Power law and entropy analysis of catastrophic phenomena

Catastrophic events, such as wars and terrorist attacks, tornadoes and hurricanes, earthquakes, tsunamis, floods and landslides, are always accompanied by a large number of casualties. The size distribution of these casualties has separately been shown to follow approximate power law (PL) distributions. In this paper, we analyze the statistical distributions of the number of victims of catastrophic phenomena, in particular, terrorism, and find double PL behavior. This means that the data sets are better approximated by two PLs instead of a single one. We plot the PL parameters, corresponding to several events, and observe an interesting pattern in the charts, where the lines that connect each pair of points defining the double PLs are almost parallel to each other. A complementary data analysis is performed by means of the computation of the entropy. The results reveal relationships hidden in the data that may trigger a future comprehensive explanation of this type of phenomena.

Engineering real-time applications with WorldFIP: tools and analysis

WorldFIP is standardised as European Norm EN 50170 - General Purpose Field Communication System. Field communication systems (fieldbuses) started to be widely used as the communication support for distributed computer-controlled systems (DCCS), and are being used in all sorts of process control and manufacturing applications within different types of industries. There are several advantages in using fieldbuses as a replacement of for the traditional point-to-point links between sensors/actuators and computer-based control systems. Indeed they concern economical ones (cable savings) but, importantly, fieldbuses allow an increased decentralisation and distribution of the processing power over the field. Typically DCCS have real-time requirements that must be fulfilled. By this, we mean that process data must be transferred between network computing nodes within a maximum admissible time span. WorldFIP has very interesting mechanisms to schedule data transfers. It explicit distinguishes to types of traffic: periodic and aperiodic. In this paper we describe how WorldFIP handles these two types of traffic, and more importantly, we provide a comprehensive analysis for guaranteeing the real-time requirements of both types of traffic. A major contribution is made in the analysis of worst-case response time of aperiodic transfer requests.

Communication response time in P-NET networks: worst-case analysis considering the actual token utilisation

Fieldbus networks aim at the interconnection of field devices such as sensors, actuators and small controllers. Therefore, they are an effective technology upon which Distributed Computer Controlled Systems (DCCS) can be built. DCCS impose strict timeliness requirements to the communication network. In essence, by timeliness requirements we mean that traffic must be sent and received within a bounded interval, otherwise a timing fault is said to occur. P-NET is a multi-master fieldbus standard based on a virtual token passing scheme. In P-NET each master is allowed to transmit only one message per token visit, which means that in the worst-case the communication response time could be derived considering that the token is fully utilised by all stations. However, such analysis can be proved to be quite pessimistic. In this paper we propose a more sophisticated P-NET timing analysis model, which considers the actual token utilisation by different masters. The major contribution of this model is to provide a less pessimistic, and thus more accurate, analysis for the evaluation of the worst-case communication response time in P-NET fieldbus networks.

Using WorldFIP networks to support periodic and sporadic real-time traffic

In this paper we address the ability of WorldFIP to cope with the real-time requirements of distributed computer-controlled systems (DCCS). Typical DCCS include process variables that must be transferred between network devices both in a periodic and sporadic (aperiodic) basis. The WorldFIP protocol is designed to support both types of traffic. WorldFIP can easily guarantee the timing requirements for the periodic traffic. However, for the aperiodic traffic more complex analysis must be made in order to guarantee its timing requirements. This paper describes work that is being carried out to extend previous relevant work, in order to include the actual schedule for the periodic traffic in the worst-case response time analysis of sporadic traffic in WorldFIP networks

Pre-run-time schedulability analysis of P-NET fieldbus networks

P-NET is a fieldbus industrial communication standard, which uses a Virtual Token Passing MAC mechanism. In this paper we establish pre-run-time schedulability conditions for supporting real-time traffic with P-NET. Essentially we provide formulae to evaluate the minimum message deadline, ensuring the transmission of real-time messages within a maximum time bound

Analysis of temperature time-series: embedding dynamics into the MDS method

Global warming and the associated climate changes are being the subject of intensive research due to their major impact on social, economic and health aspects of the human life. Surface temperature time-series characterise Earth as a slow dynamics spatiotemporal system, evidencing long memory behaviour, typical of fractional order systems. Such phenomena are difficult to model and analyse, demanding for alternative approaches. This paper studies the complex correlations between global temperature time-series using the Multidimensional scaling (MDS) approach. MDS provides a graphical representation of the pattern of climatic similarities between regions around the globe. The similarities are quantified through two mathematical indices that correlate the monthly average temperatures observed in meteorological stations, over a given period of time. Furthermore, time dynamics is analysed by performing the MDS analysis over slices sampling the time series. MDS generates maps describing the stations’ locus in the perspective that, if they are perceived to be similar to each other, then they are placed on the map forming clusters. We show that MDS provides an intuitive and useful visual representation of the complex relationships that are present among temperature time-series, which are not perceived on traditional geographic maps. Moreover, MDS avoids sensitivity to the irregular distribution density of the meteorological stations.

Pattern operators for grid

The definition and programming of distributed applications has become a major research issue due to the increasing availability of (large scale) distributed platforms and the requirements posed by the economical globalization. However, such a task requires a huge effort due to the complexity of the distributed environments: large amount of users may communicate and share information across different authority domains; moreover, the “execution environment” or “computations” are dynamic since the number of users and the computational infrastructure change in time. Grid environments, in particular, promise to be an answer to deal with such complexity, by providing high performance execution support to large amount of users, and resource sharing across different organizations. Nevertheless, programming in Grid environments is still a difficult task. There is a lack of high level programming paradigms and support tools that may guide the application developer and allow reusability of state-of-the-art solutions. Specifically, the main goal of the work presented in this thesis is to contribute to the simplification of the development cycle of applications for Grid environments by bringing structure and flexibility to three stages of that cycle through a commonmodel. The stages are: the design phase, the execution phase, and the reconfiguration phase. The common model is based on the manipulation of patterns through pattern operators, and the division of both patterns and operators into two categories, namely structural and behavioural. Moreover, both structural and behavioural patterns are first class entities at each of the aforesaid stages. At the design phase, patterns can be manipulated like other first class entities such as components. This allows a more structured way to build applications by reusing and composing state-of-the-art patterns. At the execution phase, patterns are units of execution control: it is possible, for example, to start or stop and to resume the execution of a pattern as a single entity. At the reconfiguration phase, patterns can also be manipulated as single entities with the additional advantage that it is possible to perform a structural reconfiguration while keeping some of the behavioural constraints, and vice-versa. For example, it is possible to replace a behavioural pattern, which was applied to some structural pattern, with another behavioural pattern. In this thesis, besides the proposal of the methodology for distributed application development, as sketched above, a definition of a relevant set of pattern operators was made. The methodology and the expressivity of the pattern operators were assessed through the development of several representative distributed applications. To support this validation, a prototype was designed and implemented, encompassing some relevant patterns and a significant part of the patterns operators defined. This prototype was based in the Triana environment; Triana supports the development and deployment of distributed applications in the Grid through a dataflow-based programming model. Additionally, this thesis also presents the analysis of a mapping of some operators for execution control onto the Distributed Resource Management Application API (DRMAA). This assessment confirmed the suitability of the proposed model, as well as the generality and flexibility of the defined pattern operators

Increase in cases of malaria in Mozambique, 2014: epidemic or new endemic pattern?

ABSTRACT OBJECTIVE To describe the increase in cases of malaria in Mozambique. METHODS Cross-sectional study conducted in 2014, in Mozambique with national weekly epidemiological bulletin data. I analyzed the number of recorded cases in the 2009-2013 period, which led to the creation of an endemic channel using the quartile and C-Sum methods. Monthly incidence rates were calculated for the first half of 2014, making it possible to determine the pattern of endemicity. Months in which the incidence rates exceeded the third quartile or line C-sum were declared as epidemic months. RESULTS The provinces of Nampula, Zambezia, Sofala, and Inhambane accounted for 52.7% of all cases in the first half of 2014. Also during this period, the provinces of Nampula, Sofala and Tete were responsible for 54.9% of the deaths from malaria. The incidence rates of malaria in children, and in all ages, have showed patterns in the epidemic zone. For all ages, the incidence rate has peaked in April (2,573 cases/100,000 inhabitants). CONCLUSIONS The results suggest the occurrence of an epidemic pattern of malaria in the first half of 2014 in Mozambique. It is strategic to have a more accurate surveillance at all levels (central, provincial and district) to target prevention and control interventions in a timely manner.

Urban land use change analysis and modelling: a case study of Setubal-Sesimbra, Portugal

Dissertation submitted in partial fulfilment of the requirements for the Degree of Master of Science in Geospatial Technologies

Simulation and dynamics of freeway traffic

This paper presents the new package entitled Simulator of Intelligent Transportation Systems (SITS) and a computational oriented analysis of traffic dynamics. The SITS adopts a microscopic simulation approach to reproduce real traffic conditions considering different types of vehicles, drivers and roads. A set of experiments with the SITS reveal the dynamic phenomena exhibited by this kind of system. For this purpose a modelling formalism is developed that embeds the statistics and the Laplace transform. The results make possible the adoption of classical system theory tools and point out that it is possible to study traffic systems taking advantage of the knowledge gathered with automatic control algorithms. A complementary perspective for the analysis of the traffic flow is also quantified through the entropy measure.

Proteomic analysis of the influence of the adipocyte secretome on Glioma Gl261 cells

Glioma is the most frequent form of malignant brain tumor in the adults and childhood. There is a global tendency toward a higher incidence of gliomas in highly developed and industrialized countries. Simultaneously obesity is reaching epidemic proportions in such developed countries. It has been highly accepted that obesity may play an important role in the biology of several types of cancer. We have developed an in vitro method for the understanding of the influence of obesity on glioma mouse cells (Gl261). 3T3-L1 mouse pre-adipocytes were induced to the maturity. The conditioned medium was harvested and used into the Gl261 cultures. Using two-dimension electrophoresis it was analyzed the proteome content of Gl261 in the presence of conditioned medium (CGl) and in its absence (NCGl). The differently expressed spots were collected and analyzed by means of mass spectroscopy (MALDI-TOF-MS). Significantly expression pattern changes were observed in eleven proteins and enzymes. RFC1, KIF5C, ANXA2, N-RAP, RACK1 and citrate synthase were overexpressed or only present in the CGl. Contrariwise, STI1, hnRNPs and phosphoglycerate kinase 1 were significantly underexpressed in CGl. Aldose reductase and carbonic anhydrase were expressed only in NCGl. Our results show that obesity remodels the physiological and metabolic behavior of glioma cancer cells. Also, proteins found differently expressed are implicated in several signaling pathways that control matrix remodeling, proliferation, progression, migration and invasion. In general our results support the idea that obesity may increase glioma malignancy, however, some interesting paradox finding were also reported and discussed.

Social network analysis applied to knowledge creation and transfer in the portuguese agricultural R&D field: an exploratory study

Paper presented at the 9th European Conference on Knowledge Management, Southampton Solent University, Southampton, UK, 4-5 Sep. 2008. URL: http://academic-conferences.org/eckm/eckm2008/eckm08-home.htm

Liver morphology with emphasis on bile ducts changes and survival analysis in mice submitted to multiple Schistosoma mansoni infections and chemotherapy

In an attempt to be as close as possible to the infected and treated patients of the endemic areas of schistosomiasis (S. mansoni) and in order to achieve a long period of follow-up, mice were repeatedly infected with a low number of cercariae. Survival data and histological variables such as schistosomal granuloma, portal changes, hepatocellular necrosis, hepatocellular regeneration, schistosomotic pigment, periductal fibrosis and chiefly bile ducts changes were analysed in the infected treated and non treated mice. Oxamniquine chemotherapy in repeatedly infected mice prolonged survival significantly when compared to non-treated animals (chi-square 9.24, p = 0.0024), thus confirming previous results with a similar experimental model but with a shorter term follow-up. Furthermore, mortality decreased rapidly after treatment suggesting an abrupt reduction in the severity of hepatic lesions. A morphological and immunohistochemical study of the liver was carried out. Portal fibrosis, with a pattern resembling human Symmers fibrosis was present at a late phase in the infected animals. Bile duct lesions were quite close to those described in human Mansonian schistosomiasis. Schistosomal antigen was observed in one isolated altered bile duct cell. The pathogenesis of the bile duct changes and its relation to the parasite infection and/or their antigens are discussed.

Optimization of River Water Quality Surveys by Multivariate Analysis of Physicochemical, Bacteriological and Ecotoxicological Data

This study aims to optimize the water quality monitoring of a polluted watercourse (Leça River, Portugal) through the principal component analysis (PCA) and cluster analysis (CA). These statistical methodologies were applied to physicochemical, bacteriological and ecotoxicological data (with the marine bacterium Vibrio fischeri and the green alga Chlorella vulgaris) obtained with the analysis of water samples monthly collected at seven monitoring sites and during five campaigns (February, May, June, August, and September 2006). The results of some variables were assigned to water quality classes according to national guidelines. Chemical and bacteriological quality data led to classify Leça River water quality as “bad” or “very bad”. PCA and CA identified monitoring sites with similar pollution pattern, giving to site 1 (located in the upstream stretch of the river) a distinct feature from all other sampling sites downstream. Ecotoxicity results corroborated this classification thus revealing differences in space and time. The present study includes not only physical, chemical and bacteriological but also ecotoxicological parameters, which broadens new perspectives in river water characterization. Moreover, the application of PCA and CA is very useful to optimize water quality monitoring networks, defining the minimum number of sites and their location. Thus, these tools can support appropriate management decisions.

Fractional calculus analysis of the cosmic microwave background

Cosmic microwave background (CMB) radiation is the imprint from an early stage of the Universe and investigation of its properties is crucial for understanding the fundamental laws governing the structure and evolution of the Universe. Measurements of the CMB anisotropies are decisive to cosmology, since any cosmological model must explain it. The brightness, strongest at the microwave frequencies, is almost uniform in all directions, but tiny variations reveal a spatial pattern of small anisotropies. Active research is being developed seeking better interpretations of the phenomenon. This paper analyses the recent data in the perspective of fractional calculus. By taking advantage of the inherent memory of fractional operators some hidden properties are captured and described.