A költségvetési politika fenntarthatósága és a szabályalapú gazdaságpolitika (The sustainability of fiscal policy and a rule-based economic policy)

A költségvetési pénzügyek irodalmában a fenntarthatóság koncepciója csak az elmúlt két-három évtizedben került újra a vizsgálódás fókuszába. Ennek oka kettős. Az 1960-as évek végéig a fegyelmezett fiskális politikai gyakorlat nem igényelte annak állandó napirenden tartását. Csak az olajválságok idejére eső és azután állandósulni látszó költségvetési hiányok és a növekvő államadósság-állományok, illetve az ezek okán erősödő adósságkockázat irányította újra a figyelmet a költségvetési fegyelem fenntartásának fontosságára. Ezt a változást a közgazdaságtudományi elmélettörténetben beállott gyökeres változás kísérte. Az aktív keresletmenedzsment bírálataként megfogalmazódó monetarista kritika, illetve annak radikálisabb újklasszikus változata, a politikai döntéshozókról (és így a diszkrecionális költségvetési politika hatásosságáról) lesújtó véleményt fogalmazott meg, ami azután az aktív intézkedések korlátozásának irányába terelte a gazdaságpolitika alakítóit is. A következőkben e kettős – a fiskális politikai gyakorlat és a közgazdasági elméletek területén bekövetkezett –fordulat bemutatására vállalkozunk az Akadémiai Kiadónál megjelenő Költségvetési pénzügyek – Hiány, államadósság, fenntarthatóság című kötetünk bizonyos részeinek felhasználásával.

Fiscal Divergence and Business Cycle Synchronization: Irresponsibility is Idiosyncratic

Using a panel of 21 OECD countries and 40 years of annual data, we find that countries with similar government budget positions tend to have business cycles that fluctuate more closely. That is, fiscal convergence (in the form of persistently similar ratios of government surplus/deficit to GDP) is systematically associated with more synchronized business cycles. We also find evidence that reduced fiscal deficits increase business cycle synchronization. The Maastricht "convergence criteria," used to determine eligibility for EMU, encouraged fiscal convergence and deficit reduction. They may thus have indirectly moved Europe closer to an optimum currency area, by reducing countries’ abilities to create idiosyncratic fiscal shocks. Our empirical results are economically and statistically significant, and robust.

A fiskális divergencia és a konjunktúraciklusok együttmozgása - a felelőtlen fiskális politika az aszimmetrikus sokkok forrása (Fiscal divergence and business cycle synchronization: irresponsibility is idiosyncratic)

A világ 115 országának - köztük 21 OECD-tagország - 40 évnyi adatait vizsgálva, arra a következtetésre jutottunk, hogy a hasonló állami költségvetési pozíciójú országok konjunktúraciklusai között szorosabb együttmozgás mutatható ki. Azaz, a fiskális konvergenciát (amelyet a költségvetési egyenleg GDP-hez viszonyt arányának konvergenciájaként definiáltunk) összehangoltabb konjunktúraciklusokkal lehet összefüggésbe hozni. Kutatásaink során arra is találtunk bizonyítékot, hogy a kisebb mértékű költségvetési deficitek növelik a konjunktúraciklusok együttmozgását. A maastrichti konvergenciakritériumok - amelyek az európai monetáris unió követelményeinek való megfelelést hivatottak meghatározni - a fiskális konvergenciát és a költségvetési deficit csökkentését ösztönözték, s ezzel közvetett módon hozzásegítették Európát egy optimális valutaövezet létrehozásához azáltal, hogy csökkent az egyes országok lehetősége a felelőtlen fiskális politika által gerjesztett sokkhatások létrehozására. Az általunk feltárt empirikus eredmények gazdasági és statisztikai szempontból is szignifikánsak és robusztusak. _____ Using panels of 115 countries of world – including 21 OECD countries – and 40 years of annual data, the authors find that countries with similar government budget positions tend to have business cycles that fluctuate more closely. Thus fiscal convergence (in the form of persistently similar ratios of government surplus/deficit to GDP) is systemati-cally associated with more strongly synchronized business cycles. Evidence is also found that reduced fiscal deficits increase business-cycle synchronization. The Maastricht "con-vergence criteria", used to determine eligibility for EMU, encouraged fiscal convergence and deficit reduction. So they may, indirectly, have moved Europe closer to an optimum currency area, by reducing countries abilities to create idiosyncratic fiscal shocks. The empirical results of the study are economically and statistically significant, and robust.

The civil war of ideas: Ayn Rand, intellectual freedom, and the regulation of thought in the Soviet Union and United States, 1905-1943

The philosopher and novelist Ayn Rand (1905–1982) is an icon of American culture. That culture misunderstands her, however. It perceives her solely as a pure market conservative. In the first forty years of her life, Rand's individualism was intellectual and served as a defense for the free trade of ideas. It originated in the Russian Revolution. In 1926, when Rand left the Soviet Union, she developed her individualism into an American philosophy. Her ideas of the individual in society belonged to a debate where intellectuals intended to abolish the State and free man and woman from its intellectual snares. To present Rand as a freethinker allows me to examine her anticommunism as a reaction against Leninism and to consider the relation of her ideas to Marxism. This approach stresses that Rand, as Marx, opposed the State and argued for the historical importance of a capitalist revolution. For Rand the latter, however, depended on an entrepreneurial class that rejected Protestantism as ideology – which she contended threatened its interests because Christianity had lost its historical significance. This exposes the nature of Rand's intellectual individualism in American society, where the majority on the entire political spectrum still identified with the teachings of Christ. It also reveals the dynamics of her anticommunism. From 1926 to 1943, Rand remodeled American individualism and as she did so, she determined her opposition first to the New Deal liberals and second business conservatives. To these ends, Marxism and Protestantism served Rand's individualism and made her an American icon of the twentieth century.

Fiscal decentralization and development: An analysis of city governments in Argentina and Mexico, 1980--2010

This dissertation examines local governments' efforts to promote economic development in Latin America. The research uses a mixed method to explore how cities make decisions to innovate, develop, and finance economic development programs. First, this study provides a comparative analysis of decentralization policies in Argentina and Mexico as a means to gain a better understanding of the degree of autonomy exercised by local governments. Then, it analyzes three local governments each within the province of Santa Fe, Argentina and the State of Guanajuato, Mexico. The principal hypothesis of this dissertation is that if local governments collect more own-source tax revenue, they are more likely to promote economic development and thus, in turn, promote growth for their region. ^ By examining six cities, three of which are in Santa Fe—Rosario, Santa Fe (capital) and Rafaela—and three in Guanajuato—Leon, Guanajuato (capital) and San Miguel de Allende, this dissertation provides a better understanding of public finances and tax collection efforts of local governments in Latin America. Specific attention is paid to each city's budget authority to raise new revenue and efforts to promote economic development. The research also includes a large statistical dataset of Mexico's 2,454 municipalities and a regression analysis that evaluates local tax efforts on economic growth, controlling for population, territorial size, and the professional development. In order to generalize these results, the research tests these discoveries by using statistical data gathered from a survey administered to Latin American municipal officials. ^ The dissertation demonstrates that cities, which experience greater fiscal autonomy measured by the collection of more own-source revenue, are better able to stimulate effective economic development programs, and ultimately, create jobs within their communities. The results are bolstered by a large number of interviews, which were conducted with over 100 finance specialists, municipal presidents, and local authorities. The dissertation also includes an in-depth literature review on fiscal federalism, decentralization, debt financing and local development. It concludes with a discussion of the findings of the study and applications for the practice of public administration.^

Immunocytes of the Atlantic bottlenose dolphin (Tursiops truncatus) and West Indian manatee (Trichechus manatus latirostris): Morphologic characterizations and correlations between healthy and disease states under free-ranging and captive conditions

Interest in the health of marine mammals has increased due, in part, to the attention given to human impact on the marine environment. Recent mass strandings of the Atlantic bottlenose dolphin (Tursiops truncatus) and rising mortalities of the endangered Florida manatee (Trichechus manatus latirostris) have raised questions on the extent to which pollution, infectious disease, "stress," and captivity influence the immune system of these animals. This study has provided the first in-depth characterization of immunocytes in the peripheral blood of dolphins (n = 190) and manatees (n = 56). Immunocyte morphology and baseline values were determined in clinically normal animals under free-ranging, stranded and captive living conditions as well as by age and sex. Additionally, immunocyte population dynamics were characterized in sick animals. This was accomplished with traditional cytochemical techniques and new lymphocyte phenotyping methodology which was validated in this study. Traditional cytochemical techniques demonstrated that blood immunocyte morphology and cell numbers are similar to terrestrial mammals with some notable exceptions. The manatee heterophilic granulocyte is a morphologically unique cell and probably functions similarly to the typical mammalian neutrophil. Eosinophils were rarely found in manatees but were uncommonly high in healthy and sick dolphins. Basophils were not identified. Manatees had higher total lymphocyte numbers compared to dolphins and most terrestrial mammals. Lymphocyte subsets identified in healthy animals included T$\rm\sb{h}$, T$\rm\sb{c/s}$, B and NK cells. Dolphin and manatee T and B cell values were higher than those reported in man and most terrestrial mammals. The manatee has extraordinarily high absolute numbers of circulating T$\rm\sb{h}$ cells which suggests an enhanced immunological response capability. With few exceptions, immunocyte types and absolute numbers were not significantly different between free-ranging, stranded and captive categories or between sex and age categories. The evaluation of immunocyte dynamics in various disease states demonstrated a wide variation in cellular responses which provided new insights into innate, humoral and cell-mediated immunity in these species. Additionally, this study demonstrated that lymphocyte phenotyping has diagnostic significance and could be developed into a potential indicator of immunocompetence in both free-ranging and captive dolphin and manatee populations.

The Military-Industrial Complex and US Military Spending After 9/11

This article examines the economic, political and institutional power of the military-industrial complex (MIC) by examining its influence on military spending before and after the events of 9/11. The reasons for the continuity of MIC influence in US foreign policy is explored. This includes the role of military contractors in financing policy planning organizations, the relationship between military contractors and the Defense Department, and the centralization of executive branch authority in foreign policy decision-making, especially during critical junctures or foreign policy crises.

Immunocytes of the Atlantic bottlenose dolphin (Tursiops truncatus) and West Indian manatee (Trichechus manatus latirostris) : morphologic characterizations and correlations between healthy and disease states under free-ranging and captive conditions

Interest in the health of marine mammals has increased due, in part, to the attention given to human impact on the marine environment. Recent mass strandings of the Atlantic bottlenose dolphin (Tursiops truncatus) and rising mortalities of the endangered Florida manatee (Trichechus manatus latirostris) have raised questions on the extent to which pollution, infectious disease, "stress," and captivity influence the immune system of these animals. This study has provided the first in-depth characterization of immunocytes in the peripheral blood of dolphins (n=180) and manatees (n=56). Immunocyte morphology and baseline values were determined in clinically normal animals under free-ranging, stranded and captive living conditions as well as by age and sex. Additionally, immuocyte population dynamics were characterized in sick animals. This was accomplished with traditional cytochemical techniques and new lymphocyte phenotyping methodology which was validated in this study. Traditional cytochemical techniques demonstrated that blood immunocyte morphology and cell numbers are similar to terrestrial mammals with some notable exceptions. The manatee heterophilic granulocyte is a morphologically unique cell and probably functions similarly to the typical mammalian neutrophil. Eosinophils were rarely found in manatees but were uncommonly high in healthy and sick dolphins. Basophils were not identified. Manatees had higher total lymphocyte numbers compared to dolphins and most terrestrial mammals. Lymphocyte subsets identified in healthy animals included Th, Tes, B and NK cells. Dolphin and manatee T and B cell values were higher than those reported in man and most terrestrial mammals. The manatee has extraordinarily high absolute numbers of circulating Th cells which suggests an enhanced immunological response capability. With few exceptions, immunocyte types and absolute numbers were not significantly different between free-ranging, stranded and captive categories or between sex and age categories. The evaluation of immunocyte dynamics in various disease states demonstrated a wide variation in cellular responses which provided new insights into innate, humoral and cell-mediated immunity in these species. Additionally, this study demonstrated that lymphocyte phenotyping has diagnostic significance and could be developed into a potential indicator of immunocompetence in both free-ranging and captive dolphin and manatee populations.

Money Market Funds in the EU and US, Regulations and Practice

This is the first comprehensive analysis of the regulation of money market funds in the EU and US at both the theoretical and practical levels.  Its unique mutli-disciplinary approach provides a rigorous framework for comparative analysis and expert opinions on complex regulations that will help practitioners with decisions on portfolio management and in solving regulatory compliance issues. The theoretical framework has unique cases and examples and includes checklists to assist with the practice of fund management and legal risk analysis.

Summary and Risks of ABS Transactions Under EU and US Law

This chapter examines the legal concept of summary in terms of its potential legal liability and other types of risks under EU and US disclosure laws.

Disclosures Of ABS Transaction Structure Under EU And US Law

This chapter examines the legal concept of transaction structures under EU and US law for asset-backed securities

Supplement to employment, hours, and earnings, states and areas, data for ... /

"Establishment survey data."

An interregional input-output analysis of the pollution content of trade flows and environmental trade balances between five states in the US Mid-West

In this paper we attempt an empirical application of the multi-region input-output (MRIO) method in order to enumerate the pollution content of interregional trade flows between five Mid-West regions/states in the US –Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Michigan and Wisconsin – and the rest of the US. This allows us to analyse some very important issues in terms of the nature and significance of interregional environmental spillovers within the US Mid-West and the existence of pollution ‘trade balances’ between states. Our results raise questions in terms of the extent to which authorities at State level can control local emissions where they are limited in the way some emissions can be controlled, particularly with respect to changes in demand elsewhere in the Mid-West and US. This implies a need for policy co-ordination between national and state level authorities in the US to meet emissions reductions targets. The existence of an environmental trade balances between states also raises issues in terms of net losses/gains in terms of pollutants as a result of interregional trade within the US and whether, if certain activities can be carried out using less polluting technology in one region relative to others, it is better for the US as a whole if this type of relationship exists.

US Monetary and Fiscal Policies - Conflict or Cooperation?

Most of the literature estimating DSGE models for monetary policy analysis ignores fiscal policy and assumes that monetary policy follows a simple rule. In this paper we allow both fiscal and monetary policy to be described by rules and/or optimal policy which are subject to switches over time. We find that US monetary and fiscal policy have often been in conflict, and that it is relatively rare that we observe the benign policy combination of an conservative monetary policy paired with a debt stabilizing fiscal policy. In a series of counterfactuals, a conservative central bank following a time-consistent fiscal policy leader would come close to mimicking the cooperative Ramsey policy. However, if policy makers cannot credibly commit to such a regime, monetary accommodation of the prevailing fiscal regime may actually be welfare improving.