Development of directly modulated high speed telecommunication lasers based on surface defined feedback gratings

High-speed semiconductor lasers are an integral part in the implemen- tation of high-bit-rate optical communications systems. They are com- pact, rugged, reliable, long-lived, and relatively inexpensive sources of coherent light. Due to the very low attenuation window that exists in the silica based optical fiber at 1.55 μm and the zero dispersion point at 1.3 μm, they have become the mainstay of optical fiber com- munication systems. For the fabrication of lasers with gratings such as, distributed bragg reflector or distributed feedback lasers, etching is the most critical step. Etching defines the lateral dimmensions of the structure which determines the performance of optoelectronic devices. In this thesis studies and experiments were carried out about the exist- ing etching processes for InP and a novel dry etching process was de- veloped. The newly developed process was based on Cl2/CH4/H2/Ar chemistry and resulted in very smooth surfaces and vertical side walls. With this process the grating definition was significantly improved as compared to other technological developments in the respective field. A surface defined grating definition approach is used in this thesis work which does not require any re-growth steps and makes the whole fabrication process simpler and cost effective. Moreover, this grating fabrication process is fully compatible with nano-imprint lithography and can be used for high throughput low-cost manufacturing. With usual etching techniques reported before it is not possible to etch very deep because of aspect ratio dependent etching phenomenon where with increasing etch depth the etch rate slows down resulting in non-vertical side walls and footing effects. Although with our de- veloped process quite vertical side walls were achieved but footing was still a problem. To overcome the challenges related to grating defini- tion and deep etching, a completely new three step gas chopping dry etching process was developed. This was the very first time that a time multiplexed etching process for an InP based material system was demonstrated. The developed gas chopping process showed extra ordinary results including high mask selectivity of 15, moderate etch- ing rate, very vertical side walls and a record high aspect ratio of 41. Both the developed etching processes are completely compatible with nano imprint lithography and can be used for low-cost high-throughput fabrication. A large number of broad area laser, ridge waveguide laser, distributed feedback laser, distributed bragg reflector laser and coupled cavity in- jection grating lasers were fabricated using the developed one step etch- ing process. Very extensive characterization was done to optimize all the important design and fabrication parameters. The devices devel- oped have shown excellent performance with a very high side mode suppression ratio of more than 52 dB, an output power of 17 mW per facet, high efficiency of 0.15 W/A, stable operation over temperature and injected currents and a threshold current as low as 30 mA for almost 1 mm long device. A record high modulation bandwidth of 15 GHz with electron-photon resonance and open eye diagrams for 10 Gbps data transmission were also shown.

Errores gerenciales en empresas colombianas y multinacionales

Este proyecto busca analizar errores gerenciales de empresas nacionales y multinacionales comparando el comportamiento de sus gerentes ante diferentes escenarios. La realización adecuada de sus funciones promueve la generación de valor de las organizaciones haciéndolas más perdurables y longevas, por tanto la detección, el análisis y la propuesta de acción a partir de esos errores pueden convertirse en herramientas que permitan fortalecer el proceso de toma de decisión. En Colombia existe 1’683.079 empresas clasificadas de la siguiente manera: 1’609.015 microempresas , 62.274 pequeñas empresas , 10.098 medianas empresas y 1.683 grandes empresas y alrededor de 700 multinacionales .

Centro de Enseñanza Automovilística Rally: Perdurabilidad a través del sistema de gestión de calidad

El centro de enseñanza automovilística Rally fue fundado en Colombia en la ciudad de Duitama en 1991. Se encuentra aprobada con resolución No. 1823 del 2 de Septiembre de 1999 del Ministerio de Transporte para categorías A2, B1, B2, C1, C2, B3 y C3. Se ha posicionado entre los mejores no solo por el número y calidad de medios de que dispone, sino por ser referente continúo del resto de los centros de enseñanza automovilísticos, en campos como métodos de enseñanza, e innovaciones pedagógicas. El Decreto 1500 de 2009 estableció los requisitos para la constitución, funcionamiento y habilitación de los centros de enseñanza automovilística. Durante los procesos de seguimiento efectuados a través de las auditorias se ha identificado una “no conformidad” en el sistema relacionada con el control de los documentos y registros. Esta no conformidad pone en riesgo la certificación ISO 9001 y por lo tanto la habilitación del centro de enseñanza automovilística ya que como lo enuncia el artículo 12 del Decreto 1500 de 2009: “se habilita el funcionamiento del Centro de Enseñanza Automovilística de forma indefinida, siempre y cuando se mantenga vigente el cumplimiento de los requisitos que dieron origen a la misma”. Estas circunstancias han llevado al planteamiento de la siguiente pregunta de investigación: ¿Qué metodología debe ser implementada por el centro de enseñanza automovilística Rally para garantizar la continuidad de la certificación ISO 9001? En base a lo anterior el objetivo general de este proyecto aplicado a práctica se define de la siguiente manera: Identificar una metodología que le permita al centro de enseñanza automovilístico Rally garantizar la continuidad de la certificación ISO 9001. Estas soluciones se enmarcan en la línea de gerencia ya que engloban elementos como la reingeniería de procesos, el clima organizacional, etc., que entre todos interaccionan para definir el destino de la compañía. En últimas este proyecto busca optimizar la condición de vida de la empresa con el fin de asegurar su perdurabilidad en el tiempo, contribuyendo así a la construcción de organizaciones longevas en Colombia.

Population Change in a Marine Bird Colony is Driven By Changes in Recruitment

The population dynamics of long-lived birds are thought to be very sensitive to changes in adult survival. However, where natal philopatry is low, recruitment from the larger metapopulation may have the strongest effect on population growth rate even in long-lived species. Here, we illustrate such a situation where changes in a seabird colony size appeared to be the consequence of changes in recruitment. We studied the population dynamics of a declining colony of Ancient Murrelets (Synthliboramphus antiquus) at East Limestone Island, British Columbia. During 1990-2010, Ancient Murrelet chicks were trapped at East Limestone Island while departing to sea, using a standard trapping method carried on throughout the departure period. Adult murrelets were trapped while departing from the colony during 1990-2003. Numbers of chicks trapped declined during 1990-1995, probably because of raccoon predation, increased slightly from 1995-2000 and subsequently declined again. Reproductive success was 30% lower during 2000-2003 than in earlier years, mainly because of an increase in desertions. The proportion of nonbreeders among adult birds trapped at night also declined over the study period. Mortality of adult birds, thought to be mainly prebreeders, from predators more than doubled over the same period. Apparent adult survival of breeders remained constant during 1991-2002 once the first year after banding was excluded, but the apparent survival rates in the first year after banding fell and the survival of birds banded as chicks to age three halved over the same period. A matrix model of population dynamics suggested that even during the early part of the study immigration from other breeding areas must have been substantial, supporting earlier observations that natal philopatry in this species is low. The general colony decline after 2000 probably was related to diminished recruitment, as evidenced by the lower proportion of nonbreeders in the trapped sample. Hence the trend is determined by the recruitment decisions of externally reared birds, rather than demographic factors operating on the local breeding population, an unusual situation for a colonial marine bird. Because of the contraction in the colony it may now be subject to a level of predation pressure from which recovery will be impossible without some form of intervention.

Potential of Brassic rapa, Cannabis sativa, Helianthus annuus and Zea mays for phytoextraction of heavy metals from calcareous dredged sediment derived soils

Remediation of soil pollution is one of the many current environmental challenges. Anthropogenic activity has resulted in the contamination of extended areas of land, the remediation of which is both invasive and expensive by conventional means. Phytoextraction of heavy metals from contaminated soils has the prospect of being a more economic in situ alternative. In addition, phytoextraction targets ecotoxicologically the most relevant soil fraction of these metals, i.e. the bioavailable fraction. Greenhouse experiments were carried out to evaluate the potential of four high biomass crop species in their potential for phytoextraction of heavy metals, with or without with the use of soil amendments (EDTA or EDDS). A calcareous dredged sediment derived surface soil, with high organic matter and clay content and moderate levels of heavy metal pollution, was used in the experiments. No growth depression was observed in EDTA or EDDS treated pots in comparison to untreated controls. Metal accumulation was considered to be low for phytoextraction purposes, despite the use of chelating agents. The low observed shoot concentrations of heavy metals were attributed to the low phytoavailability of heavy metals in this particular soil substrate. The mobilising effects induced by EDTA in the soil were found to be too long-lived for application as a soil amendment in phytoextraction. Although EDDS was found to be more biodegradable, higher effect half lives were observed than reported in literature or observed in previous experiments. These findings caution against the use of any amendment, biodegradable or otherwise, without proper investigation of its effects and the longevity thereof. (C) 2005 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

HOx observations over West Africa during AMMA: impact of isoprene and NOx

Aircraft OH and HO2 measurements made over West Africa during the AMMA field campaign in summer 2006 have been investigated using a box model constrained to observations of long-lived species and physical parameters. "Good" agreement was found for HO2 (modelled to observed gradient of 1.23 ± 0.11). However, the model significantly overpredicts OH concentrations. The reasons for this are not clear, but may reflect instrumental instabilities affecting the OH measurements. Within the model, HOx concentrations in West Africa are controlled by relatively simple photochemistry, with production dominated by ozone photolysis and reaction of O(1D) with water vapour, and loss processes dominated by HO2 + HO2 and HO2 + RO2. Isoprene chemistry was found to influence forested regions. In contrast to several recent field studies in very low NOx and high isoprene environments, we do not observe any dependence of model success for HO2 on isoprene and attribute this to efficient recycling of HOx through RO2 + NO reactions under the moderate NOx concentrations (5–300 ppt NO in the boundary layer, median 76 ppt) encountered during AMMA. This suggests that some of the problems with understanding the impact of isoprene on atmospheric composition may be limited to the extreme low range of NOx concentrations.

Genetic diversity and structure of natural and managed populations of Cedrus atlantica (Pinaceae) assessed using random amplified polymorphic DNA

Cedrus atlantica (Pinaceae) is a large and exceptionally long-lived conifer native to the Rif and Atlas Mountains of North Africa. To assess levels and patterns of genetic diversity of this species. samples were obtained throughout the natural range in Morocco and from a forest plantation in Arbucies, Girona (Spain) and analyzed using RAPD markers. Within-population genetic diversity was high and comparable to that revealed by isozymes. Managed populations harbored levels of genetic variation similar to those found in their natural counterparts. Genotypic analyses Of Molecular variance (AMOVA) found that most variation was within populations. but significant differentiation was also found between populations. particularly in Morocco. Bayesian estimates of F,, corroborated the AMOVA partitioning and provided evidence for Population differentiation in C. atlantica. Both distance- and Bayesian-based Clustering methods revealed that Moroccan populations comprise two genetically distinct groups. Within each group, estimates of population differentiation were close to those previously reported in other gymnosperms. These results are interpreted in the context of the postglacial history of the species and human impact. The high degree of among-group differentiation recorded here highlights the need for additional conservation measures for some Moroccan Populations of C. atlantica.

Separation of Ba-137m from Cs-137 using new ion exchanger Na-2(H2O)(4)(H3O)[Al(OH)(6)Mo6O18]

A new polyoxometalate of chemical formula, Na-2(H2O)(4)(H3O)[Al(OH)(6)Mo6O18] (1) containing Anderson type large anion has been synthesized and characterized by single-crystal X-ray structure determination and IR spectroscopic studies. The crystal of 1 is triclinic, spacegroup P-1 with cell dimensions, a = 6.365(9) angstrom, b = 10.37(1) angstrom, c = 10.44(1) angstrom and alpha = 65.41(1), beta = 77.18(1), gamma = 86.58(1) and Z = 1. The compound 1 behaves as an ion exchanger and is stable in thermal, radiation and chemical environments. Radiochemical separation of the short-lived daughter Ba-137m (t(1/2) = 2.50 min) from its long-lived parent Cs-137 using this newly designed and synthesized ion exchanger has been developed.

Some new strategies for the chemical separation of actinides and lanthanides

A future goal in nuclear fuel reprocessing is the conversion or transmutation of the long-lived radioisotopes of minor actinides, such as americium, into short-lived isotopes by irradiation with neutrons. In order to achieve this transmutation, it is necessary to separate the minor actinides(III), [An(Ill)], from the lanthanides(III), [Ln(Ill)], by solvent extraction (partitioning), because the lanthanides absorb neutrons too effectively and hence limit neutron capture by the transmutable actinides. Partitioning using ligands containing only carbon, hydrogen, nitrogen and oxygen atoms is desirable because they are completely incinerable and thus the final volume of waste is minimised [1]. Nitric acid media will be used in the extraction experiments because it is envisaged that the An(III)/Ln(III) separation process could take place after the PUREX process. There is no doubt that the correct design of a molecule that is capable of acting as a ligand or extraction reagent is required for the effective separation of metal ions such as actinides(III) from lanthanides. Recent attention has been directed towards heterocyclic ligands with for the preferential separation of the minor actinides. Although such molecules have a rich chemistry, this is only now becoming sufficiently well understood in relation to the partitioning process [2]. The molecules shown in Figures I and 2 will be the principal focus of this study. Although the examples chosen here are used rather specific, the guidelines can be extended to other areas such as the separation of precious metals [3].

Transport impacts on atmosphere and climate: metrics

The transport sector emits a wide variety of gases and aerosols, with distinctly different characteristics which influence climate directly and indirectly via chemical and physical processes. Tools that allow these emissions to be placed on some kind of common scale in terms of their impact on climate have a number of possible uses such as: in agreements and emission trading schemes; when considering potential trade-offs between changes in emissions resulting from technological or operational developments; and/or for comparing the impact of different environmental impacts of transport activities. Many of the non-CO2 emissions from the transport sector are short-lived substances, not currently covered by the Kyoto Protocol. There are formidable difficulties in developing metrics and these are particularly acute for such short-lived species. One difficulty concerns the choice of an appropriate structure for the metric (which may depend on, for example, the design of any climate policy it is intended to serve) and the associated value judgements on the appropriate time periods to consider; these choices affect the perception of the relative importance of short- and long-lived species. A second difficulty is the quantification of input parameters (due to underlying uncertainty in atmospheric processes). In addition, for some transport-related emissions, the values of metrics (unlike the gases included in the Kyoto Protocol) depend on where and when the emissions are introduced into the atmosphere – both the regional distribution and, for aircraft, the distribution as a function of altitude, are important. In this assessment of such metrics, we present Global Warming Potentials (GWPs) as these have traditionally been used in the implementation of climate policy. We also present Global Temperature Change Potentials (GTPs) as an alternative metric, as this, or a similar metric may be more appropriate for use in some circumstances. We use radiative forcings and lifetimes from the literature to derive GWPs and GTPs for the main transport-related emissions, and discuss the uncertainties in these estimates. We find large variations in metric (GWP and GTP) values for NOx, mainly due to the dependence on location of emissions but also because of inter-model differences and differences in experimental design. For aerosols we give only global-mean values due to an inconsistent picture amongst available studies regarding regional dependence. The uncertainty in the presented metric values reflects the current state of understanding; the ranking of the various components with respect to our confidence in the given metric values is also given. While the focus is mostly on metrics for comparing the climate impact of emissions, many of the issues are equally relevant for stratospheric ozone depletion metrics, which are also discussed.

Redox control of light-induced charge separation in a transition metal cluster: photochemistry of a methyl viologen-substituted [Os-3(CO)10(a-diimine)] cluster

Sub)picosecond transient absorption (TA) and time-resolved infrared (TRIR) spectra of the cluster [OS3(CO)(10-) (AcPy-MV)](2+) (the clication AcPy-MV = Acpy-MV2+ = [2-pyridylacetimine-N-(2-(1'-methyl-4,4'-bipyridine-1,1'-diium-1-yl) ethyl)] (PF6)(2)) (1(2+)) reveal that photoinduced electron transfer to the electron-accepting 4,4'-bipyridine-1,1'diium (MV2+) moiety competes with the fast relaxation of the initially populated sigmapi* excited state of the cluster to the ground state and/or cleavage of an Os-Os bond. The TA spectra of cluster 12 in acetone, obtained by irradiation into its lowest-energy absorption band, show the characteristic absorptions of the one-electron-reduced MV*(+) unit at 400 and 615 nm, in accordance with population of a charge-separated (CS) state in which a cluster-core electron has been transferred to the lowest pi* orbital of the remote MV2+ unit. This assignment is confirmed by picosecond TRIR spectra that show a large shift of the pilot highest-frequency nu(CO) band of 1(2+) by ca. +40 cm(-1), reflecting the photooxidation of the cluster core. The CS state is populated via fast (4.2 x 10(11) s(-1)) and efficient (88%) oxidative quenching of the optically populated sigmapi* excited state and decays biexponentially with lifetimes of 38 and 166 ps (1:2:1 ratio) with a complete regeneration of the parent cluster. About 12% of the cluster molecules in the sigmapi* excited state form long-lived open-core biradicals. In strongly coordinating acetonitrile, however, the cluster core-to-MV2+ electron transfer in cluster 12+ results in the irreversible formation of secondary photoproducts with a photooxidized cluster core. The photochemical behavior of the [Os-3(CO)(10)(alpha-diimine-MV)](2+) (donor-acceptor) dyad can be controlled by an externally applied electronic bias. Electrochemical one-electron reduction of the MV2+ moiety prior to the irradiation reduces its electron-accepting character to such an extent that the photoinduced electron transfer to MV*+ is no longer feasible. Instead, the irradiation of reduced cluster 1(.)+ results in the reversible formation of an open-core zwitterion, the ultimate photoproduct also observed upon irradiation of related nonsubstituted clusters [Os-3(CO)(10)(alpha-diimine)] in strongly coordinating solvents such as acetonitrile.

Rhenium-to-benzoylpyridine and rhenium-to-bipyridine MLCT excited states offac-[Re(Cl)(4-benzoylpyridine)2(CO)3] andfac-[Re(4-benzoylpyridine)(CO)3(bpy)]+: a time-resolved spectroscopic and spectroelectrochemical study

The lowest allowed electronic transition of fac-[Re(Cl)(CO)(3)(bopy)(2)] (bopy = 4-benzoylpyridine) has a Re --> bopy MLCT character, as revealed by UV-vis and stationary resonance Raman spectroscopy. Accordingly, the lowest-lying, long-lived, excited state is Re --> bopy (MLCT)-M-3. Electronic depopulation of the Re(CO)(3) unit and population of a bopy pi* orbital upon excitation are evident by the upward shift of v(Cequivalent toO) vibrations and a downward shift of the ketone v(C=O) vibration, respectively, seen in picosecond time-resolved IR spectra. Moreover, reduction of a single bopy ligand in the (MLCT)-M-3 excited state is indicated by time-resolved visible and resonance Raman (TR3) spectra that show features typical of bopy(.-). In contrast, the lowest allowed electronic transition and lowest-lying excited state of a new complex fac-[Re(bopy)(CO)(3)(bpy)](+) (bpy = 2,2'-bipyridine) have been identified as Re --> bpy MLCT with no involvement of the bopy ligand, despite the fact that the first reduction of this complex is bopy-localized, as was proven spectroelectrochemically. This is a rare case in which the localizations of the lowest MLCT excitation and the first reduction are different. (MLCT)-M-3 excited states of both fac-[Re(Cl)(CO)(3)(bopy)(2)] and fac-[Re(bopy)(CO)(3)(bpy)](+) are initially formed vibrationally hot. Their relaxation is manifested by picosecond dynamic shifts of v(Cequivalent toO) IR bands. The X-ray structure of fac-[Re(bopy)(CO)(3)(bpy)](PF6CH3CN)-C-. has been determined.

Report of the 2010 assessment of the scientific assessment panel: future ozone and its impact on surface UV

SCIENTIFIC SUMMARY Globally averaged total column ozone has declined over recent decades due to the release of ozone-depleting substances (ODSs) into the atmosphere. Now, as a result of the Montreal Protocol, ozone is expected to recover from the effects of ODSs as ODS abundances decline in the coming decades. However, a number of factors in addition to ODSs have led to and will continue to lead to changes in ozone. Discriminating between the causes of past and projected ozone changes is necessary, not only to identify the progress in ozone recovery from ODSs, but also to evaluate the effectiveness of climate and ozone protection policy options. Factors Affecting Future Ozone and Surface Ultraviolet Radiation • At least for the next few decades, the decline of ODSs is expected to be the major factor affecting the anticipated increase in global total column ozone. However, several factors other than ODS will affect the future evolution of ozone in the stratosphere. These include changes in (i) stratospheric circulation and temperature due to changes in long-lived greenhouse gas (GHG) abundances, (ii) stratospheric aerosol loading, and (iii) source gases of highly reactive stratospheric hydrogen and nitrogen compounds. Factors that amplify the effects of ODSs on ozone (e.g., stratospheric aerosols) will likely decline in importance as ODSs are gradually eliminated from the atmosphere. • Increases in GHG emissions can both positively and negatively affect ozone. Carbon dioxide (CO2)-induced stratospheric cooling elevates middle and upper stratospheric ozone and decreases the time taken for ozone to return to 1980 levels, while projected GHG-induced increases in tropical upwelling decrease ozone in the tropical lower stratosphere and increase ozone in the extratropics. Increases in nitrous oxide (N2O) and methane (CH4) concentrations also directly impact ozone chemistry but the effects are different in different regions. • The Brewer-Dobson circulation (BDC) is projected to strengthen over the 21st century and thereby affect ozone amounts. Climate models consistently predict an acceleration of the BDC or, more specifically, of the upwelling mass flux in the tropical lower stratosphere of around 2% per decade as a consequence of GHG abundance increases. A stronger BDC would decrease the abundance of tropical lower stratospheric ozone, increase poleward transport of ozone, and could reduce the atmospheric lifetimes of long-lived ODSs and other trace gases. While simulations showing faster ascent in the tropical lower stratosphere to date are a robust feature of chemistry-climate models (CCMs), this has not been confirmed by observations and the responsible mechanisms remain unclear. • Substantial ozone losses could occur if stratospheric aerosol loading were to increase in the next few decades, while halogen levels are high. Stratospheric aerosol increases may be caused by sulfur contained in volcanic plumes entering the stratosphere or from human activities. The latter might include attempts to geoengineer the climate system by enhancing the stratospheric aerosol layer. The ozone losses mostly result from enhanced heterogeneous chemistry on stratospheric aerosols. Enhanced aerosol heating within the stratosphere also leads to changes in temperature and circulation that affect ozone. • Surface ultraviolet (UV) levels will not be affected solely by ozone changes but also by the effects of climate change and by air quality change in the troposphere. These tropospheric effects include changes in clouds, tropospheric aerosols, surface reflectivity, and tropospheric sulfur dioxide (SO2) and nitrogen dioxide (NO2). The uncertainties in projections of these factors are large. Projected increases in tropospheric ozone are more certain and may lead to reductions in surface erythemal (“sunburning”) irradiance of up to 10% by 2100. Changes in clouds may lead to decreases or increases in surface erythemal irradiance of up to 15% depending on latitude. Expected Future Changes in Ozone Full ozone recovery from the effects of ODSs and return of ozone to historical levels are not synonymous. In this chapter a key target date is chosen to be 1980, in part to retain the connection to previous Ozone Assessments. Noting, however, that decreases in ozone may have occurred in some regions of the atmosphere prior to 1980, 1960 return dates are also reported. The projections reported on in this chapter are taken from a recent compilation of CCM simulations. The ozone projections, which also form the basis for the UV projections, are limited in their representativeness of possible futures since they mostly come from CCM simulations based on a single GHG emissions scenario (scenario A1B of Emissions Scenarios. A Special Report of Working Group III of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Cambridge University Press, 2000) and a single ODS emissions scenario (adjusted A1 of the previous (2006) Ozone Assessment). Throughout this century, the vertical, latitudinal, and seasonal structure of the ozone distribution will be different from what it was in 1980. For this reason, ozone changes in different regions of the atmosphere are considered separately. • The projections of changes in ozone and surface clear-sky UV are broadly consistent with those reported on in the 2006 Assessment. • The capability of making projections and attribution of future ozone changes has been improved since the 2006 Assessment. Use of CCM simulations from an increased number of models extending through the entire period of ozone depletion and recovery from ODSs (1960–2100) as well as sensitivity simulations have allowed more robust projections of long-term changes in the stratosphere and of the relative contributions of ODSs and GHGs to those changes. • Global annually averaged total column ozone is projected to return to 1980 levels before the middle of the century and earlier than when stratospheric halogen loading returns to 1980 levels. CCM projections suggest that this early return is primarily a result of GHG-induced cooling of the upper stratosphere because the effects of circulation changes on tropical and extratropical ozone largely cancel. Global (90°S–90°N) annually averaged total column ozone will likely return to 1980 levels between 2025 and 2040, well before the return of stratospheric halogens to 1980 levels between 2045 and 2060. • Simulated changes in tropical total column ozone from 1960 to 2100 are generally small. The evolution of tropical total column ozone in models depends on the balance between upper stratospheric increases and lower stratospheric decreases. The upper stratospheric increases result from declining ODSs and a slowing of ozone destruction resulting from GHG-induced cooling. Ozone decreases in the lower stratosphere mainly result from an increase in tropical upwelling. From 1960 until around 2000, a general decline is simulated, followed by a gradual increase to values typical of 1980 by midcentury. Thereafter, although total column ozone amounts decline slightly again toward the end of the century, by 2080 they are no longer expected to be affected by ODSs. Confidence in tropical ozone projections is compromised by the fact that simulated decreases in column ozone to date are not supported by observations, suggesting that significant uncertainties remain. • Midlatitude total column ozone is simulated to evolve differently in the two hemispheres. Over northern midlatitudes, annually averaged total column ozone is projected to return to 1980 values between 2015 and 2030, while for southern midlatitudes the return to 1980 values is projected to occur between 2030 and 2040. The more rapid return to 1980 values in northern midlatitudes is linked to a more pronounced strengthening of the poleward transport of ozone due to the effects of increased GHG levels, and effects of Antarctic ozone depletion on southern midlatitudes. By 2100, midlatitude total column ozone is projected to be above 1980 values in both hemispheres. • October-mean Antarctic total column ozone is projected to return to 1980 levels after midcentury, later than in any other region, and yet earlier than when stratospheric halogen loading is projected to return to 1980 levels. The slightly earlier return of ozone to 1980 levels (2045–2060) results primarily from upper stratospheric cooling and resultant increases in ozone. The return of polar halogen loading to 1980 levels (2050–2070) in CCMs is earlier than in empirical models that exclude the effects of GHG-induced changes in circulation. Our confidence in the drivers of changes in Antarctic ozone is higher than for other regions because (i) ODSs exert a strong influence on Antarctic ozone, (ii) the effects of changes in GHG abundances are comparatively small, and (iii) projections of ODS emissions are more certain than those for GHGs. Small Antarctic ozone holes (areas of ozone <220 Dobson units, DU) could persist to the end of the 21st century. • March-mean Arctic total column ozone is projected to return to 1980 levels two to three decades before polar halogen loading returns to 1980 levels, and to exceed 1980 levels thereafter. While CCM simulations project a return to 1980 levels between 2020 and 2035, most models tend not to capture observed low temperatures and thus underestimate present-day Arctic ozone loss such that it is possible that this return date is biased early. Since the strengthening of the Brewer-Dobson circulation through the 21st century leads to increases in springtime Arctic column ozone, by 2100 Arctic ozone is projected to lie well above 1960 levels. Uncertainties in Projections • Conclusions dependent on future GHG levels are less certain than those dependent on future ODS levels since ODS emissions are controlled by the Montreal Protocol. For the six GHG scenarios considered by a few CCMs, the simulated differences in stratospheric column ozone over the second half of the 21st century are largest in the northern midlatitudes and the Arctic, with maximum differences of 20–40 DU between the six scenarios in 2100. • There remain sources of uncertainty in the CCM simulations. These include the use of prescribed ODS mixing ratios instead of emission fluxes as lower boundary conditions, the range of sea surface temperatures and sea ice concentrations, missing tropospheric chemistry, model parameterizations, and model climate sensitivity. • Geoengineering schemes for mitigating climate change by continuous injections of sulfur-containing compounds into the stratosphere, if implemented, would substantially affect stratospheric ozone, particularly in polar regions. Ozone losses observed following large volcanic eruptions support this prediction. However, sporadic volcanic eruptions provide limited analogs to the effects of continuous sulfur emissions. Preliminary model simulations reveal large uncertainties in assessing the effects of continuous sulfur injections. Expected Future Changes in Surface UV. While a number of factors, in addition to ozone, affect surface UV irradiance, the focus in this chapter is on the effects of changes in stratospheric ozone on surface UV. For this reason, clear-sky surface UV irradiance is calculated from ozone projections from CCMs. • Projected increases in midlatitude ozone abundances during the 21st century, in the absence of changes in other factors, in particular clouds, tropospheric aerosols, and air pollutants, will result in decreases in surface UV irradiance. Clear-sky erythemal irradiance is projected to return to 1980 levels on average in 2025 for the northern midlatitudes, and in 2035 for the southern midlatitudes, and to fall well below 1980 values by the second half of the century. However, actual changes in surface UV will be affected by a number of factors other than ozone. • In the absence of changes in other factors, changes in tropical surface UV will be small because changes in tropical total column ozone are projected to be small. By the middle of the 21st century, the model projections suggest surface UV to be slightly higher than in the 1960s, very close to values in 1980, and slightly lower than in 2000. The projected decrease in tropical total column ozone through the latter half of the century will likely result in clear-sky surface UV remaining above 1960 levels. Average UV irradiance is already high in the tropics due to naturally occurring low total ozone columns and high solar elevations. • The magnitude of UV changes in the polar regions is larger than elsewhere because ozone changes in polar regions are larger. For the next decades, surface clear-sky UV irradiance, particularly in the Antarctic, will continue to be higher than in 1980. Future increases in ozone and decreases in clear-sky UV will occur at slower rates than those associated with the ozone decreases and UV increases that occurred before 2000. In Antarctica, surface clear-sky UV is projected to return to 1980 levels between 2040 and 2060, while in the Arctic this is projected to occur between 2020 and 2030. By 2100, October surface clear-sky erythemal irradiance in Antarctica is likely to be between 5% below to 25% above 1960 levels, with considerable uncertainty. This is consistent with multi-model-mean October Antarctic total column ozone not returning to 1960 levels by 2100. In contrast, by 2100, surface clear-sky UV in the Arctic is projected to be 0–10% below 1960 levels.

Solar cycle 24: what is the sun up to?

March 2012 brought the first solar and geomagnetic disturbances of any note during solar cycle 24. But perhaps what was most remarkable about these events was how unremarkable they were compared to others during the space-age, attracting attention only because solar activity had been so quiet. This follows an exceptionally low and long-lived solar cycle minimum, and so the current cycle looks likely to extend a long-term decline in solar activity that started around 1985 and that could even lead to conditions similar to the Maunder minimum within 40 years from now, with implications for solar-terrestrial science and the mitigation of space weather hazards and maybe even for climate in certain regions and seasons.

Impact of duration thresholds on Atlantic tropical cyclone counts*

Records of Atlantic basin tropical cyclones (TCs) since the late nineteenth century indicate a very large upward trend in storm frequency. This increase in documented TCs has been previously interpreted as resulting from anthropogenic climate change. However, improvements in observing and recording practices provide an alternative interpretation for these changes: recent studies suggest that the number of potentially missed TCs is sufficient to explain a large part of the recorded increase in TC counts. This study explores the influence of another factor—TC duration—on observed changes in TC frequency, using a widely used Atlantic hurricane database (HURDAT). It is found that the occurrence of short-lived storms (duration of 2 days or less) in the database has increased dramatically, from less than one per year in the late nineteenth–early twentieth century to about five per year since about 2000, while medium- to long-lived storms have increased little, if at all. Thus, the previously documented increase in total TC frequency since the late nineteenth century in the database is primarily due to an increase in very short-lived TCs. The authors also undertake a sampling study based upon the distribution of ship observations, which provides quantitative estimates of the frequency of missed TCs, focusing just on the moderate to long-lived systems with durations exceeding 2 days in the raw HURDAT. Upon adding the estimated numbers of missed TCs, the time series of moderate to long-lived Atlantic TCs show substantial multidecadal variability, but neither time series exhibits a significant trend since the late nineteenth century, with a nominal decrease in the adjusted time series. Thus, to understand the source of the century-scale increase in Atlantic TC counts in HURDAT, one must explain the relatively monotonic increase in very short-duration storms since the late nineteenth century. While it is possible that the recorded increase in short-duration TCs represents a real climate signal, the authors consider that it is more plausible that the increase arises primarily from improvements in the quantity and quality of observations, along with enhanced interpretation techniques. These have allowed National Hurricane Center forecasters to better monitor and detect initial TC formation, and thus incorporate increasing numbers of very short-lived systems into the TC database.