A correlation sensitivity analysis of non-life underwriting risk in solvency capital requirement estimation

This paper analyses the impact of using different correlation assumptions between lines of business when estimating the risk-based capital reserve, the Solvency Capital Requirement (SCR), under Solvency II regulations. A case study is presented and the SCR is calculated according to the Standard Model approach. Alternatively, the requirement is then calculated using an Internal Model based on a Monte Carlo simulation of the net underwriting result at a one-year horizon, with copulas being used to model the dependence between lines of business. To address the impact of these model assumptions on the SCR we conduct a sensitivity analysis. We examine changes in the correlation matrix between lines of business and address the choice of copulas. Drawing on aggregate historical data from the Spanish non-life insurance market between 2000 and 2009, we conclude that modifications of the correlation and dependence assumptions have a significant impact on SCR estimation.

How to use the standard model with own data?

In this work discuss the use of the standard model for the calculation of the solvency capital requirement (SCR) when the company aims to use the specific parameters of the model on the basis of the experience of its portfolio. In particular, this analysis focuses on the formula presented in the latest quantitative impact study (2010 CEIOPS) for non-life underwriting premium and reserve risk. One of the keys of the standard model for premium and reserves risk is the correlation matrix between lines of business. In this work we present how the correlation matrix between lines of business could be estimated from a quantitative perspective, as well as the possibility of using a credibility model for the estimation of the matrix of correlation between lines of business that merge qualitative and quantitative perspective.

ALK rearrangement in a selected population of advanced non small cell lung cancer patients. FISH and inmunohistochemistry diagnostic methods, prevalence and clinical outcomes

Anaplastic lymphoma kinase (ALK) rearrangements represents a new driver oncogenic event in non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC). ALK positive patients account for a 1-7% of NSCLC patients. The objective of this study is to know the prevalence and clinical characteristics of ALK positive patients in a cohort of NSCLC patients and to compare inmunohistochemistry with D5F3 monoclonal antibody with gold standard method fluorescence in situ hybridation

Non-tuberculous mycobacteria I: one year clinical isolates identification in Tertiary Hospital Aids Reference Center, Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, in pre highly active antiretroviral therapy era

The aim of this study was to determine the prevalence of non-tuberculous mycobacteria (NTM) isolates at University Hospital, Reference Center for Aids in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, during one year. We used standard biochemical tests for species identification and IS1245 PCR amplification was applied as a Mycobacterium avium specific identification marker. Four hundred and four specimens from 233 patients yielded acid-fast bacilli growth. M. tuberculosis was identified in 85% of the patients and NTM in 15%. NTM disseminated infection was a common event correlated with human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) infected patients and only in HIV negative patients the source of NTM was non sterile site. M. avium complex (MAC) was biochemically identified in 57.8% (49/83) of NTM isolates, most of them from sterile sites (75.5%), and in 94% (46/49) the IS 1245 marker specific for M. avium was present. Twenty NTM strains showed a MAC biochemical pattern with the exception of a urease-positive (99% of MAC are urease-negative), however IS1245 was detected in 96% of the strains leading to their identification as M. avium. In this group differences in NTM source was not significant. The second most frequently isolated NTM was identified as M. scrofulaceum (7.2%), followed by M. terrae (3.6%), M. gordonae (2.4%), M. chelonae (1.2%), M. fortuitum (1.2%) and one strain which could not be identified. All were IS1245 negative except for one strain identified as M. scrofulaceum. It is interesting to note that non-sterile sites were the major source of these isolates (92.8%). Our finding indicated that M. avium is still the major atypical species among in the MAC isolates recovered from Brazilian Aids patients without highty active antiretroviral therapy schema. Some discrepancies were seen between the identification methods and further investigations must be done to better characterize NTM isolates using other phenotypic and genotypic methods.

Non-invasive detection of cocaine dissolved in wine bottles by (1) H magnetic resonance spectroscopy.

Recently, a number of cases of smuggling dissolved cocaine in wine bottles have been reported. The aim of the present study was to determine whether cocaine dissolved in wine can be detected by proton magnetic resonance spectroscopy ((1) H MRS) on a standard clinical MR scanner, in intact (i.e. unopened) wine bottles. (1) H MRS experiments were performed with a 3 Tesla clinical scanner on wine phantoms with or without cocaine contamination. The aromatic protons of cocaine displayed resonance peaks in the 7-8 ppm region of the spectrum, where no overlapping resonances of wine were present. Additional cocaine resonances were detected in the 2-3 ppm region of the spectrum, between the resonances of ethanol and other wine constituents. Detection of cocaine in wine (at 5 mM, i.e. ∼1.5 g/L) was feasible in a scan time of 1 min. We conclude that dissolved cocaine can be detected in intact wine bottles, on a standard clinical MR scanner. Thus, (1) H MRS is the technique of choice to examine this type of suspicious cargo, since it allows for a non-destructive and rapid content characterization. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

BlastR--fast and accurate database searches for non-coding RNAs.

We present and validate BlastR, a method for efficiently and accurately searching non-coding RNAs. Our approach relies on the comparison of di-nucleotides using BlosumR, a new log-odd substitution matrix. In order to use BlosumR for comparison, we recoded RNA sequences into protein-like sequences. We then showed that BlosumR can be used along with the BlastP algorithm in order to search non-coding RNA sequences. Using Rfam as a gold standard, we benchmarked this approach and show BlastR to be more sensitive than BlastN. We also show that BlastR is both faster and more sensitive than BlastP used with a single nucleotide log-odd substitution matrix. BlastR, when used in combination with WU-BlastP, is about 5% more accurate than WU-BlastN and about 50 times slower. The approach shown here is equally effective when combined with the NCBI-Blast package. The software is an open source freeware available from www.tcoffee.org/blastr.html.

Performance of an ICU ventilator and two turbin-based ventilators dedicated to non invasive ventilation (NIV) in simulated high inspiratory effort and rate: a NIV-bench-study.

INTRODUCTION. The role of turbine-based NIV ventilators (TBV) versus ICU ventilators with NIV mode activated (ICUV) to deliver NIV in case of severe respiratory failure remains debated. OBJECTIVES. To compare the response time and pressurization capacity of TBV and ICUV during simulated NIV with normal and increased respiratory demand, in condition of normal and obstructive respiratory mechanics. METHODS. In a two-chamber lung model, a ventilator simulated normal (P0.1 = 2 mbar, respiratory rate RR = 15/min) or increased (P0.1 = 6 mbar, RR = 25/min) respiratory demand. NIV was simulated by connecting the lung model (compliance 100 ml/mbar; resistance 5 or 20 l/mbar) to a dummy head equipped with a naso-buccal mask. Connections allowed intentional leaks (29 ± 5 % of insufflated volume). Ventilators to test: Servo-i (Maquet), V60 and Vision (Philips Respironics) were connected via a standard circuit to the mask. Applied pressure support levels (PSL) were 7 mbar for normal and 14 mbar for increased demand. Airway pressure and flow were measured in the ventilator circuit and in the simulated airway. Ventilator performance was assessed by determining trigger delay (Td, ms), pressure time product at 300 ms (PTP300, mbar s) and inspiratory tidal volume (VT, ml) and compared by three-way ANOVA for the effect of inspiratory effort, resistance and the ventilator. Differences between ventilators for each condition were tested by oneway ANOVA and contrast (JMP 8.0.1, p\0.05). RESULTS. Inspiratory demand and resistance had a significant effect throughout all comparisons. Ventilator data figure in Table 1 (normal demand) and 2 (increased demand): (a) different from Servo-i, (b) different from V60.CONCLUSION. In this NIV bench study, with leaks, trigger delay was shorter for TBV with normal respiratory demand. By contrast, it was shorter for ICUV when respiratory demand was high. ICUV afforded better pressurization (PTP 300) with increased demand and PSL, particularly with increased resistance. TBV provided a higher inspiratory VT (i.e., downstream from the leaks) with normal demand, and a significantly (although minimally) lower VT with increased demand and PSL.

Onychomycosis insensitive to systemic terbinafine and azole treatments reveals non-dermatophyte moulds as infectious agents.

BACKGROUND: Dermatophytes are the main cause of onychomycoses, but various non-dermatophyte filamentous fungi are often isolated from abnormal nails. OBJECTIVE: Our aim was the in situ identification of the fungal infectious agent in 8 cases of onychomycoses which could not be cured after systemic terbinafine and itraconazole treatment. METHODS: Fungal DNA was extracted from nail samples, and infectious fungi were identified by restriction fragment length polymorphism (RFLP) of amplified fungal ribosomal DNA using a previously described PCR/RFLP assay. RESULTS: PCR/RFLP identification of fungi in nails allows the identification of the infectious agent: Fusarium sp., Acremonium sp. and Aspergillus sp. were found as a sole infectious agent in 5, 2 and 1 cases, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: Fusarium spp. and other non-dermatophyte filamentous fungi are especially difficult to cure in onychomycoses utilising standard treatment with terbinafine and itraconazole. PCR fungal identification helps demonstrate the presence of moulds in order to prescribe alternative antifungal treatments.

Influence of IL28B polymorphisms on response to a lower-than-standard dose peg-IFN-α 2a for genotype 3 chronic hepatitis C in HIV-coinfected patients.

BACKGROUND Data on which to base definitive recommendations on the doses and duration of therapy for genotype 3 HCV/HIV-coinfected patients are scarce. We evaluated the efficacy of a lower peginterferon-α 2a dose and a shorter duration of therapy than the current standard of care in genotype 3 HCV/HIV-coinfected patients. METHODS AND FINDINGS Pilot, open-label, single arm clinical trial which involved 58 Caucasian HCV/HIV-coinfected patients who received weekly 135 µg peginterferon-α 2a plus ribavirin 400 mg twice daily during 20 weeks after attaining undetectable viremia. The relationships between baseline patient-related variables, including IL28B genotype, plasma HCV-RNA, ribavirin dose/kg, peginterferon-α 2a and ribavirin levels with virological responses were analyzed. Only 4 patients showed lack of response and 5 patients dropped out due to adverse events related to the study medication. Overall, sustained virologic response (SVR) rates were 58.3% by intention-to-treat and 71.4% by per protocol analysis, respectively. Among patients with rapid virologic response (RVR), SVR and relapses rates were 92.6% and 7.4%, respectively. No relationships were observed between viral responses and ribavirin dose/kg, peginterferon-α 2a concentrations, ribavirin levels or rs129679860 genotype. CONCLUSIONS Weekly 135 µg pegIFN-α 2a could be as effective as the standard 180 µg dose, with a very low incidence of severe adverse events. A 24-week treatment duration appears to be appropriate in patients achieving RVR, but extending treatment up to just 20 weeks beyond negativization of viremia is associated with a high relapse rate in those patients not achieving RVR. There was no influence of IL28B genotype on the virological responses.

Epigenetic mechanisms in non-alcoholic fatty liver disease: An emerging field.

Non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) is an emerging health concern in both developed and non-developed world, encompassing from simple steatosis to non-alcoholic steatohepatitis (NASH), cirrhosis and liver cancer. Incidence and prevalence of this disease are increasing due to the socioeconomic transition and change to harmful diet. Currently, gold standard method in NAFLD diagnosis is liver biopsy, despite complications and lack of accuracy due to sampling error. Further, pathogenesis of NAFLD is not fully understood, but is well-known that obesity, diabetes and metabolic derangements played a major role in disease development and progression. Besides, gut microbioma and host genetic and epigenetic background could explain considerable interindividual variability. Knowledge that epigenetics, heritable events not caused by changes in DNA sequence, contribute to development of diseases has been a revolution in the last few years. Recently, evidences are accumulating revealing the important role of epigenetics in NAFLD pathogenesis and in NASH genesis. Histone modifications, changes in DNA methylation and aberrant profiles or microRNAs could boost development of NAFLD and transition into clinical relevant status. PNPLA3 genotype GG has been associated with a more progressive disease and epigenetics could modulate this effect. The impact of epigenetic on NAFLD progression could deserve further applications on therapeutic targets together with future non-invasive methods useful for the diagnosis and staging of NAFLD.

Une méthode simplifiée de mesure du volume atrial gauche sur les scanners de score calcique. Cardiovasculaire diagnostique et interventionnel. Séance Cardiovasculaire diagnostique et interventionnel. Séance ''L21 - Imagerie cardiaque non invasive''

Objectifs : Evaluer une méthode simple et rapide de mesure du volume atrial gauche. Matériels et méthodes : Cinquante patients ont été examinés avec un CT gaté pour mesure du score calcique. Trois méthodes ont été utilisées pour calculer le volume atrial gauche : 1) une méthode orthogonale avec mesure des surfaces/diamètres dans les plans axiaux/coronaux/sagittaux, 2) une méthode biplan inspirée de l'échocardiographie et 3) une méthode volumétrique. Les mesures ont été faites par le même observateur un mois plus tard et ont été répétées par trois autres observateurs. L'axe cardiaque a aussi été mesuré. La méthode Bland-Altmann et les corrélations de Spearman ont été utilisées. Résultats : La méthode volumétrique montre les variations intra/interobservateur les plus basses avec une variabilité de 6,1/7,4 ml, respectivement. Pour les mesures avec la méthode orthogonale (surfaces/diamètres), les variations intra/interobservateur sont 12,3/13,5 ml et 14,6/11,6 ml, respectivement. Pour la méthode biplan, les variations intra/interobservateur sont plus hautes : 23,9/19,8 ml. Comparée à la méthode de référence volumétrique, la méthode orthogonale avec les surfaces est mieux corrélée (R=0,959, p<0,001) que les autres méthodes. Il y a une faible influence de l'axe du coeur sur la méthode orthogonale avec les surfaces. Conclusion : La méthode volumétrique est le gold standard en terme de variabilité. Cependant elle est longue à metttre en oeuvre. La méthode orthogonale avec les surfaces est une alternative simple, sauf chez les patients obèses avec un coeur horizontalisé.

A mixed approach for proving non-inferiority in clinical trials with binary endpoints

When a new treatment is compared to an established one in a randomized clinical trial, it is standard practice to statistically test for non-inferiority rather than for superiority. When the endpoint is binary, one usually compares two treatments using either an odds-ratio or a difference of proportions. In this paper, we propose a mixed approach which uses both concepts. One first defines the non-inferiority margin using an odds-ratio and one ultimately proves non-inferiority statistically using a difference of proportions. The mixed approach is shown to be more powerful than the conventional odds-ratio approach when the efficacy of the established treatment is known (with good precision) and high (e.g. with more than 56% of success). The gain of power achieved may lead in turn to a substantial reduction in the sample size needed to prove non-inferiority. The mixed approach can be generalized to ordinal endpoints.

Occupational and non-occupational exposure of non-smokers to environmental tobacco smoke in Switzerland : preliminary results of an original campaig

A passive sampling device called Monitor of NICotine or "MoNIC", was constructed and evaluated by IST laboratory for determining nicotine in Environmental Tobacco Smoke (ETS). Vapour nicotine was passively collected on a potassium bisulfate treated glass fibre filter as collection medium. Analysis of amount of nicotine on the treated filter by gas chromatography equipped with Thermoionic-Specific Detector (GCTSD) after liquid-liquid extraction of 1mL of 5N NaOH : 1 mL of n-heptane saturated with NH3 using quinoline as internal standard. Based on nicotine amount of 0.2 mg/cigarette as reference, the inhaled Cigarette Equivalents (CE) by non-smokers can be calculated. Using the detected CE on the badge for nonsmokers, and comparing with amount of nicotine and cotinine level in saliva of both smokers and exposed non-smokers (N=49), we can confirm the use of the CE concept for estimating exposure to ETS. The Valais CIPRET (Center of information and prevention of the addiction to smoking), is going to organize a big campaign on the subject of the passive addiction to smoking entitled "Smoked passive, we suffer from it, we die from it ". This campaign will take place in 2007 and has for objective to inform clearly the population of Valais of the dangerousness of the passive smoke. More than 1'500 MoNIC badges were gracefully distributed to Swiss population to perform a self-monitoring of population exposure level to ETS, expressed in term of CE. Non-stimulated saliva were also collected to determine ETS biomarkers nicotine/cotinine levels of participating volunteers. Preliminary results of different levels of CE in occupational and non-occupational situations in relation with ETS were presented in this study.

Non-invasive and non-occlusive blood pressure estimation via a chest sensor.

The clinical demand for a device to monitor Blood Pressure (BP) in ambulatory scenarios with minimal use of inflation cuffs is increasing. Based on the so-called Pulse Wave Velocity (PWV) principle, this paper introduces and evaluates a novel concept of BP monitor that can be fully integrated within a chest sensor. After a preliminary calibration, the sensor provides non-occlusive beat-by-beat estimations of Mean Arterial Pressure (MAP) by measuring the Pulse Transit Time (PTT) of arterial pressure pulses travelling from the ascending aorta towards the subcutaneous vasculature of the chest. In a cohort of 15 healthy male subjects, a total of 462 simultaneous readings consisting of reference MAP and chest PTT were acquired. Each subject was recorded at three different days: D, D+3 and D+14. Overall, the implemented protocol induced MAP values to range from 80 ± 6 mmHg in baseline, to 107 ± 9 mmHg during isometric handgrip maneuvers. Agreement between reference and chest-sensor MAP values was tested by using intraclass correlation coefficient (ICC = 0.78) and Bland-Altman analysis (mean error = 0.7 mmHg, standard deviation = 5.1 mmHg). The cumulative percentage of MAP values provided by the chest sensor falling within a range of ±5 mmHg compared to reference MAP readings was of 70%, within ±10 mmHg was of 91%, and within ±15mmHg was of 98%. These results point at the fact that the chest sensor complies with the British Hypertension Society (BHS) requirements of Grade A BP monitors, when applied to MAP readings. Grade A performance was maintained even two weeks after having performed the initial subject-dependent calibration. In conclusion, this paper introduces a sensor and a calibration strategy to perform MAP measurements at the chest. The encouraging performance of the presented technique paves the way towards an ambulatory-compliant, continuous and non-occlusive BP monitoring system.

Respecte-t-on les bonnes pratiques de prescriptions des anti-inflammatoires non stéroïdiens en Suisse?

Introduction :¦Les anti-inflammatoires non stéroïdiens (AINS) sont une classe de médicaments fréquemment utilisée. Bien qu'ils soient utiles pour leurs propriétés analgésiques, antipyrétiques et anti-inflammatoires, ils sont à l'origine d'effets indésirables nombreux et potentiellement graves. Neuf recommandations de bonne pratique ont été établies en France en 1994 dans le but de limiter les prescriptions inutiles ou dangereuses. Nous avons examiné ces recommandations, pour savoir si elles sont encore pertinentes, et avons évalué leur suivi en Suisse.¦Méthode :¦La population étudiée consiste en 53 891 patients de plus de 16 ans, suivis en 2005 et 2006, qui ont eu au moins une fois la délivrance d'un AINS (voie non locale).¦Résultats :¦60% des prescriptions d'AINS excèdent 14 jours de traitement standard et 25% des renouvellements de traitement surviennent avant le nombre de jours correspondant à une prescription journalière standard. 2,7% des prescriptions contiennent deux ou plus d'AINS. Un tiers des prescriptions d'AINS sont associées à un protecteur gastrique dans les 3 mois. Cette proportion augmente avec les facteurs de risque des complications gastro-intestinales : l'âge, la prescription d'autres médicaments gastro-toxiques et la dose d'AINS prescrite. Toutefois, moins d'un patient sur deux de plus de 70 ans bénéficie d'un protecteur gastrique. Une prescription d'AINS sur mille concerne une femme au 3ème trimestre de grossesse. La prescription concomitante d'un médicament susceptible d'augmenter la fréquence des événements indésirables des AINS est fréquente : 25% d'anticoagulant ou anti-thrombotique, 30,5% d'inhibiteur de l'enzyme de conversion, diurétique ou antagoniste des récepteurs à l'angiotensine II, et 5,3% de corticothérapie. Ces proportions augmentent avec l'âge. La plupart des taux définis ci-dessus varient en fonction du canton de résidence, après ajustement sur le sexe et l'âge.¦Conclusion:¦Nos résultats suggèrent qu'en Suisse, les AINS sont fréquemment prescrits à doses trop élevées ou pendant une trop longue durée et souvent associés à d'autres médicaments susceptibles d'augmenter le risque d'effets secondaires, et ce particulièrement chez les sujets les plus âgés. La fréquence de prescriptions chez les femmes au 3ème trimestre de grossesse est inférieure à celles publiées ailleurs. Il est probable que les protecteurs gastriques soient sous-utilisés chez les personnes âgées. Les variations inter-cantonales suggèrent que certaines pratiques pourraient être améliorées