Evaluation of CMIP5 palaeo-simulations to improve climate projections

Structural differences among models account for much of the uncertainty in projected climate changes, at least until the mid-twenty-first century. Recent observations encompass too limited a range of climate variability to provide a robust test of the ability to simulate climate changes. Past climate changes provide a unique opportunity for out-of-sample evaluation of model performance. Palaeo-evaluation has shown that the large-scale changes seen in twenty-first-century projections, including enhanced land–sea temperature contrast, latitudinal amplification, changes in temperature seasonality and scaling of precipitation with temperature, are likely to be realistic. Although models generally simulate changes in large-scale circulation sufficiently well to shift regional climates in the right direction, they often do not predict the correct magnitude of these changes. Differences in performance are only weakly related to modern-day biases or climate sensitivity, and more sophisticated models are not better at simulating climate changes. Although models correctly capture the broad patterns of climate change, improvements are required to produce reliable regional projections.

Exploiting existing ground-based remote sensing networks to improve high-resolution weather forecasts

A new generation of high-resolution (1 km) forecast models promises to revolutionize the prediction of hazardous weather such as windstorms, flash floods, and poor air quality. To realize this promise, a dense observing network, focusing on the lower few kilometers of the atmosphere, is required to verify these new forecast models with the ultimate goal of assimilating the data. At present there are insufficient systematic observations of the vertical profiles of water vapor, temperature, wind, and aerosols; a major constraint is the absence of funding to install new networks. A recent research program financed by the European Union, tasked with addressing this lack of observations, demonstrated that the assimilation of observations from an existing wind profiler network reduces forecast errors, provided that the individual instruments are strategically located and properly maintained. Additionally, it identified three further existing European networks of instruments that are currently underexploited, but with minimal expense they could deliver quality-controlled data to national weather services in near–real time, so the data could be assimilated into forecast models. Specifically, 1) several hundred automatic lidars and ceilometers can provide backscatter profiles associated with aerosol and cloud properties and structures with 30-m vertical resolution every minute; 2) more than 20 Doppler lidars, a fairly new technology, can measure vertical and horizontal winds in the lower atmosphere with a vertical resolution of 30 m every 5 min; and 3) about 30 microwave profilers can estimate profiles of temperature and humidity in the lower few kilometers every 10 min. Examples of potential benefits from these instruments are presented.

A tillering inhibition gene influences root-shoot carbon partitioning and pattern of water use to improve wheat productivity in rainfed environments

Genetic modification of shoot and root morphology has potential to improve water and nutrient 19 uptake of wheat crops in rainfed environments. Near-isogenic lines (NILs) varying for a tillering 20 inhibition (tin) gene and representing multiple genetic backgrounds were investigated in contrasting 21 controlled environments for shoot and root growth. Leaf area, shoot and root biomass were similar 22 until tillering whereupon reduced tillering in tin-containing NILs produced reductions of up to 60% in 23 total leaf area and biomass, and increases in total root length of up to 120% and root biomass to 24 145%. Together, root-to-shoot ratio increased two-fold with the tin gene. The influence of tin on shoot 25 and root growth was greatest in the cv. Banks genetic background, particularly in the biculm-selected 26 NIL, and was typically strongest in cooler environments. A separate de-tillering study confirmed 27 greater root-to-shoot ratios with regular tiller removal in non-tin containing genotypes. In validating 28 these observations in a rainfed field study, the tin allele had a negligible effect on seedling growth but 29 was associated with significantly (P<0.05) reduced tiller number (-37%), leaf area index (-26%) and 30 spike number (-35%) to reduce plant biomass (-19%) at anthesis. Root biomass, root-to-shoot ratio at 31 early stem elongation and root depth at maturity were increased in tin-containing NILs. Soil water use 32 was slowed in tin-containing NILs resulting in greater water availability, greater stomatal 33 conductance, cooler canopy temperatures and maintenance of green leaf area during grain-filling. 34 Together these effects contributed to increases in harvest index and grain yield. In both the controlled 35 and field environments, the tin gene was commonly associated with increased root length and biomass 36 but the significant influence of genetic background and environment suggests careful assessment of 37 tin-containing progeny in selection for genotypic increases in root growth.

A device to improve the Schleger and Turner method for sweating rate measurements

The objective of this study was to test a device developed to improve the functionality, accuracy and precision of the original technique for sweating rate measurements proposed by Schleger and Turner [Schleger AV, Turner HG (1965) Aust J Agric Res 16:92-106]. A device was built for this purpose and tested against the original Schleger and Turner technique. Testing was performed by measuring sweating rates in an experiment involving six Mertolenga heifers subjected to four different thermal levels in a climatic chamber. The device exhibited no functional problems and the results obtained with its use were more consistent than with the Schleger and Turner technique. There was no difference in the reproducibility of the two techniques (same accuracy), but measurements performed with the new device had lower repeatability, corresponding to lower variability and, consequently, to higher precision. When utilizing this device, there is no need for physical contact between the operator and the animal to maintain the filter paper discs in position. This has important advantages: the animals stay quieter, and several animals can be evaluated simultaneously. This is a major advantage because it allows more measurements to be taken in a given period of time, increasing the precision of the observations and diminishing the error associated with temporal hiatus (e.g., the solar angle during field studies). The new device has higher functional versatility when taking measurements in large-scale studies (many animals) under field conditions. The results obtained in this study suggest that the technique using the device presented here could represent an advantageous alternative to the original technique described by Schleger and Turner.

PODOCARPUS SP.PL. REFUGIA IN BRAZIL`S ATLANTIC FOREST: ANALYSING THE PAST TO IMPROVE FUTURE PROTECTION

The Atlantic rainforest has the second highest biodiversity in Brazil. It has been shrinking rapidly in area as a result of intensive deforestation, and only 7% of the original cover now remains, as isolated patches or in ecological reserves. In order to obtain new information on the distribution of the Atlantic rainforest during the Quaternary, we examined herbarium data to locate relevant populations and extracted DNA from fresh leaves from 26 populations. The present-day distribution of endemic Podocarpus populations shows that they are widely dispersed across eastern Brazil, and that the expansion of Podocarpus recorded in single Amazonian pollen records may have originated from either western or eastern populations. Genetic analysis enabled us to determine the boundaries of their regional expansion: northern and central populations of P. sellowii appeared between 5 degrees and 15 degrees S some 16,000 years ago; populations of P lambertii or sellowii have appeared between 15 degrees and 23 degrees S at different times since the last glaciation at least; and P lambertii appeared between 23 degrees and 30 degrees S during the recent expansion of Araucaria forests. The combination of botanical, pollen, and molecular analyses proved to be a rapid means of inferring distribution boundaries for sparse populations and their regional evolution within tropical ecosystems. Today the rainforest refugia we identified have become hotspots that are crucial to the survival of the Atlantic forest under unfavourable climatic conditions and, as such, offer the only possible opportunity for this type of forest to expand in the event of future climate change.

Poly(lactic acid-glycolic acid) nanoparticles markedly improve immunological protection provided by peptide P10 against murine paracoccidioidomycosis

Background and purpose: The present study reports on the preparation and testing of a sustained delivery system for the immunomodulatory peptide P10 aimed at reducing the in vivo degradation of the peptide and the amount required to elicit a protective immune response against paracoccidioidomycosis. Experimental approach: BALB/c mice were infected with the yeast Paracoccidioides brasiliensis to mimic the chronic form of paracoccidioidomycosis. The animals were treated daily with sulfamethoxazole/trimethoprim alone or combined with peptide P10, either emulsified in Freund`s adjuvant or entrapped in poly(lactic acid-glycolic acid) (PLGA) nanoparticles at different concentrations (1 mu g, 5 mu g, 10 mu g, 20 mu g or 40 mu g center dot 50 mu L-1). Therapeutic efficacy was assessed as fungal burden in tissues and the immune response by quantitative determination of cytokines. Key results: Animals given combined chemotherapy and P10 nanotherapy presented a marked reduction of fungal load in the lungs, compared with the non-treated animals. After 30 days of treatment, P10 entrapped within PLGA (1 mu g center dot 50 mu L-1) was more effective than `free` P10 emulsified in Freund`s adjuvant (20 mu g center dot 50 mu L-1), as an adjuvant to chemotherapy. After treatment for 90 days, the higher doses of P10 entrapped within PLGA (5 or 10 mu g center dot 50 mu L-1) were most effective. Treatment with P10 emulsified in Freund`s adjuvant (20 mu g center dot 50 mu L-1) or P10 entrapped within PLGA (1 mu g center dot 50 mu L-1) were accompanied by high levels of interferon-gamma in lung. Conclusions and implications: Combination of sulfamethoxazole/trimethoprim with the P10 peptide entrapped within PLGA demonstrated increased therapeutic efficacy against paracoccidioidomycosis. P10 incorporation into PLGA nanoparticles dramatically reduced the peptide amount necessary to elicit a protective effect.

Ecosystem health of Montevideo coastal zone: A multi approach using some different benthic indicators to improve a ten-year-ago assessment

A study on the benthic ecosystem health was performed to assess the environmental quality of Montevideo coastal zone, in view of the construction of a new sanitation system. Data were compared to previous research undertaken 10 years ago, and biochemical composition of organic matter, heavy metals, organic matter, phytopigments, benthic diatoms, macrofauna community structure and a biotic index (AMBI) were used as proxies. Results indicate an environmental quality-gradient, with the worst conditions within the inner stations of Montevideo Bay and an improvement towards the adjacent coastal zone. Higher levels of chromium, lead, phaeopigments, organic biopolymers and poor benthic macrofauna and diatom communities, characterised the hypertrophic innermost portion of Montevideo Bay. Data indicated a clear deterioration of the adjacent coastal zone comparatively to that observed 10 years ago. The complementary use of approaches not applied before (benthic diatoms and organic biopolymers) with those formerly applied improve our assessment of the trophic status and the environmental health of the area. (C) 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

A systematic review of triage-related interventions to improve patient flow in emergency departments

Background Overcrowding in emergency departments is a worldwide problem. A systematic literature review was undertaken to scientifically explore which interventions improve patient flow in emergency departments. Methods A systematic literature search for flow processes in emergency departments was followed by assessment of relevance and methodological quality of each individual study fulfilling the inclusion criteria. Studies were excluded if they did not present data on waiting time, length of stay, patients leaving the emergency department without being seen or other flow parameters based on a nonselected material of patients. Only studies with a control group, either in a randomized controlled trial or in an observational study with historical controls, were included. For each intervention, the level of scientific evidence was rated according to the GRADE system, launched by a WHO-supported working group. Results The interventions were grouped into streaming, fast track, team triage, point-of-care testing (performing laboratory analysis in the emergency department), and nurse-requested x-ray. Thirty-three studies, including over 800,000 patients in total, were included. Scientific evidence on the effect of fast track on waiting time, length of stay, and left without being seen was moderately strong. The effect of team triage on left without being seen was relatively strong, but the evidence for all other interventions was limited or insufficient. Conclusions Introducing fast track for patients with less severe symptoms results in shorter waiting time, shorter length of stay, and fewer patients leaving without being seen. Team triage, with a physician in the team, will probably result in shorter waiting time and shorter length of stay and most likely in fewer patients leaving without being seen. There is only limited scientific evidence that streaming of patients into different tracks, performing laboratory analysis in the emergency department or having nurses to request certain x-rays results in shorter waiting time and length of stay.

Policy instruments to improve energy efficiency in buildings

The newly adopted energy efficiency directive (2012/27/EU) highlights the importance of energy efficiency in reaching the Union’s 2020 targets. The directive commits member states to defining national energy efficiency targets (art. 3), achieving yearly energy savings of 1.5% of the annual energy sales through the energy efficiency obligation scheme (art. 7), and providing a long-term strategy for the building sector that aims at a 3% refurbishment rate for public buildings (art. 4+5). Buildings currently account for 40% of energy use in most countries, putting them among the largest end-use sectors. This report takes a closer look at the best practices for implementing increasing energy efficiency in different regions and countries in Europe. The final aim is to identify some policy tools to be suggested to the region of Dalarna (Dalarna having been chosen as the pilot county in Sweden) as a means of implementing energy efficiency in the building sector. The final objective is to give analysts and decision-makers a better analytical foundation to explore future policy development in the area of buildings to be proposed and tested at the regional level in Dalarna and later at the national level in Sweden.

Process evaluation of a knowledge translation intervention using facilitation of local stakeholder groups to improve neonatal survival in the Quang Ninh province, Vietnam

BACKGROUND: Annually, 2.8 million neonatal deaths occur worldwide, despite the fact that three-quarters of them could be prevented if available evidence-based interventions were used. Facilitation of community groups has been recognized as a promising method to translate knowledge into practice. In northern Vietnam, the Neonatal Health - Knowledge Into Practice trial evaluated facilitation of community groups (2008-2011) and succeeded in reducing the neonatal mortality rate (adjusted odds ratio, 0.51; 95 % confidence interval 0.30-0.89). The aim of this paper is to report on the process (implementation and mechanism of impact) of this intervention. METHODS: Process data were excerpted from diary information from meetings with facilitators and intervention groups, and from supervisor records of monthly meetings with facilitators. Data were analyzed using descriptive statistics. An evaluation including attributes and skills of facilitators (e.g., group management, communication, and commitment) was performed at the end of the intervention using a six-item instrument. Odds ratios were analyzed, adjusted for cluster randomization using general linear mixed models. RESULTS: To ensure eight active facilitators over 3 years, 11 Women's Union representatives were recruited and trained. Of the 44 intervention groups, composed of health staff and commune stakeholders, 43 completed their activities until the end of the study. In total, 95 % (n = 1508) of the intended monthly meetings with an intervention group and a facilitator were conducted. The overall attendance of intervention group members was 86 %. The groups identified 32 unique problems and implemented 39 unique actions. The identified problems targeted health issues concerning both women and neonates. Actions implemented were mainly communication activities. Communes supported by a group with a facilitator who was rated high on attributes and skills (n = 27) had lower odds of neonatal mortality (odds ratio, 0.37; 95 % confidence interval, 0.19-0.73) than control communes (n = 46). CONCLUSIONS: This evaluation identified several factors that might have influenced the outcomes of the trial: continuity of intervention groups' work, adequate attributes and skills of facilitators, and targeting problems along a continuum of care. Such factors are important to consider in scaling-up efforts.

Application Of Real-Time Control Strategy To Improve Nitrogen Removal In Wastewater Treatment

Biological nitrogen removal is an important task in the wastewater treatment. However, the actual removal of total nitrogen (TN) in the wastewater treatment plant (WWTP) is often unsatisfactory due to several causes, one of which is the insufficient availability of carbon source. One possible approach to improve the nitrogen removal therefore is addition of external carbon source, while the amount of which is directly related to operation cost of a WWTP. It is obviously necessary to determine the accurate amount of addition of external carbon source according to the demand depending on the influent wastewater quality. This study focused on the real-time control of external carbon source addition based on the on-line monitoring of influent wastewater quality. The relationship between the influent wastewater quality (specifically the concentration of COD and ammonia) and the demand of carbon source was investigated through experiments on a pilot-scale A/O reactor (1m3) at the Nanjing WWTP, China. The minimum doses of carbon source addition at different situations of influent wastewater quality were determined to ensure the effluent wastewater quality meets the discharge standard. The obtained relationship is expected to be applied in the full-scale WWTPs. .

An exploratory study on how to improve the economy of American Samoa

Deep in the South Pacific region about 2,300 miles southwest of the Hawaiian islands1 lies a United States territory that many Americans have never heard of nor known anything about. However, some famous Americans such as Troy Polamalu of the Pittsburgh Steelers, semi retired professional wrestler Dwayne “The Rock” Johnson, and Hawaii Congresswoman Tulsi Gabbard have genealogical roots there. More importantly, many of the Territory’s sons and daughters have served and lost their lives for the United States flag and the cause of freedom around the world. This place is called American Samoa, a collection of seven islands that if glued together would have a total landmass of approximately 76 square miles, just a tad bigger than the capital city of the United States. According to the United States Census Bureau, there were 55,519 residents of American Samoa in 2010.1 The majority of them are ethnic Samoans, a Polynesian sect that traces its history back to early migrants from Southeast Asia who settled the islands around 1500 B.C.2 3 The climate is warm all year long and the forests along the mountains are ripe with vegetation. The main island is Tutuila with its beautiful and coveted landlocked harbor that was used as a coaling station by the United States naval ships during World War II. In fact, it was the Pago Pago Harbor that diminished the impact of the 2009 Tsunami that devastated the Samoan islands by channeling the waters of the Pacific Ocean towards the end of the harbor instead of flooding many other villages surrounding the Pago Pago Bay area. Lives and property were destroyed near the end of the Harbor but it could have been worse for the entire Bay area. Locally grown foods include coconut, taro, banana, guava, sugar cane, papaya, yam, pineapple, and breadfruit. It is completely surrounded by the Pacific Ocean from which the locals obtain a variety of seafood. There is a popular saying in Samoa that goes, “In Samoa, it is impossible to starve 1 American Samoa Department of Commerce, 2012 Statistical Yearbook, http://www.doc.as/wpcontent/uploads/2011/06/2012-Statistical-Yearbook-1.pdf 2 U.S. Census Bureau News, U.S. Census Bureau Releases 2010 Census Population Counts for American Samoa, http://www.census.gov/2010census/news/releases/operations/cb11-cn177.html (Aug. 24, 2011). 3 3 J. Robert Shaffer, American Samoa: 100 Years Under the United States Flag (Honolulu, Hawaii: Island Heritage Publishing, 2000), 34. 4 because people live off of the land’s and the ocean’s abundant resources.” To the west of American Samoa lies a larger group of four islands that make up the Sovereign State of Samoa, which became independent from New Zealand in 1962. Samoa and American Samoa share the same language, culture, and religion but are divided by government and political systems. The focus of this study will be on American Samoa, which became a United States territory in 1900 when the principal chiefs of Tutuila (the largest island in American Samoa) ceded the islands to the United States.