Differential predictors of acute post-surgical pain intensity after abdominal hysterectomy and major joint arthroplasty

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Transmission and progression to disease of Mycobacterium tuberculosis phylogenetic lineages in The Netherlands

The aim of this study was to determine if mycobacterial lineages affect infection risk, clustering, and disease progression among Mycobacterium tuberculosis cases in The Netherlands. Multivariate negative binomial regression models adjusted for patient-related factors and stratified by patient ethnicity were used to determine the association between phylogenetic lineages and infectivity (mean number of positive contacts around each patient) and clustering (as defined by number of secondary cases within 2 years after diagnosis of an index case sharing the same fingerprint) indices. An estimate of progression to disease by each risk factor was calculated as a bootstrapped risk ratio of the clustering index by the infectivity index. Compared to the Euro-American reference, Mycobacterium africanum showed significantly lower infectivity and clustering indices in the foreign-born population, while Mycobacterium bovis showed significantly lower infectivity and clustering indices in the native population. Significantly lower infectivity was also observed for the East African Indian lineage in the foreign-born population. Smear positivity was a significant risk factor for increased infectivity and increased clustering. Estimates of progression to disease were significantly associated with age, sputum-smear status, and behavioral risk factors, such as alcohol and intravenous drug abuse, but not with phylogenetic lineages. In conclusion, we found evidence of a bacteriological factor influencing indicators of a strain's transmissibility, namely, a decreased ability to infect and a lower clustering index in ancient phylogenetic lineages compared to their modern counterparts. Confirmation of these findings via follow-up studies using tuberculin skin test conversion data should have important implications on M. tuberculosis control efforts.

Difference in the in-hospital mortality of unstable angina pectoris between men and women

PURPOSE: To assess differences in the in-hospital mortality (HM) rate between men and women with unstable angina pectoris (UA) according to age, depression of the ST segment, history of previous acute myocardial infarction (AMI), and risk factors for coronary heart disease. METHODS: From October 96 to March 98, 261 patients with UA were selected. Logistic regression models were developed to adjust the association between sex and HM for possible influence of covariables, such as hypertension, diabetes mellitus, dyslipidemia, sedentary lifestyle, smoking, and familial history of early coronary heart disease. RESULTS: HM due to UA was approximately three times higher in women (9.3%; 12/129) than in men (3.0%; 4/132) accounting for a relative risk of 3.07; 95% confidence interval (CI) =1.02-9.27. In logistic regression models, the association between sex and death was not significantly altered when the following parameters were considered: age, depression of the ST segment, history of previous AMI and risk factors for coronary heart disease. The nonadjusted and adjusted odds ratio (OR) for the distinct covariables were 3.28 (CI 95%=1.03-10.45) and 3.14 (CI = 95% = 0.88-11.20), respectively. CONCLUSION: Similarly to AMI, HM in UA is higher in women than in men. Age, risk factors for coronary heart disease, and depression of the ST segment in the electrocardiogram on patients' admission to the hospital did not significantly influence the association between sex and death.

Modelos de regressão multinível no estudo do desempenho escolar

Dissertação de mestrado em Estatística

Electronic tongue: a versatile tool for mineral and fruit-flavored waters recognition

Natural mineral waters (still), effervescent natural mineral waters (sparkling) and aromatized waters with fruit-flavors (still or sparkling) are an emerging market. In this work, the capability of a potentiometric electronic tongue, comprised with lipid polymeric membranes, to quantitatively estimate routinely quality physicochemical parameters (pH and conductivity) as well as to qualitatively classify water samples according to the type of water was evaluated. The study showed that a linear discriminant model, based on 21 sensors selected by the simulated annealing algorithm, could correctly classify 100 % of the water samples (leave-one out cross-validation). This potential was further demonstrated by applying a repeated K-fold cross-validation (guaranteeing that at least 15 % of independent samples were only used for internal-validation) for which 96 % of correct classifications were attained. The satisfactory recognition performance of the E-tongue could be attributed to the pH, conductivity, sugars and organic acids contents of the studied waters, which turned out in significant differences of sweetness perception indexes and total acid flavor. Moreover, the E-tongue combined with multivariate linear regression models, based on sub-sets of sensors selected by the simulated annealing algorithm, could accurately estimate waters pH (25 sensors: R 2 equal to 0.99 and 0.97 for leave-one-out or repeated K-folds cross-validation) and conductivity (23 sensors: R 2 equal to 0.997 and 0.99 for leave-one-out or repeated K-folds cross-validation). So, the overall satisfactory results achieved, allow envisaging a potential future application of electronic tongue devices for bottled water analysis and classification.

Investigation into the potential for establishing a self-sustainable wetland ecosystem over pyritic mine tailings

Research was conducted to investigate the potential for ecologically engineering a sustainable wetland ecosystem over pyritic mine tailings to prevent the generation of acid mine drainage. Ecological engineering is technology with the primary goal being the creation of self-sustainable ecological systems. Work involved the design and construction of a pilot-scale wetland system comprising three wetland cells, each covering 100 m2. Approximately forty tonnes of pyritic mine tailings were deposited on the base of the first cell above a synthetic liner, covered with peat, flooded and planted with emergent wetland macrophytes Typha latifolia, Phragmites australis, and Juncus effusus. The second cell was constructed as a conventional free water surface wetland, planted identically, and used as a reference wetland/experimental control. Wetland monitoring to determine long-term sustainability focused on indicators of ecosystem health including ecological, hydrological, physico-chemical, geochemical, and biotic metrics. An integrated assessment was conducted that involved field ecology in addition to ecological risk assessment. The objective of the field ecology study was to use vegetative parameters as ecological indicators for documenting wetlands success or degradation. The goal of the risk assessment was to determine if heavy-metal contamination of the wetland sediments occurred through metal mobilisation from the underlying tailings, and to evaluate if subsequent water column chemistry and biotic metal concentrations were significantly correlated with adverse wetland ecosystem impacts. Data were used to assess heavy metal bioavailability within the system as a function of metal speciation in the wetland sediments. Results indicate hydrology is the most important variable in the design and establishment of the tailings wetland and suggest a wetland cover is an ecologically viable alternative for pyritic tailings which are feasible to flood. Ecological data indicate that in terms of species richness and diversity, the tailings-wetland was exhibiting the ecological characteristics of natural wetlands within two years. Ata indicate that pH and conductivity in the tailings-wetland were not adversely impacted by the acid-generating potential or sulphate concentration of the tailings substrate and its porewater. Similarly, no enhanced seasonal impacts from sulphate or metals in the water column, nor adverse impacts on the final water quality of the outflows, were detected. Mean total metal concentrations in the sediments of the tailings-wetland indicate no significant adverse mobilisation of metals into the peat substrate from the tailings. Correlation analyses indicate a general increase in sediment metal concentration in this wetland with increasing water depth and pH, and a corresponding decrease in the metal concentrations of the water column. Sediment extractions also showed enrichment of Cd, Fe, Pb and Zn in the oxidisable fraction (including sulphides and organic matter) of the tailings-wetland sediments. These data suggest that adsorption and coprecipitation of metals is occurring from the water column of the tailings wetland with organic material at increasing depths under reducing conditions. The long-term control of metal bioavailability in the tailings wetland will likely be related to the presence and continual build-up of organic carbon binding sites in the developing wetland above the tailings. Metal speciation including free-metal ion concentration and the impact of physico-chemical parameters particularly pH and organic matter, were investigated to assess ecotoxicological risk. Results indicate that potentially bioavailable metals (the sum of the exchangeable and reducible fractions) within the tailings wetland are similar to values cited for natural wetlands. Estimated free-metal ion concentrations calculated from geochemical regression models indicate lower free-metal ion concentrations of Cd in the tailings wetland than natural wetlands and slightly higher free-metal ion concentrations of Pb and Zn. Increased concentrations of metals in roots, rhizomes and stems of emergent macrophytes did not occur in the tailings wetland. Even though a substantial number of Typha latifolia plants were found rooting directly into tailings, elevated metals were not found in these plant tissues. Phragmites also did not exhibit elevated metal concentrations in any plant tissues. Typha and Phragmites populations appear to be exhibiting metal-tolerant behaviour. The chemistry of the water column and sediments in Silvermines wetland were also investigated and were much more indicative of a wetland system impacted by heavy metal contamination than the tailings-wetland. Mean Dc, Fe, Mn, Pb and Zn concentrations in the water column and sediments of Silvermines wetlands were substantially higher than in the pilot wetlands and closely approximate concentrations in these matrices contaminated with metals from mining. In addition, mean sulphate concentration in Silvermines wetland was substantially higher and is closer to sulphate concentrations in waters associated with mining. Potentially bioavailable metals were substantially elevated in Silvermines wetland in comparison to the pilot wetlands and higher than those calculated for natural rive sediments. However, Fe oxy-hydroxide concentrations in Silvermines sediments are also much higher than in the pilot wetlands and this significantly impacts the concentration of free-metal ions in the sediment porewater. The free-metal ion concentrations for Pb and Zn indicate that Silvermines wetland is retaining metals and acting as a treatment wetland for drainage emanating from Silvermines tailings dam.

Validation of the Killip-Kimball Classification and Late Mortality after Acute Myocardial Infarction

Background: The classification or index of heart failure severity in patients with acute myocardial infarction (AMI) was proposed by Killip and Kimball aiming at assessing the risk of in-hospital death and the potential benefit of specific management of care provided in Coronary Care Units (CCU) during the decade of 60. Objective: To validate the risk stratification of Killip classification in the long-term mortality and compare the prognostic value in patients with non-ST-segment elevation MI (NSTEMI) relative to patients with ST-segment elevation MI (STEMI), in the era of reperfusion and modern antithrombotic therapies. Methods: We evaluated 1906 patients with documented AMI and admitted to the CCU, from 1995 to 2011, with a mean follow-up of 05 years to assess total mortality. Kaplan-Meier (KM) curves were developed for comparison between survival distributions according to Killip class and NSTEMI versus STEMI. Cox proportional regression models were developed to determine the independent association between Killip class and mortality, with sensitivity analyses based on type of AMI. Results: The proportions of deaths and the KM survival distributions were significantly different across Killip class >1 (p <0.001) and with a similar pattern between patients with NSTEMI and STEMI. Cox models identified the Killip classification as a significant, sustained, consistent predictor and independent of relevant covariables (Wald χ2 16.5 [p = 0.001], NSTEMI) and (Wald χ2 11.9 [p = 0.008], STEMI). Conclusion: The Killip and Kimball classification performs relevant prognostic role in mortality at mean follow-up of 05 years post-AMI, with a similar pattern between NSTEMI and STEMI patients.

Cardiovascular Research Publications from Latin America between 1999 and 2008. A Bibliometric Study

Background:Cardiovascular research publications seem to be increasing in Latin America overall.Objective:To analyze trends in cardiovascular publications and their citations from countries in Latin America between 1999 and 2008, and to compare them with those from the rest of the countries.Methods:We retrieved references of cardiovascular publications between 1999 and 2008 and their five-year post-publication citations from the Web of Knowledge database. For countries in Latin America, we calculated the total number of publications and their citation indices (total citations divided by number of publications) by year. We analyzed trends on publications and citation indices over time using Poisson regression models. The analysis was repeated for Latin America as a region, and compared with that for the rest of the countries grouped according to economic development.Results:Brazil (n = 6,132) had the highest number of publications in1999-2008, followed by Argentina (n = 1,686), Mexico (n = 1,368) and Chile (n = 874). Most countries showed an increase in publications over time, leaded by Guatemala (36.5% annually [95%CI: 16.7%-59.7%]), Colombia (22.1% [16.3%-28.2%]), Costa Rica (18.1% [8.1%-28.9%]) and Brazil (17.9% [16.9%-19.1%]). However, trends on citation indices varied widely (from -33.8% to 28.4%). From 1999 to 2008, cardiovascular publications of Latin America increased by 12.9% (12.1%-13.5%) annually. However, the citation indices of Latin America increased 1.5% (1.3%-1.7%) annually, a lower increase than those of all other country groups analyzed.Conclusions:Although the number of cardiovascular publications of Latin America increased from 1999 to 2008, trends on citation indices suggest they may have had a relatively low impact on the research field, stressing the importance of considering quality and dissemination on local research policies.

Metabolic Syndrome and Importance of Associated Variables in Children and Adolescents in Guabiruba - SC, Brazil

Background:The risk factors that characterize metabolic syndrome (MetS) may be present in childhood and adolescence, increasing the risk of cardiovascular disease in adulthood.Objective:Evaluate the prevalence of MetS and the importance of its associated variables, including insulin resistance (IR), in children and adolescents in the city of Guabiruba-SC, Brazil.Methods:Cross-sectional study with 1011 students (6–14 years, 52.4% girls, 58.5% children). Blood samples were collected for measurement of biochemical parameters by routine laboratory methods. IR was estimated by the HOMA-IR index, and weight, height, waist circumference and blood pressure were determined. Multivariate logistic regression models were used to examine the associations between risk variables and MetS.Results:The prevalence of MetS, IR, overweight and obesity in the cohort were 14%, 8.5%, 21% and 13%, respectively. Among students with MetS, 27% had IR, 33% were overweight, 45.5% were obese and 22% were eutrophic. IR was more common in overweight (48%) and obese (41%) students when compared with eutrophic individuals (11%; p = 0.034). The variables with greatest influence on the development of MetS were obesity (OR = 32.7), overweight (OR = 6.1), IR (OR = 4.4; p ≤ 0.0001 for all) and age (OR = 1.15; p = 0.014).Conclusion:There was a high prevalence of MetS in children and adolescents evaluated in this study. Students who were obese, overweight or insulin resistant had higher chances of developing the syndrome.

One-year Mortality after an Acute Coronary Event and its Clinical Predictors: The ERICO Study

Background:Information about post-acute coronary syndrome (ACS) survival have been mostly short-term findings or based on specialized, cardiology referral centers.Objectives:To describe one-year case-fatality rates in the Strategy of Registry of Acute Coronary Syndrome (ERICO) cohort, and to study baseline characteristics as predictors.Methods:We analyzed data from 964 ERICO participants enrolled from February 2009 to December 2012. We assessed vital status by telephone contact and official death certificate searches. The cause of death was determined according to the official death certificates. We used log-rank tests to compare the probabilities of survival across subgroups. We built crude and adjusted (for age, sex and ACS subtype) Cox regression models to study if the ACS subtype or baseline characteristics were independent predictors of all-cause or cardiovascular mortality.Results:We identified 110 deaths in the cohort (case-fatality rate, 12.0%). Age [Hazard ratio (HR) = 2.04 per 10 year increase; 95% confidence interval (95%CI) = 1.75–2.38], non-ST elevation myocardial infarction (HR = 3.82 ; 95%CI = 2.21–6.60) or ST elevation myocardial infarction (HR = 2.59; 95%CI = 1.38–4.89) diagnoses, and diabetes (HR = 1.78; 95%CI = 1.20‑2.63) were significant risk factors for all-cause mortality in the adjusted models. We found similar results for cardiovascular mortality. A previous coronary artery disease diagnosis was also an independent predictor of all-cause mortality (HR = 1.61; 95%CI = 1.04–2.50), but not for cardiovascular mortality.Conclusion:We found an overall one-year mortality rate of 12.0% in a sample of post-ACS patients in a community, non-specialized hospital in São Paulo, Brazil. Age, ACS subtype, and diabetes were independent predictors of poor one‑year survival for overall and cardiovascular-related causes.

Role Of MMP-2 and MMP-9 in Resistance to Drug Therapy in Patients with Resistant Hypertension

AbstractBackground:Despite the increased evidence of the important role of matrix metalloproteinases (MMP-9 and MMP‑2) in the pathophysiology of hypertension, the profile of these molecules in resistant hypertension (RHTN) remains unknown.Objectives:To compare the plasma levels of MMP-9 and MMP-2 and of their tissue inhibitors (TIMP-1 and TIMP-2, respectively), as well as their MMP-9/TIMP-1 and MMP-2/TIMP-2 ratios, between patients with controlled RHTN (CRHTN, n=41) and uncontrolled RHTN (UCRHTN, n=35). In addition, the association of those parameters with clinical characteristics, office blood pressure (BP) and arterial stiffness (determined by pulse wave velocity) was evaluate in those subgroups.Methods:This study included 76 individuals diagnosed with RHTN and submitted to physical examination, electrocardiogram, and laboratory tests to assess biochemical parameters.Results:Similar values of MMP-9, MMP-2, TIMP-1, TIMP-2, and MMP-9/TIMP-1 and MMP-2/TIMP-2 ratios were found in the UCRHTN and CRHTN subgroups (P>0.05). A significant correlation was found between diastolic BP (DBP) and MMP-9/TIMP-1 ratio (r=0.37; P=0.02) and DPB and MMP-2 (r=-0.40; P=0.02) in the UCRHTN subgroup. On the other hand, no correlation was observed in the CRHTN subgroup. Logistic regression models demonstrated that MMP-9, MMP-2, TIMP-1, TIMP-2 and their ratios were not associated with the lack of BP control.Conclusion:These findings suggest that neither MMP-2 nor MMP-9 affect BP control in RHTN subjects.

Prevalence of Risk for Obstructive Sleep Apnea Syndrome and Association With Risk Factors in Primary Care

Abstract Background: Obstructive sleep apnea syndrome (OSAS) is a chronic, progressive disease with high morbidity and mortality. It is underdiagnosed, especially among women. Objective: To study the prevalence of high risk for OSAS globally and for the Berlin Questionnaire (BQ) categories, and to evaluate the reliability of the BQ use in the population studied. Methods: Observational, cross-sectional study with individuals from the Niterói Family Doctor Program, randomly selected, aged between 45 and 99 years. The visits occurred between August/2011 and December/2012. Variables associated with each BQ category and with high risk for OSAS (global) were included in logistic regression models (p < 0.05). Results: Of the total (616), 403 individuals (65.4%) reported snoring. The prevalence of high risk for OSA was 42.4%, being 49.7% for category I, 10.2% for category II and 77.6% for category III. Conclusion: BQ showed an acceptable reliability after excluding the questions Has anyone noticed that you stop breathing during your sleep? and Have you ever dozed off or fallen asleep while driving?. This should be tested in further studies with samples mostly comprised of women and low educational level individuals. Given the burden of OSAS-related diseases and risks, studies should be conducted to validate new tools and to adapt BQ to better screen OSAS.

Association between Spirituality and Adherence to Management in Outpatients with Heart Failure

Abstract Background: Spirituality may influence how patients cope with their illness. Objectives: We assessed whether spirituality may influence adherence to management of outpatients with heart failure. Methods: Cross sectional study enrolling consecutive ambulatory heart failure patients in whom adherence to multidisciplinary treatment was evaluated. Patients were assessed for quality of life, depression, religiosity and spirituality utilizing validated questionnaires. Correlations between adherence and psychosocial variables of interest were obtained. Logistic regression models explored independent predictors of adherence. Results: One hundred and thirty patients (age 60 ± 13 years; 67% male) were interviewed. Adequate adherence score was observed in 38.5% of the patients. Neither depression nor religiosity was correlated to adherence, when assessed separately. Interestingly, spirituality, when assessed by both total score sum (r = 0.26; p = 0.003) and by all specific domains, was positively correlated to adherence. Finally, the combination of spirituality, religiosity and personal beliefs was an independent predictor of adherence when adjusted for demographics, clinical characteristics and psychosocial instruments. Conclusion: Spirituality, religiosity and personal beliefs were the only variables consistently associated with compliance to medication in a cohort of outpatients with heart failure. Our data suggest that adequately addressing these aspects on patient’s care may lead to an improvement in adherence patterns in the complex heart failure management.

Assessing the structural change of strategic mobility: determinants under hypercompetitive environments

The primary purpose of this exploratory empirical study is to examine the structural stability of a limited number of alternative explanatory factors of strategic change. On the basis of theoretical arguments and prior empirical evidence from two traditional perspectives, we propose an original empirical framework to analyse whether these potential explanatory factors have remained stable over time in a highly turbulent environment. This original question is explored in a particular setting: the population of Spanish private banks. The firms of this industry have experienced a high level of strategic mobility as a consequence of fundamental changes undergone in their environmental conditions over the last two decades (mainly changes related to the new banking and financial regulation process). Our results consistently support that the effect of most explanatory factors of strategic mobility considered did not remain stable over the whole period of analysis. From this point of view, the study sheds new light on major debates and dilemmas in the field of strategy regarding why firms change their competitive patterns over time and, hence, to what extent the "contextdependency" of alternative views of strategic change as their relative validation can vary over time for a given population. Methodologically, this research makes two major contributions to the study of potential determinants of strategic change. First, the definition and measurement of strategic change employing a new grouping method, the Model-based Cluster Method or MCLUST. Second, in order to asses the possible effect of determinants of strategic mobility we have controlled the non-observable heterogeneity using logistic regression models for panel data.

Locations and Relocations:Modelling, Determinants, and Interrelations

Empirical studies on industrial location do not typically distinguish between new and relocated establishments. This paper addresses this shortcoming using data on the frequency of these events in municipalities of the same economic-administrative region. This enables us to test not only for differences in their determinants but also for interrelations between start-ups and relocations. Estimates from count regression models for cross-section and panel data show that, although partial effects differ, common patterns arise in “institutional” and “neoclassical” explanatory factors. Also, start-ups and relocations are positive but asymmetrically related. JEL classification: C25, R30, R10. Keywords: cities, count data models, industrial location