VAR models and methods for monetary and health economics

Negli ultimi anni i modelli VAR sono diventati il principale strumento econometrico per verificare se può esistere una relazione tra le variabili e per valutare gli effetti delle politiche economiche. Questa tesi studia tre diversi approcci di identificazione a partire dai modelli VAR in forma ridotta (tra cui periodo di campionamento, set di variabili endogene, termini deterministici). Usiamo nel caso di modelli VAR il test di Causalità di Granger per verificare la capacità di una variabile di prevedere un altra, nel caso di cointegrazione usiamo modelli VECM per stimare congiuntamente i coefficienti di lungo periodo ed i coefficienti di breve periodo e nel caso di piccoli set di dati e problemi di overfitting usiamo modelli VAR bayesiani con funzioni di risposta di impulso e decomposizione della varianza, per analizzare l'effetto degli shock sulle variabili macroeconomiche. A tale scopo, gli studi empirici sono effettuati utilizzando serie storiche di dati specifici e formulando diverse ipotesi. Sono stati utilizzati tre modelli VAR: in primis per studiare le decisioni di politica monetaria e discriminare tra le varie teorie post-keynesiane sulla politica monetaria ed in particolare sulla cosiddetta "regola di solvibilità" (Brancaccio e Fontana 2013, 2015) e regola del GDP nominale in Area Euro (paper 1); secondo per estendere l'evidenza dell'ipotesi di endogeneità della moneta valutando gli effetti della cartolarizzazione delle banche sul meccanismo di trasmissione della politica monetaria negli Stati Uniti (paper 2); terzo per valutare gli effetti dell'invecchiamento sulla spesa sanitaria in Italia in termini di implicazioni di politiche economiche (paper 3). La tesi è introdotta dal capitolo 1 in cui si delinea il contesto, la motivazione e lo scopo di questa ricerca, mentre la struttura e la sintesi, così come i principali risultati, sono descritti nei rimanenti capitoli. Nel capitolo 2 sono esaminati, utilizzando un modello VAR in differenze prime con dati trimestrali della zona Euro, se le decisioni in materia di politica monetaria possono essere interpretate in termini di una "regola di politica monetaria", con specifico riferimento alla cosiddetta "nominal GDP targeting rule" (McCallum 1988 Hall e Mankiw 1994; Woodford 2012). I risultati evidenziano una relazione causale che va dallo scostamento tra i tassi di crescita del PIL nominale e PIL obiettivo alle variazioni dei tassi di interesse di mercato a tre mesi. La stessa analisi non sembra confermare l'esistenza di una relazione causale significativa inversa dalla variazione del tasso di interesse di mercato allo scostamento tra i tassi di crescita del PIL nominale e PIL obiettivo. Risultati simili sono stati ottenuti sostituendo il tasso di interesse di mercato con il tasso di interesse di rifinanziamento della BCE. Questa conferma di una sola delle due direzioni di causalità non supporta un'interpretazione della politica monetaria basata sulla nominal GDP targeting rule e dà adito a dubbi in termini più generali per l'applicabilità della regola di Taylor e tutte le regole convenzionali della politica monetaria per il caso in questione. I risultati appaiono invece essere più in linea con altri approcci possibili, come quelli basati su alcune analisi post-keynesiane e marxiste della teoria monetaria e più in particolare la cosiddetta "regola di solvibilità" (Brancaccio e Fontana 2013, 2015). Queste linee di ricerca contestano la tesi semplicistica che l'ambito della politica monetaria consiste nella stabilizzazione dell'inflazione, del PIL reale o del reddito nominale intorno ad un livello "naturale equilibrio". Piuttosto, essi suggeriscono che le banche centrali in realtà seguono uno scopo più complesso, che è il regolamento del sistema finanziario, con particolare riferimento ai rapporti tra creditori e debitori e la relativa solvibilità delle unità economiche. Il capitolo 3 analizza l’offerta di prestiti considerando l’endogeneità della moneta derivante dall'attività di cartolarizzazione delle banche nel corso del periodo 1999-2012. Anche se gran parte della letteratura indaga sulla endogenità dell'offerta di moneta, questo approccio è stato adottato raramente per indagare la endogeneità della moneta nel breve e lungo termine con uno studio degli Stati Uniti durante le due crisi principali: scoppio della bolla dot-com (1998-1999) e la crisi dei mutui sub-prime (2008-2009). In particolare, si considerano gli effetti dell'innovazione finanziaria sul canale dei prestiti utilizzando la serie dei prestiti aggiustata per la cartolarizzazione al fine di verificare se il sistema bancario americano è stimolato a ricercare fonti più economiche di finanziamento come la cartolarizzazione, in caso di politica monetaria restrittiva (Altunbas et al., 2009). L'analisi si basa sull'aggregato monetario M1 ed M2. Utilizzando modelli VECM, esaminiamo una relazione di lungo periodo tra le variabili in livello e valutiamo gli effetti dell’offerta di moneta analizzando quanto la politica monetaria influisce sulle deviazioni di breve periodo dalla relazione di lungo periodo. I risultati mostrano che la cartolarizzazione influenza l'impatto dei prestiti su M1 ed M2. Ciò implica che l'offerta di moneta è endogena confermando l'approccio strutturalista ed evidenziando che gli agenti economici sono motivati ad aumentare la cartolarizzazione per una preventiva copertura contro shock di politica monetaria. Il capitolo 4 indaga il rapporto tra spesa pro capite sanitaria, PIL pro capite, indice di vecchiaia ed aspettativa di vita in Italia nel periodo 1990-2013, utilizzando i modelli VAR bayesiani e dati annuali estratti dalla banca dati OCSE ed Eurostat. Le funzioni di risposta d'impulso e la scomposizione della varianza evidenziano una relazione positiva: dal PIL pro capite alla spesa pro capite sanitaria, dalla speranza di vita alla spesa sanitaria, e dall'indice di invecchiamento alla spesa pro capite sanitaria. L'impatto dell'invecchiamento sulla spesa sanitaria è più significativo rispetto alle altre variabili. Nel complesso, i nostri risultati suggeriscono che le disabilità strettamente connesse all'invecchiamento possono essere il driver principale della spesa sanitaria nel breve-medio periodo. Una buona gestione della sanità contribuisce a migliorare il benessere del paziente, senza aumentare la spesa sanitaria totale. Tuttavia, le politiche che migliorano lo stato di salute delle persone anziane potrebbe essere necessarie per una più bassa domanda pro capite dei servizi sanitari e sociali.

Família à mesa: com a palavra, mães e filhos

Introdução O comportamento alimentar do indivíduo resulta de decisões, conscientes ou não, relacionadas à cultura alimentar de sua região, à tradição alimentar de seu convívio social e às transformações decorridas do acesso à informação científica e popular. Objetivo Analisar a alimentação de adolescentes, residentes na região Norte do município de São José dos Campos (SP), na perspectiva da família. Materiais e métodos Estudo qualitativo, realizado em 2014 e 2015, com mães e adolescentes do 6o ano do ensino fundamental municipal. Dados sobre percepção, conhecimento, comportamento e barreiras para uma alimentação saudável dos adolescentes foram produzidos por meio de grupos focais. Entrevistas semiestruturadas foram realizadas com as mães dos estudantes para investigar aspectos sobre alimentação da família e relação com formação de práticas e comportamentos alimentares dos filhos. Os discursos foram registrados com auxílio de um gravador de voz, e transcritos posteriormente para análise, por meio da técnica de análise de conteúdo temática. Foram realizados 4 grupos focais com 6 estudantes cada, e 15 entrevistas com mães. Resultados e discussão Os discursos foram classificados em temas: comportamento alimentar, preferências alimentares e conhecimentos e crenças. Verificou-se que a alimentação dos adolescentes pode ser influenciada pelo comportamento alimentar dos pais. Mães e adolescentes percebemse conscientes e julgam sobre o que comem. Entretanto, a fala muitas vezes está distante da prática, seja por negligencia, dificuldade em perceber possibilidades de ação, questões emotivas ou pelo hábito formado, considerado a maior dificuldade para mudanças relacionadas à alimentação, tanto das mães quanto adolescentes. Possibilidades de soluções, quando referidas, eram por vezes permeadas por conflitos, causando insatisfação em mães e filhos. O contexto no qual esses individuos estão inseridos deve ser considerado, como o bairro e a escola, os quais contribuem para a determinação das escolhas alimentares. Conclusão a família exerce importante papel no comportamento alimentar de adolescentes, entretanto, a compreensão sobre o tema deve considerar, sobretudo, a cultura e o meio social em que a dinâmica familiar está contextualizada.

Enrichment of the Phenotypic and Genotypic Data Warehouse analysis using Question Answering systems to facilitate the decision making process in cereal breeding programs

Currently there are an overwhelming number of scientific publications in Life Sciences, especially in Genetics and Biotechnology. This huge amount of information is structured in corporate Data Warehouses (DW) or in Biological Databases (e.g. UniProt, RCSB Protein Data Bank, CEREALAB or GenBank), whose main drawback is its cost of updating that makes it obsolete easily. However, these Databases are the main tool for enterprises when they want to update their internal information, for example when a plant breeder enterprise needs to enrich its genetic information (internal structured Database) with recently discovered genes related to specific phenotypic traits (external unstructured data) in order to choose the desired parentals for breeding programs. In this paper, we propose to complement the internal information with external data from the Web using Question Answering (QA) techniques. We go a step further by providing a complete framework for integrating unstructured and structured information by combining traditional Databases and DW architectures with QA systems. The great advantage of our framework is that decision makers can compare instantaneously internal data with external data from competitors, thereby allowing taking quick strategic decisions based on richer data.

Farm/Household-Level Simulation: Results of Testing Policy and Other Scenarios. Factor Markets Working Document No. 54, June 2013

Among the different production factors, land is the one that most often limits farm development and one of the most studied. The connection between policy and other context variables and land markets is at the core of the policy debate, including the present reform of the Common Agricultural Policy. The proposal of the latter has been published in October 2011 and in Italy it will include the switch of the payment regime from an historical to a regional basis. The authors’ objective is to simulate the impact of the proposed policy reform on the land market, particularly on land values and propensity to transaction. They combine insights and data from a farm household investment model revised and extended in order to simulate the demand curve for land in different policy scenarios and a survey of farmers stated intention carried out in the province of Bologna (Italy) in 2012. Based on these results, the authors calibrate a mathematical programming model of land market exchanges for the province of Bologna and use this model form simulation. The results of the model largely corroborate the results from the survey and both hint at a relevant reaction of the land demand and supply to the shift from the historical to the regionalised payments. As effect, the regionalisation would result in increased rental prices and in a tendency to the re-allocation of land.

Towards moldable development tools

Developers commonly ask detailed and domain-specific questions about the software systems they are developing and maintaining. Integrated development environments (IDEs) form an essential category of tools for developing software that should support software engineering decision making. Unfortunately, rigid and generic IDEs that focus on low-level programming tasks, that promote code rather than data, and that suppress customization, offer limited support for informed decision making during software development. We propose to improve decision making within IDEs by moving from generic to context-aware IDEs through moldable tools. In this paper, we promote the idea of moldable tools, illustrate it with concrete examples, and discuss future research directions.

Experimental manipulation of prior experience: Effects on item and associative recognition

Frequency of exposure to very low- and high-frequency words was manipulated in a three-phase (familiarisation, study, and test) design. During familiarisation, words were presented with their definition (once, four times, or not presented). One week (Experiment 1) or one day (Experiment 2) later, participants studied a list of homogeneous pairs (i.e., pair members were matched on background and familiarisation frequency). Item and associative recognition of high- and very low-frequency words presented in intact, rearranged, old-new, or new-new pairs were tested in Experiment 1. Associative recognition of very low-frequency words was tested in Experiment 2. Results showed that prior familiaris ation improved associative recognition of very low-frequency pairs, but had no effect on high-frequency pairs. The role of meaning in the formation of item-to-item and item-to-context associations and the implications for current models of memory are discussed.

The International Consortium on Mental Health Policy and Services: objectives, design and project implementation

The concept of the burden of disease, introduced and estimated for a broad range of diseases in the World Bank report of 1993 illustrated that mental and neurological disorders not only entail a higher burden than cancer, but are responsible, in developed and developing countries, for more than 15% of the total burden of all diseases. As a consequence, over the past decade, mental disorders have ranked increasingly highly on the international agenda for health. However, the fact that mental health and nervous system disorders are now high on the international health agenda is by no means a guarantee that the fate of patients suffering from these disorders in developing countries will improve. In most developing countries the treatment gap for mental and neurological disorders is still unacceptably high. To address this problem, an international network of collaborating institutions in low-income countries has been set up. The establishment and the achievements of this network-the International Consortium on Mental Health Policy and Services-are reported. Sixteen institutions in developing countries collaborate (supported by a small number of scientific resource centres in industrialized nations) in projects on applied mental health systems research. Over a two-year period, the network produced the key elements of a national mental health policy; provided tools and methods for assessing a country's current mental health status (context, needs and demands, programmes, services and care and outcomes); established a global network of expertise, i.e., institutions and experts, for use by countries wishing to reform their mental health policy, services and care; and generated guidelines and examples for upgrading mental health policy with due regard to the existing mental health delivery system and demographic, cultural and economic factors.

Archaeology and age of a new hominin from Flores in eastern Indonesia

Excavations at Liang Bua, a large limestone cave on the island of Flores in eastern Indonesia, have yielded evidence for a population of tiny hominins, sufficiently distinct anatomically to be assigned to a new species, Homo floresiensis(1). The finds comprise the cranial and some post-cranial remains of one individual, as well as a premolar from another individual in older deposits. Here we describe their context, implications and the remaining archaeological uncertainties. Dating by radiocarbon (C-14), luminescence, uranium-series and electron spin resonance (ESR) methods indicates that H. floresiensis existed from before 38,000 years ago (kyr) until at least 18 kyr. Associated deposits contain stone artefacts and animal remains, including Komodo dragon and an endemic, dwarfed species of Stegodon. H. floresiensis originated from an early dispersal of Homo erectus ( including specimens referred to as Homo ergaster and Homo georgicus)(1) that reached Flores, and then survived on this island refuge until relatively recently. It overlapped significantly in time with Homo sapiens in the region(2,3), but we do not know if or how the two species interacted.

Promoter-, cell-, and ligand-specific transactivation responses of the VDRB1 isoform

The vitamin D receptor (VDR) mediates the effects of 1,25(OH)(2)D-3, the active form of vitamin D. The human VDRB1 isoform differs from the originally described VDR by an N-terminal extension of 50 amino acids. Here we investigate cell-, promoter-, and ligand-specific transactivation by the VDRB1 isoform. Transactivation by these isoforms of the cytochrome P450 CYP24 promoter was compared in kidney (HEK293 and COS1), tumor-derived colon (Caco-2, LS174T, and HCT15), and mammary (HS578T and MCF7) cell lines. VDRB1 transactivation in response to 1,25(OH)(2)D-3 was greater in Cost and HCT15 cells (145%), lower in HEK293 and Caco-2 cells (70-85%) and similar in other cell lines tested. By contrast, on the cytochrome P450 CYP3A4 promoter, 1,25(OH)(2)D-3-induced VDRB1 transactivation was significantly lower than VDRA in Caco-2 (68%), but comparable to VDRA in HEK293 and COS1 cells. Ligand-dependence of VDRB1 differential transactivation was investigated using the secondary bile acid lithocholic acid (LCA). On the CYP24 promoter LCA-induced transactivation was similar for both isoforms in COS1, whereas in Caco-2 and HEK293 cells VDRB1 was less active. On the CYP3A4 promoter, LCA activation of VDRB1 was comparable to VDRA in all the cell lines tested. Mutational analysis indicated that both the 1,25(OH)(2)D-3 and LCA-regulated activities of both VDR isoforms required a functional ligand-dependent activation function (AF-2) domain. In gel shift assays VDR:DNA complex formation was stronger in the presence of 1,25(OH)(2)D-3 than with LCA. These results indicate that regulation of VDRB1 transactivation activity is dependent on cellular context, promoter, and the nature of the ligand. (c) 2005 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Integrated Pb- and S-isotope investigation of sulphide minerals from the early Archaean of southwest Greenland

We present high-spatial resolution secondary ion mass spectrometry (SIMS) measurements of Pb and S isotopes in sulphides from early Archaean samples at two localities in southwest Greenland. Secondary pyrite from a 3.71 Ga sample of magnetite-quartz banded iron formation in the Isua Greenstone Belt, which has previously yielded unradiogenic Pb consistent with its ancient origin, contains sulphur with a mass independently fractionated (MIF) isotope signature (Delta(33)S =+3.3 parts per thousand). This reflects the secondary mineralization of remobilized sedimentary S carrying a component modified by photochemical reactions in the early Archaean atmosphere. It further represents one of the most extreme positive excursions so far known from the early Archaean rock record. Sulphides from a quartz-pyroxene rock and an ultramafic boudin from the island of Akilia, in the Godth (a) over circle bsfjord, have heterogeneous and generally radiogenic Pb isotopic compositions that we interpret to represent partial re-equilibration of Pb between the sulphides and whole rocks during tectonothermal events at 3.6, 2.7 and 1.6 Ga. Both these samples have Delta(33)S=0 (within analytical error) and therefore show no evidence for MIF sulphur. These data are consistent with previous interpretations that the rock cannot be proven to have a sedimentary origin. Our study illustrates that SIMS S-isotope measurements in ancient rocks can be used to elucidate early atmospheric parameters because of the ability to obtain combined S and Pb-isotope data, but caution must be applied when using such data to infer protolith. When information from geological context, petrography and chronology (i.e. by Pb isotopes) is combined and fully evaluated, Delta(33)S signatures from sulphides and their geological significance can be interpreted with a higher degree of confidence. (c) 2005 Elsevier B.V All rights reserved.

The psychosocial impact of caregiving on young people who have a parent with an illness or disability: Comparisons between young caregivers and noncaregivers

Objective: To investigate the psychosocial impact of young caregiving by empirically validating prominent qualitative themes.. This was achieved through developing an inventory called the Young Caregiver of Parents Inventory (YCOPI) designed to assess these themes and by comparing young caregivers and noncaregivers. Method: Two hundred forty-five participants between 10 and 25 years completed questionnaires: 100 young caregivers and 145 noncaregivers. In addition to the YCOPI, the following variables were measured: demographics, caregiving context, social support, appraisal, coping strategies, and adjustment (health, life satisfaction, distress, positive affect). Results: Eight reliable factors emerged from the YCOPI that described the diverse impacts of caregiving and reflected the key themes reported in prior research. The factors were related to most caregiving context variables and theoretically relevant stress and coping variables. Compared with noncaregivers, young caregivers reported higher levels of young caregiving impact, less reliance on problem-solving coping, and higher somatization and lower life satisfaction. Conclusions: Findings delineate key impacts of young caregiving and highlight the importance of ensuring that measures used in research on young caregivers are sensitive to issues pertinent to this population.

Implicit learning is not subject to blocking

Explicit (aware) learning has been shown to evidence certain characteristics, such as extinction, blocking, occasion setting, and reliance on context. These characteristics have not been assessed in implicit (unaware) learning. The current study investigated whether implicit learning is subject to blocking. Participants completed a cued reaction time task, where they watched rapid presentations of a random sequence of 8 pairs of shapes, and responded to two target shapes. One target was always preceded by a cue. The experimental group completed a pretraining phase where half the cue, one shape, was followed by the target. Both experimental and control groups completed a training phase where both elements of the cue, two shapes, were followed by the target. Both aware and unaware participants evidenced learning, whereby responding was faster for cued than uncued targets. Aware participants in the experimental group responded faster to targets preceded by the pretrained element than by the other element of the cue. Control and unaware experimental participants were faster to respond to targets preceded by either element of the cue. As blocking was only evident in aware participants, but implicit learning was observed in all participants, it is concluded that implicit learning is not subject to blocking.

An Autonomic Framework for Mobile Cloud Computing

This thesis presents the formal definition of a novel Mobile Cloud Computing (MCC) extension of the Networked Autonomic Machine (NAM) framework, a general-purpose conceptual tool which describes large-scale distributed autonomic systems. The introduction of autonomic policies in the MCC paradigm has proved to be an effective technique to increase the robustness and flexibility of MCC systems. In particular, autonomic policies based on continuous resource and connectivity monitoring help automate context-aware decisions for computation offloading. We have also provided NAM with a formalization in terms of a transformational operational semantics in order to fill the gap between its existing Java implementation NAM4J and its conceptual definition. Moreover, we have extended NAM4J by adding several components with the purpose of managing large scale autonomic distributed environments. In particular, the middleware allows for the implementation of peer-to-peer (P2P) networks of NAM nodes. Moreover, NAM mobility actions have been implemented to enable the migration of code, execution state and data. Within NAM4J, we have designed and developed a component, denoted as context bus, which is particularly useful in collaborative applications in that, if replicated on each peer, it instantiates a virtual shared channel allowing nodes to notify and get notified about context events. Regarding the autonomic policies management, we have provided NAM4J with a rule engine, whose purpose is to allow a system to autonomously determine when offloading is convenient. We have also provided NAM4J with trust and reputation management mechanisms to make the middleware suitable for applications in which such aspects are of great interest. To this purpose, we have designed and implemented a distributed framework, denoted as DARTSense, where no central server is required, as reputation values are stored and updated by participants in a subjective fashion. We have also investigated the literature regarding MCC systems. The analysis pointed out that all MCC models focus on mobile devices, and consider the Cloud as a system with unlimited resources. To contribute in filling this gap, we defined a modeling and simulation framework for the design and analysis of MCC systems, encompassing both their sides. We have also implemented a modular and reusable simulator of the model. We have applied the NAM principles to two different application scenarios. First, we have defined a hybrid P2P/cloud approach where components and protocols are autonomically configured according to specific target goals, such as cost-effectiveness, reliability and availability. Merging P2P and cloud paradigms brings together the advantages of both: high availability, provided by the Cloud presence, and low cost, by exploiting inexpensive peers resources. As an example, we have shown how the proposed approach can be used to design NAM-based collaborative storage systems based on an autonomic policy to decide how to distribute data chunks among peers and Cloud, according to cost minimization and data availability goals. As a second application, we have defined an autonomic architecture for decentralized urban participatory sensing (UPS) which bridges sensor networks and mobile systems to improve effectiveness and efficiency. The developed application allows users to retrieve and publish different types of sensed information by using the features provided by NAM4J's context bus. Trust and reputation is managed through the application of DARTSense mechanisms. Also, the application includes an autonomic policy that detects areas characterized by few contributors, and tries to recruit new providers by migrating code necessary to sensing, through NAM mobility actions.

Women, anger, and aggression an interpretative phenomenological analysis

This study reports a qualitative phenomenological investigation of anger and anger-related aggression in the context of the lives of individual women. Semistructured interviews with five women are analyzed using interpretative phenomenological analysis. This inductive approach aims to capture the richness and complexity of the lived experience of emotional life. In particular, it draws attention to the context-dependent and relational dimension of angry feelings and aggressive behavior. Three analytic themes are presented here: the subjective experience of anger, which includes the perceptual confusion and bodily change felt by the women when angry, crying, and the presence of multiple emotions; the forms and contexts of aggression, paying particular attention to the range of aggressive strategies used; and anger as moral judgment, in particular perceptions of injustice and unfairness. The authors conclude by examining the analytic observations in light of phenomenological thinking.

Translation strategies and cross-cultural contraints : a case study of the translation of advertising texts

Since the transfer of a message between two cultures very frequently takes place through the medium of a written text qua communicative event, it would seem useful to attempt to ascertain whether there is any kind of pattern in the use of strategies for the effective interlingual transfer of this message. Awareness of potentially successful strategies, within the constraints of context, text type, intended TL function and TL reader profile will enhance quality and cost-effectiveness (time, effort, financial costs) in the production of the target text. Through contrastive analysis of pairs of advertising texts, SL and TL, French and English, this study will attempt to identify the nature of some recurring choices made by different translators in the attempt to recreate ST information in the TL in such a manner as to reproduce as closely as possible the informative, persuasive and affective functions of the text as advertising material. Whilst recurrence may be seen to be significant in terms of illustrating tendencies with regard to the solution of problems of translation, this would not necessarily be taken as confirmation of the existence of pre-determined or prescriptive rules. These tendencies could, however, be taken as a guide to potential solutions to certain kinds of context-bound and text-type specific problem. Analysis of translated text-pairs taken from the field of advertising should produce examples of constraints posed by the need to select the content, tone and form of the Target Text, in order to ensure maximum efficacy of persuasive effect and to ensure the desired outcome, as determined by the Source Text function. When evaluating the success of a translated advertising text, constraints could be defined in terms of the culture-specific references or assumptions on which a Source Text may build in order to achieve its intended communicative function within the target community.