983 resultados para best linear unbiased predictor
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Objective: To determine intraocular pressure (IOP)-dependent and IOP-independent variables associated with visual field (VF) progression in treated glaucoma. Design: Retrospective cohort of the Glaucoma Progression Study. Methods: Consecutive, treated glaucoma patients with repeatable VF loss who had 8 or more VF examinations of either eye, using the Swedish Interactive Threshold Algorithm (24-2 SITA-Standard, Humphrey Field Analyzer II; Carl Zeiss Meditec, Inc, Dublin, California), during the period between January 1999 and September 2009 were included. Visual field progression was evaluated using automated pointwise linear regression. Evaluated data included age, sex, race, central corneal thickness, baseline VF mean deviation, mean follow-up IOP, peak IOP, IOP fluctuation, a detected disc hemorrhage, and presence of beta-zone parapapillary atrophy. Results: We selected 587 eyes of 587 patients (mean [SD] age, 64.9 [13.0] years). The mean (SD) number of VFs was 11.1 (3.0), spanning a mean (SD) of 6.4 (1.7) years. In the univariable model, older age (odds ratio [OR], 1.19 per decade; P = .01), baseline diagnosis of exfoliation syndrome (OR, 1.79; P = .01), decreased central corneal thickness (OR, 1.38 per 40 mu m thinner; P < .01), a detected disc hemorrhage (OR, 2.31; P < .01), presence of beta-zone parapapillary atrophy (OR, 2.17; P < .01), and all IOP parameters (mean follow-up, peak, and fluctuation; P < .01) were associated with increased risk of VF progression. In the multivariable model, peak IOP (OR, 1.13; P < .01), thinner central corneal thickness (OR, 1.45 per 40 mu m thinner; P < .01), a detected disc hemorrhage (OR, 2.59; P < .01), and presence of beta-zone parapapillary atrophy (OR, 2.38; P < .01) were associated with VF progression. Conclusions: IOP-dependent and IOP-independent risk factors affect disease progression in treated glaucoma. Peak IOP is a better predictor of progression than is IOP mean or fluctuation.
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Aim: To compare cervical length (CL) at 18-21 and 22-25 weeks` gestation in twin pregnancies in prediction of spontaneous preterm delivery and to examine cervical shortening. Methods: Retrospective cohort study of CL measured at 18-21 and 22-25 weeks` gestation in twin pregnancies. Results: Receiver operating characteristics (ROC) curve revealed area of 0.64 (95% CI 0.53-0.75) and 0.80 (95% CI 0.72-0.88) for measurements at 18-21 and 22-25 weeks, respectively (P <= 0.001). Sensitivities of 33.3% and 23% and negative predicting value (NPV) of 97.3% and 86.8% for delivery at <28 and <34 weeks gestation were reached for measurements at 18-21 weeks. Sensitivities of 71.4% and 38.2% and NPV of 99.1% and 91.4% for delivery at <28 and <34 weeks` gestation were reached for measurements at 22-25 weeks. Cervical length shortening analysis showed an area under ROC curve of 0.81 (95% CI 0.73-0.89) and best cut-off was at >= 2 mm/week. Sensitivities of 80% and 60.8% and NPV of 98.9% and 90.6% for delivery at <28 and <34 weeks gestation were reached. Conclusions: In twin gestations, assessment of CL at 22-25 weeks is better than assessment at 18-21 weeks to predict preterm delivery before 34 weeks. Cervical shortening at a rate of >= 2 mm/weeks between 18 and 25 weeks gestation was a good predictor of spontaneous preterm birth in this high-risk population.
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Objective: To determine whether there is an association between endometrial expression of leukemia inhibitory factor (LIF) in the luteal phase of the menstrual cycle preceding in vitro fertilization (IVF) and treatment outcome. Methods: Biopsy specimens from the endometria of 52 women in the luteal. phase were immunostained against LIF Embryo culture and transfer were done according to standard procedures. Results: Clinical pregnancy occurred in 39% of the women following IVF, and strong endometrial immunohistochemical staining for LIF was associated with pregnancy (P=0.01). The women with a strong LIF expression had a 6.4-fold higher chance of becoming pregnant than those with weaker intensities (P=0.005). Conclusion: Endometrial expression of LIF during the luteal phase can be used as a predictor of IVF success. (C) 2008 International Federation of Gynecology and Obstetrics. Published by Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.
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Background: People with less education in Europe, Asia, and the United States are at higher risk of mortality associated with daily and longer-term air pollution exposure. We examined whether educational level modified associations between mortality and ambient particulate pollution (PM(10)) in Latin America, using several timescales. Methods: The study population included people who died during 1998-2002 in Mexico City, Mexico; Santiago, Chile; and Sao Paulo, Brazil. We fit city-specific robust Poisson regressions to daily deaths for nonexternal-cause mortality, and then stratified by age, sex, and educational attainment among adults older than age 21 years (none, some primary, some secondary, and high school degree or more). Predictor variables included a natural spline for temporal trend, linear PM(10) and apparent temperature at matching lags, and day-of-week indicators. We evaluated PM(10) for lags 0 and I day, and fit an unconstrained distributed lag model for cumulative 6-day effects. Results: The effects of a 10-mu g/m(3) increment in lag 1 PM(10) on all nonextemal-cause adult mortality were for Mexico City 0.39% (95% confidence interval = 0.131/-0.65%); Sao Paulo 1.04% (0.71%-1.38%); and for Santiago 0.61% (0.40%-0.83%. We found cumulative 6-day effects for adult mortality in Santiago (0.86% [0.48%-1.23%]) and Sao Paulo (1.38% [0.85%-1.91%]), but no consistent gradients by educational status. Conclusions: PM(10) had important short- and intermediate-term effects on mortality in these Latin American cities, but associations did not differ consistently by educational level.
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This study presents the results of Raman spectroscopy applied to the classification of arterial tissue based on a simplified model using basal morphological and biochemical information extracted from the Raman spectra of arteries. The Raman spectrograph uses an 830-nm diode laser, imaging spectrograph, and a CCD camera. A total of 111 Raman spectra from arterial fragments were used to develop the model, and those spectra were compared to the spectra of collagen, fat cells, smooth muscle cells, calcification, and cholesterol in a linear fit model. Non-atherosclerotic (NA), fatty and fibrous-fatty atherosclerotic plaques (A) and calcified (C) arteries exhibited different spectral signatures related to different morphological structures presented in each tissue type. Discriminant analysis based on Mahalanobis distance was employed to classify the tissue type with respect to the relative intensity of each compound. This model was subsequently tested prospectively in a set of 55 spectra. The simplified diagnostic model showed that cholesterol, collagen, and adipocytes were the tissue constituents that gave the best classification capability and that those changes were correlated to histopathology. The simplified model, using spectra obtained from a few tissue morphological and biochemical constituents, showed feasibility by using a small amount of variables, easily extracted from gross samples.
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Purpose: Several attempts to determine the transit time of a high dose rate (HDR) brachytherapy unit have been reported in the literature with controversial results. The determination of the source speed is necessary to accurately calculate the transient dose in brachytherapy treatments. In these studies, only the average speed of the source was measured as a parameter for transit dose calculation, which does not account for the realistic movement of the source, and is therefore inaccurate for numerical simulations. The purpose of this work is to report the implementation and technical design of an optical fiber based detector to directly measure the instantaneous speed profile of a (192)Ir source in a Nucletron HDR brachytherapy unit. Methods: To accomplish this task, we have developed a setup that uses the Cerenkov light induced in optical fibers as a detection signal for the radiation source moving inside the HDR catheter. As the (192)Ir source travels between two optical fibers with known distance, the threshold of the induced signals are used to extract the transit time and thus the velocity. The high resolution of the detector enables the measurement of the transit time at short separation distance of the fibers, providing the instantaneous speed. Results: Accurate and high resolution speed profiles of the 192Ir radiation source traveling from the safe to the end of the catheter and between dwell positions are presented. The maximum and minimum velocities of the source were found to be 52.0 +/- 1.0 and 17.3 +/- 1:2 cm/s. The authors demonstrate that the radiation source follows a uniformly accelerated linear motion with acceleration of vertical bar a vertical bar = 113 cm/s(2). In addition, the authors compare the average speed measured using the optical fiber detector to those obtained in the literature, showing deviation up to 265%. Conclusions: To the best of the authors` knowledge, the authors directly measured for the first time the instantaneous speed profile of a radiation source in a HDR brachytherapy unit traveling from the unit safe to the end of the catheter and between interdwell distances. The method is feasible and accurate to implement on quality assurance tests and provides a unique database for efficient computational simulations of the transient dose. (C) 2010 American Association of Physicists in Medicine. [DOI: 10.1118/1.3483780]
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OBJECTIVES We sought to assess the prognostic value and risk classification improvement using contemporary single-photon emission computed tomography myocardial perfusion imaging (SPECT-MPI) to predict all-cause mortality. BACKGROUND Myocardial perfusion is a strong estimator of prognosis. Evidence published to date has not established the added prognostic value of SPECT-MPI nor defined an approach to detect improve classification of risk in women from a developing nation. METHODS A total of 2,225 women referred for SPECT-MPI were followed by a mean period of 3.7 +/- 1.4 years. SPECT-MPI results were classified as abnormal on the presence of any perfusion defect. Abnormal scans were further classified as with mild/moderate reversible, severe reversible, partial reversible, or fixed perfusion defects. Risk estimates for incident mortality were categorized as <1%/year, 1% to 2%/year, and >2%/year using Cox proportional hazard models. Risk-adjusted models incorporated clinical risk factors, left ventricular ejection fraction (LVEF), and perfusion variables. RESULTS All-cause death occurred in 139 patients. SPECT-MPI significantly risk stratified the population; patients with abnormal scans had significantly higher death rates compared with patients with normal scans, 13.1% versus 4.0%, respectively (p < 0.001). Cox analysis demonstrated that after adjusting for clinical risk factors and LVEF, SPECT-MPI improved the model discrimination (integrated discrimination index = 0.009; p = 0.02), added significant incremental prognostic information (global chi-square increased from 87.7 to 127.1; p < 0.0001), and improved risk prediction (net reclassification improvement = 0.12; p = 0.005). CONCLUSIONS SPECT-MPI added significant incremental prognostic information to clinical and left ventricular functional variables while enhancing the ability to classify this Brazilian female population into low-and high-risk categories of all-cause mortality. (J Am Coll Cardiol Img 2011;4:880-8) (C) 2011 by the American College of Cardiology Foundation
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Background: At least for a subset of patients, the clinical diagnosis of mild cognitive impairment (MCI) may represent an intermediate stage between normal aging and dementia. Nevertheless, the patterns of transition of cognitive states between normal cognitive aging and MCI to dementia are not well established. In this study we address the pattern of transitions between cognitive states in patients with MCI and healthy controls, prior to the conversion to dementia. Methods: 139 subjects (78% women, mean age, 68.5 +/- 6.1 years; mean educational level, 11.7 +/- 5.4 years) were consecutively assessed in a memory clinic with a standardized clinical and neuropsychological protocol, and classified as cognitively healthy (normal controls) or with MCI (including subtypes) at baseline. These subjects underwent annual reassessments (mean duration of follow-up: 2.7 +/- 1.1 years), in which cognitive state was ascertained independently of prior diagnoses. The pattern of transitions of the cognitive state was determined by Markov chain analysis. Results: The transitions from one cognitive state to another varied substantially between MCI subtypes. Single-domain MCI (amnestic and non-amnestic) more frequently returned to normal cognitive state upon follow-up (22.5% and 21%, respectively). Among subjects who progressed to Alzheimer`s disease (AD), the most common diagnosis immediately prior conversion was multiple-domain MCI (85%). Conclusion: The clinical diagnosis of MCI and its subtypes yields groups of patients with heterogeneous patterns of transitions between one given cognitive state to another. The presence of more severe and widespread cognitive deficits, as indicated by the group of multiple-domain amnestic MCI may be a better predictor of AD than single-domain amnestic or non-amnestic deficits. These higher-risk individuals could probably be the best candidates for the development of preventive strategies and early treatment for the disease.
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Background/purpose: The introduction of the piggyback technique for reconstruction of the liver outflow in reduced-size liver transplants for pediatric patients has increased the incidence of hepatic venous outflow block (HVOB). Here, we proposed a new technique for hepatic venous reconstruction in pediatric living-donor liver transplantation. Methods: Three techniques were used: direct anastomosis of the orifice of the donor hepatic veins and the orifice of the recipient hepatic veins (group 1); triangular anastomosis after creating a wide triangular orifice in the recipient inferior vena cava at the confluence of all the hepatic veins (group 2); and a new technique, which is a wide longitudinal anastomosis performed at the anterior wall of the inferior vena cava (group 3). Results: In groups 1 and 2, the incidences of HVOB were 27.7% and 5.7%, respectively. In group 3, no patient presented HVOB (P = .001). No difference was noted between groups 2 and 3. Conclusions: Hepatic venous reconstruction in pediatric living-donor liver transplantation must be preferentially performed by using a wide longitudinal incision at the anterior wall of the recipient inferior vena cava. As an alternative technique, triangulation of the recipient inferior vena cava, including the orifices of the 3 hepatic veins, may be used. Published by Elsevier Inc.
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BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE: Several morphometric MR imaging studies have investigated age- and sex-related cerebral volume changes in healthy human brains, most often by using samples spanning several decades of life and linear correlation methods. This study aimed to map the normal pattern of regional age-related volumetric reductions specifically in the elderly population. MATERIALS AND METHODS: One hundred thirty-two eligible individuals (67-75 years of age) were selected from a community-based sample recruited for the Sao Paulo Ageing and Health (SPAH) study, and a cross-sectional MR imaging investigation was performed concurrently with the second SPAH wave. We used voxel-based morphometry (VBM) to conduct a voxelwise search for significant linear correlations between gray matter (GM) volumes and age. In addition, region-of-interest masks were used to investigate whether the relationship between regional GM (rGM) volumes and age would be best predicted by a nonlinear model. RESULTS: VBM and region-of-interest analyses revealed selective foci of accelerated rGM loss exclusively in men, involving the temporal neocortex, prefrontal cortex, and medial temporal region. The only structure in which GM volumetric changes were best predicted by a nonlinear model was the left parahippocampal gyrus. CONCLUSIONS: The variable patterns of age-related GM loss across separate neocortical and temporolimbic regions highlight the complexity of degenerative processes that affect the healthy human brain across the life span. The detection of age-related Ill GM decrease in men supports the view that atrophy in such regions should be seen as compatible with normal aging.
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Introduction: Hyaluronidases (HAases) are enzymes related to cancer progression. Isoforms of HAases have been described as products of alternative splicing responsible for differences in enzyme activity. The heterogeneity of HAase expression has been identified in tumors and could be related to the differences in their biological behavior. Methods: Thirty-seven patients subjected to radical prostatectomy for prostate cancer were divided into 2 groups for the analyses: Low (<= 6-18) and high (>= 7-19) Gleason score and tumor behavior; recurrence 15 and nonrecurrence 22, mean follow-up 52.6 months. Conclusion: A profile of HAase related to low Gleason score and non-tumor recurrence was characterized by expression of HYAL3-v1, HYAL1-v3, and HYAL3-v2. More studies should be made in order to confirm with larger series. (C) 2009 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.
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We have examined MC1R variant allele frequencies in the general population of South East Queensland and in a collection of adolescent dizygotic and monozygotic twins and family members to define statistical associations with hair and skin color, freckling, and mole count. Results of these studies are consistent with a linear recessive allelic model with multiplicative penetrance in the inheritance of red hair. Four alleles, D84E, R151C, R160W, and D294H, are strongly associated with red hair and fair skin with multinomial regression analysis showing odds ratios of 63, 118, 50, and 94, respectively. An additional three low-penetrance alleles V60L, V92M, and R163Q have odds ratios 6, 5, and 2 relative to the wild-type allele. To address the cellular effects of MC1R variant alleles in signal transduction, we expressed these receptors in permanently transfected HEK293 cells. Measurement of receptor activity via induction of a cAMP-responsive luciferase reporter gene found that the R151C and R160W receptors were active in the presence of NDP-MSH ligand, but at much reduced levels compared with that seen with the wild-type receptor. The ability to stimulate phosphorylation of the cAMP response element binding protein (CREB) transcription factor was also apparent in all stimulated MC1R variant allele-expressing HEK293 cell extracts as assessed by immunoblotting. In contrast, human melanoma cell lines showed wide variation in the their ability to undergo cAMP-mediated CREB phosphorylation. Culture of human melanocytes of known MC1R genotype may provide the best experimental approach to examine the functional consequences for each MC1R variant allele. With this objective, we have established more than 300 melanocyte cell strains of defined MC1R genotype.
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To obtain a high quality EMG acquisition, the signal must be recorded as far away as possible from muscle innervations and tendon zones, which are known to shift during dynamic contractions. This study describes a methodology, using commercial bipolar electrodes, to identify better electrode positions for superficial EMG of lower limb muscles during dynamic contractions. Eight female volunteers participated in this study. Myoelectric signals of the vastus lateralis, gastrocnemius medialis, peroneus longus and tibialis anterior muscles were acquired during maximum isometric contractions using bipolar electrodes. The electrode positions of each muscle were selected assessing SENIAM and then, other positions were located along the length of muscle up and down the SENIAM site. The raw signal (density), the linear envelopes, the RMS value, the motor point site, the position of the IZ and its shift during dynamic contractions were taken into account to select and compare electrode positions. For vastus lateralis and peroneus longus, the best sites were 66% and 25% of muscle length, respectively (similar to SENIAM location). The position of the tibialis anterior electrodes presented the best signal at 47.5% of its length (different from SENIAM location). The position of the gastrocnemius medialis electrodes was at 38% of its length and SENIAM does not specify a precise location for signal acquisition. The proposed method should be considered as another methodological step in every EMG study to guarantee the quality of the signal and subsequent human movement interpretations. (C) 2009 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
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Objective: To develop a model to predict the bleeding source and identify the cohort amongst patients with acute gastrointestinal bleeding (GIB) who require urgent intervention, including endoscopy. Patients with acute GIB, an unpredictable event, are most commonly evaluated and managed by non-gastroenterologists. Rapid and consistently reliable risk stratification of patients with acute GIB for urgent endoscopy may potentially improve outcomes amongst such patients by targeting scarce health-care resources to those who need it the most. Design and methods: Using ICD-9 codes for acute GIB, 189 patients with acute GIB and all. available data variables required to develop and test models were identified from a hospital medical records database. Data on 122 patients was utilized for development of the model and on 67 patients utilized to perform comparative analysis of the models. Clinical data such as presenting signs and symptoms, demographic data, presence of co-morbidities, laboratory data and corresponding endoscopic diagnosis and outcomes were collected. Clinical data and endoscopic diagnosis collected for each patient was utilized to retrospectively ascertain optimal management for each patient. Clinical presentations and corresponding treatment was utilized as training examples. Eight mathematical models including artificial neural network (ANN), support vector machine (SVM), k-nearest neighbor, linear discriminant analysis (LDA), shrunken centroid (SC), random forest (RF), logistic regression, and boosting were trained and tested. The performance of these models was compared using standard statistical analysis and ROC curves. Results: Overall the random forest model best predicted the source, need for resuscitation, and disposition with accuracies of approximately 80% or higher (accuracy for endoscopy was greater than 75%). The area under ROC curve for RF was greater than 0.85, indicating excellent performance by the random forest model Conclusion: While most mathematical models are effective as a decision support system for evaluation and management of patients with acute GIB, in our testing, the RF model consistently demonstrated the best performance. Amongst patients presenting with acute GIB, mathematical models may facilitate the identification of the source of GIB, need for intervention and allow optimization of care and healthcare resource allocation; these however require further validation. (c) 2007 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.