Estimating United States Phillips Curves With Expectations Consistent With The Statistical Process Of Inflation

‘Modern’ Phillips curve theories predict inflation is an integrated, or near integrated, process. However, inflation appears bounded above and below in developed economies and so cannot be ‘truly’ integrated and more likely stationary around a shifting mean. If agents believe inflation is integrated as in the ‘modern’ theories then they are making systematic errors concerning the statistical process of inflation. An alternative theory of the Phillips curve is developed that is consistent with the ‘true’ statistical process of inflation. It is demonstrated that United States inflation data is consistent with the alternative theory but not with the existing ‘modern’ theories.

Development of mavoglurant and its potential for the treatment of fragile X syndrome.

Introduction: Fragile X syndrome (FXS) is the most common inherited cause of intellectual disability. With no curative treatment available, current therapeutic approaches are aimed at symptom management. FXS is caused by silencing the FMR1 gene, which encodes FMRP; as loss of FMRP leads to the development of symptoms associated with FXS. Areas covered: In this evaluation, the authors examine the role of the metabotropic glutamate receptor 5 (mGluR5) in the pathophysiology of FXS, and its suitability as a target for rescuing the disease state. Furthermore, the authors review the evidence from preclinical studies of pharmacological interventions targeting mGluR5 in FXS. Lastly, the authors assess the findings from clinical studies in FXS, in particular the use of the Aberrant Behavior Checklist-Community Edition (ABC-C) and the recently developed ABC-C for FXS scale, as clinical endpoints to assess disease modification in this patient population. Expert opinion: There is cautious optimism for the successful treatment of the core behavioral and cognitive symptoms of FXS based on preclinical data in animal models and early studies in humans. However, the association between mGluR5-heightened responsiveness and the clinical phenotype in humans remains to be demonstrated. Many questions regarding the optimal treatment and outcome measures of FXS remain unanswered.

Arch and Structural Breaks in United States Inflation

United States Phillips curves are routinely estimated without accounting for the shifts in mean inflation. As a result we may expect the standard estimates of Phillips curves to be biased and suffer from ARCH. We demonstrate this is indeed the case. We also demonstrate that once the shifts in mean inflation are accounted for the ARCH is largely eliminated in the estimated model and the model defining expected rate of inflation in the New Keynesian model plays no significant role in the dynamics of inflation.

Determinants of public education expenditure: Evidence from Indian states

Public education expenditure varies significantly across Indian states. Using data on sixteen Indian states from 2001-2010, the paper tries to identify the determinants of per capita education expenditure of state governments in India. The econometric findings indicate that richer states spend more on education compared to the poorer states. A lower share of child population (0-14 years) is found to significantly enhance education expenditure at the state level. We do not find any evidence that political factors such as political ideology of the ruling party and level of corruption affect education expenditure of state governments.

On a size-structured two-phase population model with infinite states-at-birth

In this work we introduce and analyze a linear size-structured population model with infinite states-at-birth. We model the dynamics of a population in which individuals have two distinct life-stages: an “active” phase when individuals grow, reproduce and die and a second “resting” phase when individuals only grow. Transition between these two phases depends on individuals’ size. First we show that the problem is governed by a positive quasicontractive semigroup on the biologically relevant state space. Then we investigate, in the framework of the spectral theory of linear operators, the asymptotic behavior of solutions of the model. We prove that the associated semigroup has, under biologically plausible assumptions, the property of asynchronous exponential growth.

A Multiple Break Panel Approach to Estimating United States Phillips Curves

Phillips curves are often estimated without due attention being paid to the underlying time series properties of the data. In particular, the consequences of inflation having discrete breaks in mean have not been studied adequately. We show by means of simulations and a detailed empirical example based on United States data that not taking account of breaks may lead to biased, and therefore spurious, estimates of Phillips curves. We suggest a method to account for the breaks in mean inflation and obtain meaningful and unbiased estimates of the short- and long-run Phillips curves in the United States.

Semigroup analysis of structured populations with distributed states-at-birth arising in mathematical aquaculture

Motivated by the modelling of structured parasite populations in aquaculture we consider a class of physiologically structured population models, where individuals may be recruited into the population at different sizes in general. That is, we consider a size-structured population model with distributed states-at-birth. The mathematical model which describes the evolution of such a population is a first order nonlinear partial integro-differential equation of hyperbolic type. First, we use positive perturbation arguments and utilise results from the spectral theory of semigroups to establish conditions for the existence of a positive equilibrium solution of our model. Then we formulate conditions that guarantee that the linearised system is governed by a positive quasicontraction semigroup on the biologically relevant state space. We also show that the governing linear semigroup is eventually compact, hence growth properties of the semigroup are determined by the spectrum of its generator. In case of a separable fertility function we deduce a characteristic equation and investigate the stability of equilibrium solutions in the general case using positive perturbation arguments.

Microphallus fonti sp. n. (Digenea: Microphaliidae) from the red swamp crawfish in southern United States

A new species of digenean, Microphallus fonti, is described from the red swamp crawfish in Lousiania, U.S.A. It has a small pharynx and a rudimentary gut like M. opacus and a possibly related species from crayfishes, but it differs from them by its relatively large male copulatory papilla and a conspicuous metraterm.

Stable stationary states of non-local interaction equations

"Vegeu el resum a l'inici del document del fitxer adjunt."

The efficacy of melatonin for sleep problems in children with autism, fragile X syndrome, or autism and fragile X syndrome.

STUDY OBJECTIVE: To determine the efficacy of melatonin on sleep problems in children with autistic spectrum disorder (ASD) and fragile X syndrome (FXS). METHODS: A 4-week, randomized, double blind, placebo-controlled, crossover design was conducted following a 1-week baseline period. Either melatonin, 3 mg, or placebo was given to participants for 2 weeks and then alternated for another 2 weeks. Sleep variables, including sleep duration, sleep-onset time, sleep-onset latency time, and the number of night awakenings, were recorded using an Actiwatch and from sleep diaries completed by parents. All participants had been thoroughly assessed for ASD and also had DNA testing for the diagnosis of FXS. RESULTS: Data were successfully obtained from the 12 of 18 subjects who completed the study (11 males, age range 2 to 15.25 years, mean 5.47, SD 3.6). Five participants met diagnostic criteria for ASD, 3 for FXS alone, 3 for FXS and ASD, and 1 for fragile X premutation. Eight out of 12 had melatonin first. The conclusions from a nonparametric repeated-measures technique indicate that mean night sleep duration was longer on melatonin than placebo by 21 minutes (p = .02), mean sleep-onset latency was shorter by 28 minutes (p = .0001), and mean sleep-onset time was earlier by 42 minutes (p = .02). CONCLUSION: The results of this study support the efficacy and tolerability of melatonin treatment for sleep problems in children with ASD and FXS.

Inflation dynamics and the New Keynesian Phillips curve in EU-4

The paper seeks to shed light on inflation dynamics of four new EU member states: the Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland and Slovakia. To this end, the New Keynesian Phillips curve augmented for open economies is estimated and additional statistical tests applied. We find the following. (1) The claim of New Keynesians that the real marginal cost is the main inflation-forcing variable is fragile. (2) Inflation seems to be driven by external factors. (3) Although inflation holds a forward-looking component, the backward-looking component is substantial. An intuitive explanation for higher inflation persistence may be rather adaptive than rational price setting of local firms.

Longer-term impacts of mentoring, educational services, and incentives to learn: evidence from a randomized trial in the United States

This paper is the first to use a randomized trial in the US to analyze the short- and long-term educational and employment impacts of an afterschool program that offered disadvantaged high-school youth: mentoring, educational services, and financial rewards with the objective to improve high-school graduation and postsecondary schooling enrollment. The short-term hefty beneficial average impacts quickly faded away. Heterogeneity matters. While encouraging results are found for younger youth, and when the program is implemented in relatively small communities of 9th graders; detrimental longlived outcomes are found for males, and when case managers are partially compensated by incentive payments and students receive more regular reminders of incentives.