Emotion and reason in everyday risk perception

Although research has documented the importance of emotion in risk perception, little is knownabout its prevalence in everyday life. Using the Experience Sampling Method, 94 part-timestudents were prompted at random via cellular telephones to report on mood state and threeemotions and to assess risk on thirty occasions during their working hours. The emotions valence, arousal, and dominance were measured using self-assessment manikins (Bradley &Lang, 1994). Hierarchical linear models (HLM) revealed that mood state and emotions explainedsignificant variance in risk perception. In addition, valence and arousal accounted for varianceover and above reason (measured by severity and possibility of risks). Six risks were reassessedin a post-experimental session and found to be lower than their real-time counterparts.The study demonstrates the feasibility and value of collecting representative samples of data withsimple technology. Evidence for the statistical consistency of the HLM estimates is provided inan Appendix.

Determinants of linear judgment: A meta-analysis of lens model studies

The mathematical representation of Brunswik s lens model has been usedextensively to study human judgment and provides a unique opportunity to conduct ameta-analysis of studies that covers roughly five decades. Specifically, we analyzestatistics of the lens model equation (Tucker, 1964) associated with 259 different taskenvironments obtained from 78 papers. In short, we find on average fairly high levelsof judgmental achievement and note that people can achieve similar levels of cognitiveperformance in both noisy and predictable environments. Although overall performancevaries little between laboratory and field studies, both differ in terms of components ofperformance and types of environments (numbers of cues and redundancy). An analysisof learning studies reveals that the most effective form of feedback is information aboutthe task. We also analyze empirically when bootstrapping is more likely to occur. Weconclude by indicating shortcomings of the kinds of studies conducted to date, limitationsin the lens model methodology, and possibilities for future research.

The value of useless information

There are many situations in which individuals have a choice of whether or notto observe eventual outcomes. In these instances, individuals often prefer to remainignorant. These contexts are outside the scope of analysis of the standard vonNeumann-Morgenstern (vNM) expected utility model, which does not distinguishbetween lotteries for which the agent sees the final outcome and those for which hedoes not. I develop a simple model that admits preferences for making an observationor for remaining in doubt. I then use this model to analyze the connectionbetween preferences of this nature and risk-attitude. This framework accommodatesa wide array of behavioral patterns that violate the vNM model, and thatmay not seem related, prima facie. For instance, it admits self-handicapping, inwhich an agent chooses to impair his own performance. It also accommodatesa status quo bias without having recourse to framing effects, or to an explicitdefinition of reference points. In a political economy context, voters have strictincentives to shield themselves from information. In settings with other-regardingpreferences, this model predicts observed behavior that seems inconsistent witheither altruism or self-interested behavior.

Two-sided learning in New Keynesian models: Dynamics, (lack of) convergence and the value of information

This paper investigates the role of learning by private agents and the central bank(two-sided learning) in a New Keynesian framework in which both sides of the economyhave asymmetric and imperfect knowledge about the true data generating process. Weassume that all agents employ the data that they observe (which may be distinct fordifferent sets of agents) to form beliefs about unknown aspects of the true model ofthe economy, use their beliefs to decide on actions, and revise these beliefs througha statistical learning algorithm as new information becomes available. We study theshort-run dynamics of our model and derive its policy recommendations, particularlywith respect to central bank communications. We demonstrate that two-sided learningcan generate substantial increases in volatility and persistence, and alter the behaviorof the variables in the model in a significant way. Our simulations do not convergeto a symmetric rational expectations equilibrium and we highlight one source thatinvalidates the convergence results of Marcet and Sargent (1989). Finally, we identifya novel aspect of central bank communication in models of learning: communicationcan be harmful if the central bank's model is substantially mis-specified.

Value and prices in Russian economic thought (1890-1920)

The subject "Value and prices in Russian economic thought (1890--1920)" should evoke several names and debates in the reader's mind. For a long time, Western scholars have been aware that the Russian economists Tugan-Baranovsky and Bortkiewicz were active participants to the Marxian transformation problem, that the mathematical models of Dmitriev prefigured forthcoming neoricardian based models, and that many Russian economists were either supporting the Marxian labour theory of value or being revisionists. Moreover, these ideas were preparing the ground for Soviet planning. Russian scholars additionally knew that this period was the time of introduction of marginalism in Russia, and that, during this period, economists were active in thinking the relation of ethics with economic theory. All these issues are well covered in the existing literature. But there is a big gap that this dissertation intends to fill. The existing literature handles these pieces separately, although they are part of a single, more general, history. All these issues (the labour theory of value, marginalism, the Marxian transformation problem, planning, ethics, mathematical economics) were part of what this dissertation calls here "The Russian synthesis". The Russian synthesis (in the singular) designates here all the attempts at synthesis between classical political economy and marginalism, between labour theory of value and marginal utility, and between value and prices that occurred in Russian economic thought between 1890 and 1920, and that embraces the whole set of issues evoked above. This dissertation has the ambition of being the first comprehensive history of that Russian synthesis. In this, this contribution is unique. It has always surprised the author of the present dissertation that such a book has not yet been written. Several good reasons, both in terms of scarce availability of sources and of ideological restrictions, may accounted for a reasonable delay of several decades. But it is now urgent to remedy the situation before the protagonists of the Russian synthesis are definitely classified under the wrong labels in the pantheon of economic thought. To accomplish this task, it has seldom be sufficient to gather together the various existing studies on aspects of this story. It as been necessary to return to the primary sources in the Russian language. The most important part of the primary literature has never been translated, and in the last years only some of them have been republished in Russian. Therefore, most translations from the Russian have been made by the author of the present dissertation. The secondary literature has been surveyed in the languages that are familiar (Russian, English and French) or almost familiar (German) to the present author, and which are hopefully the most pertinent to the present investigation. Besides, and in order to increase the acquaintance with the text, which was the objective of all this, some archival sources were used. The analysis consists of careful chronological studies of the authors' writings and their evolution in their historical and intellectual context. As a consequence, the dissertation brings new authors to the foreground - Shaposhnikov and Yurovsky - who were traditionally confined to the substitutes' bench, because they only superficially touched the domains quoted above. In the Russian synthesis however, they played an important part of the story. As a side effect, some authors that used to play in the foreground - Dmitriev and Bortkiewicz - are relegated to the background, but are not forgotten. Besides, the dissertation refreshes the views on authors already known, such as Ziber and, especially, Tugan-Baranovsky. The ultimate objective of this dissertation is to change the opinion that one could have on "value and prices in Russian economic thought", by setting the Russian synthesis at the centre of the debates.

Book vs. fair value accounting in banking and intertemporal smoothing

The aim of this paper is to examine the pros and cons of book and fair value accounting from the perspective of the theory of banking. We consider the implications of the two accounting methods in an overlapping generations environment. As observed by Allen and Gale(1997), in an overlapping generation model, banks have a role as intergenerational connectors as they allow for intertemporal smoothing. Our main result is that when dividends depend on profits, book value ex ante dominates fair value, as it provides better intertemporal smoothing. This is in contrast with the standard view that states that, fair value yields a better allocation as it reflects the real opportunity cost of assets. Banking regulation play an important role by providing the right incentives for banks to smooth intertemporal consumption whereas market discipline improves intratemporal efficiency.

Replicative phenotyping adds value to genotypic resistance testing in heavily pre-treated HIV-infected individuals--the Swiss HIV Cohort Study.

BACKGROUND: Replicative phenotypic HIV resistance testing (rPRT) uses recombinant infectious virus to measure viral replication in the presence of antiretroviral drugs. Due to its high sensitivity of detection of viral minorities and its dissecting power for complex viral resistance patterns and mixed virus populations rPRT might help to improve HIV resistance diagnostics, particularly for patients with multiple drug failures. The aim was to investigate whether the addition of rPRT to genotypic resistance testing (GRT) compared to GRT alone is beneficial for obtaining a virological response in heavily pre-treated HIV-infected patients. METHODS: Patients with resistance tests between 2002 and 2006 were followed within the Swiss HIV Cohort Study (SHCS). We assessed patients' virological success after their antiretroviral therapy was switched following resistance testing. Multilevel logistic regression models with SHCS centre as a random effect were used to investigate the association between the type of resistance test and virological response (HIV-1 RNA <50 copies/mL or ≥1.5 log reduction). RESULTS: Of 1158 individuals with resistance tests 221 with GRT+rPRT and 937 with GRT were eligible for analysis. Overall virological response rates were 85.1% for GRT+rPRT and 81.4% for GRT. In the subgroup of patients with >2 previous failures, the odds ratio (OR) for virological response of GRT+rPRT compared to GRT was 1.45 (95% CI 1.00-2.09). Multivariate analyses indicate a significant improvement with GRT+rPRT compared to GRT alone (OR 1.68, 95% CI 1.31-2.15). CONCLUSIONS: In heavily pre-treated patients rPRT-based resistance information adds benefit, contributing to a higher rate of treatment success.

Plastic brain mechanisms for attaining auditory temporal order judgment proficiency.

Accurate perception of the order of occurrence of sensory information is critical for the building up of coherent representations of the external world from ongoing flows of sensory inputs. While some psychophysical evidence reports that performance on temporal perception can improve, the underlying neural mechanisms remain unresolved. Using electrical neuroimaging analyses of auditory evoked potentials (AEPs), we identified the brain dynamics and mechanism supporting improvements in auditory temporal order judgment (TOJ) during the course of the first vs. latter half of the experiment. Training-induced changes in brain activity were first evident 43-76 ms post stimulus onset and followed from topographic, rather than pure strength, AEP modulations. Improvements in auditory TOJ accuracy thus followed from changes in the configuration of the underlying brain networks during the initial stages of sensory processing. Source estimations revealed an increase in the lateralization of initially bilateral posterior sylvian region (PSR) responses at the beginning of the experiment to left-hemisphere dominance at its end. Further supporting the critical role of left and right PSR in auditory TOJ proficiency, as the experiment progressed, responses in the left and right PSR went from being correlated to un-correlated. These collective findings provide insights on the neurophysiologic mechanism and plasticity of temporal processing of sounds and are consistent with models based on spike timing dependent plasticity.

Value of sTREM-1, procalcitonin and CRP as laboratory parameters for postmortem diagnosis of sepsis.

OBJECTIVES: Triggering receptor expressed on myeloid cells-1 (TREM-1) was reported to be up-regulated in various inflammatory diseases as well as in bacterial sepsis. Increased cell-surface TREM-1 expression was also shown to result in marked plasma elevation of the soluble form of this molecule (sTREM-1) in patients with bacterial infections. In this study, we investigated sTREM-1, procalcitonin and C-reactive protein in postmortem serum in a series of sepsis-related fatalities and control individuals who underwent medico-legal investigations. sTREM-1 was also measured in pericardial fluid and urine. METHODS: Two study groups were prospectively formed, a sepsis-related fatalities group and a control group. The sepsis-related fatalities group consisted of sixteen forensic autopsy cases. Eight of these had a documented clinical diagnosis of sepsis in vivo. The control group consisted of sixteen forensic autopsy cases with various causes of death. RESULTS: Postmortem serum sTREM-1 concentrations were higher in the sepsis group with a mean value of 173.6 pg/ml in septic cases and 79.2 pg/ml in control individuals. The cutoff value of 90 pg/ml provided the best sensitivity and specificity. Pericardial fluid sTREM-1 values were higher in the septic group, with a mean value of 296.7 pg/ml in septic cases and 100.9 pg/ml in control individuals. The cutoff value of 135 pg/ml provided the best sensitivity and specificity. Mean urine sTREM-1 concentration was 102.9 pg/ml in septic cases and 89.3 pg/ml in control individuals. CONCLUSIONS: Postmortem serum sTREM-1, individually considered, did not provide better sensitivity and specificity than procalcitonin in detecting sepsis. However, simultaneous assessment of procalcitonin and sTREM-1 in postmortem serum can be of help in clarifying contradictory postmortem findings. sTREM-1 determination in pericardial fluid can be an alternative to postmortem serum in those situations in which biochemical analyses are required and blood collected during autopsy proves insufficient.

Value and depreciation of mineral resources over the very long run: An empirical contrast of different methods

The paper contrasts empirically the results of alternative methods for estimating thevalue and the depreciation of mineral resources. The historical data of Mexico andVenezuela, covering the period 1920s-1980s, is used to contrast the results of severalmethods. These are the present value, the net price method, the user cost method andthe imputed income method. The paper establishes that the net price and the user costare not competing methods as such, but alternative adjustments to different scenariosof closed and open economies. The results prove that the biases of the methods, ascommonly described in the theoretical literature, only hold under the most restrictedscenario of constant rents over time. It is argued that the difference between what isexpected to happen and what actually did happen is for the most part due to a missingvariable, namely technological change. This is an important caveat to therecommendations made based on these models.

Solving higher-dimensional continuous time stochastic control problems by value function regression

The paper develops a method to solve higher-dimensional stochasticcontrol problems in continuous time. A finite difference typeapproximation scheme is used on a coarse grid of low discrepancypoints, while the value function at intermediate points is obtainedby regression. The stability properties of the method are discussed,and applications are given to test problems of up to 10 dimensions.Accurate solutions to these problems can be obtained on a personalcomputer.