Enjoying cooperative games: The R package GameTheory

This paper focuses on cooperative games with transferable utility. We propose the computation of two solutions, the Shapley value for n agents and the nucleolus with a maximum of four agents. The current approach is also focused on conflicting claims problems, a particular case of coalitional games. We provide the computation of the most well-known and used claims solutions: the proportional, the constrained equal awards, the constrained equal losses, the Talmud and the random arrival rules. Keywords: Cooperative game, Shapley value, nucleolus, claims problem, claims rule, bankruptcy.

Random walk radiosity with generalized absorption probabilities

The author studies random walk estimators for radiosity with generalized absorption probabilities. That is, a path will either die or survive on a patch according to an arbitrary probability. The estimators studied so far, the infinite path length estimator and finite path length one, can be considered as particular cases. Practical applications of the random walks with generalized probabilities are given. A necessary and sufficient condition for the existence of the variance is given, together with heuristics to be used in practical cases. The optimal probabilities are also found for the case when one is interested in the whole scene, and are equal to the reflectivities

Testing the Random Walk Hypothesis on the Baltic Stock Markets

The purpose of the thesis is to analyze whether the returns of general stock market indices of Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania follow the random walk hypothesis (RWH), and in addition, whether they are consistent with the weak-form efficiency criterion. Also the existence of the day-of-the-week anomaly is examined in the same regional markets. The data consists of daily closing quotes of the OMX Tallinn, Riga and Vilnius total return indices for the sample period from January 3, 2000 to August 28, 2009. Moreover, the full sample period is also divided into two sub-periods. The RWH is tested by applying three quantitative methods (i.e. the Augmented Dickey-Fuller unit root test, serial correlation test and non-parametric runs test). Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) regression with dummy variables is employed to detect the day-of-the-week anomalies. The random walk hypothesis (RWH) is rejected in the Estonian and Lithuanian stock markets. The Latvian stock market exhibits more efficient behaviour, although some evidence of inefficiency is also found, mostly during the first sub-period from 2000 to 2004. Day-of-the-week anomalies are detected on every stock market examined, though no longer during the later sub-period.

Assessment of Coals from Russia and Countries of Former Soviet Union for Utility Fluidized Bed Boilers

With the occurrence of fossil fuels such as oil, gas and coal we found new sources of energy that have played a critical role in the progress of our modern society. Coal is very ample compared to the other two fossil fuels. Global coal reserves at the end of 2005 were estimated at 847,5 billion tones. Along with the major energy sources, coal is the most fast growing fuel on a global basis, it provides 26% of primary energy needs and remains essential to the economies of many developed and developing countries. Coal-fired power generation accounts for 41% of the world‘s total electricity production and in some countries, such as South Africa, Poland, China, Australia, Kazakhstan and India is on very high level. Still, coal utilization represents challenges related to high emissions of air pollutants such as sulphur and nitrogen dioxides, particulate matter, mercury and carbon dioxide. In relation to these a number of technologies have been developed and are in marketable use, with further potential developments towards ―Near Zero Emission‖ coal plants. In present work, coals mined in Russia and countries of Former Soviet Union were reviewed. Distribution of coal reserves on the territory of Russia and the potential for power generation from coal-fired plants across Russia was shown. Physical and chemical properties of coals produced were listed and examined, as main factor influencing on design of the combustion facility and incineration process performance. The ash-related problems in coal-fired boilers were described. The analysis of coal ash of Russia and countries of Former Soviet Union were prepared. Feasible combustion technologies also were reviewed.

Early detection of severe sepsis in the emergency room in adults - Clinical utility of prognostic markers

Vaikean sepsiksen varhainen tunnistaminen päivystyspoliklinikalla – merkkiaineiden käyttökelpoisuus aikuispotilaiden arvioinnissa Päivystyspotilaan vakavan yleisinfektion eli sepsiksen varhainen tunnistaminen ja taudin vaikeusasteen arviointi on päivystävälle lääkärille tärkeä haaste. Arvioimme prospektiivisessa kohorttitutkimuksessa eri merkkiaineiden hyödyllisyyttä sepsiksen varhaisessa tunnistamisessa ja vaikeusasteen arvioinnissa. Työssä I ja III oli 539 päivystyspotilasta, joilta kliinikko päätti ottaa veriviljelyn sepsistä epäillen. Tutkimuksessa II oli 525 potilasta ja tutkimuksessa IV 537 potilasta. Tutkimuksessa I plasman C-reaktiivisen proteiinin (CRP) pitoisuuksia verrattiin plasman prokalsitoniinin (PCT) ja interleukiinin (IL-6) pitoisuuksiin. Tutkimuksessa II verrattiin plasman baktersidisen/ permeabiliteettia lisäävän proteiinin (BPI), ryhmän IIA fosfolipaasi A2:n (PLA2GIIA) ja CRP:n pitoisuuksia sekä valkosolujen määriä toisiinsa. Tutkimuksessa III arvioitiin liukoisen urokinaasi-tyyppisen plasminogeenin aktivaattorireseptorin (suPAR) ja tutkimuksessa IV pentraksiini 3:n (PTX3) määrityksen käyttökelpoisuutta. Tutkimuksessa I todettiin päivystystilanteessa mitattujen korkeiden PCT - ja IL-6 - pitoisuuksien ennustavan vaikean sepsiksen kehittymistä paremmin kuin korkean CRP:n. Tutkimuksessa II plasman PLA2GIIA vaikutti hiukan paremmalta vaikean sepsiksen ennustajalta kuin CRP tai veren valkosolutaso, mutta BPI ei ollut hyödyllinen. Tutkimuksessa III korkea plasman suPAR- pitoisuus osoittautui itsenäiseksi kuolleisuuden riskitekijäksi ja se liittyi myös vaikean sepsiksen kehittymiseen. Tutkimuksessa IV korkea PTX3 - pitoisuus toimi samaan tapaan kuin suPAR. Kokonaisuutena PCT osoittautui parhaaksi merkkiaineeksi ennustamaan elinhäiriön kehittymistä ja suPAR kuolleisuutta. PTX3 ei tarjonnut merkittävää lisäetua PCT:iin ja suPAR:iin verrattuna. CRP osoitti suhteellisen hyvin bakteeri-infektion esiintymistä, mutta ennusteellista arvoa sillä ei ollut. suPAR on kiinnostava kuolleisuuden ja elinhäiriön kehittymisen merkkiaine.

Random amplified polymorphic DNA profiles as a tool for the characterization of Brazilian keratitis isolates of the genus Acanthamoeba

The genus Acanthamoeba comprises free-living amebae identified as opportunistic pathogens of humans and other animal species. Morphological, biochemical and molecular approaches have shown wide genetic diversity within the genus. In an attempt to determine the genetic relatedness among isolates of Acanthamoeba we analyzed randomly amplified polymorphic DNA (RAPD) profiles of 11 Brazilian isolates from cases of human keratitis and 8 American type culture collection (ATCC) reference strains. We found that ATCC strains belonging to the same species present polymorphic RAPD profiles whereas strains of different species show very similar profiles. Although most Brazilian isolates could not be assigned with certainty to any of the reference species, they could be clustered according to pattern similarities. The results show that RAPD analysis is a useful tool for the rapid characterization of new isolates and the assessment of genetic relatedness of Acanthamoeba spp. A comparison between RAPD analyses and morphological characteristics of cyst stages is also discussed.

Reliability and clinical utility of a Portuguese version of the Abnormal Involuntary Movements Scale (AIMS) for tardive dyskinesia in Brazilian patients

The objective of the present study was to evaluate the reliability and clinical utility of a Portuguese version of the Abnormal Involuntary Movements Scale (AIMS). Videotaped interviews with 16 psychiatric inpatients treated with antipsychotic drugs for at least 5 years were evaluated. Reliability was assessed by the intraclass correlation coefficient (ICC) between three raters, two with and one without clinical training in psychopathology. Clinical utility was assessed by the difference between the scores of patients with (N = 11) and without (N = 5) tardive dyskinesia (TD). Patients with TD exhibited a higher severity of global evaluation by the AIMS (sum of scores: 4.2 ± 0.9 vs 0.4 ± 0.2; score on item 8: 2.3 ± 0.3 vs 0.4 ± 0.2, TD vs controls). The ICC for the global evaluation was fair between the two skilled raters (0.58-0.62) and poor between these raters and the rater without clinical experience (0.05-0.29). Thus, we concluded that the Portuguese version of the AIMS shows an acceptable inter-rater reliability, but only between clinically skilled raters, and that it is clinically useful.

Random amplification of polymorphic DNA reveals clonal relationships among enteropathogenic Escherichia coli isolated from non-human primates and humans

Enteropathogenic Escherichia coli (EPEC) strains are important agents of infantile diarrhea all over the world, gaining even greater importance in developing countries. EPEC have also been isolated from various animal species, but most isolates belong to serotypes that differ from those recovered from humans. However, it has been demonstrated that several isolates from non-human primates belong to the serogroups and/or serotypes related to those implicated in human disease. The objective of this study was to evaluate the genetic differences between thirteen strains isolated from non-human primates and the same number of strains isolated from human infections. Human isolates belonged to the same serogroup/serotype as the monkey strains and the evaluation was done by analysis of random amplified polymorphic DNA. Dendrogram analysis showed that there was no clustering between human and monkey strains. Human and non-human isolates of the EPEC serotypes O127:H40 and O128:H2 shared 90 and 87% of their bands, respectively, indicating strong genomic similarity between the strains, leading to the speculation that they may have arisen from the same pathogenic clone. To our knowledge, this study is the first one comparing genomic similarity between human and non-human primate strains and the results provide further evidence that monkey EPEC strains correlate with human EPEC, as suggested in a previous investigation.

Clinical utility of standard base excess in the diagnosis and interpretation of metabolic acidosis in critically ill patients

The aims of this study were to determine whether standard base excess (SBE) is a useful diagnostic tool for metabolic acidosis, whether metabolic acidosis is clinically relevant in daily evaluation of critically ill patients, and to identify the most robust acid-base determinants of SBE. Thirty-one critically ill patients were enrolled. Arterial blood samples were drawn at admission and 24 h later. SBE, as calculated by Van Slyke's (SBE VS) or Wooten's (SBE W) equations, accurately diagnosed metabolic acidosis (AUC = 0.867, 95%CI = 0.690-1.043 and AUC = 0.817, 95%CI = 0.634-0.999, respectively). SBE VS was weakly correlated with total SOFA (r = -0.454, P < 0.001) and was similar to SBE W (r = -0.482, P < 0.001). All acid-base variables were categorized as SBE VS <-2 mEq/L or SBE VS <-5 mEq/L. SBE VS <-2 mEq/L was better able to identify strong ion gap acidosis than SBE VS <-5 mEq/L; there were no significant differences regarding other variables. To demonstrate unmeasured anions, anion gap (AG) corrected for albumin (AG A) was superior to AG corrected for albumin and phosphate (AG A+P) when strong ion gap was used as the standard method. Mathematical modeling showed that albumin level, apparent strong ion difference, AG A, and lactate concentration explained SBE VS variations with an R² = 0.954. SBE VS with a cut-off value of <-2 mEq/L was the best tool to diagnose clinically relevant metabolic acidosis. To analyze the components of SBE VS shifts at the bedside, AG A, apparent strong ion difference, albumin level, and lactate concentration are easily measurable variables that best represent the partitioning of acid-base derangements.

Utility of a novel risk score for prediction of ventricular tachycardia and cardiac death in chronic Chagas disease - the SEARCH-RIO study

The SEARCH-RIO study prospectively investigated electrocardiogram (ECG)-derived variables in chronic Chagas disease (CCD) as predictors of cardiac death and new onset ventricular tachycardia (VT). Cardiac arrhythmia is a major cause of death in CCD, and electrical markers may play a significant role in risk stratification. One hundred clinically stable outpatients with CCD were enrolled in this study. They initially underwent a 12-lead resting ECG, signal-averaged ECG, and 24-h ambulatory ECG. Abnormal Q-waves, filtered QRS duration, intraventricular electrical transients (IVET), 24-h standard deviation of normal RR intervals (SDNN), and VT were assessed. Echocardiograms assessed left ventricular ejection fraction. Predictors of cardiac death and new onset VT were identified in a Cox proportional hazard model. During a mean follow-up of 95.3 months, 36 patients had adverse events: 22 new onset VT (mean±SD, 18.4±4‰/year) and 20 deaths (26.4±1.8‰/year). In multivariate analysis, only Q-wave (hazard ratio, HR=6.7; P<0.001), VT (HR=5.3; P<0.001), SDNN<100 ms (HR=4.0; P=0.006), and IVET+ (HR=3.0; P=0.04) were independent predictors of the composite endpoint of cardiac death and new onset VT. A prognostic score was developed by weighting points proportional to beta coefficients and summing-up: Q-wave=2; VT=2; SDNN<100 ms=1; IVET+=1. Receiver operating characteristic curve analysis optimized the cutoff value at >1. In 10,000 bootstraps, the C-statistic of this novel score was non-inferior to a previously validated (Rassi) score (0.89±0.03 and 0.80±0.05, respectively; test for non-inferiority: P<0.001). In CCD, surface ECG-derived variables are predictors of cardiac death and new onset VT.

Random-start controlled ovarian stimulation for emergency fertility preservation in a patient with myelodysplastic syndrome: a case report

This study reports a case of a gonadotropin-releasing hormone agonist trigger in a young female with myelodysplastic syndrome (MDS) who underwent fertility preservation using random-start controlled ovarian stimulation. This method involves the stimulation of the ovary regardless of a patient's menstrual-cycle phase. A review of the related literature is also provided. A 17-year-old patient was diagnosed with MDS and required initiation of peripheral blood stem cell transplantation within a maximum of 3 weeks and was in the luteal phase of the menstrual cycle when the possibility of attempting preservation of fertility was presented to her. She opted for a random-start controlled ovarian stimulation with gonadotropins. With successful hemorrhagic prophylaxis, 17 oocytes were retrieved including 10 mature and 7 immature oocytes. Of the immature oocytes, 3 were successfully matured in vitro and a vitrification protocol was used to freeze the 13 mature oocytes.

Optimization of random amplified polymorphic DNA protocol for molecular identification of Lophius gastrophysus

Lophius gastrophysus has important commercial value in Brazil particularly for foreign trade. In this study, we described the optimization of Random Amplified Polymorphic DNA (RAPD) protocol for identification of L. gastrophysus. Different conditions (annealing temperatures, MgCl concentrations, DNA quantity) were tested to find reproducible and adequate profiles. Amplifications performed with primers A01, ² A02 and A03 generate the best RAPD profiles when the conditions were annealing temperature of 36ºC, 25 ng of DNA quantity and 2.5 mM MgCl2. Exact identification of the species and origin of marine products is necessary and RAPD could be used as an accurate, rapid tool to expose commercial fraud.

Análise da pureza genética e discriminação de cultivares de vinca (Catharanthus roseus (L.) G.Don) usando "random amplified polymorphic DNA" em DNA extraído de sementes e folhas

A técnica "Random Amplified Polymorphic DNA" (RAPD) surgiu como uma ferramenta útil para testar a pureza genética e a discriminação de cultivares em muitas espécies. É uma técnica simples, rápida, relativamente de baixo custo e permite o uso de DNA extraído de sementes secas, o que é muito importante em um programa de análise de sementes. O uso desta tecnologia no teste da pureza genética pode ser muito interessante para algumas espécies, como a vinca (Catharanthus roseus (L.) G.Don), pois pouco se conhece a respeito da seqüência de seu DNA. É interessante, também, pelo fato de existir grande número de "primers" comercialmente disponíveis, que podem ser prontamente utilizados para gerar dados. Essa técnica pode ser mais facilmente utilizada para gerar padrões de bandas polimórficas suficientes para discriminar genótipos diferentes. Todavia, no presente estudo, os padrões RAPD de bandas obtidas de amostras de DNA extraído de sementes de vinca em "bulk" foram não-consistentes, o mesmo ocorrendo com o uso de DNA extraído de sementes individuais de um mesmo cultivar, o que evidencia que a técnica não é aplicável para testar a pureza genética e a discriminação de cultivares de vinca. Entretanto, os padrões de bandas RAPD gerados a partir de DNA extraído de tecido foliar de plântulas foram mais reproduzíveis e poderiam ser considerados na caracterização de cultivares.

Public-private partnership investments in dry ports – Russian logistics markets and risks

The investments have always been considered as an essential backbone and so-called ‘locomotive’ for the competitive economies. However, in various countries, the state has been put under tight budget constraints for the investments in capital intensive projects. In response to this situation, the cooperation between public and private sector has grown based on public-private mechanism. The promotion of favorable arrangement for collaboration between public and private sectors for the provision of policies, services, and infrastructure in Russia can help to address the problems of dry ports development that neither municipalities nor the private sector can solve alone. Especially, the stimulation of public-private collaboration is significant under the exposure to externalities that affect the magnitude of the risks during all phases of project realization. In these circumstances, the risk in the projects also is becoming increasingly a part of joint research and risk management practice, which is viewed as a key approach, aiming to take active actions on existing global and specific factors of uncertainties. Meanwhile, a relatively little progress has been made on the inclusion of the resilience aspects into the planning process of a dry ports construction that would instruct the capacity planner, on how to mitigate the occurrence of disruptions that may lead to million dollars of losses due to the deviation of the future cash flows from the expected financial flows on the project. The current experience shows that the existing methodological base is developed fragmentary within separate steps of supply chain risk management (SCRM) processes: risk identification, risk evaluation, risk mitigation, risk monitoring and control phases. The lack of the systematic approach hinders the solution of the problem of risk management processes of dry port implementation. Therefore, management of various risks during the investments phases of dry port projects still presents a considerable challenge from the practical and theoretical points of view. In this regard, the given research became a logical continuation of fundamental research, existing in the financial models and theories (e.g., capital asset pricing model and real option theory), as well as provided a complementation for the portfolio theory. The goal of the current study is in the design of methods and models for the facilitation of dry port implementation through the mechanism of public-private partnership on the national market that implies the necessity to mitigate, first and foremost, the shortage of the investments and consequences of risks. The problem of the research was formulated on the ground of the identified contradictions. They rose as a continuation of the trade-off between the opportunities that the investors can gain from the development of terminal business in Russia (i.e. dry port implementation) and risks. As a rule, the higher the investment risk, the greater should be their expected return. However, investors have a different tolerance for the risks. That is why it would be advisable to find an optimum investment. In the given study, the optimum relates to the search for the efficient portfolio, which can provide satisfaction to the investor, depending on its degree of risk aversion. There are many theories and methods in finance, concerning investment choices. Nevertheless, the appropriateness and effectiveness of particular methods should be considered with the allowance of the specifics of the investment projects. For example, the investments in dry ports imply not only the lump sum of financial inflows, but also the long-term payback periods. As a result, capital intensity and longevity of their construction determine the necessity from investors to ensure the return on investment (profitability), along with the rapid return on investment (liquidity), without precluding the fact that the stochastic nature of the project environment is hardly described by the formula-based approach. The current theoretical base for the economic appraisals of the dry port projects more often perceives net present value (NPV) as a technique superior to other decision-making criteria. For example, the portfolio theory, which considers different risk preference of an investor and structures of utility, defines net present value as a better criterion of project appraisal than discounted payback period (DPP). Meanwhile, in business practice, the DPP is more popular. Knowing that the NPV is based on the assumptions of certainty of project life, it cannot be an accurate appraisal approach alone to determine whether or not the project should be accepted for the approval in the environment that is not without of uncertainties. In order to reflect the period or the project’s useful life that is exposed to risks due to changes in political, operational, and financial factors, the second capital budgeting criterion – discounted payback period is profoundly important, particularly for the Russian environment. Those statements represent contradictions that exist in the theory and practice of the applied science. Therefore, it would be desirable to relax the assumptions of portfolio theory and regard DPP as not fewer relevant appraisal approach for the assessment of the investment and risk measure. At the same time, the rationality of the use of both project performance criteria depends on the methods and models, with the help of which these appraisal approaches are calculated in feasibility studies. The deterministic methods cannot ensure the required precision of the results, while the stochastic models guarantee the sufficient level of the accuracy and reliability of the obtained results, providing that the risks are properly identified, evaluated, and mitigated. Otherwise, the project performance indicators may not be confirmed during the phase of project realization. For instance, the economic and political instability can result in the undoing of hard-earned gains, leading to the need for the attraction of the additional finances for the project. The sources of the alternative investments, as well as supportive mitigation strategies, can be studied during the initial phases of project development. During this period, the effectiveness of the investments undertakings can also be improved by the inclusion of the various investors, e.g. Russian Railways’ enterprises and other private companies in the dry port projects. However, the evaluation of the effectiveness of the participation of different investors in the project lack the methods and models that would permit doing the particular feasibility study, foreseeing the quantitative characteristics of risks and their mitigation strategies, which can meet the tolerance of the investors to the risks. For this reason, the research proposes a combination of Monte Carlo method, discounted cash flow technique, the theory of real options, and portfolio theory via a system dynamics simulation approach. The use of this methodology allows for comprehensive risk management process of dry port development to cover all aspects of risk identification, risk evaluation, risk mitigation, risk monitoring, and control phases. A designed system dynamics model can be recommended for the decision-makers on the dry port projects that are financed via a public-private partnership. It permits investors to make a decision appraisal based on random variables of net present value and discounted payback period, depending on different risks factors, e.g. revenue risks, land acquisition risks, traffic volume risks, construction hazards, and political risks. In this case, the statistical mean is used for the explication of the expected value of the DPP and NPV; the standard deviation is proposed as a characteristic of risks, while the elasticity coefficient is applied for rating of risks. Additionally, the risk of failure of project investments and guaranteed recoupment of capital investment can be considered with the help of the model. On the whole, the application of these modern methods of simulation creates preconditions for the controlling of the process of dry port development, i.e. making managerial changes and identifying the most stable parameters that contribute to the optimal alternative scenarios of the project realization in the uncertain environment. System dynamics model allows analyzing the interactions in the most complex mechanism of risk management process of the dry ports development and making proposals for the improvement of the effectiveness of the investments via an estimation of different risk management strategies. For the comparison and ranking of these alternatives in their order of preference to the investor, the proposed indicators of the efficiency of the investments, concerning the NPV, DPP, and coefficient of variation, can be used. Thus, rational investors, who averse to taking increased risks unless they are compensated by the commensurate increase in the expected utility of a risky prospect of dry port development, can be guided by the deduced marginal utility of investments. It is computed on the ground of the results from the system dynamics model. In conclusion, the outlined theoretical and practical implications for the management of risks, which are the key characteristics of public-private partnerships, can help analysts and planning managers in budget decision-making, substantially alleviating the effect from various risks and avoiding unnecessary cost overruns in dry port projects.