the activity data.

Studies on Landfill Leachate Transportation and Its Impact on Soil Characteristics

Leachate from an untreated landfill or landfill with damaged liners will cause the pollution of soil and ground water. Here an attempt was made to generate knowledge on concentrations of all relevant pollutants in soil due to municipal solid waste landfill leachate and its migration through soil and also to study the effect of leachate on the engineering properties of soil. To identify the pollutants in soil due to the leachate generated from municipal solid waste landfill site, a case study on an unlined municipal solid waste landfill at Kalamassery has been done. Soil samples as well as water samples were collected from the site and analysed to identify the pollutants and its effect on soil characteristics. The major chemicals in the soil were identified as Ammonia, Chloride, Nitrate, Iron, Nickel, Chromium, Cadmium etc.. Engineering properties of field soil samples show that the chemicals from the leachate of landfill may have effect on the engineering properties of soil. Laboratory experiments were formulated to model the field around an unlined MSW landfill using two different soils subjected to a synthetic leachate. The Maximum change in chemical concentration and engineering property was observed on soil samples at a radial distance of 0.2 m and at a depth of 0.3 m. The pollutant (chemicals) transport pattern through the soil was also studied using synthetic leachate. To establish the effect of pollutants (chemicals) on engineering properties of soil, experiments were conducted on two types soils treated with the synthetic chemicals at four different concentrations. Analyses were conducted after maturing periods of 7, 50, 100 and 150 days. Test soils treated with maximum chemical concentration and matured for 150 days were showing major change in the properties. To visualize the flow of pollutants through soil in a broader sense, the transportation of pollutants through soil was modeled using software ‘Visual MODFLOW’. The actual field data collected for the case study was used to calibrate the modelling and thus simulated the flow pattern of the pollutants through soil around Kalamassery municipal solid waste landfill for an extent of 4 km2. Flow was analysed for a time span of 30 years in which the landfill was closed after 20 years. The concentration of leachate beneath the landfill was observed to be reduced considerably within one year after closure of landfill and within 8 years, it gets lowered to a negligible level. As an environmensstal management measure to control the pollution through leachate, permeable reactive barriers are used as an emerging technology. Here the suitability of locally available materials like coir pith, rice husk and sugar cane bagasse were investigated as reactive media in permeable reactive barrier. The test results illustrates that, among these, coir pith was showing better performance with maximum percentage reduction in concentration of the filtrate. All these three agricultural wastes can be effectively utilized as a reactive material. This research establishes the influence of leachate of municipal solid waste landfill on the engineering properties of soil. The factors such as type of the soil, composition of leachate, infiltration rate, aquifers, ground water table etc., will have a major role on the area of influence zone of the pollutants in a landfill. Software models of the landfill area can be used to predict the extent and the time span of pollution of a landfill, by inputting the accurate field parameters and leachate characteristics. The present study throws light on the role of agro waste materials on the reduction of the pollution in leachate and thus prevents the groundwater and soil from contamination

Modelling of global crop production and resulting N2O emissions

Landwirtschaft spielt eine zentrale Rolle im Erdsystem. Sie trägt durch die Emission von CO2, CH4 und N2O zum Treibhauseffekt bei, kann Bodendegradation und Eutrophierung verursachen, regionale Wasserkreisläufe verändern und wird außerdem stark vom Klimawandel betroffen sein. Da all diese Prozesse durch die zugrunde liegenden Nährstoff- und Wasserflüsse eng miteinander verknüpft sind, sollten sie in einem konsistenten Modellansatz betrachtet werden. Dennoch haben Datenmangel und ungenügendes Prozessverständnis dies bis vor kurzem auf der globalen Skala verhindert. In dieser Arbeit wird die erste Version eines solchen konsistenten globalen Modellansatzes präsentiert, wobei der Schwerpunkt auf der Simulation landwirtschaftlicher Erträge und den resultierenden N2O-Emissionen liegt. Der Grund für diese Schwerpunktsetzung liegt darin, dass die korrekte Abbildung des Pflanzenwachstums eine essentielle Voraussetzung für die Simulation aller anderen Prozesse ist. Des weiteren sind aktuelle und potentielle landwirtschaftliche Erträge wichtige treibende Kräfte für Landnutzungsänderungen und werden stark vom Klimawandel betroffen sein. Den zweiten Schwerpunkt bildet die Abschätzung landwirtschaftlicher N2O-Emissionen, da bislang kein prozessbasiertes N2O-Modell auf der globalen Skala eingesetzt wurde. Als Grundlage für die globale Modellierung wurde das bestehende Agrarökosystemmodell Daycent gewählt. Neben der Schaffung der Simulationsumgebung wurden zunächst die benötigten globalen Datensätze für Bodenparameter, Klima und landwirtschaftliche Bewirtschaftung zusammengestellt. Da für Pflanzzeitpunkte bislang keine globale Datenbasis zur Verfügung steht, und diese sich mit dem Klimawandel ändern werden, wurde eine Routine zur Berechnung von Pflanzzeitpunkten entwickelt. Die Ergebnisse zeigen eine gute Übereinstimmung mit Anbaukalendern der FAO, die für einige Feldfrüchte und Länder verfügbar sind. Danach wurde das Daycent-Modell für die Ertragsberechnung von Weizen, Reis, Mais, Soja, Hirse, Hülsenfrüchten, Kartoffel, Cassava und Baumwolle parametrisiert und kalibriert. Die Simulationsergebnisse zeigen, dass Daycent die wichtigsten Klima-, Boden- und Bewirtschaftungseffekte auf die Ertragsbildung korrekt abbildet. Berechnete Länderdurchschnitte stimmen gut mit Daten der FAO überein (R2 = 0.66 für Weizen, Reis und Mais; R2 = 0.32 für Soja), und räumliche Ertragsmuster entsprechen weitgehend der beobachteten Verteilung von Feldfrüchten und subnationalen Statistiken. Vor der Modellierung landwirtschaftlicher N2O-Emissionen mit dem Daycent-Modell stand eine statistische Analyse von N2O-und NO-Emissionsmessungen aus natürlichen und landwirtschaftlichen Ökosystemen. Die als signifikant identifizierten Parameter für N2O (Düngemenge, Bodenkohlenstoffgehalt, Boden-pH, Textur, Feldfrucht, Düngersorte) und NO (Düngemenge, Bodenstickstoffgehalt, Klima) entsprechen weitgehend den Ergebnissen einer früheren Analyse. Für Emissionen aus Böden unter natürlicher Vegetation, für die es bislang keine solche statistische Untersuchung gab, haben Bodenkohlenstoffgehalt, Boden-pH, Lagerungsdichte, Drainierung und Vegetationstyp einen signifikanten Einfluss auf die N2O-Emissionen, während NO-Emissionen signifikant von Bodenkohlenstoffgehalt und Vegetationstyp abhängen. Basierend auf den daraus entwickelten statistischen Modellen betragen die globalen Emissionen aus Ackerböden 3.3 Tg N/y für N2O, und 1.4 Tg N/y für NO. Solche statistischen Modelle sind nützlich, um Abschätzungen und Unsicherheitsbereiche von N2O- und NO-Emissionen basierend auf einer Vielzahl von Messungen zu berechnen. Die Dynamik des Bodenstickstoffs, insbesondere beeinflusst durch Pflanzenwachstum, Klimawandel und Landnutzungsänderung, kann allerdings nur durch die Anwendung von prozessorientierten Modellen berücksichtigt werden. Zur Modellierung von N2O-Emissionen mit dem Daycent-Modell wurde zunächst dessen Spurengasmodul durch eine detailliertere Berechnung von Nitrifikation und Denitrifikation und die Berücksichtigung von Frost-Auftau-Emissionen weiterentwickelt. Diese überarbeitete Modellversion wurde dann an N2O-Emissionsmessungen unter verschiedenen Klimaten und Feldfrüchten getestet. Sowohl die Dynamik als auch die Gesamtsummen der N2O-Emissionen werden befriedigend abgebildet, wobei die Modelleffizienz für monatliche Mittelwerte zwischen 0.1 und 0.66 für die meisten Standorte liegt. Basierend auf der überarbeiteten Modellversion wurden die N2O-Emissionen für die zuvor parametrisierten Feldfrüchte berechnet. Emissionsraten und feldfruchtspezifische Unterschiede stimmen weitgehend mit Literaturangaben überein. Düngemittelinduzierte Emissionen, die momentan vom IPCC mit 1.25 +/- 1% der eingesetzten Düngemenge abgeschätzt werden, reichen von 0.77% (Reis) bis 2.76% (Mais). Die Summe der berechneten Emissionen aus landwirtschaftlichen Böden beträgt für die Mitte der 1990er Jahre 2.1 Tg N2O-N/y, was mit den Abschätzungen aus anderen Studien übereinstimmt.

Applied mathematical problem solving, modelling, applications, and links to other subjects

The paper will consist of three parts. In part I we shall present some background considerations which are necessary as a basis for what follows. We shall try to clarify some basic concepts and notions, and we shall collect the most important arguments (and related goals) in favour of problem solving, modelling and applications to other subjects in mathematics instruction. In the main part II we shall review the present state, recent trends, and prospective lines of development, both in empirical or theoretical research and in the practice of mathematics instruction and mathematics education, concerning (applied) problem solving, modelling, applications and relations to other subjects. In particular, we shall identify and discuss four major trends: a widened spectrum of arguments, an increased globality, an increased unification, and an extended use of computers. In the final part III we shall comment upon some important issues and problems related to our topic.

Comparing meta-analysis and ecological-longitudinal analysis in time-series studies: a case study of the effects of air pollution on mortality in three Spanish cities

The objective of this paper is to introduce a diVerent approach, called the ecological-longitudinal, to carrying out pooled analysis in time series ecological studies. Because it gives a larger number of data points and, hence, increases the statistical power of the analysis, this approach, unlike conventional ones, allows the complementation of aspects such as accommodation of random effect models, of lags, of interaction between pollutants and between pollutants and meteorological variables, that are hardly implemented in conventional approaches. Design—The approach is illustrated by providing quantitative estimates of the short-termeVects of air pollution on mortality in three Spanish cities, Barcelona,Valencia and Vigo, for the period 1992–1994. Because the dependent variable was a count, a Poisson generalised linear model was first specified. Several modelling issues are worth mentioning. Firstly, because the relations between mortality and explanatory variables were nonlinear, cubic splines were used for covariate control, leading to a generalised additive model, GAM. Secondly, the effects of the predictors on the response were allowed to occur with some lag. Thirdly, the residual autocorrelation, because of imperfect control, was controlled for by means of an autoregressive Poisson GAM. Finally, the longitudinal design demanded the consideration of the existence of individual heterogeneity, requiring the consideration of mixed models. Main results—The estimates of the relative risks obtained from the individual analyses varied across cities, particularly those associated with sulphur dioxide. The highest relative risks corresponded to black smoke in Valencia. These estimates were higher than those obtained from the ecological-longitudinal analysis. Relative risks estimated from this latter analysis were practically identical across cities, 1.00638 (95% confidence intervals 1.0002, 1.0011) for a black smoke increase of 10 μg/m3 and 1.00415 (95% CI 1.0001, 1.0007) for a increase of 10 μg/m3 of sulphur dioxide. Because the statistical power is higher than in the individual analysis more interactions were statistically significant,especially those among air pollutants and meteorological variables. Conclusions—Air pollutant levels were related to mortality in the three cities of the study, Barcelona, Valencia and Vigo. These results were consistent with similar studies in other cities, with other multicentric studies and coherent with both, previous individual, for each city, and multicentric studies for all three cities

Partial nitritation of landfill leachate in a SBR prior to an anammox reactor : operation and modelling

Els lixiviats d'abocadors urbans són aigües residuals altament contaminades, que es caracteritzen per les elevades concentracions d'amoni i el baix contingut de matèria orgànica biodegradable. El tractament dels lixiviats a través dels processos de nitrificació-desnitrificació convencionals és costós a causa de la seva elevada demanda d'oxigen i la necessitat d'addició d'una font de carboni externa. En els darrers anys, la viabilitat del tractament d'aquest tipus d'afluents per un procés combinat de nitritació parcial-anammox ha estat demostrada. Aquesta tesi es centra en el tractament de lixiviats d'abocador a través d'un procés de nitritació parcial en SBR, com un pas preparatori per a un reactor anammox. Els resultats de l'estudi han demostrat la viabilitat d'aquesta tecnologia per al tractament de lixiviats d'abocador. El treball va evolucionar des d'una escala inicial de laboratori, on el procés va ser testat inicialment, a uns exitosos experiments d'operació a llarg termini a escala pilot. Finalment, la tesi també inclou el desenvolupament, calibració i validació d'un model matemàtic del procés, que té com a objectiu augmentar el coneixement del procés.

Rhodium(I) catalyzed [2+2+2] cycloaddition reactions: experimental and theoretical studies

The [2+2+2] cycloaddition reaction involves the formation of three carbon-carbon bonds in one single step using alkynes, alkenes, nitriles, carbonyls and other unsaturated reagents as reactants. This is one of the most elegant methods for the construction of polycyclic aromatic compounds and heteroaromatic, which have important academic and industrial uses. The thesis is divided into ten chapters including six related publications. The first study based on the Wilkinson’s catalyst, RhCl(PPh3)3, compares the reaction mechanism of the [2+2+2] cycloaddition process of acetylene with the cycloaddition obtained for the model of the complex, RhCl(PH3)3. In an attempt to reduce computational costs in DFT studies, this research project aimed to substitute PPh3 ligands for PH3, despite the electronic and steric effects produced by PPh3 ligands being significantly different to those created by PH3 ones. In this first study, detailed theoretical calculations were performed to determine the reaction mechanism of the two complexes. Despite some differences being detected, it was found that modelling PPh3 by PH3 in the catalyst helps to reduce the computational cost significantly while at the same time providing qualitatively acceptable results. Taking into account the results obtained in this earlier study, the model of the Wilkinson’s catalyst, RhCl(PH3)3, was applied to study different [2+2+2] cycloaddition reactions with unsaturated systems conducted in the laboratory. Our research group found that in the case of totally closed systems, specifically 15- and 25-membered azamacrocycles can afford benzenic compounds, except in the case of 20-membered azamacrocycle (20-MAA) which was inactive with the Wilkinson’s catalyst. In this study, theoretical calculations allowed to determine the origin of the different reactivity of the 20-MAA, where it was found that the activation barrier of the oxidative addition of two alkynes is higher than those obtained for the 15- and 25-membered macrocycles. This barrier was attributed primarily to the interaction energy, which corresponds to the energy that is released when the two deformed reagents interact in the transition state. The main factor that helped to provide an explanation to the different reactivity observed was that the 20-MAA had a more stable and delocalized HOMO orbital in the oxidative addition step. Moreover, we observed that the formation of a strained ten-membered ring during the cycloaddition of 20-MAA presents significant steric hindrance. Furthermore, in Chapter 5, an electrochemical study is presented in collaboration with Prof. Anny Jutand from Paris. This work allowed studying the main steps of the catalytic cycle of the [2+2+2] cycloaddition reaction between diynes with a monoalkyne. First kinetic data were obtained of the [2+2+2] cycloaddition process catalyzed by the Wilkinson’s catalyst, where it was observed that the rate-determining step of the reaction can change depending on the structure of the starting reagents. In the case of the [2+2+2] cycloaddition reaction involving two alkynes and one alkene in the same molecule (enediynes), it is well known that the oxidative coupling may occur between two alkynes giving the corresponding metallacyclopentadiene, or between one alkyne and the alkene affording the metallacyclopentene complex. Wilkinson’s model was used in DFT calculations to analyze the different factors that may influence in the reaction mechanism. Here it was observed that the cyclic enediynes always prefer the oxidative coupling between two alkynes moieties, while the acyclic cases have different preferences depending on the linker and the substituents used in the alkynes. Moreover, the Wilkinson’s model was used to explain the experimental results achieved in Chapter 7 where the [2+2+2] cycloaddition reaction of enediynes is studied varying the position of the double bond in the starting reagent. It was observed that enediynes type yne-ene-yne preferred the standard [2+2+2] cycloaddition reaction, while enediynes type yne-yne-ene suffered β-hydride elimination followed a reductive elimination of Wilkinson’s catalyst giving cyclohexadiene compounds, which are isomers from those that would be obtained through standard [2+2+2] cycloaddition reactions. Finally, the last chapter of this thesis is based on the use of DFT calculations to determine the reaction mechanism when the macrocycles are treated with transition metals that are inactive to the [2+2+2] cycloaddition reaction, but which are thermally active leading to new polycyclic compounds. Thus, a domino process was described combining an ene reaction and a Diels-Alder cycloaddition.

Stochastic modelling of rainfall from satellite data

Satellite-based rainfall monitoring is widely used for climatological studies because of its full global coverage but it is also of great importance for operational purposes especially in areas such as Africa where there is a lack of ground-based rainfall data. Satellite rainfall estimates have enormous potential benefits as input to hydrological and agricultural models because of their real time availability, low cost and full spatial coverage. One issue that needs to be addressed is the uncertainty on these estimates. This is particularly important in assessing the likely errors on the output from non-linear models (rainfall-runoff or crop yield) which make use of the rainfall estimates, aggregated over an area, as input. Correct assessment of the uncertainty on the rainfall is non-trivial as it must take account of • the difference in spatial support of the satellite information and independent data used for calibration • uncertainties on the independent calibration data • the non-Gaussian distribution of rainfall amount • the spatial intermittency of rainfall • the spatial correlation of the rainfall field This paper describes a method for estimating the uncertainty on satellite-based rainfall values taking account of these factors. The method involves firstly a stochastic calibration which completely describes the probability of rainfall occurrence and the pdf of rainfall amount for a given satellite value, and secondly the generation of ensemble of rainfall fields based on the stochastic calibration but with the correct spatial correlation structure within each ensemble member. This is achieved by the use of geostatistical sequential simulation. The ensemble generated in this way may be used to estimate uncertainty at larger spatial scales. A case study of daily rainfall monitoring in the Gambia, west Africa for the purpose of crop yield forecasting is presented to illustrate the method.

Wind-tunnel modelling of dispersion from a scalar area source in urban-like roughness

A wind-tunnel study was conducted to investigate ventilation of scalars from urban-like geometries at neighbourhood scale by exploring two different geometries a uniform height roughness and a non-uniform height roughness, both with an equal plan and frontal density of λ p = λ f = 25%. In both configurations a sub-unit of the idealized urban surface was coated with a thin layer of naphthalene to represent area sources. The naphthalene sublimation method was used to measure directly total area-averaged transport of scalars out of the complex geometries. At the same time, naphthalene vapour concentrations controlled by the turbulent fluxes were detected using a fast Flame Ionisation Detection (FID) technique. This paper describes the novel use of a naphthalene coated surface as an area source in dispersion studies. Particular emphasis was also given to testing whether the concentration measurements were independent of Reynolds number. For low wind speeds, transfer from the naphthalene surface is determined by a combination of forced and natural convection. Compared with a propane point source release, a 25% higher free stream velocity was needed for the naphthalene area source to yield Reynolds-number-independent concentration fields. Ventilation transfer coefficients w T /U derived from the naphthalene sublimation method showed that, whilst there was enhanced vertical momentum exchange due to obstacle height variability, advection was reduced and dispersion from the source area was not enhanced. Thus, the height variability of a canopy is an important parameter when generalising urban dispersion. Fine resolution concentration measurements in the canopy showed the effect of height variability on dispersion at street scale. Rapid vertical transport in the wake of individual high-rise obstacles was found to generate elevated point-like sources. A Gaussian plume model was used to analyse differences in the downstream plumes. Intensified lateral and vertical plume spread and plume dilution with height was found for the non-uniform height roughness

Predicting mesh density for adaptive modelling of the global atmosphere

The shallow water equations are solved using a mesh of polygons on the sphere, which adapts infrequently to the predicted future solution. Infrequent mesh adaptation reduces the cost of adaptation and load-balancing and will thus allow for more accurate mapping on adaptation. We simulate the growth of a barotropically unstable jet adapting the mesh every 12 h. Using an adaptation criterion based largely on the gradient of the vorticity leads to a mesh with around 20 per cent of the cells of a uniform mesh that gives equivalent results. This is a similar proportion to previous studies of the same test case with mesh adaptation every 1–20 min. The prediction of the mesh density involves solving the shallow water equations on a coarse mesh in advance of the locally refined mesh in order to estimate where features requiring higher resolution will grow, decay or move to. The adaptation criterion consists of two parts: that resolved on the coarse mesh, and that which is not resolved and so is passively advected on the coarse mesh. This combination leads to a balance between resolving features controlled by the large-scale dynamics and maintaining fine-scale features.