909 resultados para Nonparametric Bayes
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Introduction: Neuroimaging of the self focused on high-level mechanisms such as language, memory or imagery of the self. Recent evidence suggests that low-level mechanisms of multisensory and sensorimotor integration may play a fundamental role in encoding self-location and the first-person perspective (Blanke and Metzinger, 2009). Neurological patients with out-of body experiences (OBE) suffer from abnormal self-location and the first-person perspective due to a damage in the temporo-parietal junction (Blanke et al., 2004). Although self-location and the first-person perspective can be studied experimentally (Lenggenhager et al., 2009), the neural underpinnings of self-location have yet to be investigated. To investigate the brain network involved in self-location and first-person perspective we used visuo-tactile multisensory conflict, magnetic resonance (MR)-compatible robotics, and fMRI in study 1, and lesion analysis in a sample of 9 patients with OBE due to focal brain damage in study 2. Methods: Twenty-two participants saw a video showing either a person's back or an empty room being stroked (visual stimuli) while the MR-compatible robotic device stroked their back (tactile stimulation). Direction and speed of the seen stroking could either correspond (synchronous) or not (asynchronous) to those of the seen stroking. Each run comprised the four conditions according to a 2x2 factorial design with Object (Body, No-Body) and Synchrony (Synchronous, Asynchronous) as main factors. Self-location was estimated using the mental ball dropping (MBD; Lenggenhager et al., 2009). After the fMRI session participants completed a 6-item adapted from the original questionnaire created by Botvinick and Cohen (1998) and based on questions and data obtained by Lenggenhager et al. (2007, 2009). They were also asked to complete a questionnaire to disclose the perspective they adopted during the illusion. Response times (RTs) for the MBD and fMRI data were analyzed with a 3-way mixed model ANOVA with the in-between factor Perspective (up, down) and the two with-in factors Object (body, no-body) and Stroking (synchronous, asynchronous). Quantitative lesion analysis was performed using MRIcron (Rorden et al., 2007). We compared the distributions of brain lesions confirmed by multimodality imaging (Knowlton, 2004) in patients with OBE with those showing complex visual hallucinations involving people or faces, but without any disturbance of self-location and first person perspective. Nine patients with OBE were investigated. The control group comprised 8 patients. Structural imaging data were available for normalization and co-registration in all the patients. Normalization of each patient's lesion into the common MNI (Montreal Neurological Institute) reference space permitted simple, voxel-wise, algebraic comparisons to be made. Results: Even if in the scanner all participants were lying on their back and were facing upwards, analysis of perspective showed that half of the participants had the impression to be looking down at the virtual human body below them, despite any cues about their body position (Down-group). The other participants had the impression to be looking up at the virtual body above them (Up-group). Analysis of Q3 ("How strong was the feeling that the body you saw was you?") indicated stronger self-identification with the virtual body during the synchronous stroking. RTs in the MBD task confirmed these subjective data (significant 3-way interaction between perspective, object and stroking). fMRI results showed eight cortical regions where the BOLD signal was significantly different during at least one of the conditions resulting from the combination of Object and Stroking, relative to baseline: right and left temporo-parietal junction, right EBA, left middle occipito-temporal gyrus, left postcentral gyrus, right medial parietal lobe, bilateral medial occipital lobe (Fig 1). The activation patterns in right and left temporo-parietal junction and right EBA reflected changes in self-location and perspective as revealed by statistical analysis that was performed on the percentage of BOLD change with respect to the baseline. Statistical lesion overlap comparison (using nonparametric voxel based lesion symptom mapping) with respect to the control group revealed the right temporo-parietal junction, centered at the angular gyrus (Talairach coordinates x = 54, y =-52, z = 26; p>0.05, FDR corrected). Conclusions: The present questionnaire and behavioural results show that - despite the noisy and constraining MR environment) our participants had predictable changes in self-location, self-identification, and first-person perspective when robotic tactile stroking was applied synchronously with the robotic visual stroking. fMRI data in healthy participants and lesion data in patients with abnormal self-location and first-person perspective jointly revealed that the temporo-parietal cortex especially in the right hemisphere encodes these conscious experiences. We argue that temporo-parietal activity reflects the experience of the conscious "I" as embodied and localized within bodily space.
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BACKGROUND: HIV treatment recommendations are updated as clinical trials are published. Whether recommendations drive clinicians to change antiretroviral therapy in well-controlled patients is unexplored. METHODS: We selected patients with undetectable viral loads (VLs) on nonrecommended regimens containing double-boosted protease inhibitors (DBPIs), triple-nucleoside reverse transcriptase inhibitors (NRTIs), or didanosine (ddI) plus stavudine (d4T) at publication of the 2006 International AIDS Society recommendations. We compared demographic and clinical characteristics with those of control patients with undetectable VL not on these regimens and examined clinical outcome and reasons for treatment modification. RESULTS: At inclusion, 104 patients were in the DBPI group, 436 in the triple-NRTI group, and 19 in the ddI/d4T group. By 2010, 28 (29%), 204 (52%), and 1 (5%) patient were still on DBPIs, triple-NRTIs, and ddI plus d4T, respectively. 'Physician decision,' excluding toxicity/virological failure, drove 30% of treatment changes. Predictors of recommendation nonobservance included female sex [adjusted odds ratio (aOR) 2.69, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1 to 7.26; P = 0.01] for DPBIs, and undetectable VL (aOR 3.53, 95% CI 1.6 to 7.8; P = 0.002) and lack of cardiovascular events (aOR 2.93, 95% CI 1.23 to 6.97; P = 0.02) for triple-NRTIs. All patients on DBPIs with documented diabetes or a cardiovascular event changed treatment. Recommendation observance resulted in lower cholesterol values in the DBPI group (P = 0.06), and more patients having undetectable VL (P = 0.02) in the triple-NRTI group. CONCLUSION: The physician's decision is the main factor driving change from nonrecommended to recommended regimens, whereas virological suppression is associated with not switching. Positive clinical outcomes observed postswitch underline the importance of observing recommendations, even in well-controlled patients.
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In rodents and nonhuman primates subjected to spinal cord lesion, neutralizing the neurite growth inhibitor Nogo-A has been shown to promote regenerative axonal sprouting and functional recovery. The goal of the present report was to re-examine the data on the recovery of the primate manual dexterity using refined behavioral analyses and further statistical assessments, representing secondary outcome measures from the same manual dexterity test. Thirteen adult monkeys were studied; seven received an anti-Nogo-A antibody whereas a control antibody was infused into the other monkeys. Monkeys were trained to perform the modified Brinkman board task requiring opposition of index finger and thumb to grasp food pellets placed in vertically and horizontally oriented slots. Two parameters were quantified before and following spinal cord injury: (i) the standard 'score' as defined by the number of pellets retrieved within 30 s from the two types of slots; (ii) the newly introduced 'contact time' as defined by the duration of digit contact with the food pellet before successful retrieval. After lesion the hand was severely impaired in all monkeys; this was followed by progressive functional recovery. Remarkably, anti-Nogo-A antibody-treated monkeys recovered faster and significantly better than control antibody-treated monkeys, considering both the score for vertical and horizontal slots (Mann-Whitney test: P = 0.05 and 0.035, respectively) and the contact time (P = 0.008 and 0.005, respectively). Detailed analysis of the lesions excluded the possibility that this conclusion may have been caused by differences in lesion properties between the two groups of monkeys.
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Wireless “MIMO” systems, employing multiple transmit and receive antennas, promise a significant increase of channel capacity, while orthogonal frequency-division multiplexing (OFDM) is attracting a good deal of attention due to its robustness to multipath fading. Thus, the combination of both techniques is an attractive proposition for radio transmission. The goal of this paper is the description and analysis of a new and novel pilot-aided estimator of multipath block-fading channels. Typical models leading to estimation algorithms assume the number of multipath components and delays to be constant (and often known), while their amplitudes are allowed to vary with time. Our estimator is focused instead on the more realistic assumption that the number of channel taps is also unknown and varies with time following a known probabilistic model. The estimation problem arising from these assumptions is solved using Random-Set Theory (RST), whereby one regards the multipath-channel response as a single set-valued random entity.Within this framework, Bayesian recursive equations determine the evolution with time of the channel estimator. Due to the lack of a closed form for the solution of Bayesian equations, a (Rao–Blackwellized) particle filter (RBPF) implementation ofthe channel estimator is advocated. Since the resulting estimator exhibits a complexity which grows exponentially with the number of multipath components, a simplified version is also introduced. Simulation results describing the performance of our channel estimator demonstrate its effectiveness.
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This paper presents several algorithms for joint estimation of the target number and state in a time-varying scenario. Building on the results presented in [1], which considers estimation of the target number only, we assume that not only the target number, but also their state evolution must be estimated. In this context, we extend to this new scenario the Rao-Blackwellization procedure of [1] to compute Bayes recursions, thus defining reduced-complexity solutions for the multi-target set estimator. A performance assessmentis finally given both in terms of Circular Position Error Probability - aimed at evaluating the accuracy of the estimated track - and in terms of Cardinality Error Probability, aimed at evaluating the reliability of the target number estimates.
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BACKGROUND: The race- and sex-specific epidemiology of incident heart failure (HF) among a contemporary elderly cohort are not well described. METHODS: We studied 2934 participants without HF enrolled in the Health, Aging, and Body Composition Study (mean [SD] age, 73.6 [2.9] years; 47.9% men; 58.6% white; and 41.4% black) and assessed the incidence of HF, population-attributable risk (PAR) of independent risk factors for HF, and outcomes of incident HF. RESULTS: During a median follow-up of 7.1 years, 258 participants (8.8%) developed HF (13.6 cases per 1000 person-years; 95% confidence interval, 12.1-15.4). Men and black participants were more likely to develop HF. No significant sex-based differences were observed in risk factors. Coronary heart disease (PAR, 23.9% for white participants and 29.5% for black participants) and uncontrolled blood pressure (PAR, 21.3% for white participants and 30.1% for black participants) carried the highest PAR in both races. Among black participants, 6 of 8 risk factors assessed (smoking, increased heart rate, coronary heart disease, left ventricular hypertrophy, uncontrolled blood pressure, and reduced glomerular filtration rate) had more than 5% higher PAR compared with that among white participants, leading to a higher overall proportion of HF attributable to modifiable risk factors in black participants vs white participants (67.8% vs 48.9%). Participants who developed HF had higher annual mortality (18.0% vs 2.7%). No racial difference in survival after HF was noted; however, rehospitalization rates were higher among black participants (62.1 vs 30.3 hospitalizations per 100 person-years, P < .001). CONCLUSIONS: Incident HF is common in older persons; a large proportion of HF risk is attributed to modifiable risk factors. Racial differences in risk factors for HF and in hospitalization rates after HF need to be considered in prevention and treatment efforts.
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Aim Recently developed parametric methods in historical biogeography allow researchers to integrate temporal and palaeogeographical information into the reconstruction of biogeographical scenarios, thus overcoming a known bias of parsimony-based approaches. Here, we compare a parametric method, dispersal-extinction-cladogenesis (DEC), against a parsimony-based method, dispersal-vicariance analysis (DIVA), which does not incorporate branch lengths but accounts for phylogenetic uncertainty through a Bayesian empirical approach (Bayes-DIVA). We analyse the benefits and limitations of each method using the cosmopolitan plant family Sapindaceae as a case study.Location World-wide.Methods Phylogenetic relationships were estimated by Bayesian inference on a large dataset representing generic diversity within Sapindaceae. Lineage divergence times were estimated by penalized likelihood over a sample of trees from the posterior distribution of the phylogeny to account for dating uncertainty in biogeographical reconstructions. We compared biogeographical scenarios between Bayes-DIVA and two different DEC models: one with no geological constraints and another that employed a stratified palaeogeographical model in which dispersal rates were scaled according to area connectivity across four time slices, reflecting the changing continental configuration over the last 110 million years.Results Despite differences in the underlying biogeographical model, Bayes-DIVA and DEC inferred similar biogeographical scenarios. The main differences were: (1) in the timing of dispersal events - which in Bayes-DIVA sometimes conflicts with palaeogeographical information, and (2) in the lower frequency of terminal dispersal events inferred by DEC. Uncertainty in divergence time estimations influenced both the inference of ancestral ranges and the decisiveness with which an area can be assigned to a node.Main conclusions By considering lineage divergence times, the DEC method gives more accurate reconstructions that are in agreement with palaeogeographical evidence. In contrast, Bayes-DIVA showed the highest decisiveness in unequivocally reconstructing ancestral ranges, probably reflecting its ability to integrate phylogenetic uncertainty. Care should be taken in defining the palaeogeographical model in DEC because of the possibility of overestimating the frequency of extinction events, or of inferring ancestral ranges that are outside the extant species ranges, owing to dispersal constraints enforced by the model. The wide-spanning spatial and temporal model proposed here could prove useful for testing large-scale biogeographical patterns in plants.
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The utility of sequencing a second highly variable locus in addition to the spa gene (e.g., double-locus sequence typing [DLST]) was investigated to overcome limitations of a Staphylococcus aureus single-locus typing method. Although adding a second locus seemed to increase discriminatory power, it was not sufficient to definitively infer evolutionary relationships within a single multilocus sequence type (ST-5).
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Six and seven addicts treated with racemic methadone (MTD) were comedicated with fluvoxamine (FLV) and fluoxetine (FLX), respectively. The plasma concentrations of both (R)- (the active enantiomer) and (S)-MTD were increased by FLV, whereas only (R)-MTD concentrations were increased by the addition of FLX. This suggests that cytochrome P450IID6 (CYP2D6), an enzyme that is strongly inhibited by FLX, preferentially metabolizes (R)-MTD, whereas CYP1A2, which is strongly inhibited by FLV, metabolizes both enantiomers. The choice of a selective serotonin reuptake inhibitor in depressive addicted patients treated with MTD and the possible use of FLX or FLV to potentiate the effects of MTD in some cases of therapeutic failure are discussed.
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Testosterone abuse is conventionally assessed by the urinary testosterone/epitestosterone (T/E) ratio, levels above 4.0 being considered suspicious. A deletion polymorphism in the gene coding for UGT2B17 is strongly associated with reduced testosterone glucuronide (TG) levels in urine. Many of the individuals devoid of the gene would not reach a T/E ratio of 4.0 after testosterone intake. Future test programs will most likely shift from population based- to individual-based T/E cut-off ratios using Bayesian inference. A longitudinal analysis is dependent on an individual's true negative baseline T/E ratio. The aim was to investigate whether it is possible to increase the sensitivity and specificity of the T/E test by addition of UGT2B17 genotype information in a Bayesian framework. A single intramuscular dose of 500mg testosterone enanthate was given to 55 healthy male volunteers with either two, one or no allele (ins/ins, ins/del or del/del) of the UGT2B17 gene. Urinary excretion of TG and the T/E ratio was measured during 15 days. The Bayesian analysis was conducted to calculate the individual T/E cut-off ratio. When adding the genotype information, the program returned lower individual cut-off ratios in all del/del subjects increasing the sensitivity of the test considerably. It will be difficult, if not impossible, to discriminate between a true negative baseline T/E value and a false negative one without knowledge of the UGT2B17 genotype. UGT2B17 genotype information is crucial, both to decide which initial cut-off ratio to use for an individual, and for increasing the sensitivity of the Bayesian analysis.
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The safety benefit of signalizing intersections of high-speed divided expressways is considered. Analyses were conducted on 50 and 55 mph and on 55 mph only intersections, comparing unsignalized and signalized intersections. Results of the 55 mph analysis are included in this report. Matched-pair analysis indicates that generally, signalized intersections have higher crash rate but lower costs per crash. On the other hand, before-and-after analysis (intersections signalized between 1994 and 2001) indicates lower crash rates (~30 percent) and total costs (~10 percent) after signalization. Empirical Bayes (EB) adjusted before-and-after analysis reduces estimates of safety benefit (crash rate) to about 20 percent. The study shows how commonly used analyses can differ in their results, and that there is great variability in the safety performance of individual signalized locations. This variability and the effect of EB adjustment are demonstrated through the use of innovative graphics.
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Epidemiological processes leave a fingerprint in the pattern of genetic structure of virus populations. Here, we provide a new method to infer epidemiological parameters directly from viral sequence data. The method is based on phylogenetic analysis using a birth-death model (BDM) rather than the commonly used coalescent as the model for the epidemiological transmission of the pathogen. Using the BDM has the advantage that transmission and death rates are estimated independently and therefore enables for the first time the estimation of the basic reproductive number of the pathogen using only sequence data, without further assumptions like the average duration of infection. We apply the method to genetic data of the HIV-1 epidemic in Switzerland.
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Mathematical methods combined with measurements of single-cell dynamics provide a means to reconstruct intracellular processes that are only partly or indirectly accessible experimentally. To obtain reliable reconstructions, the pooling of measurements from several cells of a clonal population is mandatory. However, cell-to-cell variability originating from diverse sources poses computational challenges for such process reconstruction. We introduce a scalable Bayesian inference framework that properly accounts for population heterogeneity. The method allows inference of inaccessible molecular states and kinetic parameters; computation of Bayes factors for model selection; and dissection of intrinsic, extrinsic and technical noise. We show how additional single-cell readouts such as morphological features can be included in the analysis. We use the method to reconstruct the expression dynamics of a gene under an inducible promoter in yeast from time-lapse microscopy data.
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China’s economic reforms, which began in 1978, resulted in remarkable income growth, and urban Chinese consumers have responded by dramatically increasing their consumption of meat, other livestock products, and fruits and by decreasing consumption of grain-based foods. Economic prosperity, a growing openness to international markets, and domestic policy reforms have changed the food marketing environment for Chinese consumers and may have contributed to shifts in consumer preferences. The objective of this paper is to uncover evidence of structural change in food consumption among urban residents in China. Both parametric and nonparametric methods are used to test for structural change in aggregate household data from 1981 to 2004. The tests provided a reasonably clear picture of changing food consumption over the study period.
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BACKGROUND: Mitochondrial DNA sequencing increasingly results in the recognition of genetically divergent, but morphologically cryptic lineages. Species delimitation approaches that rely on multiple lines of evidence in areas of co-occurrence are particularly powerful to infer their specific status. We investigated the species boundaries of two cryptic lineages of the land snail genus Trochulus in a contact zone, using mitochondrial and nuclear DNA marker as well as shell morphometrics. RESULTS: Both mitochondrial lineages have a distinct geographical distribution with a small zone of co-occurrence. In the same area, we detected two nuclear genotype clusters, each being highly significantly associated to one mitochondrial lineage. This association however had exceptions: a small number of individuals in the contact zone showed intermediate genotypes (4%) or cytonuclear disequilibrium (12%). Both mitochondrial lineage and nuclear cluster were statistically significant predictors for the shell shape indicating morphological divergence. Nevertheless, the lineage morphospaces largely overlapped (low posterior classification success rate of 69% and 78%, respectively): the two lineages are truly cryptic. CONCLUSION: The integrative approach using multiple lines of evidence supported the hypothesis that the investigated Trochulus lineages are reproductively isolated species. In the small contact area, however, the lineages hybridise to a limited extent. This detection of a hybrid zone adds an instance to the rare reported cases of hybridisation in land snails.