Do U.S. and Colombian macro factors improve the forecasting ability of unrestricted VAR models of the local term structure of interest rate?

Este estudio empírico compara la capacidad de los modelos Vectores auto-regresivos (VAR) sin restricciones para predecir la estructura temporal de las tasas de interés en Colombia -- Se comparan modelos VAR simples con modelos VAR aumentados con factores macroeconómicos y financieros colombianos y estadounidenses -- Encontramos que la inclusión de la información de los precios del petróleo, el riesgo de crédito de Colombia y un indicador internacional de la aversión al riesgo mejora la capacidad de predicción fuera de la muestra de los modelos VAR sin restricciones para vencimientos de corto plazo con frecuencia mensual -- Para vencimientos de mediano y largo plazo los modelos sin variables macroeconómicas presentan mejores pronósticos sugiriendo que las curvas de rendimiento de mediano y largo plazo ya incluyen toda la información significativa para pronosticarlos -- Este hallazgo tiene implicaciones importantes para los administradores de portafolios, participantes del mercado y responsables de las políticas

Investigations of the present factors affecting the population characteristics and relative abundance of nile perch (Lates niloticus) at selected trawling sites of western part of Lake Victoria, Uganda, Kagegi Gulf

This report is based on the investigation of the factors affecting population characteristics and relative abundance of Nile perch in selected sites of Kagegi Gulf Lake Victoria Uganda in the month of November 2006. Nine (9) stations were sampled at depth strata of 0-10, 10-20, 20-30 and 30-40 m the mean catch rates were as follows; 8.75±5.5, 4.77±2.3, 6.33±0.3 and 1.34±1.1 tonnes per square kilometer respectively. The catch rates differed at various depth levels with p-value of 0.2940 at 5% level of significance. Limnological parameters were temperature 25.15±0.28, 23.68±0.20, 24.74±0.13 and 25.3±0.20°C; pH of 8.0±0.00, 7.7±0.11; 7.66±0.33 and 6.32±0.14, dissolved oxygen 7.37±0.24, 6.44±0.30, 6.32±0.14 and 6.22±0.14 mg/l; Total nitrogen 589.82±97.2, 514.34±68.8, 690.44±257.8 and 809.03±45.02 µgL-respectively with a p-value of 0.4392 at 5% level of significance. Prey type of Nile perch indicated 65.2% of haplochromine in 0-10 m depth and other strata >10 metre were dominated by Caridina nilotica. Generally investigations indicated that the catch rates of Nile perch at Kagegi gulf in various depth strata probably depended on both the physical and chemical parameters mentioned above.

Essays on the term structure of interest rates

This PhD thesis contains three main chapters on macro finance, with a focus on the term structure of interest rates and the applications of state-of-the-art Bayesian econometrics. Except for Chapter 1 and Chapter 5, which set out the general introduction and conclusion, each of the chapters can be considered as a standalone piece of work. In Chapter 2, we model and predict the term structure of US interest rates in a data rich environment. We allow the model dimension and parameters to change over time, accounting for model uncertainty and sudden structural changes. The proposed timevarying parameter Nelson-Siegel Dynamic Model Averaging (DMA) predicts yields better than standard benchmarks. DMA performs better since it incorporates more macro-finance information during recessions. The proposed method allows us to estimate plausible realtime term premia, whose countercyclicality weakened during the financial crisis. Chapter 3 investigates global term structure dynamics using a Bayesian hierarchical factor model augmented with macroeconomic fundamentals. More than half of the variation in the bond yields of seven advanced economies is due to global co-movement. Our results suggest that global inflation is the most important factor among global macro fundamentals. Non-fundamental factors are essential in driving global co-movements, and are closely related to sentiment and economic uncertainty. Lastly, we analyze asymmetric spillovers in global bond markets connected to diverging monetary policies. Chapter 4 proposes a no-arbitrage framework of term structure modeling with learning and model uncertainty. The representative agent considers parameter instability, as well as the uncertainty in learning speed and model restrictions. The empirical evidence shows that apart from observational variance, parameter instability is the dominant source of predictive variance when compared with uncertainty in learning speed or model restrictions. When accounting for ambiguity aversion, the out-of-sample predictability of excess returns implied by the learning model can be translated into significant and consistent economic gains over the Expectations Hypothesis benchmark.

Essays on the term structure of interest rates

This PhD thesis contains three main chapters on macro finance, with a focus on the term structure of interest rates and the applications of state-of-the-art Bayesian econometrics. Except for Chapter 1 and Chapter 5, which set out the general introduction and conclusion, each of the chapters can be considered as a standalone piece of work. In Chapter 2, we model and predict the term structure of US interest rates in a data rich environment. We allow the model dimension and parameters to change over time, accounting for model uncertainty and sudden structural changes. The proposed time-varying parameter Nelson-Siegel Dynamic Model Averaging (DMA) predicts yields better than standard benchmarks. DMA performs better since it incorporates more macro-finance information during recessions. The proposed method allows us to estimate plausible real-time term premia, whose countercyclicality weakened during the financial crisis. Chapter 3 investigates global term structure dynamics using a Bayesian hierarchical factor model augmented with macroeconomic fundamentals. More than half of the variation in the bond yields of seven advanced economies is due to global co-movement. Our results suggest that global inflation is the most important factor among global macro fundamentals. Non-fundamental factors are essential in driving global co-movements, and are closely related to sentiment and economic uncertainty. Lastly, we analyze asymmetric spillovers in global bond markets connected to diverging monetary policies. Chapter 4 proposes a no-arbitrage framework of term structure modeling with learning and model uncertainty. The representative agent considers parameter instability, as well as the uncertainty in learning speed and model restrictions. The empirical evidence shows that apart from observational variance, parameter instability is the dominant source of predictive variance when compared with uncertainty in learning speed or model restrictions. When accounting for ambiguity aversion, the out-of-sample predictability of excess returns implied by the learning model can be translated into significant and consistent economic gains over the Expectations Hypothesis benchmark.

INTELLECTUAL PROPERTY AND UNIVERSALITY OF READING: CONFLICT OF INTEREST?

It seeks to clarify the issue about the relationship between intellectual property and universality of reading, to understand if it exists or not a conflict of interest. From a synchronic axis crossing, historical, with a diachronic axis, of philosophical: is tracked to explain the deep forces that have shaped the problem arises here. It also explains the legal issue of copyright and property which is closely related to the issue treated here. From all this it follows that underlie the problem of intellectual property is the construction of the Western historical figure of subjectivity, which has led to the role of "author." The author who is credited with authorship of a speech only (work) is a product of social discourse situation that historically has been obscured what has contributed the legal apparatus that protects copyright. What has led to the establishment of an antagonism to the universality of reading. In this paper therefore has not sought to respond to the problem but to make it clear to potential solutions.

Map of New York, places of interest and general information concerning the city /

Shows subways, elevated lines, and streetcar lines in Manhattan south of 120th Street.

Variation, correlation and heritability of interest characters for selection of African eggplant

The eggplant ( Solanum aethiopicum ) is the species of the Solanum genus, whose geographical distribution is broadest. It is grown throughout tropical Africa, and includes three groups of cultivars commonly called African or indigenous eggplant. Kumba group or “bitter eggplant” is an important Solanaceous vegetable crop in Burkina Faso. The objective of this study was to determine genetic variability, strength of association and level of heritability among agronomic interest traits. Phenotypic and genotypic variations and heritability of 14 traits were estimated in 61 accessions at Institut de Développement Rural (IDR), Gampela in Burkina Faso. High phenotypic and genotypic coefficients of variation were observed for fruit diameter, number of seeds per fruit, fruit weight, leaf blade length and width, and height at flowering. In addition, genetic and phenotypic variances were high for the number of seed, fruit weight, plant height at flowering and days to 50% flowering. High heritability estimates were recorded for all traits. Fruit weight showed a positive association with fruit diameter and thickness. The fifty percent flowering cycle registered positive correlations with plant height and fruit diameter. Fruit number showed a negative association with fruit weight and diameter, and 50% flowering cyle.

IDENTITY, IMMORTALITY, INTERACTION: FEMALE FUNERARY MONUMENTS AS SITES OF IDENTITY BUILDING IN THE ROMAN EMPIRE

As final markers of identity and memory, the tombs of Roman women carried ritual, ideological, and emotional significance. By surveying the funerary monuments of four distinct Roman women, it is possible to reconstruct, at least in part, the exhibited identities of Eumachia, Naevoleia Tyche, Faustina the Elder, Claudia, Amymone, and Postumia Matronilla. Drawing in the viewer to participate in the creation of identity through narrative and contextual relationships, each of the sepulchers solidifies the memories of the deceased women, thereby granting them an immortality of sorts. Engaging with issues of gender, status, the politics of self, propaganda, and regional variation, this paper seeks to explore the nuances of life, death, and identity in the Roman world, with an emphasis on understanding the monuments in their original contexts.

Conflicts of interest in dermatology

Conflicts of interest exist in dermatology when professional judgement concerning a primary interest, such as research validity, may be influenced by a secondary interest, such as financial gain from a for-profit organization. Conflict of interest is a condition and not a behaviour, although there is clear evidence that gifts influence behaviour. Little has been written about conflicts of interest in dermatology. This series of papers raises awareness of the subject by exploring it in greater depth from the perspective of a dermatology researcher, an industry researcher, a dermatology journal editor, a health services researcher and a patient representative. Collectively, they illustrate the many ways in which conflicts can pervade the world of dermatology publications and patient support group activities.

Method of numerical correction of errors occasioned by delay of records during the monitoring of environmental variables of interest for animal production

As condições de ambiente térmico e aéreo, no interior de instalações para animais, alteram-se durante o dia, devido à influência do ambiente externo. Para que análises estatísticas e geoestatísticas sejam representativas, uma grande quantidade de pontos distribuídos espacialmente na área da instalação deve ser monitorada. Este trabalho propõe que a variação no tempo das variáveis ambientais de interesse para a produção animal, monitoradas no interior de instalações para animais, pode ser modelada com precisão a partir de registros discretos no tempo. O objetivo deste trabalho foi desenvolver um método numérico para corrigir as variações temporais dessas variáveis ambientais, transformando os dados para que tais observações independam do tempo gasto durante a aferição. O método proposto aproximou os valores registrados com retardos de tempo aos esperados no exato momento de interesse, caso os dados fossem medidos simultaneamente neste momento em todos os pontos distribuídos espacialmente. O modelo de correção numérica para variáveis ambientais foi validado para o parâmetro ambiental temperatura do ar, sendo que os valores corrigidos pelo método não diferiram pelo teste Tukey, a 5% de probabilidade dos valores reais registrados por meio de dataloggers.

Ecotoxicological assessment of sediments from the Port of Santos and the disposal sites of dredged material

A dragagem dos sedimentos do Canal de Santos é necessária para permitir o trânsito de navios que operam no Porto de Santos. As áreas de disposição do material dragado estão situadas na zona costeira, em frente à Baía de Santos. Este estudo visou avaliar a qualidade dos sedimentos do Canal de Santos e das áreas de disposição atuais e antigas, utilizando testes de toxicidade de sedimento integral com anfípodos e de toxicidade de elutriatos com embriões de ouriço do mar. As amostras do Canal de Santos foram consideradas as mais tóxicas: todas as amostras dessa área foram consideradas significativamente tóxicas. Além disso, algumas amostras das áreas de disposição exibiram toxicidade. Os resultados mostraram, portanto, que os sedimentos apresentam evidências de degradação em sua qualidade, porém novos estudos devem ser conduzidos visando determinar as relações entre contaminação e toxicidade. Os resultados sugerem ainda que a disposição dos sedimentos dragados deva ser reavaliada.

The Herpesvirus Nuclear Egress Complex Component, UL31, is Recruited to Sites of DNA Damage Through Poly(ADP-RIBOSE) Binding

Thesis (Master, Biomedical & Molecular Sciences) -- Queen's University, 2016-08-23 15:03:30.807

The census of Iowa, as returned in the year 1873 : showing, in detail, the population, agricultural statistics, and other items of interest / published under direction of the Executive Council, 1874

This is the Census of Iowa as returned in the year 1873, showing in detail, the population, agricultural statistics, and other items of interest

Approches arthroscopiques et description de l'anatomie articulaire normale du carpe et du tarse chez le bovin adulte

Les approches arthroscopiques et l’anatomie normale des articulations antébrachiocarpienne, carpienne moyenne et tarsocrurale n’ont jamais été décrites spécifiquement chez les bovins. Notre étude avait pour buts de définir les abords chirurgicaux et de décrire l’anatomie arthroscopique de ces trois articulations. Deux carpes et deux tarses issus du cadavre frais d’une vache adulte ont été injectés avec un mélange de latex, puis disséqués afin de déterminer les sites arthroscopiques d’intérêt. Par la suite, l’arthroscopie des articulations antébrachiocarpienne et carpienne moyenne (approche dorsale) et de l’articulation tarsocrurale (approches dorsale et plantaire) a été réalisée sur six cadavres frais de vaches adultes ne présentant ni boiterie ni distension articulaire avant leur euthanasie. Les approches dorsolatérale et dorsomédiale des articulations antébrachiocarpienne et carpienne moyenne ont été réalisées de part et d’autre de l’extenseur radial du carpe. Les structures observées étaient le radius distal, les os radial, intermédiaire, ulnaire, II et III fusionnés et IV du carpe, ainsi que des ligaments palmaires. Les approches dorsolatérale et dorsomédiale de l’articulation tarsocrurale ont été réalisées latéralement au long extenseur des doigts et médialement au troisième péronier respectivement. Les approches plantarolatérale et plantaromédiale ont été réalisées latéralement au fléchisseur latéral des doigts et latéralement au fléchisseur médial des doigts respectivement. Les structures observées étaient le tibia distal, les trochlées proximale et plantaire du talus, le processus coracoïde du calcanéus, l’articulation fibulo-calcanéenne et des ligaments articulaires. Quelle que soit l’articulation, l’approche latérale était préférée à l’approche médiale. L’arthroscopie du carpe et du tarse pourra être proposée dans un contexte hospitalier comme outil diagnostique, thérapeutique et pronostique des maladies articulaires bovines.

Levantamento e caracterização dos atrativos naturais da Bacia do Rio Passa Cinco, através de geoprocessamento

Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)