Early stopping by using stochastic curtailment in a three-arm sequential trial

Summary. Interim analysis is important in a large clinical trial for ethical and cost considerations. Sometimes, an interim analysis needs to be performed at an earlier than planned time point. In that case, methods using stochastic curtailment are useful in examining the data for early stopping while controlling the inflation of type I and type II errors. We consider a three-arm randomized study of treatments to reduce perioperative blood loss following major surgery. Owing to slow accrual, an unplanned interim analysis was required by the study team to determine whether the study should be continued. We distinguish two different cases: when all treatments are under direct comparison and when one of the treatments is a control. We used simulations to study the operating characteristics of five different stochastic curtailment methods. We also considered the influence of timing of the interim analyses on the type I error and power of the test. We found that the type I error and power between the different methods can be quite different. The analysis for the perioperative blood loss trial was carried out at approximately a quarter of the planned sample size. We found that there is little evidence that the active treatments are better than a placebo and recommended closure of the trial.

Sequential allocation in clinical trials

Suppose two treatments with binary responses are available for patients with some disease and that each patient will receive one of the two treatments. In this paper we consider the interests of patients both within and outside a trial using a Bayesian bandit approach and conclude that equal allocation is not appropriate for either group of patients. It is suggested that Gittins indices should be used (using an approach called dynamic discounting by choosing the discount rate based on the number of future patients in the trial) if the disease is rare, and the least failures rule if the disease is common. Some analytical and simulation results are provided.

A Fuzzy Approximation Scheme for Sequential Learning in Pattern Recognition

An adaptive learning scheme, based on a fuzzy approximation to the gradient descent method for training a pattern classifier using unlabeled samples, is described. The objective function defined for the fuzzy ISODATA clustering procedure is used as the loss function for computing the gradient. Learning is based on simultaneous fuzzy decisionmaking and estimation. It uses conditional fuzzy measures on unlabeled samples. An exponential membership function is assumed for each class, and the parameters constituting these membership functions are estimated, using the gradient, in a recursive fashion. The induced possibility of occurrence of each class is useful for estimation and is computed using 1) the membership of the new sample in that class and 2) the previously computed average possibility of occurrence of the same class. An inductive entropy measure is defined in terms of induced possibility distribution to measure the extent of learning. The method is illustrated with relevant examples.

Optimum choice of wavelengths in the anomalous scattering technique with synchrotron radiation

A formula has been derived for the mean-square error in the phases of crystal reflections determined through the multiwavelength anomalous scattering method.The error is written in terms of a simple function of the positions in the complex plane of the 'centres' corresponding to the different wavelengths. For the case of three centres, the mean-square error is inversely proportional to the area of the triangle formed by them.

Fruit maturity and soundness relevant to feeding choice by fruit-piercing moths (Lepidoptera: Noctuidae) in citrus crops in northeast Australia

Fruit-piercing moths are significant pests of a range of fruit crops throughout much of the world's tropics and subtropics. Feeding damage by the adult moths is most widely reported in varieties of citrus. In the years 2003 and 2004, fruit-piercing moth activity was observed regularly at night in citrus crops in northeast Australia, to determine the level of maturity (based on rind colour) and soundness of fruit attacked. 'Navelina' navel and 'Washington' navel orange, grapefruit and mixed citrus crops were assessed, and fruit was rated and placed into five categories: green, colouring, ripe, overripe and damaged. There were no statistical differences in the percentage of fruit attacked in each category across crops. However, within the individual crops significant proportions of green 'Navelina' fruit (58.7%) and green mixed citrus (57.1%) were attacked in 2004. Among all the crops assessed, 25.1% of moth feeding occurred on overripe or damaged fruit. Crops started to be attacked at least 8 weeks before picking, but in two crops there were large influxes of moths (reaching 27 and 35 moths/100 trees, respectively) immediately before harvest. Moth activity was most intense between late February and late March. Eudocima fullonia (Clerck) represented 79.1% of all moths recorded on fruit, with Eudocima materna (L.), Eudocima salaminia (Cramer) and Serrodes campana (Guen.) the only other species observed capable of inflicting primary damage. Our results suggest that growers should monitor moth activity from 8 weeks before harvest and consider remedial action if moth numbers increase substantially as the crop matures or there is a history of moth problems. The number of fruit pickings could be increased to progressively remove ripe fruit or early harvest of the entire crop contemplated if late influxes of moths are known.

Male nursing students in training: A comparative analysis of hidden advantage and discrimination

Aim The aim of this study was to examine the lived experience of men training to be registered nurses within a regional New Zealand context. Design This study draws upon the key principles of descriptive phenomenology. Sample Five male students enrolled from the 1st and 3rd year of the BN programme. Findings - A Career with Prospects - Gender inequality by superiors; - Developing professional boundaries with female colleagues; - Being unique has its advantages.

A sequential analysis of "nú" and "núna" in Icelandic conversation

This thesis is an empirical study of how two words in Icelandic, "nú" and "núna", are used in contemporary Icelandic conversation. My aims in this study are, first, to explain the differences between the temporal functions of "nú" and "núna", and, second, to describe the non-temporal functions of "nú". In the analysis, a focus is placed on comparing the sequential placement of the two words, on their syntactical distribution, and on their prosodic realization. The empirical data comprise 14 hours and 11 minutes of naturally occurring conversation recorded between 1996 and 2003. The selected conversations represent a wide range of interactional contexts including informal dinner parties, institutional and non-institutional telephone conversations, radio programs for teenagers, phone-in programs, and, finally, a political debate on television. The theoretical and methodological framework is interactional linguistics, which can be described as linguistically oriented conversation analysis (CA). A comparison of "nú" and "núna" shows that the two words have different syntactic distributions. "Nú" has a clear tendency to occur in the front field, before the finite verb, while "núna" typically occurs in the end field, after the object. It is argued that this syntactic difference reflects a functional difference between "nú" and "núna". A sequential analysis of "núna" shows that the word refers to an unspecified period of time which includes the utterance time as well as some time in the past and in the future. This temporal relation is referred to as reference time. "Nú", by contrast, is mainly used in three different environments: a) in temporal comparisons, 2) in transitions, and 3) when the speaker is taking an affective stance. The non-temporal functions of "nú" are divided into three categories: a) "nú" as a tone particle, 2) "nú" as an utterance particle, and 3) "nú" as a dialogue particle. "Nú" as a tone particle is syntactically integrated and can occur in two syntactic positions: pre-verbally and post-verbally. I argue that these instances are employed in utterances in which a speaker is foregrounding information or marking it as particularly important. The study shows that, although these instances are typically prosodically non-prominent and unstressed, they are in some cases delivered with stress and with a higher pitch than the surrounding talk. "Nú" as an utterance particle occurs turn-initially and is syntactically non-integrated. By using "nú", speakers show continuity between turns and link new turns to prior ones. These instances initiate either continuations by the same speaker or new turns after speaker shifts. "Nú" as a dialogue particle occurs as a turn of its own. The study shows that these instances register informings in prior turns as unexpected or as a departure from the normal state of affairs. "Nú" as a dialogue particle is often delivered with a prolonged vowel and a recognizable intonation contour. A comparative sequential and prosodic analysis shows that in these cases there is a correlation between the function of "nú" and the intonation contour by which it is delivered. Finally, I argue that despite the many functions of "nú", all the instances can be said to have a common denominator, which is to display attention towards the present moment and the utterances which are produced prior or after the production of "nú". Instead of anchoring the utterances in external time or reference time, these instances position the utterance in discourse internal time, or discourse time.

School and choice : Anethnography of a primary school with bilingual classes

Based on a one-year ethnographic study of a primary school in Finland with specialised classes in Finnish and English (referred to as bilingual classes by research participants), this research traces patterns of how nationed, raced, classed and gendered differences are produced and gain meaning in school. I examine several aspects of these differences: the ways the teachers and parents make sense of school and of school choice; the repertoires of self put forward by teachers, parents and pupils of the bilingual classes; and the insitutional and classroom practices in Sunny Lane School (pseudonym). My purpose is to examine how the construction of differentness is related to the policy of school choice. I approach this questions from a knowledge problematic, and explore connections and disjunctions between the interpretations of teachers and those of parents, as well as between what teachers and parents expressed or said and the practices they engaged in. My data consists of fieldnotes generated through a one-year period of ethnographic study in Sunny Lane School, and of ethnographic interviews with teachers and parents primarily of the bilingual classes. This data focuses on the initial stages of the bilingual classes, which included the application and testing processes for these classes, and on Grades 1─3. In my analysis, I pursue poststructural feminist theorisations on questions of knowledge, power and subjectivity, which foreground an understanding of the constitutive force of discourse and the performative, partial, and relational nature of knowledge. I begin by situating my ethnographic field in relation to wider developments, namely, the emergence of school choice and the rhetoric of curricular reform and language education in Finland. I move on from there to ask how teachers discuss the introduction of these specialised classes, then trace pupils paths to these classes, their parents goals related to school choice, teachers constructions of the pupils and parents of bilingual classes, and how these shape the ways in which school and classroom practices unfold. School choice, I argue, functioned as a spatial practice, defining who belongs in school and demarcating the position of teachers, parents and pupils in school. Notions of classed and ethnicised differences entered the ways teachers and parents made sense of school choice. Teachers idealised school in terms of social cohesiveness and constructed social cohesion as a task for school to perform. The hopes parents iterated were connected to ensuring their children s futurity, to their perceptions of the advantages of fluency in English, but also to the differences they believed to exist between the social milieus of different schools. Ideals such as openmindedness and cosmopolitanism were also articulated by parents, and these ideals assumed different content for ethnic majority and minority parents. Teachers discussed the introduction of bilingual classes as being a means to ensure the school s future, and emphasised bilingual classes as fitting into the rubric of Finnish comprehensive schooling which, they maintained, is committed to equality. Parents were expected to accommodate their views and adopt the position of the responsible, supportive parent that was suggested to them by teachers. Teachers assumed a posture teachers of appreciating different cultures, while maintaining Finnishness as common ground in school. Discussion on pupils knowledge and experience of other countries took place often in bilingual classes, and various cultural theme events were organized on occasion. In school, pupils are taught to identify themselves in terms of cultural belonging. The rhetoric promoted by teachers was one of inclusiveness, which was also applied to describe the task of qualifying pupils for bilingual classes, qualifying which pupils can belong. Bilingual classes were idealised as taking a neutral, impartial posture toward difference by ethnic majority teachers and parents, and the relationship of school choice to classed advantage, for example, was something teachers, as well as parents, preferred not to discuss. Pupils were addressed by teachers during lessons in ways that assumed self responsibility and diligence, and they assumed the discursive category of being good, competent pupils made available to them. While this allowed them to position themselves favourably in school, their participation in a bilingual class was marked by the pressure to succeed well in school.

Promising Practices: Ensuring Choice Under the Ticket to Work Program - The Indiana PABSS Approach

The Ticket to Work program offered disabled and blind social security beneficiaries the promise of greater choice when selecting a vocational rehabilitation provider. With the issuance of Transmittal #17, much of the opportunity to choose a provider was removed. The Protection and Advocacy agency in Indiana took steps to protect the rights of disabled and blind beneficiaries to choose providers in the face of this significant policy change. Learn what was done to protect the rights and ability of beneficiaries to seek and choose vocational rehabilitation providers.

Why are students choosing STEM and when do they make their choice?

BACKGROUND OR CONTEXT The higher education sector plays an important role in encouraging students into the STEM pipeline through fostering partnerships with schools, building on universities long tradition in engagement and outreach to secondary schools. Numerous activities focus on integrated STEM learning experiences aimed at developing conceptual scientific and mathematical knowledge with opportunities for students to show and develop skills in working with each other and actively engaging in discussion, decision making and collaborative problem solving. (NAS, 2013; AIG, 2015; OCS, 2014). This highlights the importance of the development and delivery of engaging integrated STEM activities connected to the curriculum to inspire the next generation of scientists and engineers and generally preparing students for post-secondary success. The broad research objective is to gain insight into which engagement activities and to what level they influence secondary school students’ selection of STEM-related career choices at universities. PURPOSE OR GOAL To evaluate and determine the effectiveness of STEM engagement activities impacting student decision making in choosing a STEM-related degree choice at university. APPROACH A survey was conducted with first-year domestic students studying STEM-related fieldswithin the Science and Engineering Faculty at Queensland University of Technology. Of the domestic students commencing in 2015, 29% responded to the survey. The survey was conducted using Survey Monkey and included a variety of questions ranging from academic performance at school to inspiration for choosing a STEM degree. Responses were analysed on a range of factors to evaluate the influence on students’ decisions to study STEM and whether STEM high school engagement activities impacted these decisions. To achieve this the timing of decision making for students choice in study area, degree, and university is compared with the timing of STEM engagement activities. DISCUSSION Statistical analysis using SPSS was carried out on survey data looking at reasons for choosing STEM degrees in terms of gender, academic performance and major influencers in their decision making. It was found that students choose their university courses based on what subjects they enjoyed and exceled at in school. These results found a high correlation between enjoyment of a school subject and their interest in pursuing this subject at university and beyond. Survey results indicated students are heavily influenced by their subject teachers and parents in their choice of STEM-related disciplines. In terms of career choice and when students make their decision, 60% have decided on a broad area of study by year 10, whilst only 15% had decided on a specific course and 10% had decided on which university. The timing of secondary STEM engagement activities is seen as a critical influence on choosing STEM disciplines or selection of senior school subjects with 80% deciding on specific degree between year 11 and 12 and 73% making a decision on which university in year 12. RECOMMENDATIONS/IMPLICATIONS/CONCLUSION Although the data does not support that STEM engagement activities increase the likelihood of STEM-related degree choice, the evidence suggests the students who have participated in STEM activities associate their experiences with their choice to pursue a STEM-related course. It is important for universities to continue to provide quality engaging and inspirational learning experiences in STEM, to identify and build on students’ early interest and engagement, increase STEM knowledge and awareness, engage them in interdisciplinary project-based STEM practices, and provide them with real-world application experiences to sustain their interest.

Development of a synthetic plant volatile-based attracticide for female noctuid moths. I. Potential sources of volatiles attractive to Helicoverpa armigera (Hubner) (Lepidoptera: Noctuidae).

This paper is the first of a series which will describe the development of a synthetic plant volatile-based attracticide for noctuid moths. It discusses potential sources of volatiles attractive to the cotton bollworm, Helicoverpa armigera (Hubner), and an approach to the combination of these volatiles in synthetic blends. We screened a number of known host and non-host (for larval development) plants for attractiveness to unmated male and female moths of this species, using a two-choice olfactometer system. Out of 38 plants tested, 33 were significantly attractive to both sexes. There was a strong correlation between attractiveness of plants to males and females. The Australian natives, Angophora floribunda and several Eucalyptus species were the most attractive plants. These plants have not been recorded either as larval or oviposition hosts of Helicoverpa spp., suggesting that attraction in the olfactometer might have been as nectar foraging rather than as oviposition sources. To identify potential compounds that might be useful in developing moth attractants, especially for females, collections of volatiles were made from plants that were attractive to moths in the olfactometer. Green leaf volatiles, floral volatiles, aromatic compounds, monoterpenes and sesquiterpenes were found. We propose an approach to developing synthetic attractants, here termed 'super-blending', in which compounds from all these classes, which are in common between attractive plants, might be combined in blends which do not mimic any particular attractive plant.

Comparative performance of Corymbia hybrids and parental species in subtropical Queensland and implications for breeding and deployment.

Eighty six full-sib Corymbia F1 hybrid families (crosses between C. torelliana and four spotted gum taxa: C. citriodora subsp. variegata, C. citriodora subsp. citriodora, C. henryi and C. maculata), were planted in six trials across six disparate sites in south-eastern Queensland to evaluate their productivity and determine their potential utility for plantation forestry. In each trial, the best-growing 20% of hybrid families grew significantly faster (P=0.05) than open-pollinated seedlots of the parent species Corymbia citriodora subsp. variegata, ranging from 107% to 181% and 127% to 287% of the height and diameter respectively. Relative performance of hybrid families growing on more than one site displayed consistency in ranking for growth across sites and analysis showed low genotype-by-environment interaction. Heritability estimates based on female and male parents across two sites at age six years for height and diameter at breast height, were high (0.62±0.28 to 0.64±0.35 and 0.31±0.21 to 0.69±0.37 respectively), and low to moderate (0.03±0.04 to 0.33±0.22) for stem straightness, branch size, incidence of ramicorns, and frost and disease resistance traits at ages one to three years. The proportion of dominance variance for height and diameter had reduced to zero by age six years. Based on these promising results, further breeding and pilot-scale family forestry and clonal forestry deployment is being undertaken. These results have also provided insights regarding the choice of a future hybrid breeding strategy.

Choice of the End Functional Groups in Tri(p-phenylenevinylene) Derivatives Controls Its Physical Gelation Abilities

New supramolecular organogels based on all-trans-tri(p-phenylenevinylene) (TPV) systems possessing different terminal groups, e.g., oxime, hydrazone, phenylhydrazone, and semicarbazone have been synthesized. The self-assembly properties of the compounds that gelate in specific organic solvents and the aggregation motifs of these molecules in the organogels were investigated using UV−vis, fluorescence, FT-IR, and 1H NMR spectroscopy, electron microscopy, differential scanning calorimetry (DSC), and rheology. The temperature variable UV−vis and fluorescence spectroscopy in different solvents clearly show the aggregation pattern of the self-assemblies promoted by hydrogen bonding, aromatic π-stacking, and van der Waals interactions among the individual TPV units. Gelation could be controlled by variation in the number of hydrogen-bonding donors and acceptors in the terminal functional groups of this class of gelators. Also wherever gelation is observed, the individual fibers in gels change to other types of networks in their aggregates depending on the number of hydrogen-bonding sites in the terminal functions. Comparison of the thermal stability of the gels obtained from DSC data of different gelators demonstrates higher phase transition temperature and enthalpy for the hydrazone-based gelator. Rheological studies indicate that the presence of more hydrogen-bonding donors in the periphery of the gelator molecules makes the gel more viscoelastic solidlike. However, in the presence of more numbers of hydrogen-bonding donor/acceptors at the periphery of TPVs such as with semicarbazone a precipitation as opposed to gelation was observed. Clearly, the choice of the end functional groups and the number of hydrogen-bonding groups in the TPV backbone holds the key and modulates the effective length of the chromophore, resulting in interesting optical properties.

Young Men s Sexual Behaviour in Finland and Estonia : Opportunities for prevention of sexually transmitted infections

Background: The incidence of sexually transmitted infections (STIs) in most EU states has gradually increased and the rate of newly diagnosed HIV cases has doubled since 1999. STIs differ in their clinical features, prognosis and transmission dynamics, though they do share a common factor in their mode of transmission −that is, human behaviour. The evolvement of STI epidemiology involves a joint action of biological, epidemiological and societal factors. Of the more immediate factors, besides timely diagnosis and appropriate treatment, STI incidence is influenced by population patterns of sexual risk behaviour, particularly the number of sexual partners and the frequency of unprotected intercourse. Assessment of sexual behaviour, its sociodemographic determinants and time-trends are important in understanding the distribution and dynamic of STI epidemiology. Additionally, in the light of the basic structural determinants, such as increased level of migration, changes in gender dynamics and impacts from globalization, with its increasing alignment of values and beliefs, can reveal future challenges related to STI epidemiology. STI case surveillance together with surveillance on sexual behaviour can guide the identification of preventive strategies, assess their effectiveness and predict emerging trends. The objective of this study was to provide base line data on sexual risk behaviour, self-reported STIs and their patterns by sociodemographic factors as well as associations of sexual risk behaviour with substance use among young men in Finland and Estonia. In Finland national population based data on adult men s sexual behaviour is limited. The findings are discussed in the context of STI epidemiology as well as their possible implications for public health policies and prevention strategies. Materials and Methods: Data from three different cross-sectional population-based surveys conducted in Finland and Estonia, during 1998 2005, were used. Sexual behaviour- and health-related questions were incorporated in two surveys in Finland; the Health 2000, a large scale general health survey, focussed on young adults, and the Military health behavioural survey on military conscripts participating in the mandatory military training. Through research collaboration with Estonia, similar questions to the Finnish surveys were introduced to the second Estonian HIV/AIDS survey, which was targeted at young adults. All surveys applied mail-returned, anonymous, self-administered questionnaires with multiple choice formatted answers. Results: In Finland, differences in sexual behaviour between young men and women were minor. An age-stratified analysis revealed that the sex-related difference observed in the youngest age group (18 19 years) levelled off in the age group 20 24 and almost disappeared among those aged 25 29. Marital status was the most important sociodemographic correlate for sexual behaviour for both sexes, singles reporting higher numbers of lifetime-partners and condom use. This effect was stronger for women than for men. However, of those who had sex with casual partners, 15% were married or co-habiting, with no difference between male and female respondents. According to the Military health behavioural survey, young men s sexual risk behaviour in Finland did not markedly change over a period of time between 1998 and 2005. Approximately 30−40% of young men had had multiple sex partners (more than five) in their lifetime, over 20% reported having had multiple sex partners (at least three) over the past year and 50% did not use a condom in their last sexual intercourse. Some 10% of men reported accumulation of risk factors, i.e. having had both, multiple sex partners and not used a condom in their last intercourse, over the past year of the survey. When differences and similarities were viewed within Finland and Estonia, a clear sociodemographic patterning of sexual risk behaviour and self-reported STIs was found in Finland, but a somewhat less consistent trend in Estonia. Generally, both, alcohol and drug use were strong correlates for sexual risk behaviour and self-reported STIs in Finland and Estonia, having a greater effect on engagement with multiple sex partners rather than unprotected intercourse or self-reported STIs. In Finland alcohol use, relative to drug use, was a stronger predictor of sexual risk behaviour and self-reported STIs, while in Estonia drug use predicted sexual risk behaviour and self-reported STIs stronger than alcohol use. Conclusions: The study results point to the importance for prevention of sexual risk behaviour, particularly strategies that integrate sexual risk with alcohol and drug use risks. The results point to the need to focus further research on sexual behaviour and STIs among young people; on tracking trends among general population as well as applying in-depth research to identify and learn from vulnerable and high-risk population groups for STIs who are exposed to a combination of risk factors.