Predicting community responses to perturbations in the face of imperfect knowledge and network complexity

How best to predict the effects of perturbations to ecological communities has been a long-standing goal for both applied and basic ecology. This quest has recently been revived by new empirical data, new analysis methods, and increased computing speed, with the promise that ecologically important insights may be obtainable from a limited knowledge of community interactions. We use empirically based and simulated networks of varying size and connectance to assess two limitations to predicting perturbation responses in multispecies communities: (1) the inaccuracy by which species interaction strengths are empirically quantified and (2) the indeterminacy of species responses due to indirect effects associated with network size and structure. We find that even modest levels of species richness and connectance (similar to 25 pairwise interactions) impose high requirements for interaction strength estimates because system indeterminacy rapidly overwhelms predictive insights. Nevertheless, even poorly estimated interaction strengths provide greater average predictive certainty than an approach that uses only the sign of each interaction. Our simulations provide guidance in dealing with the trade-offs involved in maximizing the utility of network approaches for predicting dynamics in multispecies communities.

Perturbations to trophic interactions and the stability of complex food webs

The pattern of predator-prey interactions is thought to be a key determinant of ecosystem processes and stability. Complex ecological networks are characterized by distributions of interaction strengths that are highly skewed, with many weak and few strong interactors present. Theory suggests that this pattern promotes stability as weak interactors dampen the destabilizing potential of strong interactors. Here, we present an experimental test of this hypothesis and provide empirical evidence that the loss of weak interactors can destabilize communities in nature. We ranked 10 marine consumer species by the strength of their trophic interactions. We removed the strongest and weakest of these interactors from experimental food webs containing >100 species. Extinction of strong interactors produced a dramatic trophic cascade and reduced the temporal stability of key ecosystem process rates, community diversity and resistance to changes in community composition. Loss of weak interactors also proved damaging for our experimental ecosystems, leading to reductions in the temporal and spatial stability of ecosystem process rates, community diversity, and resistance. These results highlight the importance of conserving species to maintain the stabilizing pattern of trophic interactions in nature, even if they are perceived to have weak effects in the system.

Press perturbations and indirect effects in real food webs

The prediction of the effects of disturbances in natural systems is limited by the general lack of knowledge on the strength of species interactions, i.e., the effect of one species on the population growth rate of another, and by the uncertainty of the effects that may be manifested via indirect pathways within the food web. Here we explored the consequences of changes in species populations for the remaining species within nine exceptionally well-characterized empirical food webs, for which, unlike the vast majority of other published webs, feeding links have been fully quantied. Using the inverse of the Jacobian matrix, we found that perturbations to species with few connections have larger net effects (considering both direct and indirect pathways between two species) on the rest of the food web than do disturbances to species that are highly connected. For 40% of predator-prey links, predators had positive net effects on prey populations, due to the predominance of indirect interactions. Our results highlight the fundamental, but often counterintuitive, role of indirect effects for the maintenance of food web complexity and biodiversity.

Predictions of large events on a spring-block model

We study the predictability of a theoretical model for earthquakes, using a pattern recognition algorithm similar to the CN and M8 algorithms known in seismology. The model, which is a stochastic spring-block model with both global correlation and local interaction, becomes more predictable as the strength of the global correlation or the local interaction is increased.

Selective block in erythropoietin-induced differentiation of growth factor-independent retrovirally-infected TF-1 cells

The erythroleukaemic cell line TF-1, infected with either the pBabe neo retrovirus or the retrovirus bearing the human erythropoietin (hEpo) gene, developed three growth factor-independent clones. Erythropoietin (Epo), interleukin-3 (IL-3) and granulocyte-macrophage colony stimulating factor (GM-CSF) accelerated the proliferation of these clones. Autonomous growth of the clones was independent of Epo because it was not altered by Epo anti-sense oligonucleotides, nor was Epo detectable in culture supernatants. Cells from the mutant clones could not be induced by Epo to express glycophorin A and haemoglobin synthesis was markedly reduced. Haemin reversed the block in Epo-induced haemoglobin synthesis. Acquisition of growth factor-independence appears to be linked with the selective loss of differentiation capacity. These cells may provide a useful model for the study of the mechanisms involved in leukaemic transformation.

The effect of construction pattern and unit interlock on the structural behaviour of block pavements

The maintenance or even replacement of cracked pavements requires considerable financial resources and puts a large burden on the budgets of local councils. In addition to these costs, local councils also face liability claims arising from uneven or cracked pedestrian pavements. These currently cost the Manchester City Council and Preston City Council around £6 million a year each. Design procedures are empirical. A better understanding of the interaction between paving blocks, bedding sand and subbase was necessary in order to determine the mode of failure of pavements under load. Increasing applied stress was found to mobilise ‘‘rotational interlock’’, providing increased pavement stiffness and thus increased load dissipation resulting in lower transmitted stress on the subgrade. The indications from the literature
review were that pavements are designed to fail by excessive deformation and that paving blocks remained uncracked at failure. This was confirmed with experimental data which was obtained from tests on segments of pavements that were laid/constructed in a purpose built test frame in the laboratory.

IMPROVED POSTFILTERING TECHNIQUE FOR BLOCK QUANTISATION OF SPEECH.

A modified comb filtering technique is proposed which can be used to reduce framing noise generated when speech signals are transform-coded or vector-quantized. Application of this filter to 9. 6 kbit/s speech in a vector transform coder has been found to improve the perceptual quality of the coded speech.

Systolic building block for high performance recursive filtering

A novel bit level systolic array is presented that can be used as a building block in the construction of recursive digital filters. The circuit accepts bit-parallel input data, is pipelined at the bit level, and exhibits a very high throughput rate. The most important feature of the circuit is that it allows recursive operations to be implemented directly without incurring the large m cycle latency (where m is approximately the word length) normally associated with such systems. The use of this circuit in the construction of both first- and second-order IIR (infinite-impulse-response) filters is described.