The impact of fasting on the interpretation of triglyceride levels for predicting myocardial infarction risk in HIV-positive individuals: the D:A:D study.

We assessed whether fasting modifies the prognostic value of these measurements for the risk of myocardial infarction (MI). Analyses used mixed effect models and Poisson regression. After confounders were controlled for, fasting triglyceride levels were, on average, 0.122 mmol/L lower than nonfasting levels. Each 2-fold increase in the latest triglyceride level was associated with a 38% increase in MI risk (relative rate, 1.38; 95% confidence interval, 1.26-1.51); fasting status did not modify this association. Our results suggest that it may not be necessary to restrict analyses to fasting measurements when considering MI risk.

Journalistic practice in risk and crisis situations: Significant examples from Spain

In a democratic society, the media are central to the communication of risks and uncertainties to the public. This article presents 10 proposals for improving media coverage in social risk situations. The article focuses on the production logic of the media and its consequences for society. The proposals and the conclusions of this research are supported by an analysis of three Spanish cases: the risk implied by the Tarragona chemical complex (one of the biggest in Europe); the terrorist attacks on 11 March 2004 in Madrid; and the Carmel tunnel disaster in Barcelona on January 2005. The authors are participating in a research project on public perception of risk funded by the Spanish Education Ministry on public perception of risk (2004–2007 and 2007–2010).

Reduced cardiorespiratory fitness, low physical activity and an urban environment are independently associated with increased cardiovascular risk in children.

AIMS/HYPOTHESIS: To assist in the development of preventive strategies, we studied whether the neighbourhood environment or modifiable behavioural parameters, including cardiorespiratory fitness (CRF) and physical activity (PA), are independently associated with obesity and metabolic risk markers in children. METHODS: We carried out a cross-sectional analysis of 502 randomly selected first and fifth grade urban and rural Swiss schoolchildren with regard to CRF, PA and the neighbourhood (rural vs urban) environment. Outcome measures included BMI, sum of four skinfold thicknesses, homeostasis model assessment of insulin resistance (HOMA-IR) and a standardised clustered metabolic risk score. RESULTS: CRF and PA (especially total PA, but also the time spent engaged in light and in moderate and vigorous intensity PA) were inversely associated with measures of obesity, HOMA-IR and the metabolic risk score, independently of each other, and of sociodemographic and nutritional parameters, media use, sleep duration, BMI and the neighbourhood environment (all p < 0.05). Children living in a rural environment were more physically active and had higher CRF values and reduced HOMA-IR and metabolic risk scores compared with children living in an urban environment (all p < 0.05). These differences in cardiovascular risk factors persisted after adjustment for CRF, total PA and BMI. CONCLUSIONS/INTERPRETATION: Reduced CRF, low PA and an urban environment are independently associated with an increase in metabolic risk markers in children.

Current cardiovascular risk management patterns with special focus on lipid lowering in daily practice in Switzerland.

Background: There may be a considerable gap between LDL cholesterol (LDL-C) and blood pressure (BP) goal values recommended by the guidelines and results achieved in daily practice. Design Prospective cross-sectional survey of cardiovascular disease risk profiles and management with focus on lipid lowering and BP lowering in clinical practice. Methods: In phase 1, the cardiovascular risk of patients with known lipid profile visiting their general practitioner was anonymously assessed in accordance to the PROCAM-score. In phase 2, high-risk patients who did not achieve LDL-C goal less than 2.6 mmol/l in phase 1 could be further documented. Results: Six hundred thirty-five general practitioners collected the data of 23 892 patients with known lipid profile. Forty percent were high-risk patients (diabetes mellitus or coronary heart disease or PROCAM-score >20%), compared with 27% estimated by the physicians. Goal attainment rate was almost double for BP than for LDL-C in high-risk patients (62 vs. 37%). Both goals were attained by 25%. LDL-C values in phase 1 and 2 were available for 3097 high-risk patients not at LDL-C goal in phase 1; 32% of patients achieved LDL-C goal of less than 2.6 mmol/l after a mean of 17 weeks. The most successful strategies for LDL-C reduction were implemented in only 22% of the high-risk patients. Conclusion: Although patients at high cardiovascular risk were treated more intensively than low or medium risk patients, the majority remained insufficiently controlled, which is an incentive for intensified medical education. Adequate implementation of Swiss and International guidelines would expectedly contribute to improved achievement of LDL-C and BP goal values in daily practice.

Explaining rapid transitions in the practice of flood risk management

This article draws on empirical material to reflect on what drives rapid change in flood risk management practice, reflecting wider interest in the way that scientific practices make risk landscapes and a specific focus on extreme events as drivers of rapid change. Such events are commonly referred to as a form of creative destruction, ones that reveal both the composition of socioenvironmental assemblages and provide a creative opportunity to remake those assemblages in alternate ways, therefore rapidly changing policy and practice. Drawing on wider thinking in complexity theory, we argue that what happens between events might be as, if not more, important than the events themselves. We use two empirical examples concerned with flood risk management practice: a rapid shift in the dominant technologies used to map flood risk in the United Kingdom and an experimental approach to public participation tested in two different locations, with dramatically different consequences. Both show that the state of the socioenvironmental assemblage in which the events take place matters as much as the magnitude of the events themselves. The periods between rapid changes are not simply periods of discursive consolidation but involve the ongoing mutation of such assemblages, which could either sensitize or desensitize them to rapid change. Understanding these intervening periods matters as much as the events themselves. If events matter, it is because of the ways in which they might bring into sharp focus the coding or framing of a socioenvironmental assemblage in policy or scientific practice irrespective of whether or not those events evolve the assemblage in subtle or more radical ways.

Risk Behavior and Reciprocity of Organ Donation Attitudes in Young Men.

BACKGROUND: Lack of donor organs remains a major obstacle in organ transplantation. Our aim was to evaluate (1) the association between engaging in high-risk recreational activities and attitudes toward organ donation and (2) the degree of reciprocity between organ acceptance and donation willingness in young men. METHODS: A 17-item, close-ended survey was offered to male conscripts ages 18 to 26 years in all Swiss military conscription centers. Predictors of organ donation attitudes were assessed in bivariate analyses and multiple logistic regression. Reciprocity of the intentions to accept and to donate organs was assessed by means of donor card status. RESULTS: In 1559 responses analyzed, neither motorcycling nor practicing extreme sports reached significant association with donor card holder status. Family communication about organ donation, student, or academic profession and living in a Latin linguistic region were predictors of positive organ donation attitudes, whereas residence in a German-speaking region and practicing any religion predicted reluctance. Significantly more respondents were willing to accept than to donate organs, especially among those without family communication concerning organ donation. CONCLUSIONS: For the first time, it was shown that high-risk recreational activities do not influence organ donation attitudes. Second, a considerable discrepancy in organ donation reciprocity was identified. We propose that increasing this reciprocity could eventually increase organ donation rates.

Effect of cocoa powder on the modulation of inflammatory biomarkers in patients at high risk of cardiovascular disease

Background: Epidemiologic studies have suggested that flavonoid intake plays a critical role in the prevention of coronary heart disease. Because atherosclerosis is considered a low-grade inflammatory disease, some feeding trials have analyzed the effects of cocoa (an important source of flavonoids) on inflammatory biomarkers, but the results have been controversial. Objective: The objective was to evaluate the effects of chronic cocoa consumption on cellular and serum biomarkers related to atherosclerosis in high-risk patients. Design: Forty-two high-risk volunteers (19 men and 23 women; mean 6 SD age: 69.7 6 11.5 y) were included in a randomized crossover feeding trial. All subjects received 40 g cocoa powder with 500 mL skim milk/d (C+M) or only 500 mL skim milk/d (M) for 4 wk. Before and after each intervention period, cellular and serum inflammatory biomarkers related to atherosclerosis were evaluated. Results: Adherence to the dietary protocol was excellent. No significant changes in the expression of adhesion molecules on T lymphocyte surfaces were found between the C+M and M groups. However, in monocytes, the expression of VLA-4, CD40, and CD36 was significantly lower (P = 0.005, 0.028, and 0.001, respectively) after C+M intake than after M intake. In addition, serum concentrations of the soluble endothelium-derived adhesion molecules P-selectin and intercellular adhesion molecule-1 were significantly lower (both P = 0.007) after C+M intake than after M intake. Conclusions: These results suggest that the intake of cocoa polyphenols may modulate inflammatory mediators in patients at high risk of cardiovascular disease. These antiinflammatory effects may contribute to the overall benefits of cocoa consumption against atherosclerosis. This trial was registered in the Current Controlled Trials at London, International Standard Randomized Controlled Trial Number, at controlled-trials.com as ISRCTN75176807.

PERC rule to exclude the diagnosis of pulmonary embolism in emergency low-risk patients: study protocol for the PROPER randomized controlled study.

BACKGROUND: The diagnosis of Pulmonary Embolism (PE) in the emergency department (ED) is crucial. As emergency physicians fear missing this potential life-threatening condition, PE tends to be over-investigated, exposing patients to unnecessary risks and uncertain benefit in terms of outcome. The Pulmonary Embolism Rule-out Criteria (PERC) is an eight-item block of clinical criteria that can identify patients who can safely be discharged from the ED without further investigation for PE. The endorsement of this rule could markedly reduce the number of irradiative imaging studies, ED length of stay, and rate of adverse events resulting from both diagnostic and therapeutic interventions. Several retrospective and prospective studies have shown the safety and benefits of the PERC rule for PE diagnosis in low-risk patients, but the validity of this rule is still controversial. We hypothesize that in European patients with a low gestalt clinical probability and who are PERC-negative, PE can be safely ruled out and the patient discharged without further testing. METHODS/DESIGN: This is a controlled, cluster randomized trial, in 15 centers in France. Each center will be randomized for the sequence of intervention periods: a 6-month intervention period (PERC-based strategy) followed by a 6-month control period (usual care), or in reverse order, with 2 months of "wash-out" between the 2 periods. Adult patients presenting to the ED with a suspicion of PE and a low pre test probability estimated by clinical gestalt will be eligible. The primary outcome is the percentage of failure resulting from the diagnostic strategy, defined as diagnosed venous thromboembolic events at 3-month follow-up, among patients for whom PE has been initially ruled out. DISCUSSION: The PERC rule has the potential to decrease the number of irradiative imaging studies in the ED, and is reported to be safe. However, no randomized study has ever validated the safety of PERC. Furthermore, some studies have challenged the safety of a PERC-based strategy to rule-out PE, especially in Europe where the prevalence of PE diagnosed in the ED is high. The PROPER study should provide high-quality evidence to settle this issue. If it confirms the safety of the PERC rule, physicians will be able to reduce the number of investigations, associated subsequent adverse events, costs, and ED length of stay for patients with a low clinical probability of PE. TRIAL REGISTRATION: NCT02375919 .

Visual performance in preterm infants with brain injuries compared with low-risk preterm infants

Background: Neonatal brain injuries are the main cause of visual deficit produced by damage to posterior visual pathways.While there are several studies of visual function in low-risk preterm infants or older children with brain injuries, research in children of early age is lacking. Aim: To assess several aspects of visual function in preterm infants with brain injuries and to compare them with another group of low-risk preterm infants of the same age. Study design and subjects: Forty-eight preterm infants with brain injuries and 56 low-risk preterm infants. Outcome measures: The ML Leonhardt Battery of Optotypes was used to assess visual functions. This test was previously validated at a post-menstrual age of 40 weeks in newborns and at 30-plus weeks in preterm infants. Results: The group of preterminfants with brain lesions showed a delayed pattern of visual functions in alertness, fixation, visual attention and tracking behavior compared to infants in the healthy preterm group. The differences between both groups, in the visual behaviors analyzed were around 30%. These visual functions could be identified from the first weeks of life. Conclusion: Our results confirm the importance of using a straightforward screening test with preterminfants in order to assess altered visual function, especially in infants with brain injuries. The findings also highlight the need to provide visual stimulation very early on in life.

Variation in Current Management of Term and Late-preterm Neonates at Risk for Early-onset Sepsis: An International Survey and Review of Guidelines.

BACKGROUND: Uncertainty about the presence of infection results in unnecessary and prolonged empiric antibiotic treatment of newborns at risk for early-onset sepsis (EOS). This study evaluates the impact of this uncertainty on the diversity in management. METHODS: A web-based survey with questions addressing management of infection risk-adjusted scenarios was performed in Europe, North America, and Australia. Published national guidelines (n = 5) were reviewed and compared with the results of the survey. RESULTS: 439 Clinicians (68% were neonatologists) from 16 countries completed the survey. In the low-risk scenario, 29% would start antibiotic therapy and 26% would not, both groups without laboratory investigations; 45% would start if laboratory markers were abnormal. In the high-risk scenario, 99% would start antibiotic therapy. In the low-risk scenario, 89% would discontinue antibiotic therapy before 72 hours. In the high-risk scenario, 35% would discontinue therapy before 72 hours, 56% would continue therapy for 5-7 days, and 9% for more than 7 days. Laboratory investigations were used in 31% of scenarios for the decision to start, and in 72% for the decision to discontinue antibiotic treatment. National guidelines differ considerably regarding the decision to start in low-risk and regarding the decision to continue therapy in higher risk situations. CONCLUSIONS: There is a broad diversity of clinical practice in management of EOS and a lack of agreement between current guidelines. The results of the survey reflect the diversity of national guidelines. Prospective studies regarding management of neonates at risk of EOS with safety endpoints are needed.

Supply Risk Management in Pharmaceutical

Fast development in the operating environment and fierce competition have driven companies to pursue efficiency and success through lean and global supply chains. At the same time overall uncertainty has increased in the business environment and supply chains have become a priority in risk management since their vulnerability may endanger business continuity. Although risk management should start at procurement strategy development phase, proactive contingency planning is also essential because it enables correct reaction and fast changes in process execution in the case of risk realization. This thesis is a case study conducted in the pharmaceutical industry where purchasing and materials management organizations face a number of challenges and limitations that have to be considered in supply risk management. The goal of the study was to discuss the operating environment, and identify and analyze supply risks and potential risk management practices. The study was concluded with suggestions for purchasing strategy development that take risk management considerations into account. This copy is the public version of the thesis.

Characteristics of credit risk assessment methods of major Nordic banks in allocating capital when extending credits to large corporations

Credit risk assessment is an integral part of banking. Credit risk means that the return will not materialise in case the customer fails to fulfil its obligations. Thus a key component of banking is setting acceptance criteria for granting loans. Theoretical part of the study focuses on key components of credit assessment methods of Banks in the literature when extending credits to large corporations. Main component is Basel II Accord, which sets regulatory requirement for credit risk assessment methods of banks. Empirical part comprises, as primary source, analysis of major Nordic banks’ annual reports and risk management reports. As secondary source complimentary interviews were carried out with senior credit risk assessment personnel. The findings indicate that all major Nordic banks are using combination of quantitative and qualitative information in credit risk assessment model when extending credits to large corporations. The relative input of qualitative information depends on the selected approach to the credit rating, i.e. point-in-time or through-the-cycle.

Survey of transportation of liquid bulk chemicals in the Baltic Sea

This study is made as a part of the Chembaltic (Risks of Maritime Transportation of Chemicals in Baltic Sea) project which gathers information on the chemicals transported in the Baltic Sea. The purpose of this study is to provide an overview of handling volumes of liquid bulk chemicals (including liquefied gases) in the Baltic Sea ports and to find out what the most transported liquid bulk chemicals in the Baltic Sea are. Oil and oil products are also viewed in this study but only in a general level. Oils and oil products may also include chemical-related substances (e.g. certain bio-fuels which belong to MARPOL annex II category) in some cargo statistics. Chemicals in packaged form are excluded from the study. Most of the facts about the transport volumes of chemicals presented in this study are based on secondary written sources of Scandinavian, Russian, Baltic and international origin. Furthermore, statistical sources, academic journals, periodicals, newspapers and in later years also different homepages on the Internet have been used as sources of information. Chemical handling volumes in Finnish ports were examined in more detail by using a nationwide vessel traffic system called PortNet. Many previous studies have shown that the Baltic Sea ports are annually handling more than 11 million tonnes of liquid chemicals transported in bulk. Based on this study, it appears that the number may be even higher. The liquid bulk chemicals account for approximately 4 % of the total amount of liquid bulk cargoes handled in the Baltic Sea ports. Most of the liquid bulk chemicals are handled in Finnish and Swedish ports and their proportion of all liquid chemicals handled in the Baltic Sea is altogether over 50 %. The most handled chemicals in the Baltic Sea ports are methanol, sodium hydroxide solution, ammonia, sulphuric and phosphoric acid, pentanes, aromatic free solvents, xylenes, methyl tert-butyl ether (MTBE) and ethanol and ethanol solutions. All of these chemicals are handled at least hundred thousand tonnes or some of them even over 1 million tonnes per year, but since chemical-specific data from all the Baltic Sea countries is not available, the exact tonnages could not be calculated in this study. In addition to these above-mentioned chemicals, there are also other high volume chemicals handled in the Baltic Sea ports (e.g. ethylene, propane and butane) but exact tonnes are missing. Furthermore, high amounts of liquid fertilisers, such as solution of urea and ammonium nitrate in water, are transported in the Baltic Sea. The results of the study can be considered indicative. Updated information about transported chemicals in the Baltic Sea is the first step in the risk assessment of the chemicals. The chemical-specific transportation data help to target hazard or e.g. grounding/collision risk evaluations to chemicals that are handled most or have significant environmental hazard potential. Data gathered in this study will be used as background information in later stages of the Chembaltic project when the risks of the chemicals transported in the Baltic Sea are assessed to highlight the chemicals that require special attention from an environmental point of view in potential marine accident situations in the Baltic Sea area.

Risk Assessment of Modern Landfill Structures in Finland

The purpose of this thesis was to investigate environmental permits of landfills with respect to the appropriateness of risk assessments focusing on contaminant migration, structures capable to protect the environment, waste and leachate management and existing environmental impacts of landfills. According to the requirements, a risk assessment is always required to demonstrate compliance with environmental protection requirements if the environmental permit decision deviates from the set requirements. However, there is a reason to doubt that all relevant risk factors are identified in current risk assessment practices in order to protect people end environment. In this dissertation, risk factors were recognized in 12 randomly selected landfills. Based on this analysis, a structural risk assessment method was created. The method was verified with two case examples. Several development needs were found in the risk assessments of the environmental permit decisions. The risk analysis equations used in the decisions did not adequately take into account all the determining factors like waste prospects, total risk quantification or human delineated factors. Instead of focusing on crucial factors, the landfill environmental protection capability is simply expressed via technical factors like hydraulic conductivity. In this thesis, it could be shown, that using adequate risk assessment approaches the most essential environmental impacts can be taken into account by consideration of contaminant transport mechanisms, leachate effects, and artificial landfill structures. The developed structural risk analysing (SRA) method shows, that landfills structures could be designed in a more cost-efficient way taking advantage of recycled or by-products. Additionally, the research results demonstrate that the environmental protection requirements of landfills should be updated to correspond to the capability to protect the environment instead of the current simplified requirements related to advective transport only.

Liquidity Risk in the Finnish Stock Market

This study explores the pricing of liquidity risk and its effect on stock returns in the Finnish stock market. In addition to that, it investigates whether there is a trend in liquidity risk. Finally, it analyzes whether the two chosen liquidity measures provide different results. The data consists of all the common shares listed in the Finnish stock market during the period of 1/1997–7/2015. To examine whether liquidity risk affects stock returns in the Finnish stock market, this study utilizes a conditional version of liquidity-adjusted capital asset pricing model (LCAPM) by Acharya and Pedersen (2005). Two recently proposed illiquidity measures – PQS and AdjILLIQ – are used in the empirical estimation to see whether there are differences in the results between the measures. The time-varying conditional liquidity risks are estimated by using a multivariate DCC-GARCH model, while the pricing of the liquidity risk is conducted by applying fixed effect panel regression. The results imply that investors in the Finnish stock market are willing to pay a premium to hedge from wealth shocks and having liquid assets during the declined market liquidity. However, investors are not willing to pay a premium for stocks with higher returns during illiquid markets. The total annualized illiquidity premiums found in the Finnish stock market are 1.77% and 1.04%, based on the PQS and AdjILLIQ measures, respectively. The study also shows that liquidity risk does not exhibit decreasing trend, and investors should consider liquidity risk in their portfolio diversification in the Finnish stock market.