Approximate knowledge of rationality and correlated equilibria

We extend Aumann's theorem [Aumann 1987], deriving correlated equilibria as a consequence of common priors and common knowledge of rationality, by explicitly allowing for non-rational behavior. Wereplace the assumption of common knowledge of rationality with a substantially weaker one, joint p-belief of rationality, where agents believe the other agents are rational with probability p or more. We show that behavior in this case constitutes a kind of correlated equilibrium satisfying certain p-belief constraints, and that it varies continuously in the parameters p and, for p sufficiently close to one,with high probability is supported on strategies that survive the iterated elimination of strictly dominated strategies. Finally, we extend the analysis to characterizing rational expectations of interimtypes, to games of incomplete information, as well as to the case of non-common priors.

Measuring strategic uncertainty in coordination games

This paper explores three aspects of strategic uncertainty: its relation to risk, predictability of behavior and subjective beliefs of players. In a laboratory experiment we measure subjects certainty equivalents for three coordination games and one lottery. Behavior in coordination games is related to risk aversion, experience seeking, and age.From the distribution of certainty equivalents we estimate probabilities for successful coordination in a wide range of games. For many games, success of coordination is predictable with a reasonable error rate. The best response to observed behavior is close to the global-game solution. Comparing choices in coordination games with revealed risk aversion, we estimate subjective probabilities for successful coordination. In games with a low coordination requirement, most subjects underestimate the probability of success. In games with a high coordination requirement, most subjects overestimate this probability. Estimating probabilistic decision models, we show that the quality of predictions can be improved when individual characteristics are taken into account. Subjects behavior is consistent with probabilistic beliefs about the aggregate outcome, but inconsistent with probabilistic beliefs about individual behavior.

Economic growth and investment in the Arab world

This paper analyses the economic growth performance in the Arab world overthe last forty years. The Arab world has managed to reduce povertyperformance despite its relatively disappointing growth performance. Werelate this poor performance of both oil and non-oil producers toinvestment. Contrary to widespread belief, we do not find evidence that lowquantity of investment is the main of low growth. The decline in theinvestment rate followed rather than preceded the reduction in the aggregategrowth rate. We conclude that the low quality of investment projects is thekey determinant of growth. The excessive reliance on public investment, thelow quality of financial institutions, the bad business environment (due topolitical and social instability and to excessive public intervention andoverregulation) and the low quality of human capital are importantdeterminants of systematically unproductive investment decisions and, thus,low economic growth.

With a bang, not a whimper: Pricking Germany's "stock market bubble" in 1927 and the slide into depression

In May 1927, the German central bank intervenedindirectly to reduce lending to equity investors.The crash that followed ended the only stockmarket boom during Germany s relative stabilization 1924-28. This paper examines thefactors that lead to the intervention as well asits consequences. We argue that genuine concernabout the exuberant level of the stock market,in addition to worries about an inflow offoreign funds, tipped the scales in favour ofintervention. The evidence strongly suggeststhat the German central bank under HjalmarSchacht was wrong to be concerned aboutstockprices-there was no bubble. Also, theReichsbank was mistaken in its belief thata fall in the market would reduce theimportance of short-term foreign borrowing,and help to ease conditions in the money market.The misguided intervention had important realeffects. Investment suffered, helping to tipGermany into depression.

Free entry does not imply zero profits

Traditional economic wisdom says that free entry in a market will drive profits down to zero. This conclusion is usually drawn under the assumption of perfect information. We assumethat a priori there exists imperfect information about theprofitability of the market, but that potential entrants maylearn the demand curve perfectly at negligible cost byengaging in market research. Even if in equilibrium firmslearn the demand perfectly, profits may be strictly positivebecause of insufficient entry. The mere fact that it will notbecome common knowledge that every entrant has perfectinformation about demand causes this surprising result. Belief means doubt. Knowing means certainty. Introduction to the Kabalah.

Analyse der Hepatitis-C-Situation bei den drogenkonsumierenden Personen in der Schweiz

Die Analyse der Hepatitis-C-Situation bei den drogenkonsumierenden Personen in der Schweiz beruht auf verschiedenen Methoden: Analyse der publizierten und grauen Literatur zu diesem Thema, Sekundäranalyse verfügbarer Daten, Befragung nationaler Fachpersonen, Befragung drogenkonsumierender Personen (DU), Fallstudien in vier Kantonen (Zürich, Waadt, Aargau, Wallis), Internetumfrage bei den Einrichtungen, die DU stationär oder ambulant behandeln, sowie bei den niederschwelligen Einrichtungen zur Risikominderung. In den vergangenen zwei Jahrzehnten erreichte die Zahl der neu gemeldeten Infektionen mit dem Hepatitis-C-Virus (HCV) Ende der 90er-Jahre eine Spitze mit mehr als 2500 Fällen pro Jahr, wobei mehr als 30 % dieser Fälle Personen betrafen, die intravenös Drogen konsumieren (IDU). Die Zahl neu gemeldeter Fälle sank anschliessend bis auf 1500 Fälle im Jahr 2011 und stieg dann wieder auf mehr als 1700 Fälle im Jahr 2013 an. Der Anteil der IDU belief sich auf etwas mehr 20 % (436 Fälle, kein Wiederanstieg der Anzahl neuer Fälle in dieser Bevölkerungsgruppe). Die für die Gesamtbevölkerung der Schweiz geschätzte Prävalenz der HCV-Infektionen bewegt sich je nach Autor zwischen 0,7 % und 1,75 %. Bei Männern, die Sex mit Männern haben (MSM), ist dieser Wert etwas höher (2 %). Bei Staatsangehörigen aus Ländern mit einer höheren Prävalenz (Afrika südlich der Sahara, bestimmte Länder des Nahen Ostens und Südostasiens) ist die Prävalenzrate vermutlich erhöht; es sind jedoch keine Werte bekannt. Auch in Gefängnissen ist die HCV-Prävalenz höher als in der Gesamtbevölkerung, da DU und Staatsangehörige aus Ländern mit höherer Prävalenz stärker vertreten sind (zwischen 5 und 10 %). Es wird davon ausgegangen, dass es bei etwa zwei Drittel der Fälle zu einem chronischen Krankheitsverlauf kommt.

Elicited beliefs and social information in modified dictator games: What do dictators believe other dictators do?

We use subjects actions in modified dictator games to perform a within-subject classification ofindividuals into four different types of interdependent preferences: Selfish, Social Welfaremaximizers, Inequity Averse and Competitive. We elicit beliefs about other subjects actions inthe same modified dictator games to test how much of the existent heterogeneity in others actions is known by subjects. We find that subjects with different interdependent preferences infact have different beliefs about others actions. In particular, Selfish individuals cannotconceive others being non-Selfish while Social Welfare maximizers are closest to the actualdistribution of others actions. We finally provide subjects with information on other subjects actions and re-classify individuals according to their (new) actions in the same modified dictatorgames. We find that social information does not affect Selfish individuals, but that individualswith interdependent preferences are more likely to change their behavior and tend to behavemore selfishly.

Cannabis use as a means of socialization?: new consumption patterns among heavy users

Purpose: After tobacco and alcohol, cannabis is the most used substance among adolescents in Switzerland. Our aim is to assess whether cannabis use has become an ordinary means of socialization. We hypothesize that cannabis consumption has become a normative, although still illegal, behavior. Methods: As part of a larger qualitative study aimed at assessing new ways [patterns] of cannabis consumption, 16 daily cannabis consumers (11 males) and 2 former heavy consumers (both females), aged 15 to 20 years, participated in interviews and focus groups. Data were transcribed verbatim and analyzed using Atlas.ti qualitative analysis software. Results: Most consumers define the beginning of their consumption as a moment when they made new friends. They commonly use cannabis in group settings, which encourages the belief that all adolescents use cannabis. Thus, cannabis is mainly identified as an everyday social act. Joints are smoked like cigarettes: at all times of the day, during or after school or work with peers, often starting at lunch break, and mostly in public places. Friends offer a joint in a group setting, much like beer in a bar, as a means of making contact. Consumption invariably increases while socializing on vacation: "During vacation, we smoke up to 10-15 joints a day; at the end we're just dead." Additionally, in order to obtain cannabis, consumers have to be part of the right networks; they generally have several dealers to assure their supply, buy and sell themselves, or practice group-buying. As a result, all friends or acquaintances of consumers are themselves cannabis users. For instance, 4 boys, who say they are best friends, always smoke together and that, in order to quit, "All four of us should say to ourselves, 'Okay, now, let's all stop smoking'. That would be the only solution. . .but it would be impossible!" The 2 former consumers state that when they started using cannabis, "I found myself little by little in a vicious circle where I saw only people who also smoked". When they quit, they separated from their group of friends: "Either you make new friends who don't smoke or you smoke." Conclusions: Discussions with consumers demonstrate a normative facet of cannabis consumption as part of teenage socialization. Consequently, cannabis consumers develop a significant dependency since a majority of their friends use cannabis and their consumption involves most of their daily social life. Our study highlights the need for clear messages about the harmful aspects of using this substance while also suggesting that cessation efforts should include helping users separate from their consumption milieu. Sources of Support: Dept. of Public Health of the canton of Vaud.

When "hope springs eternal": The role of chance in risk taking

In most naturally occurring situations, success depends on both skill and chance. We contrastexperimental market entry decisions where payoffs depend on skill as opposed tocombinations of skill and chance. Our data show differential attitudes toward chance by thosewhose self-assessed skills are low and high. Making chance more important induces greateroptimism for the former who start taking more risk, while the latter maintain a belief that highlevels of skill are sufficient to overcome the vagaries of chance. Finally, although weobserved excess entry (i.e., too many participants entered markets), this could not beattributed to overconfidence.

Estratègies de cura i presa de decisions en persones grans amb dependència ingressades en una unitat geriàtrica d'atenció intermèdia : estudi descriptiu

Aquest estudi té com objectiu observar les relacions entre les estratègies de cura (formal, informal, mixta) que fan servir els cuidadors de persones grans dependents, la seva situació social i les seves motivacions per la decisió respecte a com fan la cura. L’estat del tema destaca el predomini de les cures informals sobre les formals en els models de benestar mediterranis i la rellevància de la interacció entre factors personals socioculturals i les polítiques socials en la presa de decisions individuals sobre la cura de la dependència. La llei de la dependència, de recent implementació a l’Estat espanyol, ha universalitzat l’accés als recursos formals, creant un nou paradigma d’interacció cuidadors-recursos. Es tracta d’un estudi observacional, transversal, descriptiu de tipus mixt quantitatiu/qualitatiu realitzat a partir d’entrevistes individuals als cuidadors de dependents ingressats en una unitat geriàtrica d’atenció intermèdia. Es recullen dades sobre el context sociofamiliar, l’estratègia de cura, l’autopercepció i les motivacions. Els resultats mostren que els cuidadors combinen prestacions econòmiques i serveis (públics i privats) per adaptar al màxim l’estratègia a les condicions del dependent i a les seves pròpies. Tenen la convicció generalitzada que l’atenció cal fer-la al domicili per motius de reciprocitat i respecte a la persona cuidada. El pas a l’atenció residencial és una decisió molt difícil pels cuidadors. La implantació de la llei de la dependència ha normalitzat la relació entre cuidadors i recursos formals, però la burocratització i la insuficiència de l’oferta de serveis no afavoreixen canvis substancials en la provisió de l’ajut, que continua essent majoritàriament informal. La millora en la percepció de continuïtat d’atenció entre el domicili i la residència, i també en la gestió i l’oferta de serveis formals públics es presenten com a reptes de treball importants al nostre país.

Social Cognition is not Reducible to Theory of Mind. When Children use Deontic Rules to Predict Others' Behaviors

The objective of this paper is to discuss whether children have a capacity for deonticreasoning that is irreducible to mentalizing. The results of two experiments point tothe existence of such non-mentalistic understanding and prediction of the behaviourof others. In Study 1, young children (3- and 4-year-olds) were told different versionsof classic false-belief tasks, some of which were modified by the introduction of a ruleor a regularity. When the task (a standard change of location task) included a rule, theperformance of 3-year-olds, who fail traditional false-belief tasks, significantly improved.In Study 2, 3-year-olds proved to be able to infer a rule from a social situation and touse it in order to predict the behaviour of a character involved in a modified versionof the false-belief task. These studies suggest that rules play a central role in the socialcognition of young children and that deontic reasoning might not necessarily involvemind reading.

IPERS 2005 to 2009 Experience Study, June 2010

It is a pleasure to submit this report of our investigation of the experience of the Iowa Public Employees’ Retirement System for the period of July 1, 2005 through June 30, 2009. The set of assumptions recommended as a result of this study will be used in the June 30, 2010 actuarial valuation of IPERS which will be used to analyze the funding status of the system, calculate the actuarial and statutory employer contribution rates, and disclose employer liabilities for financial statements. The purpose of this report is to communicate the results of our review of the actuarial methods and assumptions to be used in the completion of the upcoming valuation. Our recommendations represent changes from the prior methods or assumptions, which are intended to better anticipate the emerging experience of the System. Actual future experience, however, may differ from these assumptions. In preparing this report, we relied without audit on information supplied by IPERS staff. In our examination, we have found the data to be reasonably consistent and comparable with data used for other purposes. It should be noted that if any data or other information is inaccurate or incomplete, our calculations might need to be revised. We would like to acknowledge the help given by IPERS staff in the preparation of this report. We hereby certify that, to the best of our knowledge and belief, this report is complete and accurate and has been prepared in accordance with generally recognized and accepted actuarial principles and practices which are consistent with the principles prescribed by the Actuarial Standards Board (ASB) and the Code of Professional Conduct and qualification Standards for Public Statements of Actuarial Opinion of the American Academy of Actuaries.

An Engineering Study to Update the Iowa Transportation Laws Annotated: HR 324a January 1995

Research project HR-234A was sponsored by the Iowa Highway Research Board and the Iowa Department of Transportation. In the preparation of this compilation of highway and street laws of Iowa, an attempt has been made to include those sections of the Iowa Code Annotated and Iowa Digest to which reference is frequently required by the Department of Transportation, counties, cities and towns in their conduct of highway and street administration, construction and maintenance. This publication is offered with the hope and belief that it will prove to be of value and assistance to those concerned with the problems of establishing, maintaining and administering a highway and street program. Because of the broad scope of highway and street work and the many interrelated provisions of Iowa law, and usable size, some Code provision which are insignificant to the principal subject were omitted out of necessity; others were omitted to avoid repetition. A general index is provided at the end of the text of this volume. Each major topic is divided into subtopics and is accompanied by appropriate Code sections. Specific section numbers as they appear in the Code are in.

Identity [R]Evolution: Multi-Disciplinary Perpectives

The identity [r]evolution is happening. Who are you, who am I in the information society? In recent years, the convergence of several factors - technological, political, economic - has accelerated a fundamental change in our networked world. On a technological level, information becomes easier to gather, to store, to exchange and to process. The belief that more information brings more security has been a strong political driver to promote information gathering since September 11. Profiling intends to transform information into knowledge in order to anticipate one's behaviour, or needs, or preferences. It can lead to categorizations according to some specific risk criteria, for example, or to direct and personalized marketing. As a consequence, new forms of identities appear. They are not necessarily related to our names anymore. They are based on information, on traces that we leave when we act or interact, when we go somewhere or just stay in one place, or even sometimes when we make a choice. They are related to the SIM cards of our mobile phones, to our credit card numbers, to the pseudonyms that we use on the Internet, to our email addresses, to the IP addresses of our computers, to our profiles... Like traditional identities, these new forms of identities can allow us to distinguish an individual within a group of people, or describe this person as belonging to a community or a category. How far have we moved through this process? The identity [r]evolution is already becoming part of our daily lives. People are eager to share information with their "friends" in social networks like Facebook, in chat rooms, or in Second Life. Customers take advantage of the numerous bonus cards that are made available. Video surveillance is becoming the rule. In several countries, traditional ID documents are being replaced by biometric passports with RFID technologies. This raises several privacy issues and might actually even result in changing the perception of the concept of privacy itself, in particular by the younger generation. In the information society, our (partial) identities become the illusory masks that we choose -or that we are assigned- to interplay and communicate with each other. Rights, obligations, responsibilities, even reputation are increasingly associated with these masks. On the one hand, these masks become the key to access restricted information and to use services. On the other hand, in case of a fraud or negative reputation, the owner of such a mask can be penalized: doors remain closed, access to services is denied. Hence the current preoccupying growth of impersonation, identity-theft and other identity-related crimes. Where is the path of the identity [r]evolution leading us? The booklet is giving a glance on possible scenarios in the field of identity.