Signalling and Productivity Effects of Overeducation: Is It Really a Waste of Resources?

Overeducation raises concerns that governments may be overinvesting in education. To inform the debate, this paper studies the impact of overeducation on productivity. We advance the literature by considering that returns to overeducation may be due both to productivity and signalling effects. To disentangle both effects, we apply Wolpin’s (1977) methodology and compare the rates of return of screened (employed) and unscreened (selfemployed) workers. To overcome well-known endogeneity problems due to unobserved heterogeneity, we estimate a panel with individual and employment-status fixed effects. Our results show that signalling effects are relevant and that overeducation does not carry a productivity penalty. Keywords: Overeducation, signalling model, human capital model, unobserved heterogeneity. JEL classification: I20, J24, J31.

Economics of public governance with strategic production of information: four essays

SUMMARY This paper analyses the outcomes of the EEA and bilateral agreements vote at the level of the 3025 communities of the Swiss Confederation by simultaneously modelling the vote and the participation decisions. Regressions include economic and political factors. The economic variables are the aggregated shares of people employed in the losing, Winning and neutral sectors, according to BRUNETTI, JAGGI and WEDER (1998) classification, Which follows a Ricardo-Viner logic, and the average education levels, which follows a Heckscher-Ohlin approach. The political factors are those used in the recent literature. The results are extremely precise and consistent. Most of the variables have the predicted sign and are significant at the l % level. More than 80 % of the communities' vote variance is explained by the model, substantially reducing the residuals when compared to former studies. The political variables do have the expected signs and are significant as Well. Our results underline the importance of the interaction between electoral choice and participation decisions as well as the importance of simultaneously dealing with those issues. Eventually they reveal the electorate's high level of information and rationality. ZUSAMMENFASSUNG Unser Beitrag analysiert in einem Model, welches gleichzeitig die Stimm- ("ja" oder "nein") und Partizipationsentscheidung einbezieht, den Ausgang der Abstimmungen über den Beitritt zum EWR und über die bilateralen Verträge für die 3025 Gemeinden der Schweiz. Die Regressionsgleichungen beinhalten ökonomische und politische Variabeln. Die ökonomischen Variabeln beinhalten die Anteile an sektoriellen Arbeitsplatzen, die, wie in BRUNETTI, JAGGIl.1I1d WEDER (1998), in Gewinner, Verlierer und Neutrale aufgeteilt Wurden, gemäß dem Model von Ricardo-Viner, und das durchschnittliche Ausbildungsniveau, gemäß dem Model von Heckscher-Ohlin. Die politischen Variabeln sind die in der gegenwärtigen Literatur üblichen. Unsere Resultate sind bemerkenswert präzise und kohärent. Die meisten Variabeln haben das von der Theorie vorausgesagte Vorzeichen und sind hoch signifikant (l%). Mehr als 80% der Varianz der Stimmabgabe in den Gemeinden wird durch das Modell erklärt, was, im Vergleich mit früheren Arbeiten, die unerklärten Residuen Wesentlich verkleinert. Die politischen Variabeln haben auch die erwarteten Vorzeichen und sind signifikant. Unsere Resultate unterstreichen die Bedeutung der Interaktion zwischen der Stimm- und der Partizipationsentscheidung, und die Bedeutung diese gleichzeitig zu behandeln. Letztendlich, belegen sie den hohen lnformationsgrad und die hohe Rationalität der Stimmbürger. RESUME Le présent article analyse les résultats des votations sur l'EEE et sur les accords bilatéraux au niveau des 3025 communes de la Confédération en modélisant simultanément les décisions de vote ("oui" ou "non") et de participation. Les régressions incluent des déterminants économiques et politiques. Les déterminants économiques sont les parts d'emploi sectoriels agrégées en perdants, gagnants et neutres selon la classification de BRUNETTI, JAGGI ET WEDER (1998), suivant la logique du modèle Ricardo-Viner, et les niveaux de diplômes moyens, suivant celle du modèle Heckscher-Ohlin. Les déterminants politiques suivent de près ceux utilisés dans la littérature récente. Les résultats sont remarquablement précis et cohérents. La plupart des variables ont les signes prédits par les modèles et sont significatives a 1%. Plus de 80% de la variance du vote par commune sont expliqués par le modèle, faisant substantiellement reculer la part résiduelle par rapport aux travaux précédents. Les variables politiques ont aussi les signes attendus et sont aussi significatives. Nos résultats soulignent l'importance de l'interaction entre choix électoraux et décisions de participation et l'importance de les traiter simultanément. Enfin, ils mettent en lumière les niveaux élevés d'information et de rationalité de l'électorat.

Evaluation of four whole-plant inoculation methods to analyze the pathogenicity of Erwinia amylovora under quarantine conditions

Four methods were tested to assess the fire-blight disease response on grafted pear plants. The leaves of the plants were inoculated with Erwinia amylovora suspensions by pricking with clamps, cutting with scissors, local infiltration, and painting a bacterial suspension onto the leaves with a paintbrush. The effects of the inoculation methods were studied in dose-time-response experiments carried out in climate chambers under quarantine conditions. A modified Gompertz model was used to analyze the disease-time relatiobbnships and provided information on the rate of infection progression (rg) and time delay to the start of symptoms (t0). The disease-pathogen-dose relationships were analyzed according to a hyperbolic saturation model in which the median effective dose (ED50) of the pathogen and maximum disease level (ymax) were determined. Localized infiltration into the leaf mesophile resulted in the early (short t0) but slow (low rg) development of infection whereas in leaves pricked with clamps disease symptoms developed late (long t0) but rapidly (high rg). Paintbrush inoculation of the plants resulted in an incubation period of medium length, a moderate rate of infection progression, and low ymax values. In leaves inoculated with scissors, fire-blight symptoms developed early (short t0) and rapidly (high rg), and with the lowest ED50 and the highest ymax

Distributed all-atom simulations of intrinsically unstructured proteins

The Computational Biophysics Group at the Universitat Pompeu Fabra (GRIB-UPF) hosts two unique computational resources dedicated to the execution of large scale molecular dynamics (MD) simulations: (a) the ACMD molecular-dynamics software, used on standard personal computers with graphical processing units (GPUs); and (b) the GPUGRID. net computing network, supported by users distributed worldwide that volunteer GPUs for biomedical research. We leveraged these resources and developed studies, protocols and open-source software to elucidate energetics and pathways of a number of biomolecular systems, with a special focus on flexible proteins with many degrees of freedom. First, we characterized ion permeation through the bactericidal model protein Gramicidin A conducting one of the largest studies to date with the steered MD biasing methodology. Next, we addressed an open problem in structural biology, the determination of drug-protein association kinetics; we reconstructed the binding free energy, association, and dissaciociation rates of a drug like model system through a spatial decomposition and a Makov-chain analysis. The work was published in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences and become one of the few landmark papers elucidating a ligand-binding pathway. Furthermore, we investigated the unstructured Kinase Inducible Domain (KID), a 28-peptide central to signalling and transcriptional response; the kinetics of this challenging system was modelled with a Markovian approach in collaboration with Frank Noe’s group at the Freie University of Berlin. The impact of the funding includes three peer-reviewed publication on high-impact journals; three more papers under review; four MD analysis components, released as open-source software; MD protocols; didactic material, and code for the hosting group.

Organizational resources and intrapreneurial activities: a cross-country study

The importance of entrepreneurship for social and economic growth is generally accepted. In addition, intrapreneurship or corporate entrepreneurship is recognized as one of the key elements for organizational development. In this context, corporate culture and, specifically, entrepreneurial competences are considered to be catalysts for intrapreneurship. The main purpose of this paper is to analyse the influence of resources and capabilities on the probability of becoming an intrapreneur. Using data obtained from the Global Entrepreneurship Monitor (GEM) for 39 countries, and a logistic model, the study shows that entrepreneurial resources and capabilities, such as previous entrepreneurial experience, entrepreneurial competences and the ability to detect business opportunities, influence intrapreneurial behaviour. The contributions of this research are both conceptual (advancing corporate entrepreneurship theory) and practical (relating to the design of policies to foster intrapreneurial activities).

A semantic model of selective dissemination of information for digital libraries

In this paper we present the theoretical and methodologicalfoundations for the development of a multi-agentSelective Dissemination of Information (SDI) servicemodel that applies Semantic Web technologies for specializeddigital libraries. These technologies make possibleachieving more efficient information management,improving agent–user communication processes, andfacilitating accurate access to relevant resources. Othertools used are fuzzy linguistic modelling techniques(which make possible easing the interaction betweenusers and system) and natural language processing(NLP) techniques for semiautomatic thesaurus generation.Also, RSS feeds are used as “current awareness bulletins”to generate personalized bibliographic alerts.

The impact of women's educational and economic resources on fertility: Spanish birth cohorts 1901-1950

In this chapter we portray the effects of female education and professional achievement on fertility decline in Spain over the period 1920-1980 (birth cohorts of 1901-1950).A longitudinal econometric approach is used to test the hypothesis that the effects of women’s education in the revaluing of their time had a very significant influence on fertility decline. Although in the historical context presented here improvements in schooling were on a modest scale, they were continuous (with the interruption of the Civil War) and had a significant impact in shaping a model of low fertility in Spain. We also stress the relevance of this result in a context such as the Spanish for which liberal values were absent, fertility control practices were forbidden, and labour force participation of women was politically and socially constrained.

Report of Recommendations to the State University of Iowa on the Review of Selected General and Application Controls over the University's Human Resources Information System, June 7, 2005-July 29, 2005

Other Audit Reports - Regent Institutions

Allostatic working memory processing in schizophrenia: Human and animal model coherence

The most evident symptoms of schizophrenia are severe impairment of cognitive functions like attention, abstract reasoning and working memory. The latter has been defined as the ability to maintain and manipulate on-line a limited amount of information. Whereas several studies show that working memory processes are impaired in schizophrenia, the specificity of this deficit is still unclear. Results obtained with a new paradigm, involving visuospatial, dynamic and static working memory processing, suggest that schizophrenic patients rely on a specific compensatory strategy. An animal model of schizophrenia with a transient deficit in glutathione during the development reveals similar substitutive processing, masking the impairment in working memory functions in specific test conditions only. Taken together, these results show coherence between working memory deficits in schizophrenic patients and in animal models. More generally, it is possible to consider that the pathological state may be interpreted as a reduced homeostatic reserve. However, this may be balanced in specific situations by efficient allostatic strategies. Thus, the pathological condition would remain latent in several situations, due to such allostatic regulations. However, to maintain a performance based on highly specific strategies requires in turn specific conditions, limitating adaptative resources in humans and in animals. In summary, we suggest that the psychological and physical load to maintain this rigid allostatic state is very high in patients and animal subjects.

Towards Integrated Governance of Landscape Development : The Swiss Model of Regional Nature Parks

Coherent regulation of landscape as a resource is a major challenge. How can the development interests of some actors (eg cable car operators and property developers) be reconciled with those of others (agriculture, forestry) and with conservation of biodiversity and scenic value? To help understand how the newly introduced Regional Nature Parks (RNPs) can improve the coherence of the regulation regime in Switzerland, we highlight current direct mechanisms for regulation of landscape as a resource (bans, inventories, subsidies) as well as indirect mechanisms (taking place through the regulation of the physical basis of landscapes, eg forest, land, and water planning policies). We show that RNPs are fundamentally innovative because they make it possible to manage and coordinate indirect strategies for appropriate regulation of resources at a landscape scale. In other words, RNPs enable organization of governance of landscape as a resource in a perimeter that is not necessarily restricted to administrative boundaries.

Financial Markets and Real Ecinomy: Four Essays in International Trade

Financial markets play an important role in an economy performing various functions like mobilizing and pooling savings, producing information about investment opportunities, screening and monitoring investments, implementation of corporate governance, diversification and management of risk. These functions influence saving rates, investment decisions, technological innovation and, therefore, have important implications for welfare. In my PhD dissertation I examine the interplay of financial and product markets by looking at different channels through which financial markets may influence an economy.My dissertation consists of four chapters. The first chapter is a co-authored work with Martin Strieborny, a PhD student from the University of Lausanne. The second chapter is a co-authored work with Melise Jaud, a PhD student from the Paris School of Economics. The third chapter is co-authored with both Melise Jaud and Martin Strieborny. The last chapter of my PhD dissertation is a single author paper.Chapter 1 of my PhD thesis analyzes the effect of financial development on growth of contract intensive industries. These industries intensively use intermediate inputs that neither can be sold on organized exchange, nor are reference-priced (Levchenko, 2007; Nunn, 2007). A typical example of a contract intensive industry would be an industry where an upstream supplier has to make investments in order to customize a product for needs of a downstream buyer. After the investment is made and the product is adjusted, the buyer may refuse to meet a commitment and trigger ex post renegotiation. Since the product is customized to the buyer's needs, the supplier cannot sell the product to a different buyer at the original price. This is referred in the literature as the holdup problem. As a consequence, the individually rational suppliers will underinvest into relationship-specific assets, hurting the downstream firms with negative consequences for aggregate growth. The standard way to mitigate the hold up problem is to write a binding contract and to rely on the legal enforcement by the state. However, even the most effective contract enforcement might fail to protect the supplier in tough times when the buyer lacks a reliable source of external financing. This suggests the potential role of financial intermediaries, banks in particular, in mitigating the incomplete contract problem. First, financial products like letters of credit and letters of guarantee can substantially decrease a risk and transaction costs of parties. Second, a bank loan can serve as a signal about a buyer's true financial situation, an upstream firm will be more willing undertake relationship-specific investment knowing that the business partner is creditworthy and will abstain from myopic behavior (Fama, 1985; von Thadden, 1995). Therefore, a well-developed financial (especially banking) system should disproportionately benefit contract intensive industries.The empirical test confirms this hypothesis. Indeed, contract intensive industries seem to grow faster in countries with a well developed financial system. Furthermore, this effect comes from a more developed banking sector rather than from a deeper stock market. These results are reaffirmed examining the effect of US bank deregulation on the growth of contract intensive industries in different states. Beyond an overall pro-growth effect, the bank deregulation seems to disproportionately benefit the industries requiring relationship-specific investments from their suppliers.Chapter 2 of my PhD focuses on the role of the financial sector in promoting exports of developing countries. In particular, it investigates how credit constraints affect the ability of firms operating in agri-food sectors of developing countries to keep exporting to foreign markets.Trade in high-value agri-food products from developing countries has expanded enormously over the last two decades offering opportunities for development. However, trade in agri-food is governed by a growing array of standards. Sanitary and Phytosanitary standards (SPS) and technical regulations impose additional sunk, fixed and operating costs along the firms' export life. Such costs may be detrimental to firms' survival, "pricing out" producers that cannot comply. The existence of these costs suggests a potential role of credit constraints in shaping the duration of trade relationships on foreign markets. A well-developed financial system provides the funds to exporters necessary to adjust production processes in order to meet quality and quantity requirements in foreign markets and to maintain long-standing trade relationships. The products with higher needs for financing should benefit the most from a well functioning financial system. This differential effect calls for a difference-in-difference approach initially proposed by Rajan and Zingales (1998). As a proxy for demand for financing of agri-food products, the sanitary risk index developed by Jaud et al. (2009) is used. The empirical literature on standards and norms show high costs of compliance, both variable and fixed, for high-value food products (Garcia-Martinez and Poole, 2004; Maskus et al., 2005). The sanitary risk index reflects the propensity of products to fail health and safety controls on the European Union (EU) market. Given the high costs of compliance, the sanitary risk index captures the demand for external financing to comply with such regulations.The prediction is empirically tested examining the export survival of different agri-food products from firms operating in Ghana, Mali, Malawi, Senegal and Tanzania. The results suggest that agri-food products that require more financing to keep up with food safety regulation of the destination market, indeed sustain longer in foreign market, when they are exported from countries with better developed financial markets.Chapter 3 analyzes the link between financial markets and efficiency of resource allocation in an economy. Producing and exporting products inconsistent with a country's factor endowments constitutes a serious misallocation of funds, which undermines competitiveness of the economy and inhibits its long term growth. In this chapter, inefficient exporting patterns are analyzed through the lens of the agency theories from the corporate finance literature. Managers may pursue projects with negative net present values because their perquisites or even their job might depend on them. Exporting activities are particularly prone to this problem. Business related to foreign markets involves both high levels of additional spending and strong incentives for managers to overinvest. Rational managers might have incentives to push for exports that use country's scarce factors which is suboptimal from a social point of view. Export subsidies might further skew the incentives towards inefficient exporting. Management can divert the export subsidies into investments promoting inefficient exporting.Corporate finance literature stresses the disciplining role of outside debt in counteracting the internal pressures to divert such "free cash flow" into unprofitable investments. Managers can lose both their reputation and the control of "their" firm if the unpaid external debt triggers a bankruptcy procedure. The threat of possible failure to satisfy debt service payments pushes the managers toward an efficient use of available resources (Jensen, 1986; Stulz, 1990; Hart and Moore, 1995). The main sources of debt financing in the most countries are banks. The disciplining role of banks might be especially important in the countries suffering from insufficient judicial quality. Banks, in pursuing their rights, rely on comparatively simple legal interventions that can be implemented even by mediocre courts. In addition to their disciplining role, banks can promote efficient exporting patterns in a more direct way by relaxing credit constraints of producers, through screening, identifying and investing in the most profitable investment projects. Therefore, a well-developed domestic financial system, and particular banking system, would help to push a country's exports towards products congruent with its comparative advantage.This prediction is tested looking at the survival of different product categories exported to US market. Products are identified according to the Euclidian distance between their revealed factor intensity and the country's factor endowments. The results suggest that products suffering from a comparative disadvantage (labour-intensive products from capital-abundant countries) survive less on the competitive US market. This pattern is stronger if the exporting country has a well-developed banking system. Thus, a strong banking sector promotes exports consistent with a country comparative advantage.Chapter 4 of my PhD thesis further examines the role of financial markets in fostering efficient resource allocation in an economy. In particular, the allocative efficiency hypothesis is investigated in the context of equity market liberalization.Many empirical studies document a positive and significant effect of financial liberalization on growth (Levchenko et al. 2009; Quinn and Toyoda 2009; Bekaert et al., 2005). However, the decrease in the cost of capital and the associated growth in investment appears rather modest in comparison to the large GDP growth effect (Bekaert and Harvey, 2005; Henry, 2000, 2003). Therefore, financial liberalization may have a positive impact on growth through its effect on the allocation of funds across firms and sectors.Free access to international capital markets allows the largest and most profitable domestic firms to borrow funds in foreign markets (Rajan and Zingales, 2003). As domestic banks loose some of their best clients, they reoptimize their lending practices seeking new clients among small and younger industrial firms. These firms are likely to be more risky than large and established companies. Screening of customers becomes prevalent as the return to screening rises. Banks, ceteris paribus, tend to focus on firms operating in comparative-advantage sectors because they are better risks. Firms in comparative-disadvantage sectors finding it harder to finance their entry into or survival in export markets either exit or refrain from entering export markets. On aggregate, one should therefore expect to see less entry, more exit, and shorter survival on export markets in those sectors after financial liberalization.The paper investigates the effect of financial liberalization on a country's export pattern by comparing the dynamics of entry and exit of different products in a country export portfolio before and after financial liberalization.The results suggest that products that lie far from the country's comparative advantage set tend to disappear relatively faster from the country's export portfolio following the liberalization of financial markets. In other words, financial liberalization tends to rebalance the composition of a country's export portfolio towards the products that intensively use the economy's abundant factors.

Effects of rat anti-VEGF antibody in a rat model of corneal graft rejection by topical and subconjunctival routes.

PURPOSE: To compare the effect of a rat anti-VEGF antibody, administered either by topical or subconjunctival (SC) routes, on a rat model of corneal transplant rejection.METHODS: Twenty-four rats underwent corneal transplantation and were randomized into four treatment groups (n=6 in each group). G1 and G2 received six SC injections (0.02 ml 10 µg/ml) of denatured (G1) or active (G2) anti-VEGF from Day 0 to Day 21 every third day. G3 and G4 were instilled three times a day with denatured (G3) or active (G4) anti-VEGF drops (10 µg/ml) from Day 0 to Day 21. Corneal mean clinical scores (MCSs) of edema (E), transparency (T), and neovessels (nv) were recorded at Days 3, 9, 15, and 21. Quantification of neovessels was performed after lectin staining of vessels on flat mounted corneas.RESULTS: Twenty-one days after surgery, MCSs differed significantly between G1 and G2, but not between G3 and G4, and the rejection rate was significantly reduced in rats receiving active antibodies regardless of the route of administration (G2=50%, G4=66.65% versus G1 and G3=100%; p<0.05). The mean surfaces of neovessels were significantly reduced in groups treated with active anti-VEGF (G2, G4). However, anti-VEGF therapy did not completely suppress corneal neovessels.CONCLUSIONS: Specific rat anti-VEGF antibodies significantly reduced neovascularization and subsequent corneal graft rejection. The SC administration of the anti-VEGF antibody was more effective than topical instillation.

A validated assay for measuring doxorubicin in biological fluids and tissues in an isolated lung perfusion model: matrix effect and heparin interference strongly influence doxorubicin measurements.

Doxorubicin is an antineoplasic agent active against sarcoma pulmonary metastasis, but its clinical use is hampered by its myelotoxicity and its cumulative cardiotoxicity, when administered systemically. This limitation may be circumvented using the isolated lung perfusion (ILP) approach, wherein a therapeutic agent is infused locoregionally after vascular isolation of the lung. The influence of the mode of infusion (anterograde (AG): through the pulmonary artery (PA); retrograde (RG): through the pulmonary vein (PV)) on doxorubicin pharmacokinetics and lung distribution was unknown. Therefore, a simple, rapid and sensitive high-performance liquid chromatography method has been developed to quantify doxorubicin in four different biological matrices (infusion effluent, serum, tissues with low or high levels of doxorubicin). The related compound daunorubicin was used as internal standard (I.S.). Following a single-step protein precipitation of 500 microl samples with 250 microl acetone and 50 microl zinc sulfate 70% aqueous solution, the obtained supernatant was evaporated to dryness at 60 degrees C for exactly 45 min under a stream of nitrogen and the solid residue was solubilized in 200 microl of purified water. A 100 microl-volume was subjected to HPLC analysis onto a Nucleosil 100-5 microm C18 AB column equipped with a guard column (Nucleosil 100-5 microm C(6)H(5) (phenyl) end-capped) using a gradient elution of acetonitrile and 1-heptanesulfonic acid 0.2% pH 4: 15/85 at 0 min-->50/50 at 20 min-->100/0 at 22 min-->15/85 at 24 min-->15/85 at 26 min, delivered at 1 ml/min. The analytes were detected by fluorescence detection with excitation and emission wavelength set at 480 and 550 nm, respectively. The calibration curves were linear over the range of 2-1000 ng/ml for effluent and plasma matrices, and 0.1 microg/g-750 microg/g for tissues matrices. The method is precise with inter-day and intra-day relative standard deviation within 0.5 and 6.7% and accurate with inter-day and intra-day deviations between -5.4 and +7.7%. The in vitro stability in all matrices and in processed samples has been studied at -80 degrees C for 1 month, and at 4 degrees C for 48 h, respectively. During initial studies, heparin used as anticoagulant was found to profoundly influence the measurements of doxorubicin in effluents collected from animals under ILP. Moreover, the strong matrix effect observed with tissues samples indicate that it is mandatory to prepare doxorubicin calibration standard samples in biological matrices which would reflect at best the composition of samples to be analyzed. This method was successfully applied in animal studies for the analysis of effluent, serum and tissue samples collected from pigs and rats undergoing ILP.

The Effect of Four-Lane to Three-Lane Conversion on the Number of Crashes and Crash Rates in Iowa Roads, June 2005

We analyze crash data collected by the Iowa Department of Transportation using Bayesian methods. The data set includes monthly crash numbers, estimated monthly traffic volumes, site length and other information collected at 30 paired sites in Iowa over more than 20 years during which an intervention experiment was set up. The intervention consisted in transforming 15 undivided road segments from four-lane to three lanes, while an additional 15 segments, thought to be comparable in terms of traffic safety-related characteristics were not converted. The main objective of this work is to find out whether the intervention reduces the number of crashes and the crash rates at the treated sites. We fitted a hierarchical Poisson regression model with a change-point to the number of monthly crashes per mile at each of the sites. Explanatory variables in the model included estimated monthly traffic volume, time, an indicator for intervention reflecting whether the site was a “treatment” or a “control” site, and various interactions. We accounted for seasonal effects in the number of crashes at a site by including smooth trigonometric functions with three different periods to reflect the four seasons of the year. A change-point at the month and year in which the intervention was completed for treated sites was also included. The number of crashes at a site can be thought to follow a Poisson distribution. To estimate the association between crashes and the explanatory variables, we used a log link function and added a random effect to account for overdispersion and for autocorrelation among observations obtained at the same site. We used proper but non-informative priors for all parameters in the model, and carried out all calculations using Markov chain Monte Carlo methods implemented in WinBUGS. We evaluated the effect of the four to three-lane conversion by comparing the expected number of crashes per year per mile during the years preceding the conversion and following the conversion for treatment and control sites. We estimated this difference using the observed traffic volumes at each site and also on a per 100,000,000 vehicles. We also conducted a prospective analysis to forecast the expected number of crashes per mile at each site in the study one year, three years and five years following the four to three-lane conversion. Posterior predictive distributions of the number of crashes, the crash rate and the percent reduction in crashes per mile were obtained for each site for the months of January and June one, three and five years after completion of the intervention. The model appears to fit the data well. We found that in most sites, the intervention was effective and reduced the number of crashes. Overall, and for the observed traffic volumes, the reduction in the expected number of crashes per year and mile at converted sites was 32.3% (31.4% to 33.5% with 95% probability) while at the control sites, the reduction was estimated to be 7.1% (5.7% to 8.2% with 95% probability). When the reduction in the expected number of crashes per year, mile and 100,000,000 AADT was computed, the estimates were 44.3% (43.9% to 44.6%) and 25.5% (24.6% to 26.0%) for converted and control sites, respectively. In both cases, the difference in the percent reduction in the expected number of crashes during the years following the conversion was significantly larger at converted sites than at control sites, even though the number of crashes appears to decline over time at all sites. Results indicate that the reduction in the expected number of sites per mile has a steeper negative slope at converted than at control sites. Consistent with this, the forecasted reduction in the number of crashes per year and mile during the years after completion of the conversion at converted sites is more pronounced than at control sites. Seasonal effects on the number of crashes have been well-documented. In this dataset, we found that, as expected, the expected number of monthly crashes per mile tends to be higher during winter months than during the rest of the year. Perhaps more interestingly, we found that there is an interaction between the four to three-lane conversion and season; the reduction in the number of crashes appears to be more pronounced during months, when the weather is nice than during other times of the year, even though a reduction was estimated for the entire year. Thus, it appears that the four to three-lane conversion, while effective year-round, is particularly effective in reducing the expected number of crashes in nice weather.

La chaîne des secours: le modèle vaudois [An efficient example of a Swiss pre-hospital chain of survival: the state of Vaud model].

The state of Vaud model of the pre-hospital chain of survival is an example of an efficient way to deal with pre-hospital emergencies. It revolves around a centrally located dispatch center managing emergencies according to specific key words, allowing dispatchers to send out resources among which we find general practitioners, ambulances, physician staffed fast response cars or physician staffed helicopters and specific equipment. The Vaud pre-hospital chain of survival has been tailored according to geographical, demographical and political necessities. It undergoes constant reassessment and needs continuous adaptations to the ever changing demographics and epidemiology of pre-hospital medicine.