A new method for the characterisation and verification of local spatial predictability for convective scale ensembles

The use of kilometre-scale ensembles in operational forecasting provides new challenges for forecast interpretation and evaluation to account for uncertainty on the convective scale. A new neighbourhood based method is presented for evaluating and characterising the local predictability variations from convective scale ensembles. Spatial scales over which ensemble forecasts agree (agreement scales, S^A) are calculated at each grid point ij, providing a map of the spatial agreement between forecasts. By comparing the average agreement scale obtained from ensemble member pairs (S^A(mm)_ij), with that between members and radar observations (S^A(mo)_ij), this approach allows the location-dependent spatial spread-skill relationship of the ensemble to be assessed. The properties of the agreement scales are demonstrated using an idealised experiment. To demonstrate the methods in an operational context the S^A(mm)_ij and S^A(mo)_ij are calculated for six convective cases run with the Met Office UK Ensemble Prediction System. The S^A(mm)_ij highlight predictability differences between cases, which can be linked to physical processes. Maps of S^A(mm)_ij are found to summarise the spatial predictability in a compact and physically meaningful manner that is useful for forecasting and for model interpretation. Comparison of S^A(mm)_ij and S^A(mo)_ij demonstrates the case-by-case and temporal variability of the spatial spread-skill, which can again be linked to physical processes.

Design and analysis of a haptic device design for large and fast movements

Haptic devices tend to be kept small as it is easier to achieve a large change of stiffness with a low associated apparent mass. If large movements are required there is a usually a reduction in the quality of the haptic sensations which can be displayed. The typical measure of haptic device performance is impedance-width (z-width) but this does not account for actuator saturation, usable workspace or the ability to do rapid movements. This paper presents the analysis and evaluation of a haptic device design, utilizing a variant of redundant kinematics, sometimes referred to as a macro-micro configuration, intended to allow large and fast movements without loss of impedance-width. A brief mathematical analysis of the design constraints is given and a prototype system is described where the effects of different elements of the control scheme can be examined to better understand the potential benefits and trade-offs in the design. Finally, the performance of the system is evaluated using a Fitts’ Law test and found to compare favourably with similar evaluations of smaller workspace devices.

A vaccine against S. pyogenes: Design and experimental immune response

Streptococcus pyogenes causes severe invasive infections: the post-streptococcal sequelae of acute rheumatic fever (RF) and rheumatic heart disease (RHD), acute glomerulonephritis, and uncomplicated pharyngitis and pyoderma. Efforts to produce a vaccine against S. pyogenes began several decades ago, and different models have been proposed. Here, we describe the methodology used in the development of a new vaccine model, consisting of both T and B protective epitopes constructed as synthetic peptides and recombinant proteins. Two adjuvants were tested in an experimental inbred mouse model: a classical Freund`s adjuvant and a new adjuvant (AFCo1) that induces mucosal immune responses and is obtained by calcium precipitation of a proteoliposome derived from the outer membrane of Neisseria meningitides B. The StreptInCor vaccine epitope co-administrated with AFCo1 adjuvant induced mucosal (IgA) and systemic (IgG) antibodies as preferential Th1-mediated immune responses. No autoimmune reactions were observed, suggesting that the vaccine epitope is safe. (c) 2009 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Variation of System Performance with Design and Climate for Combisystems in Sweden

In Sweden, 90% of the solar heating systems are solar domestic hot water and heating systems (SDHW&H), so called combisystems. These generally supply most of the domestic hot water needs during the summer and have enough capacity to supply some energy to the heating system during spring and autumn. This paper describes a standard Swedish combisystem and how the output from it varies with heating load, climate within Sweden, and how it can be increased with improved system design. A base case is defined using the standard combi- system, a modern Swedish single family house and the climate of Stockholm. Using the simulation program Trnsys, parametric studies have been performed on the base case and improved system designs. The solar fraction could be increased from 17.1% for the base case to 22.6% for the best system design, given the same system size, collector type and load. A short analysis of the costs of changed system design is given, showing that payback times for additional investment are from 5-8 years. Measurements on system components in the laboratory have been used to verify the simulation models used. More work is being carried out in order to find even better system designs, and further improvements in system performance are expected.

Design and assessment of a large commercial Photovoltaic System in Barbados

One of the main aims of this thesis is to design an optimized commercial Photovoltaic (PV) system in Barbados from several variables such as racking type, module type and inverter type based on practicality, technical performance as well as financial returns to the client. Detailed simulations are done in PVSYST and financial models are used to compare different systems and their viability. Once the preeminent system is determined from a financial and performance perspective a detailed design is done using PVSYST and AutoCAD to design the most optimal PV system for the customer. In doing so, suitable engineering drawings are generated which are detailed enough for construction of the system. Detailed cost with quotes from relevant manufacturers, suppliers and estimators become instrumental in determining Balance of System Costs in addition to total project cost. The final simulated system is suggested with a PV capacity of 425kW and an inverter output of 300kW resulting in an array oversizing of 1.42. The PV system has a weighted Performance Ratio of 77 %, a specific yield of 1467 kWh/kWp and a projected annual production of 624 MWh/yr. This system is estimated to offset approximately 28 % of Carlton’s electrical load annually. Over the course of 20 years the PV system is projected to produce electricity at a cost of $0.201USD/kWh which is significantly lower than the $0.35 USD/kWh paid to the utility at the time of writing this thesis. Due to the high cost of electricity on the island, an attractive Feed-In-Tariff is not necessary to warrant the installation of a commercial System which over a lifetime which produces electricity at less than 60% of the cost to the user purchasing electricity from the utility. A simple payback period of 5.4 years, a return on investment of 17 % without incentives, in addition to an estimated diversion of 6840 barrels of oil or 2168 tonnes of CO2 further provides compelling justification for the installation of a commercial Photovoltaic System not only on Carlton A-1 Supermarket, but also island wide as well as regionally where most electricity supplies are from imported fossil fuels.

Design and use of mobile technology in distance language education : Matching learning practices with technologies-in-practice

This thesis focuses on the adaptation of formal education to people’s technology- use patterns, theirtechnology-in-practice, where the ubiquitous use of mobile technologies is central. The research question is: How can language learning practices occuring in informal learning environments be effectively integrated with formal education through the use of mobile technology? The study investigates the technical, pedagogical, social and cultural challenges involved in a design science approach. The thesis consists of four studies. The first study systematises MALL (mobile-assisted language learning) research. The second investigates Swedish and Chinese students’ attitudes towards the use of mobile technology in education. The third examines students’ use of technology in an online language course, with a specific focus on their learning practices in informal learning contexts and their understanding of how this use guides their learning. Based on the findings, a specifically designed MALL application was built and used in two courses. Study four analyses the app use in terms of students’ perceived level of self-regulation and structuration. The studies show that technology itself plays a very important role in reshaping peoples’ attitudes and that new learning methods are coconstructed in a sociotechnical system. Technology’s influence on student practices is equally strong across borders. Students’ established technologies-in-practice guide the ways they approach learning. Hence, designing effective online distance education involves three interrelated elements: technology, information, and social arrangements. This thesis contributes to mobile learning research by offering empirically and theoretically grounded insights that shift the focus from technology design to design of information systems.

Design and validation of a sheet metal shearing experimental procedure

Throughout the industrial processes of sheet metal manufacturing and refining, shear cutting is widely used for its speed and cost advantages over competing cutting methods. Industrial shears may include some force measurement possibilities, but the force is most likely influenced by friction losses between shear tool and the point of measurement, and are in general not showing the actual force applied to the sheet. Well defined shears and accurate measurements of force and shear tool position are important for understanding the influence of shear parameters. Accurate experimental data are also necessary for calibration of numerical shear models. Here, a dedicated laboratory set-up with well defined geometry and movement in the shear, and high measurability in terms of force and geometry is designed, built and verified. Parameters important to the shear process are studied with perturbation analysis techniques and requirements on input parameter accuracy are formulated to meet experimental output demands. Input parameters in shearing are mostly geometric parameters, but also material properties and contact conditions. Based on the accuracy requirements, a symmetric experiment with internal balancing of forces is constructed to avoid guides and corresponding friction losses. Finally, the experimental procedure is validated through shearing of a medium grade steel. With the obtained experimental set-up performance, force changes as result of changes in studied input parameters are distinguishable down to a level of 1%.

Organizational design and incentive provision

We model the trade-off between the balance and the strength of incentives implicit in the choice between hierarchical and matrix or- ganizational structures. We show that managerial biases determine which structure is optimal: hierarchical forms are preferred when biases are low, while matrix structures are preferred when biases are high. Moreover, the results show that there is always a level of bias for which matrix design can achieve the expected profit obtained by shareholders if they could directly control the firm. We also show that the main trade-off, i.e., hierarchical versus matrix structure is preserved under asymmetric levels of bias among managers and when low-level workers perceive activities with complementary efforts.

Biased managers, organizational design, and incentive provision

We model the tradeoff between the balance and the strength of incentives implicit in the choice between hierarchical and matrix organizational structures. We show that managerial biases determine which structure is optimal: hierarchical forms are preferred when biases are low, while matrix structures are preferred when biases are high.

Europe’s financial crisis: the Euro’s flawed design and the consequences of lack of a government banker

This paper argues the euro zone requires a government banker that manages the bond market and helps finance country budget deficits. The euro solved Europe’s problem of exchange rate speculation by creating a unified currency managed by a single central bank, but in doing so it replaced the exchange rate speculation problem with bond market speculation. Remedying this requires a central bank that acts as government banker and maintains bond interest rates at sustainable levels. Because the euro is a monetary union, this must be done in a way that both avoids favoring individual countries and avoids creating incentives for irresponsible country fiscal policy that leads to “bail-outs”. The paper argues this can be accomplished via a European Public Finance Authority (EPFA) that issues public debt which the European Central Bank (ECB) is allowed to trade. The debate over the euro’s financial architecture has significant political implications. The current neoliberal inspired architecture, which imposes a complete separation between the central bank and public finances, puts governments under continuous financial pressures. That will make it difficult to maintain the European social democratic welfare state. This gives a political reason for reforming the euro and creating an EPFA that supplements the economic case for reform.

Design and Analysis of Optical Interconnection Networks for a Dataflow Parallel Computer

This work shows the design, simulation, and analysis of two optical interconnection networks for a Dataflow parallel computer architecture. To verify the optical interconnection network performance on the Dataflow architecture, we have analyzed the load balancing among the processors during the parallel programs executions. The load balancing is a very important parameter because it is directly associated to the dataflow parallelism degree. This article proves that optical interconnection networks designed with simple optical devices can provide efficiently the dataflow requirements of a high performance communication system.

Design and analysis of an efficient neural network model for solving nonlinear optimization problems

This paper presents an efficient approach based on a recurrent neural network for solving constrained nonlinear optimization. More specifically, a modified Hopfield network is developed, and its internal parameters are computed using the valid-subspace technique. These parameters guarantee the convergence of the network to the equilibrium points that represent an optimal feasible solution. The main advantage of the developed network is that it handles optimization and constraint terms in different stages with no interference from each other. Moreover, the proposed approach does not require specification for penalty and weighting parameters for its initialization. A study of the modified Hopfield model is also developed to analyse its stability and convergence. Simulation results are provided to demonstrate the performance of the proposed neural network.