Análise prospectiva de risco em pacientes submetidos à cirurgia de revascularização miocárdica

OBJETIVO: Análise estratificada de risco em Cirurgia de Revascularização Miocárdica (CRVM). MÉTODOS: Estudou-se, de forma prospectiva, 814 pacientes, aplicando-se dois índices prognósticos (IP): Parsonnet e Higgins Modificado. O IP Higgins foi Modificado por substituição da variável "valor do índice cardíaco" por "síndrome de baixo débito cardíaco", na admissão à Unidade de Terapia Intensiva (UTI). A capacidade discriminatória para morbimortalidade de ambos foi analisada através de curva ROC (receiver operating characteristic). Identificou-se, através de regressão logística, os fatores associados, de forma independente aos eventos. RESULTADOS: A taxa de mortalidade foi de 5,9% e a de morbidade, 35,5%. O IP Higgins Modificado, que analisa variáveis pré, intra-operatórias e variáveis fisiológicas na admissão à UTI, demonstrou áreas sob a curva ROC de 77% para mortalidade e de 67%, para morbidade. Por sua vez, o IP Parsonnet, que analisa somente variáveis pré-operatórias, demonstrou áreas de 62,2% e 62,4%, respectivamente. Doze variáveis caracterizaram-se como fatores prognósticos independentes: idade, diabete melito, baixa superfície corpórea, creatinina (>1,5 mg/dl), hipoalbuminemia, cirurgia não-eletiva, tempo prolongado de circulação extracorpórea (CEC), necessidade de balão intra-aórtico pós-CEC, síndrome de baixo débito cardíaco na admissão do paciente à UTI, freqüência cardíaca elevada, queda do bicarbonato sérico e alargamento do gradiente alvéolo-arterial de oxigênio nesse período. CONCLUSÃO: O IP Higgins Modificado mostrou-se superior ao IP Parsonnet na estratificação de risco cirúrgico, salientando a importância da análise de eventos intra-operatórios e variáveis fisiológicas na admissão do paciente à UTI, quando da definição prognóstica.

Indicação de cintilografia de perfusão do miocárdio para a detecção de doença arterial coronariana, baseada em evidências ergométricas e clínico-epidemiológicas

OBJETIVO: Avaliar quando se devem realizar exames de cintilografia de perfusão do miocárdio (CPM), baseando-se em informações objetivas obtidas do teste ergométrico e da análise dos fatores clínico-epidemiológicos para doença arterial coronária (DAC). MÉTODOS: Foram submetidos a CPM 2.100 pacientes que foram classificados segundo o resultado da cintilografia, do escore de Duke e de escore clínico-epidemiológico, baseado em Framingham. Os pacientes com cintilografia positiva foram acompanhados a fim de definir se os resultados eram verdadeiros positivos. Foram utilizadas receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curvas para definir a eficiência e os melhores pontos de corte dos escores de Duke e clínico-epidemiológico, na seleção dos pacientes que deveriam ser submetidos a cintilografia. RESULTADOS: Observou-se que, restringindo a solicitação da cintilografia a pacientes com escore de Duke abaixo de 7,5 e/ou escore clínico-epidemiológico acima de 4, deixaríamos de realizar cerca de 50% dos exames com riscos mínimos de perda de diagnóstico. CONCLUSÃO: A utilização do escore de Duke e de escore clínico-epidemiológico para orientar a solicitação da CPM pode diminuir expressivamente o número de exames desnecessários.

Indicadores antropométricos como preditores de pressão arterial elevada em adolescentes

FUNDAMENTO: A hipertensão arterial está relacionada ao incremento da gordura corporal, a qual pode ser avaliada por meio de indicadores antropométricos. OBJETIVO: Determinar o poder preditivo de indicadores antropométricos e estabelecer seus pontos de corte como discriminadores de pressão arterial elevada. MÉTODOS: Estudo transversal realizado com uma amostra de 660 adolescentes de 14 a 19 anos sendo 51,9% moças. Foram considerados os seguintes indicadores antropométricos: índice de massa corporal (IMC), circunferência da cintura, razão cintura/estatura e índice de conicidade. A pressão arterial elevada foi caracterizada por valores acima do percentil 90 para pressão arterial sistólica e/ou pressão arterial diastólica. Para identificação dos preditores de pressão arterial elevada, foi adotada a análise das curvas Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC), com intervalo de confiança de 95%. Posteriormente, identificaram-se os pontos de corte com suas respectivas sensibilidades e especificidades. RESULTADOS: As áreas sob as curvas ROC com os intervalos de confiança foram: rapazes - circunferência de cintura = 0,80 (0,72-0,89); IMC = 0,79 (0,68-0,89); razão cintura/estatura = 0,77 (0,66-0,88); índice de conicidade = 0,69 (0,56-0,81) e para as moças - circunferência de cintura = 0,96 (0,92-1,00); IMC = 0,95 (0,87-1,00); razão cintura/estatura = 0,93 (0,85-1,00); índice de conicidade = 0,74 (0,50-0,98). Os diversos pontos de corte dos indicadores antropométricos com melhores poderes preditivos e suas respectivas sensibilidades e especificidades foram identificados. CONCLUSÃO: Apesar de a razão cintura/estatura e de o IMC terem apresentado boas áreas sob a curva ROC, sugere-se a utilização da circunferência de cintura para a predição da pressão arterial elevada.

Preditores de viabilidade em pacientes com resposta negativa à ecocardiografia de estresse com dobutamina de baixa dose

FUNDAMENTO: A ecocardiografia de estresse com dobutamina de baixa dose é um teste específico para predizer disfunção de contratilidade reversível, mas mesmo assim, sua sensibilidade é menor do que ideal. OBJETIVO: Avaliar os preditores de recuperação miocárdica contrátil após a revascularização, em pacientes sem viabilidade na ecocardiografia de estresse com dobutamina de baixa dose. MÉTODOS: Trinta pacientes consecutivos foram selecionados consecutivamente, que apresentavam estenose coronária/oclusão significantes, tratáveis através de revascularização, anormalidade de motilidade de parede regional na distribuição da artéria afetada e ausência de viabilidade na ecocardiografia de estresse com dobutamina de baixa dose. Os pacientes foram submetidos a estudo de imagem com 99mTc-sestamibi em repouso e então submetidos à revascularização coronária bem sucedida. A ecocardiografia de seguimento foi realizada três meses depois. Os pacientes foram classificados em 2 grupos: grupo 1: com evidência de recuperação miocárdica contrátil após a revascularização na ecocardiografia de seguimento e grupo 2: sem evidência de recuperação miocárdica. Os dois grupos foram comparados em relação aos dados clínicos, ecocardiográficos e cintilográficos. RESULTADOS: A média da idade era 52,3 ± 5,9 anos e 97% eram do sexo masculino. A porcentagem de captação total de 99mTc-sestamibi foi significantemente mais alta no grupo 1 quando comparado ao grupo 2 (p < 0,01) e foi o preditor independente mais forte de recuperação miocárdica contrátil no seguimento de 3 meses na análise de regressão multivariada. A curva ROC (Receiver Operating Characteristic) mostrou que um valor de corte da porcentagem de captação total do 99mTc-sestamibi uptake de 72%, foi o melhor preditor da recuperação miocárdica contrátil, com uma sensibilidade de 100% e especificidade de 95.7%. CONCLUSÃO: Em pacientes sem evidência de viabilidade na ecocardiografia de estresse com dobutamina de baixa dose, a porcentagem de captação total do 99mTc-sestamibi prediz, de forma independente, a recuperação miocárdica contrátil após a revascularização coronária.

The use of classification and regression trees to predict the likelihood of seasonal influenza.

Background Individual signs and symptoms are of limited value for the diagnosis of influenza. Objective To develop a decision tree for the diagnosis of influenza based on a classification and regression tree (CART) analysis. Methods Data from two previous similar cohort studies were assembled into a single dataset. The data were randomly divided into a development set (70%) and a validation set (30%). We used CART analysis to develop three models that maximize the number of patients who do not require diagnostic testing prior to treatment decisions. The validation set was used to evaluate overfitting of the model to the training set. Results Model 1 has seven terminal nodes based on temperature, the onset of symptoms and the presence of chills, cough and myalgia. Model 2 was a simpler tree with only two splits based on temperature and the presence of chills. Model 3 was developed with temperature as a dichotomous variable (≥38°C) and had only two splits based on the presence of fever and myalgia. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curves (AUROCC) for the development and validation sets, respectively, were 0.82 and 0.80 for Model 1, 0.75 and 0.76 for Model 2 and 0.76 and 0.77 for Model 3. Model 2 classified 67% of patients in the validation group into a high- or low-risk group compared with only 38% for Model 1 and 54% for Model 3. Conclusions A simple decision tree (Model 2) classified two-thirds of patients as low or high risk and had an AUROCC of 0.76. After further validation in an independent population, this CART model could support clinical decision making regarding influenza, with low-risk patients requiring no further evaluation for influenza and high-risk patients being candidates for empiric symptomatic or drug therapy.

Ruling out coronary heart disease in primary care patients with chest pain : a clinical prediction score

ABSTRACT: BACKGROUND: Chest pain raises concern for the possibility of coronary heart disease. Scoring methods have been developed to identify coronary heart disease in emergency settings, but not in primary care. METHODS: Data were collected from a multicenter Swiss clinical cohort study including 672 consecutive patients with chest pain, who had visited one of 59 family practitioners' offices. Using delayed diagnosis we derived a prediction rule to rule out coronary heart disease by means of a logistic regression model. Known cardiovascular risk factors, pain characteristics, and physical signs associated with coronary heart disease were explored to develop a clinical score. Patients diagnosed with angina or acute myocardial infarction within the year following their initial visit comprised the coronary heart disease group. RESULTS: The coronary heart disease score was derived from eight variables: age, gender, duration of chest pain from 1 to 60 minutes, substernal chest pain location, pain increases with exertion, absence of tenderness point at palpation, cardiovascular risks factors, and personal history of cardiovascular disease. Area under the receiver operating characteristics curve was of 0.95 with a 95% confidence interval of 0.92; 0.97. From this score, 413 patients were considered as low risk for values of percentile 5 of the coronary heart disease patients. Internal validity was confirmed by bootstrapping. External validation using data from a German cohort (Marburg, n = 774) revealed a receiver operating characteristics curve of 0.75 (95% confidence interval, 0.72; 0.81) with a sensitivity of 85.6% and a specificity of 47.2%. CONCLUSIONS: This score, based only on history and physical examination, is a complementary tool for ruling out coronary heart disease in primary care patients complaining of chest pain.

Reliability and validity of the Alcohol Use Disorders Identification Test (AUDIT) imbedded within a general health risk screening questionnaire: results of a survey in 332 primary care patients.

BACKGROUND: Self-administered, general health risk screening questionnaires that are administered while patients wait in the doctor's office may be a reasonable and timesaving approach to address the requirements of preventive medicine in a typical 10-min medical visit. The psychometric characteristics of the Alcohol Use Disorders Identification Test (AUDIT) incorporated within a health questionnaire (H-AUDIT) have not been examined. METHODS: The reliability and validity of the self-administered AUDIT were compared between the H-AUDIT and the AUDIT used as a single scale (S-AUDIT) in 332 primary care patients. RESULTS: No major demographic or alcohol use characteristics were found between the 166 subjects who completed the H-AUDIT and the 166 individuals who completed the S-AUDIT. The test-retest reliability of the 166 subjects who completed the H-AUDIT [estimated by Spearman correlation coefficient at a 6-week interval (0.88), internal consistency (total correlation coefficients for all items ranged from 0.38 to 0.69; Cronbach alpha index 0.85), and the sensitivity and specificity of the H-AUDIT were used to identify at-risk drinkers' areas under receiver operating characteristic (0.77) and alcohol-dependent subjects' areas under receiver operating characteristic (0.89)] was similar to the same measurements obtained with the 166 individuals who completed the S-AUDIT. CONCLUSIONS: The AUDIT incorporated in a health risk screening questionnaire is a reliable and valid self-administered instrument to identify at-risk drinkers and alcohol-dependent individuals in primary care settings.

Behaviour evaluation for risk-taking adolescents (BERTA): an easy to use and assess instrument to detect adolescent risky behaviours in a clinical setting.

To create an instrument to be used in an outpatient clinic to detect adolescents prone to risk-taking behaviours. Based on previous research, five identified variables (relationship with parents and teachers, liking going to school, average grades, and level of religiosity) were used to create a screening tool to detect at least one of ten risky behaviours (tobacco, alcohol, cannabis and other illegal drugs use; sexual intercourse and sexual risky behaviour; driving while intoxicated, riding with an intoxicated driver, not always using a seat belt, and not always using a helmet). The instrument was tested using the Barcelona Adolescent Health Survey 1993. A Receiver Operating Characteristics curve was used to find the best cut-off point between high and low risk score. Odds ratios and 95% confidence intervals were calculated to detect at least one risky behaviour and for each individual behaviour. In order to assess its predictive value, the analysis was repeated using the Barcelona Adolescent Health Survey 1999. In both cases, analyses were conducted for the whole sample and for younger and older adolescents. Adolescents with a high-risk score were more likely to take at least one risky behaviour both when the whole sample was analysed and by age groups. With very few exceptions, the Behaviour Evaluation for Risk-Taking Adolescents showed significant odds ratios for each individual variable. CONCLUSION: The Behaviour Evaluation for Risk-Taking Adolescents has shown its potential as an easy to use instrument to screen for risk-taking behaviours. Future research must aim towards assessing this instrument's predictive value in the clinical setting and it's application to other populations.

New sonographic measures of peripheral nerves: a tool for the diagnosis of peripheral nerve involvement in leprosy

To evaluate ultrasonographic (US) cross-sectional areas (CSAs) of peripheral nerves, indexes of the differences between CSAs at the same point (∆CSAs) and between tunnel (T) and pre-tunnel (PT) ulnar CSAs (∆TPTs) in leprosy patients (LPs) and healthy volunteers (HVs). Seventy-seven LPs and 49 HVs underwent bilateral US at PT and T ulnar points, as well as along the median (M) and common fibular (CF) nerves, to calculate the CSAs, ∆CSAs and ∆TPTs. The CSA values in HVs were lower than those in LPs (p < 0.0001) at the PT (5.67/9.78 mm2) and T (6.50/10.94 mm2) points, as well as at the M (5.85/8.48 mm2) and CF (8.17/14.14 mm2) nerves. The optimum CSA- receiver operating characteristic (ROC) points and sensitivities/specificities were, respectively, 6.85 mm2 and 68-85% for the PT point, 7.35 mm2 and 71-78% for the T point, 6.75 mm2 and 62-75% for the M nerve and 9.55 mm2 and 81-72% for the CF nerve. The ∆CSAs of the LPs were greater than those of the HVs at the PT point (4.02/0.85; p = 0.007), T point (3.71/0.98; p = 0.0005) and CF nerve (2.93/1.14; p = 0.015), with no difference found for the M nerve (1.41/0.95; p = 0.17). The optimum ∆CSA-ROC points, sensitivities, specificities and p-values were, respectively, 1.35, 49%, 80% and 0.003 at the PT point, 1.55, 55-85% and 0.0006 at the T point, 0.70, 58-50% and 0.73 for the M nerve and 1.25, 54-67% and 0.022 for the CF nerve. The ∆TPT in the LPs was greater than that in the HVs (4.43/1.44; p <0.0001). The optimum ∆TPT-ROC point was 2.65 (90% sensitivity/41% specificity, p < 0.0001). The ROC analysis of CSAs showed the highest specificity and sensitivity at the PT point and CF nerve, respectively. The PT and T ∆CSAs had high specificities (> 80%) and ∆TPT had the highest specificity (> 90%). New sonographic peripheral nerve measurements (∆CSAs and ∆TPT) provide an important methodological improvement in the detection of leprosy neuropathy.

Pancreatic stone protein: a marker of organ failure and outcome in ventilator-associated pneumonia.

Background: Ventilator-associated pneumonia (VAP) is the most common hospital-acquired, life-threatening infection. Poor outcome and health-care costs of nosocomial pneumonia remain a global burden. Currently, physicians rely on their experience to discriminate patients with good and poor outcome. However, standardized prognostic measures might guide medical decisions in the future. Pancreatic stone protein (PSP)/regenerating protein (reg) is associated with inflammation, infection, and other disease-related stimuli. The prognostic value of PSP/reg among critically ill patients is unknown. The aim of this pilot study was to evaluate PSP/reg in VAP.Methods: One hundred one patients with clinically diagnosed VAP were assessed. PSP/reg was retrospectively analyzed using deep-frozen serum samples from VAP onset up to day 7. The main end point was death within 28 days after VAP onset.Results: Serum PSP/reg was associated with the sequential organ failure assessment score from VAP onset (Spearman rank correlation coefficient 0.49 P < .001) up to day 7. PSP/reg levels at VAP onset were elevated in nonsurvivors (n = 20) as compared with survivors (117.0 ng/mL [36.1-295.3] vs 36.3 ng/mL [21.0-124.0] P = .011). The areas under the receiver operating characteristic curves of PSP/reg to predict mortality/survival were 0.69 at VAP onset and 0.76 at day 7. Two PSP/reg cutoffs potentially allow for identification of individuals with a particularly good and poor outcome. Whereas PSP/reg levels below 24 ng/mL at YAP onset were associated with a good chance of survival, levels above 177 ng/mL at day 7 were present in patients with a very poor outcome.Conclusions: Serum PSP/reg is a biomarker related to organ failure and outcome in patients with VAP.

THCCOOH concentrations in whole blood: Are they useful in discriminating occasional from heavy smokers?

Some forensic and clinical circumstances require knowledge of the frequency of drug use. Care of the patient, administrative, and legal consequences will be different if the subject is a regular or an occasional cannabis smoker. To this end, 11-nor-9-carboxy-Δ9-tetrahydrocannabinol (THCCOOH) has been proposed as a criterion to help to distinguish between these two groups of users. However, to date this indicator has not been adequately assessed under experimental conditions. We carried out a controlled administration study of smoked cannabis with a placebo. Cannabinoid levels were determined in whole blood using tandem mass spectrometry. Significantly high differences in THCCOOH concentrations were found between the two groups when measured during the screening visit, prior to the smoking session, and throughout the day of the experiment. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves were determined and two threshold criteria were proposed in order to distinguish between these groups: a free THCCOOH concentration below 3 µg/L suggested an occasional consumption (≤ 1 joint/week) while a concentration higher than 40 µg/L corresponded to a heavy use (≥ 10 joints/month). These thresholds were tested and found to be consistent with previously published experimental data. The decision threshold of 40 µg/L could be a cut-off for possible disqualification for driving while under the influence of cannabis. A further medical assessment and follow-up would be necessary for the reissuing of a driving license once abstinence from cannabis has been demonstrated. A THCCOOH level below 3 µg/L would indicate that no medical assessment is required. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Small vascular and Alzheimer disease-related pathologic determinants of dementia in the oldest-old.

The relative contributions of Alzheimer disease (AD) and vascular lesion burden to the occurrence of cognitive decline are more difficult to define in the oldest-old than they are in younger cohorts. To address this issue, we examined 93 prospectively documented autopsy cases from 90 to 103 years with various degrees of AD lesions, lacunes, and microvascular pathology. Cognitive assessment was performed prospectively using the Clinical Dementia Rating scale. Neuropathologic evaluation included the Braak neurofibrillary tangle (NFT) and β-amyloid (Aβ) protein deposition staging and bilateral semiquantitative assessment of vascular lesions. Statistics included regression models and receiver operating characteristic analyses. Braak NFTs, Aβ deposition, and cortical microinfarcts (CMIs) predicted 30% of Clinical Dementia Rating variability and 49% of the presence of dementia. Braak NFT and CMI thresholds yielded 0.82 sensitivity, 0.91 specificity, and 0.84 correct classification rates for dementia. Using these threshold values, we could distinguish 3 groups of demented cases and propose criteria for neuropathologic definition of mixed dementia, pure vascular dementia, and AD in very old age. Braak NFT staging and severity of CMI allow for defining most of demented cases in the oldest-old. Most importantly, single cutoff scores for these variables that could be used in the future to formulate neuropathologic criteria for mixed dementia in this age group were identified.

Performance of classic electrocardiographic criteria for left ventricular hypertrophy in an African population.

ECG criteria for left ventricular hypertrophy (LVH) have been almost exclusively elaborated and calibrated in white populations. Because several interethnic differences in ECG characteristics have been found, the applicability of these criteria to African individuals remains to be demonstrated. We therefore investigated the performance of classic ECG criteria for LVH detection in an African population. Digitized 12-lead ECG tracings were obtained from 334 African individuals randomly selected from the general population of the Republic of Seychelles (Indian Ocean). Left ventricular mass was calculated with M-mode echocardiography and indexed to body height. LVH was defined by taking the 95th percentile of body height-indexed LVM values in a reference subgroup. In the entire study sample, 16 men and 15 women (prevalence 9.3%) were finally declared to have LVH, of whom 9 were of the reference subgroup. Sensitivity, specificity, accuracy, and positive and negative predictive values for LVH were calculated for 9 classic ECG criteria, and receiver operating characteristic curves were computed. We also generated a new composite time-voltage criterion with stepwise multiple linear regression: weighted time-voltage criterion=(0.2366R(aVL)+0.0551R(V5)+0.0785S(V3)+ 0.2993T(V1))xQRS duration. The Sokolow-Lyon criterion reached the highest sensitivity (61%) and the R(aVL) voltage criterion reached the highest specificity (97%) when evaluated at their traditional partition value. However, at a fixed specificity of 95%, the sensitivity of these 10 criteria ranged from 16% to 32%. Best accuracy was obtained with the R(aVL) voltage criterion and the new composite time-voltage criterion (89% for both). Positive and negative predictive values varied considerably depending on the concomitant presence of 3 clinical risk factors for LVH (hypertension, age >/=50 years, overweight). Median positive and negative predictive values of the 10 ECG criteria were 15% and 95%, respectively, for subjects with none or 1 of these risk factors compared with 63% and 76% for subjects with all of them. In conclusion, the performance of classic ECG criteria for LVH detection was largely disparate and appeared to be lower in this population of East African origin than in white subjects. A newly generated composite time-voltage criterion might provide improved performance. The predictive value of ECG criteria for LVH was considerably enhanced with the integration of information on concomitant clinical risk factors for LVH.

Influence of preoperative leg pain and radiculopathy on outcomes in mono-segmental lumbar total disc replacement: results from a nationwide registry.

PURPOSE: Currently, many pre-conditions are regarded as relative or absolute contraindications for lumbar total disc replacement (TDR). Radiculopathy is one among them. In Switzerland it is left to the surgeon's discretion when to operate if he adheres to a list of pre-defined indications. Contraindications, however, are less clearly specified. We hypothesized that, the extent of pre-operative radiculopathy results in different benefits for patients treated with mono-segmental lumbar TDR. We used patient perceived leg pain and its correlation with physician recorded radiculopathy for creating the patient groups to be compared. METHODS: The present study is based on the dataset of SWISSspine, a government mandated health technology assessment registry. Between March 2005 and April 2009, 577 patients underwent either mono- or bi-segmental lumbar TDR, which was documented in a prospective observational multicenter mode. A total of 416 cases with a mono-segmental procedure were included in the study. The data collection consisted of pre-operative and follow-up data (physician based) and clinical outcomes (NASS form, EQ-5D). A receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analysis was conducted with patients' self-indicated leg pain and the surgeon-based diagnosis "radiculopathy", as marked on the case report forms. As a result, patients were divided into two groups according to the severity of leg pain. The two groups were compared with regard to the pre-operative patient characteristics and pre- and post-operative pain on Visual Analogue Scale (VAS) and quality of life using general linear modeling. RESULTS: The optimal ROC model revealed a leg pain threshold of 40 ≤ VAS > 40 for the absence or the presence of "radiculopathy". Demographics in the resulting two groups were well comparable. Applying this threshold, the mean pre-operative leg pain level was 16.5 points in group 1 and 68.1 points in group 2 (p < 0.001). Back pain levels differed less with 63.6 points in group 1 and 72.6 in group 2 (p < 0.001). Pre-operative quality of life showed considerable differences with an 0.44 EQ-5D score in group 1 and 0.29 in group 2 (p < 0.001, possible score range -0.6 to 1). At a mean follow-up time of 8 months, group 1 showed a mean leg pain improvement of 3.6 points and group 2 of 41.1 points (p < 0.001). Back pain relief was 35.6 and 39.1 points, respectively (p = 0.27). EQ-5D score improvement was 0.27 in group 1 and 0.41 in group 2 (p = 0.11). CONCLUSIONS: Patients labeled as having radiculopathy (group 2) do mostly have pre-operative leg pain levels ≥ 40. Applying this threshold, the patients with pre-operative leg pain do also have more severe back pain and a considerably lower quality of life. Their net benefit from the lumbar TDR is higher and they do have similar post-operative back and leg pain levels as well as the quality of life as patients without pre-operative leg pain. Although randomized controlled trials are required to confirm these findings, they put leg pain and radiculopathy into perspective as absolute contraindications for TDR.

Climatic extremes improve predictions of spatial patterns of tree species.

Understanding niche evolution, dynamics, and the response of species to climate change requires knowledge of the determinants of the environmental niche and species range limits. Mean values of climatic variables are often used in such analyses. In contrast, the increasing frequency of climate extremes suggests the importance of understanding their additional influence on range limits. Here, we assess how measures representing climate extremes (i.e., interannual variability in climate parameters) explain and predict spatial patterns of 11 tree species in Switzerland. We find clear, although comparably small, improvement (+20% in adjusted D(2), +8% and +3% in cross-validated True Skill Statistic and area under the receiver operating characteristics curve values) in models that use measures of extremes in addition to means. The primary effect of including information on climate extremes is a correction of local overprediction and underprediction. Our results demonstrate that measures of climate extremes are important for understanding the climatic limits of tree species and assessing species niche characteristics. The inclusion of climate variability likely will improve models of species range limits under future conditions, where changes in mean climate and increased variability are expected.