The ASSET intercomparison of ozone analyses: method and first results

This paper aims to summarise the current performance of ozone data assimilation (DA) systems, to show where they can be improved, and to quantify their errors. It examines 11 sets of ozone analyses from 7 different DA systems. Two are numerical weather prediction (NWP) systems based on general circulation models (GCMs); the other five use chemistry transport models (CTMs). The systems examined contain either linearised or detailed ozone chemistry, or no chemistry at all. In most analyses, MIPAS (Michelson Interferometer for Passive Atmospheric Sounding) ozone data are assimilated; two assimilate SCIAMACHY (Scanning Imaging Absorption Spectrometer for Atmospheric Chartography) observations instead. Analyses are compared to independent ozone observations covering the troposphere, stratosphere and lower mesosphere during the period July to November 2003. Biases and standard deviations are largest, and show the largest divergence between systems, in the troposphere, in the upper-troposphere/lower-stratosphere, in the upper-stratosphere and mesosphere, and the Antarctic ozone hole region. However, in any particular area, apart from the troposphere, at least one system can be found that agrees well with independent data. In general, none of the differences can be linked to the assimilation technique (Kalman filter, three or four dimensional variational methods, direct inversion) or the system (CTM or NWP system). Where results diverge, a main explanation is the way ozone is modelled. It is important to correctly model transport at the tropical tropopause, to avoid positive biases and excessive structure in the ozone field. In the southern hemisphere ozone hole, only the analyses which correctly model heterogeneous ozone depletion are able to reproduce the near-complete ozone destruction over the pole. In the upper-stratosphere and mesosphere (above 5 hPa), some ozone photochemistry schemes caused large but easily remedied biases. The diurnal cycle of ozone in the mesosphere is not captured, except by the one system that includes a detailed treatment of mesospheric chemistry. These results indicate that when good observations are available for assimilation, the first priority for improving ozone DA systems is to improve the models. The analyses benefit strongly from the good quality of the MIPAS ozone observations. Using the analyses as a transfer standard, it is seen that MIPAS is similar to 5% higher than HALOE (Halogen Occultation Experiment) in the mid and upper stratosphere and mesosphere (above 30 hPa), and of order 10% higher than ozonesonde and HALOE in the lower stratosphere (100 hPa to 30 hPa). Analyses based on SCIAMACHY total column are almost as good as the MIPAS analyses; analyses based on SCIAMACHY limb profiles are worse in some areas, due to problems in the SCIAMACHY retrievals.

The 'direct costs' of livestock disease: The development of a system of models for the analysis of 30 endemic livestock diseases in Great Britain

The 'direct costs' attributable to 30 different endemic diseases of farm animals in Great Britain are estimated using a standardised method to construct a simple model for each disease that includes consideration of disease prevention and treatment costs. The models so far developed provide a basis for further analyses including cost-benefit analyses for the economic assessment of disease control options. The approach used reflects the inherent livestock disease information constraints, which limit the application of other economic analytical methods. It is a practical and transparent approach that is relatively easily communicated to veterinary scientists and policy makers. The next step is to develop the approach by incorporating wider economic considerations into the analyses in a way that will demonstrate to policy makers and others the importance of an economic perspective to livestock disease issues.

Developing a method to characterize indoor environmental parameters in naturally ventilated classrooms

Until recently, there has been little investigation concerning the poor indoor air quality (IAQ) in classrooms. Despite the evidence that the educational building systems in many of the UK institutions have significant defects that may degrade IAQ, systematic assessments of IAQ measurements has been rarely undertaken. When undertaking IAQ measurement, there is a difficult task of representing and characterizing the environment parameters. Although technologies exist to measure these parameters, direct measurements especially in a naturally ventilated spaces are often difficult. This paper presents a methodology for developing a method to characterize indoor environment flow parameters as well as the Carbon Dioxide (CO2) concentrations. Thus, CO2 concentration level can be influenced by the differences in the selection of sampling points and heights. However, because this research focuses on natural ventilation in classrooms, air exchange is provided mainly by air infiltration. It is hoped that the methodology developed and evaluated in this research can effectively simplify the process of estimating the parameters for a systematic assessment of IAQ measurements in a naturally ventilated classrooms.

Is NHS Direct meeting the needs of mental health callers?

Background: NHS Direct is a new service that offers 24-hour advice from trained nurses. The National Service Framework for Mental Health and the National Strategy for Carers both mention NHS Direct as an important source of support for people with mental health problems. Aims: This paper reports findings from an evaluation of the Department of Health's NHS Direct mental health initiative. This initiative was established to ensure that NHS Direct can meet the needs of callers with mental health problems by offering additional training to all staff and improving the database of mental health services. Method: The findings reported here are based on routine computer data provided by 12 out of 17 NHS Direct sites, 552 data forms completed by nurse advisers from the 17 sites, and 111 questionnaires administered over the telephone with callers to the 17 sites. Results: Mental health calls accounted for 3% of NHS Direct's workload, although these calls were often longer and more complex than other calls. The majority of callers to the service were in touch with other services for their mental health problems (59%), typically their GP. Most callers had 'moderate' mental health problems, as indicated by the Global Assessment of Functioning Scale. Generally callers were satisfied with the service they received, although satisfaction was lower in some areas than previous studies of NHS Direct. Conclusions: Improvements could be made in the mechanisms for referring callers on to other services, and training to increase nurse advisers' knowledge of mental health problems.

A novel method for assessing risks to pollinators from plant protection products using honeybees as a model species

Pollination is one of the most important ecosystem services in agroecosystems and supports food production. Pollinators are potentially at risk being exposed to pesticides and the main route of exposure is direct contact, in some cases ingestion, of contaminated materials such as pollen, nectar, flowers and foliage. To date there are no suitable methods for predicting pesticide exposure for pollinators, therefore official procedures to assess pesticide risk are based on a Hazard Quotient. Here we develop a procedure to assess exposure and risk for pollinators based on the foraging behaviour of honeybees (Apis mellifera) and using this species as indicator representative of pollinating insects. The method was applied in 13 European field sites with different climatic, landscape and land use characteristics. The level of risk during the crop growing season was evaluated as a function of the active ingredients used and application regime. Risk levels were primarily determined by the agronomic practices employed (i.e. crop type, pest control method, pesticide use), and there was a clear temporal partitioning of risks through time. Generally the risk was higher in sites cultivated with permanent crops, such as vineyard and olive, than in annual crops, such as cereals and oil seed rape. The greatest level of risk is generally found at the beginning of the growing season for annual crops and later in June–July for permanent crops.

Direct Computation of Stochastic Flow in Reservoirs with Uncertain Parameters

A direct method is presented for determining the uncertainty in reservoir pressure, flow, and net present value (NPV) using the time-dependent, one phase, two- or three-dimensional equations of flow through a porous medium. The uncertainty in the solution is modelled as a probability distribution function and is computed from given statistical data for input parameters such as permeability. The method generates an expansion for the mean of the pressure about a deterministic solution to the system equations using a perturbation to the mean of the input parameters. Hierarchical equations that define approximations to the mean solution at each point and to the field covariance of the pressure are developed and solved numerically. The procedure is then used to find the statistics of the flow and the risked value of the field, defined by the NPV, for a given development scenario. This method involves only one (albeit complicated) solution of the equations and contrasts with the more usual Monte-Carlo approach where many such solutions are required. The procedure is applied easily to other physical systems modelled by linear or nonlinear partial differential equations with uncertain data.

Lighting energy saving due to the use of direct sunlight

This paper describe a simulation program, which uses Trengenza’s average room illuminance method in conjunction with hourly solar irradiance and luminous efficacy, to predict the potential lighting energy saving for a side-lit room. Two lighting control algorithms of photoelectric switching (on/off) and photoelectric dimming (top-up) have been coded in the program. A simulation for a typical UK office room has been conducted and the results show that energy saving due to the sunlight dependent on the various factors such as orientation, control methods, building depth, glazing area and shading types, etc. This simple tool can be used for estimating the potential lighting energy saving of the windows with various shading devices at the early design stage.

Acetone enhances the direct analysis of procyanidin- and prodelphinidin-based condensed tannins in lotus species by the butanol-HCl-iron assay

The butanol-HCl spectrophotometric assay is widely used for quantifying extractable and insoluble condensed tannins (CT, syn. proanthocyanidins) in foods, feeds, and foliage of herbaceous and woody plants, but the method underestimates total CT content when applied directly to plant material. To improve CT quantitation, we tested various cosolvents with butanol-HCl and found that acetone increased anthocyanidin yields from two forage Lotus species having contrasting procyanidin and prodelphinidin compositions. A butanol-HCl-iron assay run with 50% (v/v) acetone gave linear responses with Lotus CT standards and increased estimates of total CT in Lotus herbage and leaves by up to 3.2-fold over the conventional method run without acetone. The use of thiolysis to determine the purity of CT standards further improved quantitation. Gel-state 13C and 1H–13C HSQC NMR spectra of insoluble residues collected after butanol-HCl assays revealed that acetone increased anthocyanidin yields by facilitating complete solubilization of CT from tissue.

Satellite-based estimate of the direct and indirect aerosol climate forcing

The main uncertainty in anthropogenic forcing of the Earth’s climate stems from pollution aerosols, particularly their ‘‘indirect effect’’ whereby aerosols modify cloud properties. We develop a new methodology to derive a measurement-based estimate using almost exclusively information from an Earth radiation budget instrument (CERES) and a radiometer (MODIS). We derive a statistical relationship between planetary albedo and cloud properties, and, further, between the cloud properties and column aerosol concentration. Combining these relationships with a data set of satellite-derived anthropogenic aerosol fraction, we estimate an anthropogenic radiative forcing of �-0.9 ± 0.4 Wm�-2 for the aerosol direct effect and of �-0.2 ± 0.1 Wm�-2 for the cloud albedo effect. Because of uncertainties in both satellite data and the method, the uncertainty of this result is likely larger than the values given here which correspond only to the quantifiable error estimates. The results nevertheless indicate that current global climate models may overestimate the cloud albedo effect.

Indirect study of (11)B(p,alpha(0))(8)Be and (10)B(p,alpha)(7)Be reactions at astrophysical energies by means of the Trojan Horse Method: recent results

Nuclear (p,alpha) reactions destroying the so-called ""light-elements"" lithium, beryllium and boron have been largely studied in the past mainly because their role in understanding some astrophysical phenomena, i.e. mixing-phenomena occurring in young F-G stars [1]. Such mechanisms transport the surface material down to the region close to the nuclear destruction zone, where typical temperatures of the order of similar to 10(6) K are reached. The corresponding Gamow energy E(0)=1.22 (Z(x)(2)Z(X)(2)T(6)(2))(1/3) [2] is about similar to 10 keV if one considers the ""boron-case"" and replaces in the previous formula Z(x) = 1, Z(X) = 5 and T(6) = 5. Direct measurements of the two (11)B(p,alpha(0))(8)Be and (10)B(p,alpha)(7)Be reactions in correspondence of this energy region are difficult to perform mainly because the combined effects of Coulomb barrier penetrability and electron screening [3]. The indirect method of the Trojan Horse (THM) [4-6] allows one to extract the two-body reaction cross section of interest for astrophysics without the extrapolation-procedures. Due to the THM formalism, the extracted indirect data have to be normalized to the available direct ones at higher energies thus implying that the method is a complementary tool in solving some still open questions for both nuclear and astrophysical issues [7-12].

Trojan Horse Method: a useful tool for electron screening effect investigation

Direct measurements in the last decades have highlighted a new problem related to the lowering of the Coulomb barrier between the interacting nuclei due to the presence of the ""electron screening"" in the laboratory measurements. It was systematically observed that the presence of the electronic cloud around the interacting ions in measurements of nuclear reactions cross sections at astrophysical energies gives rise to an enhancement of the astrophysical S(E)-factor as lower and lower energies are explored [1]. Moreover, at present Such an effect is not well understood as the value of the potential for screening extracted from these measurements is higher than the tipper limit of theoretical predictions (adiabatic limit). On the other hand, the electron screening potential in laboratory measurement is different from that occurring in stellar plasmas thus the quantity of interest in astrophysics is the so-called ""bare nucleus cross section"". This quantity can only be extrapolated in direct measurements. These are the reasons that led to a considerable growth on interest in indirect measurement techniques and in particular the Trojan Horse Method (THM) [2,3]. Results concerning the bare nucleus cross sections measurements will be shown in several cases of astrophysical interest. In those cases the screening potential evaluated by means of the THM will be compared with the adiabatic limit and results arising from extrapolation in direct measurements.

Indirect Study of the (2)H(d,p)(3)H and (2)H(d,n)(3)He Reactions at Astrophysical Energies via the Trojan Horse Method

The (2)H(d,p)(3)H and (2)H(d,n)(3)He reactions have been indirectly studied by means of the Trojan Horse Method applied to the quasi-free (2)H((3)He, p(3)H)(1)H (2)H((3)He, n(3)He)(1)H reaction at 18 MeV of beam energy. This is the first experiment where the spectator (here (1)H) has been detected in coincidence with the charged participant, avoiding the limitations of standard neutron detectors. The d - d relative energy has been measured from 1.5 MeV down to 2 keV, at center of mass angles from 40A degrees to 170A degrees. Indirect angular distributions are compared with the direct behaviour in the overlapping regions.

Low-energy d plus d fusion reactions via the Trojan Horse Method

The bare nucleus S(E) factors for the (2)H(d, p)(3)H and (2)H(d.n)(3)He reactions have been measured for the first time via the Trojan Horse Method off the proton in (3)He from 1.5 MeV down to 2 key. This range overlaps with the relevant region for Standard Big Bang Nucleosynthesis as well as with the thermal energies of future fusion reactors and deuterium burning in the Pre-Main-Sequence phase of stellar evolution. This is the first pioneering experiment in quasi free regime where the charged spectator is detected. Both the energy dependence and the absolute value of the S(E) factors deviate by more than 15% from available direct data with new S(0) values of 57.4 +/- 1.8 MeVb for (3)H + p and 60.1 +/- 1.9 MeV b for (3)He + n. None of the existing fitting curves is able to provide the correct slope of the new data in the full range, thus calling for a revision of the theoretical description. This has consequences in the calculation of the reaction rates with more than a 25% increase at the temperatures of future fusion reactors. (C) 2011 Elsevier By. All rights reserved.

A Direct Numerov Sixth-order Numerical Scheme to Accurately Solve the Unidimensional Poisson Equation with Dirichlet Boundary Conditions

In this article, we present an analytical direct method, based on a Numerov three-point scheme, which is sixth order accurate and has a linear execution time on the grid dimension, to solve the discrete one-dimensional Poisson equation with Dirichlet boundary conditions. Our results should improve numerical codes used mainly in self-consistent calculations in solid state physics.

A powder X-ray diffraction method for detection of polyprenylated benzophenones in plant extracts associated with HPLC for quantitative analysis

A robust, direct, rapid and non-destructive X-ray diffraction crystallography method to detect the polyprenylated benzophenones 7-epi-clusianone (1) and guttiferone A (2) in extracts from Garcinia brasiliensis is presented. Powder samples of benzophenones 1 and 2, dried hexane extracts from G. brasiliensis seeds and fruit`s pericarp, and the dried ethanolic extract from G. brasiliensis seeds were unambiguously characterized by powder X-ray diffractometry. The calculated X-ray diffraction peaks from crystal structures of analytes 1 and 2, previously determined by single-crystal X-ray diffraction technique, were overlaid to those of the experimental powder diffractograms, providing a practical identification of these compounds in the analyzed material and confirming the pure contents of the powder samples. Using the X-ray diffraction crystallography method, the studied polyprenylated benzophenones were selectively and simultaneously detected in the extracts which were mounted directly on sample holder. In addition, reference materials of the analytes were not required for analyses since the crystal structures of the compounds are known. High performance liquid chromatography analyses also were comparatively carried out to quantify the analytes in the same plant extracts showing to be in agreement with X-ray diffraction crystallography method. (C) 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.