From the 'Miracle' to the 'Lost Decade': intersectoral transfers and external credit in the Brazilian economy

The present paper examines the Brazilian experience from the 'Economic Miracle' to the 'Lost Decade'. Its aim is to advance an alternative measurement of the flows of extraordinary wealth (i.e. ground-rent and net external credit) available for appropriation in the Brazilian economy and to asses their relevance in sustaining the process of accumulation of industrial capital. That is done in order to provide further and more accurate evidence to the claim that the evolution of the Brazilian process of capital accumulation has been extremely dependent on the evolution of those masses of extraordinary wealth.

Brazilian, Chinese, and Indian exports: is the regional market really a source of learning?

In some Latin American countries the exporting activity starts at a regional level, with producers only later venturing into more competitive markets. The implicit risk is that a country might never progress from the regional stage to a more global market. This article compares the experiences of Brazil, China and India. It is shown that Brazil relied on the regional market far more intensely than these Asian countries. There were clear gains accruing to China and India for having exploited more sophisticated markets from the very beginning of their export drive.

Public-private partnership investments in dry ports – Russian logistics markets and risks

The investments have always been considered as an essential backbone and so-called ‘locomotive’ for the competitive economies. However, in various countries, the state has been put under tight budget constraints for the investments in capital intensive projects. In response to this situation, the cooperation between public and private sector has grown based on public-private mechanism. The promotion of favorable arrangement for collaboration between public and private sectors for the provision of policies, services, and infrastructure in Russia can help to address the problems of dry ports development that neither municipalities nor the private sector can solve alone. Especially, the stimulation of public-private collaboration is significant under the exposure to externalities that affect the magnitude of the risks during all phases of project realization. In these circumstances, the risk in the projects also is becoming increasingly a part of joint research and risk management practice, which is viewed as a key approach, aiming to take active actions on existing global and specific factors of uncertainties. Meanwhile, a relatively little progress has been made on the inclusion of the resilience aspects into the planning process of a dry ports construction that would instruct the capacity planner, on how to mitigate the occurrence of disruptions that may lead to million dollars of losses due to the deviation of the future cash flows from the expected financial flows on the project. The current experience shows that the existing methodological base is developed fragmentary within separate steps of supply chain risk management (SCRM) processes: risk identification, risk evaluation, risk mitigation, risk monitoring and control phases. The lack of the systematic approach hinders the solution of the problem of risk management processes of dry port implementation. Therefore, management of various risks during the investments phases of dry port projects still presents a considerable challenge from the practical and theoretical points of view. In this regard, the given research became a logical continuation of fundamental research, existing in the financial models and theories (e.g., capital asset pricing model and real option theory), as well as provided a complementation for the portfolio theory. The goal of the current study is in the design of methods and models for the facilitation of dry port implementation through the mechanism of public-private partnership on the national market that implies the necessity to mitigate, first and foremost, the shortage of the investments and consequences of risks. The problem of the research was formulated on the ground of the identified contradictions. They rose as a continuation of the trade-off between the opportunities that the investors can gain from the development of terminal business in Russia (i.e. dry port implementation) and risks. As a rule, the higher the investment risk, the greater should be their expected return. However, investors have a different tolerance for the risks. That is why it would be advisable to find an optimum investment. In the given study, the optimum relates to the search for the efficient portfolio, which can provide satisfaction to the investor, depending on its degree of risk aversion. There are many theories and methods in finance, concerning investment choices. Nevertheless, the appropriateness and effectiveness of particular methods should be considered with the allowance of the specifics of the investment projects. For example, the investments in dry ports imply not only the lump sum of financial inflows, but also the long-term payback periods. As a result, capital intensity and longevity of their construction determine the necessity from investors to ensure the return on investment (profitability), along with the rapid return on investment (liquidity), without precluding the fact that the stochastic nature of the project environment is hardly described by the formula-based approach. The current theoretical base for the economic appraisals of the dry port projects more often perceives net present value (NPV) as a technique superior to other decision-making criteria. For example, the portfolio theory, which considers different risk preference of an investor and structures of utility, defines net present value as a better criterion of project appraisal than discounted payback period (DPP). Meanwhile, in business practice, the DPP is more popular. Knowing that the NPV is based on the assumptions of certainty of project life, it cannot be an accurate appraisal approach alone to determine whether or not the project should be accepted for the approval in the environment that is not without of uncertainties. In order to reflect the period or the project’s useful life that is exposed to risks due to changes in political, operational, and financial factors, the second capital budgeting criterion – discounted payback period is profoundly important, particularly for the Russian environment. Those statements represent contradictions that exist in the theory and practice of the applied science. Therefore, it would be desirable to relax the assumptions of portfolio theory and regard DPP as not fewer relevant appraisal approach for the assessment of the investment and risk measure. At the same time, the rationality of the use of both project performance criteria depends on the methods and models, with the help of which these appraisal approaches are calculated in feasibility studies. The deterministic methods cannot ensure the required precision of the results, while the stochastic models guarantee the sufficient level of the accuracy and reliability of the obtained results, providing that the risks are properly identified, evaluated, and mitigated. Otherwise, the project performance indicators may not be confirmed during the phase of project realization. For instance, the economic and political instability can result in the undoing of hard-earned gains, leading to the need for the attraction of the additional finances for the project. The sources of the alternative investments, as well as supportive mitigation strategies, can be studied during the initial phases of project development. During this period, the effectiveness of the investments undertakings can also be improved by the inclusion of the various investors, e.g. Russian Railways’ enterprises and other private companies in the dry port projects. However, the evaluation of the effectiveness of the participation of different investors in the project lack the methods and models that would permit doing the particular feasibility study, foreseeing the quantitative characteristics of risks and their mitigation strategies, which can meet the tolerance of the investors to the risks. For this reason, the research proposes a combination of Monte Carlo method, discounted cash flow technique, the theory of real options, and portfolio theory via a system dynamics simulation approach. The use of this methodology allows for comprehensive risk management process of dry port development to cover all aspects of risk identification, risk evaluation, risk mitigation, risk monitoring, and control phases. A designed system dynamics model can be recommended for the decision-makers on the dry port projects that are financed via a public-private partnership. It permits investors to make a decision appraisal based on random variables of net present value and discounted payback period, depending on different risks factors, e.g. revenue risks, land acquisition risks, traffic volume risks, construction hazards, and political risks. In this case, the statistical mean is used for the explication of the expected value of the DPP and NPV; the standard deviation is proposed as a characteristic of risks, while the elasticity coefficient is applied for rating of risks. Additionally, the risk of failure of project investments and guaranteed recoupment of capital investment can be considered with the help of the model. On the whole, the application of these modern methods of simulation creates preconditions for the controlling of the process of dry port development, i.e. making managerial changes and identifying the most stable parameters that contribute to the optimal alternative scenarios of the project realization in the uncertain environment. System dynamics model allows analyzing the interactions in the most complex mechanism of risk management process of the dry ports development and making proposals for the improvement of the effectiveness of the investments via an estimation of different risk management strategies. For the comparison and ranking of these alternatives in their order of preference to the investor, the proposed indicators of the efficiency of the investments, concerning the NPV, DPP, and coefficient of variation, can be used. Thus, rational investors, who averse to taking increased risks unless they are compensated by the commensurate increase in the expected utility of a risky prospect of dry port development, can be guided by the deduced marginal utility of investments. It is computed on the ground of the results from the system dynamics model. In conclusion, the outlined theoretical and practical implications for the management of risks, which are the key characteristics of public-private partnerships, can help analysts and planning managers in budget decision-making, substantially alleviating the effect from various risks and avoiding unnecessary cost overruns in dry port projects.

Historical origins of Brazilian relative backwardness

This paper relies on some data to identify the 19th century as the major period in which Brazil economy lagged behind some chosen benchmarking countries, as the USA, Canada, New Zealand, Australia and some European periphery countries. To identify the reasons for this an exercise using immigration data was used to make a decomposition of the sources of growth of the proportion of the USA per capita GDP to the Brazilian one. The results indicate that the imported human capital was responsible for 59% to 88% of this total growth between 1820 and 1900.

The Brazilian deindustrialization: financialization is not guilty

The financialization of the Brazilian economy is often criticized as being responsible of the slowdown of capital accumulation in this country. Indeed, very high interest rates are maintained in order to finance the public debt, and this fosters capitalists to get more Treasury bonds rather than to invest in the productive area. Nevertheless, the evolution of the profit rate in this area also explains the particular relation existing between capitalists, finance and productive investment, as Marx showed it more than a century ago.

Nature of the state economic expanded functions in the Brazilian economy*

ABSTRACT The paper discusses the dynamics of capital accumulation in Latin America economies. The hypothesis is that in these economies the role of the State is comparatively broader than in the economies of the centers of the capitalism by structural reasons. The argument is mainly based on Marx and Kalecki, besides historical elements of Latin America economies, particularly the Brazilian economy. Then the paper explores the dynamics consequences of this nature at the national levels, concluding that this condition gives a higher degree of instability.

Tests of Conditional Asset Pricing Models in the Brazilian Stock Market

In this paper, we test a version of the conditional CAPM with respect to a local market portfolio, proxied by the Brazilian stock index during the 1976-1992 period. We also test a conditional APT model by using the difference between the 30-day rate (Cdb) and the overnight rate as a second factor in addition to the market portfolio in order to capture the large inflation risk present during this period. The conditional CAPM and APT models are estimated by the Generalized Method of Moments (GMM) and tested on a set of size portfolios created from a total of 25 securities exchanged on the Brazilian markets. The inclusion of this second factor proves to be crucial for the appropriate pricing of the portfolios.

Tests of Conditional Asset Pricing Models in the Brazilian Stock Market

In this paper, we test a version of the conditional CAPM with respect to a local market portfolio, proxied by the Brazilian stock index during the 1976-1992 period. We also test a conditional APT model by using the difference between the 30-day rate (Cdb) and the overnight rate as a second factor in addition to the market portfolio in order to capture the large inflation risk present during this period. the conditional CAPM and APT models are estimated by the Generalized Method of Moments (GMM) and tested on a set of size portfolios created from a total of 25 securities exchanged on the Brazilian markets. the inclusion of this second factor proves to be crucial for the appropriate pricing of the portfolios.

Certification of community-based forest enterprises (CFEs): limits of the Brazilian experiences

The Brazilian Amazon is one of the world’s largest tropical forests. It supplies more than 80 % of Brazil’s timber production and makes this nation the second largest producer of tropical wood. The forestry sector is of major importance in terms of economic production and employment creation. However, the Brazilian Amazon is also known for its high deforestation rate and for its rather unsustainably managed timber resources, a fact which puts in the balance the long-term future of the forestry sector in the region. Since the mid- 1990s, with strong support from World Wildlife Fund (WWF), the number of tropical forests certified by the Forest Stewardship Council (FSC) has significantly increased. This is especially true for projects sponsored by large scale companies. The number of community- based forest management projects has also increased. Certification of community-based forest enterprises (CFEs) was initially a goal for the sponsors and community members. Certification is viewed as a way to reach alternative timber markets. In Brazil, the state of Acre has the highest concentration of CFEs certified by FSC. Most of them have been implemented with the support of environmental NGOs and public funds. Environmental NGOs strongly defend the advantages of certification for communities; however, in reality, this option is not that advantageous. Despite all the efforts, the number of participants in each project remains low. Why is this occurring? In this paper, we analyze the underlying motives of a few individual’s participation in CFEs certification projects. We aim to present and discuss some factors that shape the success of CFEs and their later certification. The results are based on surveys conducted in two certified CFEs in the state of Acre.

Le capital virtuel : entre compétition, survie et réputation

Les avancées technologiques liées à l’internet ont permis une démocratisation des outils de communication et une transformation des relations interpersonnelles. L’impact de ces changements s’est ressenti autant dans la sphère légitime que dans les marchés criminels. Ces derniers ont migré, au cours des dernières années, vers des plateformes en ligne qui leur permettent de mieux gérer les risques associés avec leurs activités illégales. Cette thèse s’intéresse à l’impact de l’internet sur la criminalité et sur l’adaptation des criminels à cet environnement virtuel. Ces derniers forment maintenant des communautés en ligne et gardent le contact entre eux à l’aide de salles de clavardage et de forums de discussions. Nous nous intéresserons dans cette thèse à trois formes particulières de crime soit la fraude de propriété intellectuelle (la scène des warez), le piratage d’ordinateurs (les botnets) ainsi que la fraude de données personnelles et financières (le carding). Chacune de ces formes de crime sera analysée à l’aide d’un article publié ou présentement en évaluation. L’article sur la scène des warez décrit l'organisation sociale ainsi que la distribution de la reconnaissance dans la communauté des pirates informatiques. Les systèmes de délinquance (Sutherland, 1947) et l’individualisme réseauté (Boase & Wellman, 2006) sont utilisés pour théoriser l'organisation sociale et la distribution de la reconnaissance dans la scène warez. L’article sur les botnets tente de comprendre la distribution de la réputation dans une communauté de criminels. En utilisant les données d’un forum de discussion où des botmasters louent et achètent des biens et services illégaux, cette recherche modélise les facteurs qui permettent d’augmenter le niveau de réputation de certains acteurs. Finalement l’article sur le carding mesure le lien entre la réputation telle que développée par Glückler & Armbrüster (2003) et la performance criminelle. Notre thèse démontre que l’internet a eu un effet transformateur sur la criminalité à six niveaux : 1) l’augmentation de la facilité à trouver des co-criminels; 2) l’augmentation de la compétition entre les criminels; 3) l’augmentation du nombre de victimes; 4) la diminution des risques d’arrestation; 5) l’augmentation du taux de réussite des criminels et; 6) les changements dans l’équilibre entre criminels, victimes et protecteurs. Elle nous permet également de démontrer l’importance de la réputation, le capital virtuel, dans les marchés criminels en ligne.

Agricultural Production and Yield Estimation: Two distinctive aspects of Brazilian Agriculture and a perspective on world food problems

Brazil has been increasing its importance in agricultural markets. The reasons are well known to be the relative abundance of land, the increasing technology used in crops, and the development of the agribusiness sector which allow for a fast response to price stimuli. The elasticity of acreage response to increases in expected return is estimated for Soybeans in a dynamic (long term) error correction model. Regarding yield patterns, a large variation in the yearly rates of growth in yield is observed, climate being probably the main source of this variation which result in ‘good’ and ‘bad’ years. In South America, special attention should be given to the El Niño and La Niña phenomena, both said to have important effects on rainfalls patterns and consequently in yield. The influence on El Niño and La Niña in historical data is examined and some ways of estimating the impact of climate on yield of Soybean and Corn markets are proposed. Possible implications of climate change may apply.

Estrategias de tercerización en Colombia como centro de operaciones enfocado a los Call Centers en Barranquilla

El sector BPO&O es un sector con alto potencial en Colombia que aún se encuentra Incipiente. Dentro de este sector, los Call Centers juegan un papel importante para su desarrollo y Barranquilla posee grandes cualidades para permitir este crecimiento si se plantean las estrategias adecuadas.

Valores del capital humano y las competencias del líder que facilitan la implantación de la estrategia organizacional

La obtención de una ventaja competitiva, el desarrollo, el crecimiento, la perdurabilidad, entre otros, son los aspectos que buscan las organizaciones a través de las estrategias que se definen. Sin embargo, no es suficiente con diseñar las metas y los objetivos que se quieren alcanzar, es necesario aterrizar estos propósitos en planes de acción e involucrar a todos los miembros de la organización, lo cual se consigue a través de la implantación de la estrategia. En este sentido, la etapa de implantación de la estrategia en una organización, da curso al camino establecido en la etapa de formulación de la estrategia, por lo tanto, se relaciona directamente con su éxito o su fracaso. No obstante, este proceso no depende de algunos pocos miembros de la organización, de directivos o de funcionarios, sino que depende de la buena sincronización y armonía de todos aquellos que hacen parte de ella. La presente investigación a través de la revisión teórica y de evidencias empíricas, busca poner de manifiesto la incidencia de dos aspectos clave en la organización sobre la implantación de la estrategia, por un lado, los líderes, a partir de sus competencias interpersonales y por otro el capital humano, a partir de sus valores. Los resultados obtenidos muestran que tanto las competencias del líder como los valores del capital humano son determinantes para la adecuada implantación de la estrategia organizacional.

De lo micro a lo macro prudencial: Un análisis de la supervisión bancaria desde la econometría espacial

La crisis que se desató en el mercado hipotecario en Estados Unidos en 2008 y que logró propagarse a lo largo de todo sistema financiero, dejó en evidencia el nivel de interconexión que actualmente existe entre las entidades del sector y sus relaciones con el sector productivo, dejando en evidencia la necesidad de identificar y caracterizar el riesgo sistémico inherente al sistema, para que de esta forma las entidades reguladoras busquen una estabilidad tanto individual, como del sistema en general. El presente documento muestra, a través de un modelo que combina el poder informativo de las redes y su adecuación a un modelo espacial auto regresivo (tipo panel), la importancia de incorporar al enfoque micro-prudencial (propuesto en Basilea II), una variable que capture el efecto de estar conectado con otras entidades, realizando así un análisis macro-prudencial (propuesto en Basilea III).