Financial fragility, trade credit and contagion effects during the crisis: a spatial econometric approach to firm-level data

The number of distressed manufacturing firms increased sharply during recessionary phase 2009-13. Financial indebtness traditionally plays a key role in assessing firm solvency but contagion effects that originate from the supply chain are usually neglected in literature. Firm interconnections, captured via the trade credit channel, represent a primary vehicle of individual shocks’ propagation, especially during an economic downturn, when liquidity tensions arise. A representative sample of 11,920 Italian manufacturing firms is considered to model a two-step econometric design, where chain reactions in terms of trade credit accumulation (i.e. default of payments to suppliers) are primarily analyzed by resorting to a spatial autoregressive approach (SAR). Spatial interactions are modeled based on a unique dataset of firm-to-firm transactions registered before the outbreak of the crisis. The second step in instead a binary outcome model where trade credit chains are considered together with data on the bank-firm relationship to assess determinants of distress likelihoods in 2009-13. Results show that outstanding trade debt is affected by the liquidity position of a firm and by positive spatial effects. Trade credit chain reactions are found to exert, in turn, a positive impact on distress likelihoods during the crisis. The latter effect is comparable in magnitude to the one exerted by individual financial rigidity, and stresses the importance to include complex interactions between firms in the analysis of the solvency behavior.

Nonlinear dynamics in discretionary accruals: An analysis of bank loan-loss provisions

Several studies have analyzed discretionary accruals to address earnings-smoothing behaviors in the banking industry. We argue that the characteristic link between accruals and earnings may be nonlinear, since both the incentives to manipulate income and the practical way to do so depend partially on the relative size of earnings. Given a sample of 15,268 US banks over the period 1996–2011, the main results in this paper suggest that, depending on the size of earnings, bank managers tend to engage in earnings-decreasing strategies when earnings are negative (“big-bath”), use earnings-increasing strategies when earnings are positive, and use provisions as a smoothing device when earnings are positive and substantial (“cookie-jar” accounting). This evidence, which cannot be explained by the earnings-smoothing hypothesis, is consistent with the compensation theory. Neglecting nonlinear patterns in the econometric modeling of these accruals may lead to misleading conclusions regarding the characteristic strategies used in earnings management.

Georges Bank, 1837 (Raster Image)

This layer is a georeferenced raster image of the historic paper map entitled: Chart of Georges Shoal & Bank, surveyed by Charles Wilkes, Lieut. Commandant ... [et al.] in U.S. brig Porpoise, schooners Maria & Hadassah, by order of the Hon. Mahlon Dickerson, Secretary of the Navy ; drawn by J. Alden and W. May ; engraved by S. Stiles, Sherman & Smith, New-York. It was published under direction of the Navy Commissioners in 1837. Scale [ca. 1:62,000]. The image inside the map neatline is georeferenced to the surface of the earth and fit to the 'World Mercator' projection. All map collar and inset information is also available as part of the raster image, including any inset maps, profiles, statistical tables, directories, text, illustrations, index maps, legends, or other information associated with the principal map. This map shows hydrographic features such as as banks, shoals, bottom soil types, tide information, and more. Relief shown by soundings. Includes notes. This layer is part of a selection of digitally scanned and georeferenced historic maps from the Harvard Map Collection and the Harvard University Library as part of the Open Collections Program at Harvard University project: Organizing Our World: Sponsored Exploration and Scientific Discovery in the Modern Age. Maps selected for the project correspond to various expeditions and represent a range of regions, originators, ground condition dates, scales, and purposes.

Bank versus non-bank credit in the United States, Europe and China. Bruegel Policy Contribution, 2012/07, 5 June 2013

In the wake of recent crisis developments in the US and Europe, non-bank credit channels have often been portrayed as 'shadow banking' and have been considered primarily through the lens of the risks they may pose to financial stability. However, the debate about financial system structures remains immature, in large part due to lack of reliable and comparable data. The available evidence actually points towards a correlation between the development of non-bank credit and higher resilience against systemic risk, at least in developed economies. Policy should aim at better statistical information, and at strengthening the infrastructure for the gradual development of sustainable nonbank credit provision.

The distribution of debt across euro area countries : The role of individual characteristics, institutions and credit conditions. National Bank of Belgium Working Paper No. 252, December 2013

The aim of this paper is twofold. First, we present an up-to-date assessment of the differences across euro area countries in the distributions of various measures of debt conditional on household characteristics. We consider three different outcomes: the probability of holding debt, the amount of debt held and, in the case of secured debt, the interest rate paid on the main mortgage. Second, we examine the role of legal and economic institutions in accounting for these differences. We use data from the first wave of a new survey of household finances, the Household Finance and Consumption Survey, to achieve these aims. We find that the patterns of secured and unsecured debt outcomes vary markedly across countries. Among all the institutions considered, the length of asset repossession periods best accounts for the features of the distribution of secured debt. In countries with longer repossession periods, the fraction of people who borrow is smaller, the youngest group of households borrow lower amounts (conditional on borrowing), and the mortgage interest rates paid by low-income households are higher. Regulatory loan-to-value ratios, the taxation of mortgages and the prevalence of interest-only or fixed-rate mortgages deliver less robust results.

A macro-financial analysis of the euro area sovereign bond market. National Bank of Belgium Working Paper No. 259, June 2014

We estimate the 'fundamental' component of euro area sovereign bond yield spreads, i.e. the part of bond spreads that can be justified by country-specific economic factors, euro area economic fundamentals, and international influences. The yield spread decomposition is achieved using a multi-market, no-arbitrage affine term structure model with a unique pricing kernel. More specifically, we use the canonical representation proposed by Joslin, Singleton, and Zhu (2011) and introduce next to standard spanned factors a set of unspanned macro factors, as in Joslin, Priebsch, and Singleton (2013). The model is applied to yield curve data from Belgium, France, Germany, Italy, and Spain over the period 2005-2013. Overall, our results show that economic fundamentals are the dominant drivers behind sovereign bond spreads. Nevertheless, shocks unrelated to the fundamental component of the spread have played an important role in the dynamics of bond spreads since the intensification of the sovereign debt crisis in the summer of 2011

Central Bank Independence & Coordinated Wage Bargaining: Their Interaction in Germany & Europe. CES Germany & Europe Working Papers, No. 04.4, 1994

This paper explores the fashionable proposition that with a more independent central bank, a country can secure lower levels of inflation without higher unemployment. Hall shows that the operation of the central bank depends on the character of wage bargaining. He illustrates this point with some cross-national data and an analysis of how coordinated wage bargaining is secured in Germany. He concludes by exploring the implications of this analysis for European Monetary Union.

Financial regulatory transparency: new data and implications for EU policy. Bruegel Policy Brief 2015/20, December 2015

International financial institutions have promoted financial regulatory transparency, or the publication by supervisors of financial industry data. Financial regulatory transparency enhances market stability and increases democratic legitimacy. • We introduce a new index of financial regulatory data transparency: the FRT Index. It measures how countries report to international financial institutions basic macroprudential data about their financial systems.The Index covers 68 high-income and emerging-market economies over 22 years (1990-2011). • We find a number of striking trends over this period. European Union members are generally more opaque than other high-income countries.This finding is especially relevant given efforts to create an EU capital markets union. • Globally, financial regulatory data transparency has increased. However, there is considerable variation. Some countries have become significantlymore transparent, while others have become much more opaque. Reporting tends to decline during financial crises. • We propose that the EU institutions take on a greater role in coordinating and possibly enforcing reporting of bank and non-bank institution data. Similar to the United States, a reporting requirement should be part of any EU general deposit insurance scheme.

Distribution of the sand-ascidian Seriocarpa rhizoides in surface sediments of Josephine-Bank, North Atlantic (Table 4)

Seriocarpa rhizoides Diehl 1969 was collected in abundance from the calcareous sand of the Josephine Bank (between Portugal and Madeira) during the "Meteor" seamount cruises in 1967. Attachment in this loose soft substratum is effected by fine anchoring strands of the tests. Two irregular series of small polycarp-like hermaphrodite bodies which are embedded in a connective tissue lie directly below the endostyle, forming a tubular compound gonad, but without common ducts. The intermediate nature of the reproductive system with respect to arrangement and structure increases our knowledge about the polygenetic relations of the stylid-genera. Some of the hitherto known ecological facts point to the presumed "seamounts effect" on this species.

Distribution of halacarid species in sediment surface samples of Josephine Bank and Great Meteor Bank, Northeast Atlantic (Table 4)

In 22 samples, 6 from Josephine Bank and 16 from the Great Meteor Bank, 14 halacarid species were found and described. Halacarus spiniger n. sp., Copidognathus magniporus n. sp., Arhodeoporus lineatus n. sp., A. brevocularis n. sp., Coloboceras karamani n. sp., Scaptognathus minutus n. sp., and Atelopsalis newelli were hithero unknown. Acaromantis squilla Trouessart & Neumann and Atelopsalis tricuspis Trouessart were redescribed. Four larvae, probably belonging to Copidognathus longips Bartsch, C. tricorneata (Lohmann), Lohmannella falcata (Hodge), and Atelopsalis newelli n. sp. were described, two Scaptognathus larvae could not be identifird. To date only three species, Copidognathus tricorneata, Lohmannella falcata, and Scaptognathus minutus, have been found on both seamounts.

The use of computers in literature searching and related reference activities in libraries : papers presented at the 1975 Clinic on Library Applications of Data Processing, April 27-30, 1975 /

Includes bibliographical references.

A Climatologic and oceanographic analysis of the Georges Bank region of the Outer Continental Shelf : final report to the Bureau of Land Management, U.S. Department of the Interior /

"September 1980."

Annotated record of the detailed examination of Mn deposits in the submarine canyons off George Bank taken by the R/V ATlantis in 1939

New surveys were completed and data from the field sheets were kindly furnished by the U. S. Coast and Geodetic Survey to the Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution for use in dredging and coring operations. This field work, first reported in 1936, was continued from time to time until 1941 as new soundings became available. Rock dredging and coring has been carried out in every major canyon on the slope from Corsair Canyon at the tip of Georges Bank to Norfolk Canyon off the entrance to the Chesapeake. Numerous cores have also been taken from the areas in between; and while the whole slope from Georges to the Chesapeake has not been covered, it is believed that no significant areas have been missed. In the following report the tows and cores will be described by areas from Georges Bank southwards, as the same region was revisited in successive years. The various samples, however, will be referred to by number followed by the year in which they were taken. The material is in storage in the Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution and in the Museum of Comparative Zoology at Harvard University.

Developing foreign bank efficiency models for DEA grounded in finance theory

We develop foreign bank technical, cost and profit efficiency models for particular application with data envelopment analysis (DEA). Key motivations for the paper are (a) the often-observed practice of choosing inputs and outputs where the selection process is poorly explained and linkages to theory are unclear, and (b) foreign bank productivity analysis, which has been neglected in DEA banking literature. The main aim is to demonstrate a process grounded in finance and banking theories for developing bank efficiency models, which can bring comparability and direction to empirical productivity studies. We expect this paper to foster empirical bank productivity studies.

Comparative efficiency analysis of Portuguese bank branches

The advent of Internet banking and phone banking is changing the role of bank branches from a predominantly transaction-based one to a sales-oriented role. This paper reports on an assessment of the branches of a Portuguese bank in terms of their performance in their new roles in three different areas: Their efficiency in fostering the use of new transaction channels, their efficiency in increasing sales and their customer base, and their efficiency in generating profits. Service quality is also a major issue in service organisations like bank branches, and therefore we analyse the way this dimension of performance has been accounted for in the literature and take it into account in our empirical application. We have used data envelopment analysis (DEA) for the different performance assessments, but we depart from traditional DEA models in some cases. Performance comparisons on each dimension allowed us to identify benchmark bank branches and also problematic bank branches. In addition, we found positive links between operational and profit efficiency and also between transactional and operational efficiency. Service quality is positively related with operational and profit efficiency. © 2006 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.