Selecting crop models for decision making in wheat insurance

In crop insurance, the accuracy with which the insurer quantifies the actual risk is highly dependent on the availability on actual yield data. Crop models might be valuable tools to generate data on expected yields for risk assessment when no historical records are available. However, selecting a crop model for a specific objective, location and implementation scale is a difficult task. A look inside the different crop and soil modules to understand how outputs are obtained might facilitate model choice. The objectives of this paper were (i) to assess the usefulness of crop models to be used within a crop insurance analysis and design and (ii) to select the most suitable crop model for drought risk assessment in semi-arid regions in Spain. For that purpose first, a pre-selection of crop models simulating wheat yield under rainfed growing conditions at the field scale was made, and second, four selected models (Aquacrop, CERES- Wheat, CropSyst and WOFOST) were compared in terms of modelling approaches, process descriptions and model outputs. Outputs of the four models for the simulation of winter wheat growth are comparable when water is not limiting, but differences are larger when simulating yields under rainfed conditions. These differences in rainfed yields are mainly related to the dissimilar simulated soil water availability and the assumed linkages with dry matter formation. We concluded that for the simulation of winter wheat growth at field scale in such semi-arid conditions, CERES-Wheat and CropSyst are preferred. WOFOST is a satisfactory compromise between data availability and complexity when detail data on soil is limited. Aquacrop integrates physiological processes in some representative parameters, thus diminishing the number of input parameters, what is seen as an advantage when observed data is scarce. However, the high sensitivity of this model to low water availability limits its use in the region considered. Contrary to the use of ensembles of crop models, we endorse that efforts be concentrated on selecting or rebuilding a model that includes approaches that better describe the agronomic conditions of the regions in which they will be applied. The use of such complex methodologies as crop models is associated with numerous sources of uncertainty, although these models are the best tools available to get insight in these complex agronomic systems.

Assessment of insurance coverage and claims in rainfall related risksin processing tomato in Western Spain

An extension of guarantees related to rainfall-related risks in the insurance of processing tomato crops hasbeen accompanied with a large increase in claims in Western Spain, suggesting that damages may havebeen underestimated in previous years. A database was built by linking agricultural insurance records,meteorological data from local weather stations, and topographic data. The risk of rainfall-related dam-ages in processing tomato in the Extremenian Guadiana river basin (W Spain) was studied using a logisticmodel. Risks during the growth of the crop and at harvesting were modelled separately. First, the riskrelated to rainfall was modelled as a function of meteorological, terrain and management variables. Theresulting models were used to identify the variables responsible for rainfall-related damages, with a viewto assess the potential impact of extending insurance coverage, and to develop an index to express thesuitability of the cropping system for insurance. The analyses reveal that damages at different stages ofcrop development correspond to different hazards. The geographic dependence of the risk influences the scale at which the model might have validity, which together with the year dependency, hampers the possibilityof implementing index based insurances is questioned.

Sistema de gestión de un banco de tiempo

RESUMEN El presente documento aborda la problemática surgida en torno al desarrollo de una plataforma para gestión de bancos de tiempo mediante tecnología LAMP (Linux + Apache + MySql + PHP). Se mostrarán los resultados del análisis de requisitos, la implementación, la puesta en práctica desde el año 2005, asi como conclusiones y líneas futuras. Para finalizar la documentación, se adjunta una guía para la creación de un banco de tiempo. ABSTRACT This document explains the solution to develop a time bank management platform, using LAMP technology (Linux + Apache + MySql + PHP). This will be focus on the result of the analysis, the implementation, the real implementation working since 2005, conclusions and future working lines. A guide to set up a time bank is attached at the end of the documentation.

Modelos de desarrollo y sistemas de gestión pública: el SNIP peruano, 2000-2014

Esta Tesis tiene dos partes. La Primera Parte es Teórica y Metodológica y trata de la actual crisis de paradigma en las Ciencias Sociales, y de cómo se puede remontar con la Teoría del Pensamiento Complejo, siempre que sus propuestas se centren en modelos empíricos de Análisis de Redes Sociales debidamente matematizados y estadísticamente refrendados. La propuesta del tesista propone enriquecer el actual homo economicus, incorporando la importancia de las relaciones con el grupo (coactivas, coercitivas o motivacionales), a través de un nuevo objeto de estudio: los Proyectos. Es mediante los Proyectos, donde los individuos y los grupos en los que interactúan, transan y organizan sus esfuerzos. El problema reside en que, no existe hasta la fecha, una sistematización y modelización de los Proyectos como objeto de estudio en las Ciencias Sociales. Sin embargo, hay una amplia experiencia de análisis y sistematización de Proyectos tanto en la Economía de la Empresa (Management, Business Administration), como en la Economía Pública. En esta Tesis se estudia todo lo publicado recientemente sobre los Proyectos de Inversión Pública (PIPs) y su eficiencia en Latinoamérica. En la Segunda Parte, centrada en un Trabajo Empírico y su modelización, el tesista crea una Base de Datos (BdD) primaria, a partir del Banco de Proyectos (BdP) del Ministerio de Economía y Finanzas (MEF) del Perú (2001-2014), que recoge todos los Proyectos de Inversión Pública (PIP), cerca de 400.000 PIPs Iniciales, los tabula en 48 categorías y posteriormente, “deja hablar a los datos” jugando a relacionar, correlacionar, inducir hipótesis y verificarlas mediante un sistema que se centra en la operativa tipo “Big Data”. A esto le denomina “triangular” porque mezcla en el esfuerzo, herramientas de Estadística Descriptiva, Estadística Inferencial y Econometría para poder refrendar el conocimiento inducido, que siempre en ciencia, es una mera certeza probabilística. El tesista concluye que en el caso del Sistema Nacional de Inversión Pública del Perú (SNIP) y más específicamente, de los procesos administrativos que emplea -denominados “Ciclo PIP”-, queda claro que se está trabajando con “fenómenos emergentes” cuyo comportamiento no se adapta a una Distribución Normal. Y que dicho comportamiento errático se debe a que la Inversión Pública es cíclica (Ecuación Evolutiva de Price) y a que el “Ciclo PIP” opera a todo nivel (GN, GR, GL) en función de las relaciones entre los miembros que componen su red. Ergo, es un tema a Analizar con Social Network Analysis (Análisis Social de Redes, ARS). El tesista concluye que las redes de “Ciclo PIP” en el Perú fallan principalmente por problemas de escasez de personal técnico multisectorial debidamente cualificado. A manera de conclusión, propone la creación de una Plataforma Web 3.0 (metadatos), que utilice un Sistema de Razonamiento Basado en Casos (SRBC) para aprovechar el conocimiento que dimana de los éxitos y fracasos de los propios PIPs, con el fin de facilitar las gestiones de los miembros de la red que formulan, evalúan y ejecutan los PIPs en el Perú, tanto a nivel Municipal (GP) como Regional (GR) y Nacional (GN).

Costumbrismo y prensa en la Cantabria del siglo XIX

El trabajo es un estudio de las publicaciones de Cantabria durante el siglo XIX, analizando los artículos y composiciones de tipo costumbrista regional.

Radar interferometry techniques for the study of ground subsidence phenomena: a review of practical issues through cases in Spain

Subsidence related to multiple natural and human-induced processes affects an increasing number of areas worldwide. Although this phenomenon may involve surface deformation with 3D displacement components, negative vertical movement, either progressive or episodic, tends to dominate. Over the last decades, differential SAR interferometry (DInSAR) has become a very useful remote sensing tool for accurately measuring the spatial and temporal evolution of surface displacements over broad areas. This work discusses the main advantages and limitations of addressing active subsidence phenomena by means of DInSAR techniques from an end-user point of view. Special attention is paid to the spatial and temporal resolution, the precision of the measurements, and the usefulness of the data. The presented analysis is focused on DInSAR results exploitation of various ground subsidence phenomena (groundwater withdrawal, soil compaction, mining subsidence, evaporite dissolution subsidence, and volcanic deformation) with different displacement patterns in a selection of subsidence areas in Spain. Finally, a cost comparative study is performed for the different techniques applied.

Revisiting the effect of foundation embedment on elastic settlement: A new approach

The effect of foundation embedment on settlement calculation is a widely researched topic in which there is no scientific consensus regarding the magnitude of settlement reduction. In this paper, a non-linear three dimensional Finite Element analysis has been performed with the aim of evaluating the aforementioned effect. For this purpose, 1800 models were run considering different variables, such as the depth and dimensions of the foundation and the Young’s modulus and Poisson’s ratio of the soil. The settlements from models with foundations at surface level and at depth were then compared and the relationship between them established. The statistical analysis of this data allowed two new expressions, with a mean maximum error of 1.80%, for the embedment influence factor of a foundation to be proposed and these to be compared with commonly used corrections. The proposed equations were validated by comparing the settlements calculated with the proposed influence factors and the true settlements measured in several real foundations. From the comprehensive study of all modelled cases, an improved approach, when compared to those proposed by other authors, for the calculation of the true elastic settlements of an embedded foundation is proposed.

Estudio del daño estructural y del posterior refuerzo de un edificio afectado por asientos inducidos por la subsidencia causada por un descenso del nivel piezométrico

La subsidencia del terreno es un riesgo natural consistente en el hundimiento de la superficie terrestre que genera importantes pérdidas económicas y gran alarma social. La subsidencia del terreno puede deberse a numerosas causas, entre ellas la extracción de agua de un acuífero, que se manifiestan en la superficie del terreno mediante deformaciones verticales que pueden variar desde pocos milímetros hasta varios metros a lo largo de periodos de tiempo que varían desde minutos hasta años. El presente trabajo muestra el caso real de un edificio de sótano, bajo y cinco plantas situado en el casco urbano de Murcia (España), seriamente afectado por asientos diferenciales inducidos por la subsidencia del terreno por descenso del nivel piezométrico. El edificio, construido entre 1983 y 1986, está cimentado por medio de una losa de hormigón armado que apoya sobre un estrato de arcillas limosas de consistencia blanda. Los primeros daños se manifiestan en 1995, coincidiendo con la sequía que aquejó a la vega de Murcia entre 1991 y 1995 y que produjo descensos generalizados del nivel freático del orden de 8 m de media y que en el presente caso alcanzan los 10 m, lo que se traduce en importantes asientos de consolidación que han afectado sensiblemente a la estructura. Con objeto de estabilizar la estructura se realizó un recalce de la cimentación mediante micropilotes. Un posterior seguimiento de la estructura mediante un plan de auscultación, ha puesto de manifiesto la validez del refuerzo proyectado.

A simple method to predict elastic settlements in foundations resting on two soils of differing deformability

This paper shows the analysis results obtained from more than 200 finite element method (FEM) models used to calculate the settlement of a foundation resting on two soils of differing deformability. The analysis considers such different parameters as the foundation geometry, the percentage of each soil in contact with the foundation base and the ratio of the soils’ elastic moduli. From the described analysis, it is concluded that the maximum settlement of the foundation, calculated by assuming that the foundation is completely resting on the most deformable soil, can be correlated with the settlement calculated by FEM models through a correction coefficient named “settlement reduction factor” (α). As a consequence, a novel expression is proposed for calculating the real settlement of a foundation resting on two soils of different deformability with maximum errors lower than 1.57%, as demonstrated by the statistical analysis carried out. A guide for the application of the proposed simple method is also explained in the paper. Finally, the proposed methodology has been validated using settlement data from an instrumented foundation, indicating that this is a simple, reliable and quick method which allows the computation of the maximum elastic settlement of a raft foundation, evaluates its suitability and optimises its selection process.

Cálculo del asiento elástico tridimensional de cimentaciones de rigidez variable en terrenos con una capa rígida inclinada

Las fórmulas basadas en la teoría de la elasticidad son ampliamente utilizadas para el cálculo de asientos de cimentaciones, ya que la totalidad de la normativa geotécnica recomienda su empleo. No obstante, estos métodos no cubren todas las situaciones geotécnicamente posibles ya que frecuentemente las condiciones geológicas son complejas. En este trabajo se analiza la influencia de la presencia de una capa rígida inclinada en los asientos elásticos de una cimentación superficial. Para ello se han resuelto 273 modelos tridimensionales no lineales de elementos finitos, variando los parámetros clave del problema: la inclinación y la profundidad de la capa rígida y la rigidez de la cimentación. Finalmente, se ha realizado un análisis estadístico de los resultados de los modelos y se ha propuesto una fórmula que puede ser utilizada en el cálculo de asientos por métodos elásticos, para tener en consideración la presencia de una capa rígida inclinada en profundidad.

Organic and inorganic geochemical measurements of sediment core GeoB7702-3

It has long been known that extreme changes in North African hydroclimate occurred during the late Pleistocene yet many discrepancies exist between sites regarding the timing, duration and abruptness of events such as Heinrich Stadial (HS) 1 and the African Humid Period (AHP). The hydroclimate history of the Nile River is of particular interest due to its lengthy human occupation history yet there are presently few continuous archives from the Nile River corridor, and pre-Holocene studies are rare. Here we present new organic and inorganic geochemical records of Nile Basin hydroclimate from an eastern Mediterranean (EM) Sea sediment core spanning the past 28 ka BP. Our multi-proxy records reflect the fluctuating inputs of Blue Nile versus White Nile material to the EM Sea in response to gradual changes in local insolation and also capture abrupt hydroclimate events driven by remote climate forcings, such as HS1. We find strong evidence for extreme aridity within the Nile Basin evolving in two distinct phases during HS1, from 17.5 to 16 ka BP and from 16 to 14.5 ka BP, whereas peak wet conditions during the AHP are observed from 9 to 7 ka BP. We find that zonal movements of the Congo Air Boundary (CAB), and associated shifts in the dominant moisture source (Atlantic versus Indian Ocean moisture) to the Nile Basin, likely contributed to abrupt hydroclimate variability in northern East Africa during HS1 and the AHP as well as to non-linear behavior of hydroclimate proxies. We note that different proxies show variable gradual and abrupt responses to individual hydroclimate events, and thus might have different inherent sensitivities, which may be a factor contributing to the controversy surrounding the abruptness of past events such as the AHP. During the Late Pleistocene the Nile Basin experienced extreme hydroclimate fluctuations, which presumably impacted Paleolithic cultures residing along the Nile corridor.

Emilio Zola; estudios de estética y de crítica.

Mode of access: Internet.

Our Catholic heritage in Texas, 1519-1936;

Includes bibliographies.

Spanish explorers in the southern United States, 1528-1543 : The narrative of Alvar Nuñez Cabeça de Vaca,

Mode of access: Internet.

Armas con la espada y broquel de Don Pablo Cecina Rica y Fergel, y tambien contra otros autores que han escrito del juego de las damas /

Mode of access: Internet.