Environmental and fishing effects on the dynamics of brown tiger prawn (Penaeus esculentus) in Moreton Bay (Australia)

This analysis of the variations of brown tiger prawn (Penaeus esculentus) catch in Moreton Bay multispecies trawl fishery estimated catchability using a delay difference model. It integrated several factors responsible for variations in catchability: targeting of fishing effort, increasing fishing power and changing availability. An analysis of covariance was used to define fishing events targeted at brown tiger prawns. A general linear model estimated inter-annual variations of fishing power. Temperature-induced changes in prawn behaviour played an important role on the dynamics of this fishery. Maximum likelihood estimates of targeted catchability (4.09 ± 0.42 × 10−4 boat-day−1) were twice as large as non-targeted catchability (1.86 ± 0.25 × 10−4 boat-day−1). The causes of recent declines in fishing effort in this fishery were discussed.

Population dynamics of house mice in Queensland grain-growing areas

Context. Irregular plagues of house mice cause high production losses in grain crops in Australia. If plagues can be forecast through broad-scale monitoring or model-based prediction, then mice can be proactively controlled by poison baiting. Aims. To predict mouse plagues in grain crops in Queensland and assess the value of broad-scale monitoring. Methods. Regular trapping of mice at the same sites on the Darling Downs in southern Queensland has been undertaken since 1974. This provides an index of abundance over time that can be related to rainfall, crop yield, winter temperature and past mouse abundance. Other sites have been trapped over a shorter time period elsewhere on the Darling Downs and in central Queensland, allowing a comparison of mouse population dynamics and cross-validation of models predicting mouse abundance. Key results. On the regularly trapped 32-km transect on the Darling Downs, damaging mouse densities occur in 50% of years and a plague in 25% of years, with no detectable increase in mean monthly mouse abundance over the past 35 years. High mouse abundance on this transect is not consistently matched by high abundance in the broader area. Annual maximum mouse abundance in autumn–winter can be predicted (R2 = 57%) from spring mouse abundance and autumn–winter rainfall in the previous year. In central Queensland, mouse dynamics contrast with those on the Darling Downs and lack the distinct annual cycle, with peak abundance occurring in any month outside early spring.Onaverage, damaging mouse densities occur in 1 in 3 years and a plague occurs in 1 in 7 years. The dynamics of mouse populations on two transects ~70 km apart were rarely synchronous. Autumn–winter rainfall can indicate mouse abundance in some seasons (R2 = ~52%). Conclusion. Early warning of mouse plague formation in Queensland grain crops from regional models should trigger farm-based monitoring. This can be incorporated with rainfall into a simple model predicting future abundance that will determine any need for mouse control. Implications. A model-based warning of a possible mouse plague can highlight the need for local monitoring of mouse activity, which in turn could trigger poison baiting to prevent further mouse build-up.

Sources and seasonal dynamics of Alternaria inoculum associated with leaf blotch and fruit spot of apples

Alternaria leaf blotch and fruit spot caused by Alternaria spp. cause annual losses to the Australian apple industry. Control options are limited, mainly due to a lack of understanding of the disease cycle. Therefore, this study aimed to determine potential sources of Alternaria spp. inoculum in the orchard and examine their relative contribution throughout the production season. Leaf residue from the orchard floor, canopy leaves, twigs and buds were collected monthly from three apple orchards for two years and examined for the number of spores on their surface. In addition, the effects of climatic factors on spore production dynamics in each plant part were examined. Although all four plant parts tested contributed to the Alternaria inoculum in the orchard, significant higher numbers of spores were obtained from leaf residue than the other plant parts supporting the hypothesis that overwintering of Alternaria spp. occurred mainly in leaf residue and minimally on twigs and buds. The most significant period of spore production on leaf residue occurred from dormancy until bloom and on canopy leaves and twigs during the fruit growth stage. Temperature was the single most significant factor influencing the amount of Alternaria inoculum and rainfall and relative humidity showed strong associations with temperature influencing the spore production dynamics in Australian orchards. The practical implications of this study include the eradication of leaf residue from the orchard floor and sanitation of the canopy after harvest to remove residual spores from the trees.

Water-ethanol mixtures by molecular dynamics and x-ray Compton scattering

Water-ethanol mixtures are commonly used in industry and house holds. However, quite surprisingly their molecular-level structure is still not completely understood. In particular, there is evidence that the local intermolecular geometries depend significantly on the concentration. The aim of this study was to gain information on the molecular-level structures of water-ethanol mixtures by two computational methods. The methods are classical molecular dynamics (MD), where the movement of molecules can be studied, and x-ray Compton scattering, in which the scattering cross section is sensitive to the electron momentum density. Firstly, the water-ethanol mixtures were studied with MD simulations, with the mixture concentration ranging from 0 to 100%. For the simulations well-established force fields were used for the water and ethanol molecules (TIP4P and OPLS-AA, respectively). Moreover, two models were used for ethanol, rigid and non-rigid. In the rigid model the intramolecular bond lengths are fixed, whereas in the non-rigid model the lengths are determined by harmonic potentials. Secondly, mixtures with three different concentrations employing both ethanol models were studied by calculating the experimentally observable x-ray quantity, the Compton profile. In the MD simulations a slight underestimation in the density was observed as compared to experiment. Furthermore, a positive excess of hydrogen bonding with water molecules and a negative one with ethanol was quantified. Also, the mixture was found more structured when the ethanol concentration was higher. Negligible differences in the results were found between the two ethanol models. In contrast, in the Compton scattering results a notable difference between the ethanol models was observed. For the rigid model the Compton profiles were similar for all the concentrations, but for the non-rigid model they were distinct. This leads to two possibilities of how the mixing occurs. Either the mixing is similar in all concentrations (as suggested by the rigid model) or the mixing changes for different concentrations (as suggested by the non-rigid model). Either way, this study shows that the choice of the force field is essential in the microscopic structure formation in the MD simulations. When the sources of uncertainty in the calculated Compton profiles were analyzed, it was found that more statistics needs to be collected to reduce the statistical uncertainty in the final results. The obtained Compton scattering results can be considered somewhat preliminary, but clearly indicative of the behaviour of the water-ethanol mixtures when the force field is modified. The next step is to collect more statistics and compare the results with experimental data to decide which ethanol model describes the mixture better. This way, valuable information on the microscopic structure of water-ethanol mixtures can be found. In addition, information on the force fields in the MD simulations and on the ability of the MD simulations to reproduce the microscopic structure of binary liquids is obtained.

Sulphate ion dynamics in a-alums studied by esr at high pressures

The variation of zero-field splitting and linewidth of Cr3+ ion in KCr and KAI alums with hydrostatic pressure and with temperature is investigated. A model for the apparent phase transition is proposed on the basis of the reorientational motion of the SO2-4 groups.

Population dynamics of Thaumastocoris peregrinus in Eucalyptus plantations of South Africa

Thaumastocoris peregrinus is a sap-sucking insect that infests non-native Eucalyptus plantations in Africa, New Zealand, South America and parts of Southern Europe, in addition to street trees in parts of its native range of Australia. In South Africa, pronounced fluctuations in the population densities have been observed. To characterise spatiotemporal variability in T. peregrinus abundance and the factors that might influence it, we monitored adult population densities at six sites in the main eucalypt growing regions of South Africa. At each site, twenty yellow sticky traps were monitored weekly for 30 months, together with climatic data. We also characterised the influence of temperature on growth and survival experimentally and used this to model how temperature may influence population dynamics. T. peregrinus was present throughout the year at all sites, with annual site-specific peaks in abundance. Peaks occurred during autumn (February-April) for the Pretoria site, summer (November-January) for the Zululand site and spring (August-October) for the Tzaneen, Sabie and Piet Retief monitoring sites. Temperature (both experimental and field-collected), humidity and rainfall were mostly weakly, or not at all, associated with population fluctuations. It is clear that a complex interaction of these and other factors (e.g. host quality) influence population fluctuations in an annual, site specific cycle. The results obtained not only provide insights into the biology of T. peregrinus, but will also be important for future planning of monitoring and control programs using semiochemicals, chemical insecticides or biological control agents. © 2014 Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg.

Can soil nematode community structure be used to indicate soil carbon dynamics in horticultural systems?

There is a need to develop indicators that relate the dynamics of soil organic carbon (SOC) with changes in land management of horticultural production systems. Soil nematode communities have been shown to be sensitive to land management changes, but often do not include plant-parasites in the calculation of soil nematode community indices. The concept of nematode functional guilds was used to estimate the proportion of carbon entering the soil ecosystem through different channels, such as through decomposition of organic material, the detrital channel, through the roots of plants, the root channel or recycled through the activity of predators, a predation channel. Calculations of the indices were developed and validated using case studies in the north Queensland banana industry. Firstly, a survey of organic and conventional banana farms found a greater proportion of C entering the soil ecosystem through the detrital channel and a reduced proportion of C originating through the root channel at the organic sites relative to conventional sites. Secondly, a field experiment comparing compost amendments, found application of fresh compost significantly increased the proportion of C entering the soil ecosystem through the detrital channel and decreased proportion of C originating from the root channel. Thirdly, a field experiment comparing 'conventional' banana production to an 'alternative' system which incorporated organic matter, found the proportion of C entering the soil ecosystem through the root channel was significantly greater in the conventional systems relative to the alternative system. This research demonstrates that nematode indices can be used to assess horticultural systems, by indicating the origins of SOC.

Crude oil and agricultural futures: An analysis of correlation dynamics

Correlations between oil and agricultural commodities have varied over previous decades, impacted by renewable fuels policy and turbulent economic conditions. We estimate smooth transition conditional correlation models for 12 agricultural commodities and WTI crude oil. While a structural change in correlations occurred concurrently with the introduction of biofuel policy, oil and food price levels are also key influences. High correlation between biofuel feedstocks and oil is more likely to occur when food and oil price levels are high. Correlation with oil returns is strong for biofuel feedstocks, unlike with other agricultural futures, suggesting limited contagion from energy to food markets.

Impacts of level of utilisation by grazing on an Astrebla (Mitchell grass) grassland in north-western Queensland between 1984 and 2010. 1. Herbage mass and population dynamics of Astrebla spp

Managing large variations in herbage production, resulting from highly variable seasonal rainfall, provides a major challenge for the sustainable management of Astrebla (Mitchell grass) grasslands in Australia. A grazing study with sheep was conducted between 1984 and 2010 on an Astrebla grassland in northern Queensland to describe the effects of a range of levels of utilisation of the herbage at the end of the summer growing season (April–May in northern Australia) on the sustainability of these grasslands. In unreplicated paddocks, sheep numbers were adjusted annually to achieve 0, 10, 20, 30, 50 and 80% utilisation of the herbage mass at the end of the summer over the ensuing 12 months. Higher levels of utilisation reduced both total and Astrebla spp. herbage mass because of the effects of higher utilisation on Astrebla spp. and this effect was accentuated by drought. The tussock density of Astrebla spp. varied widely among years but with few treatment differences until 2005 when density was reduced at the 50% level of utilisation. A major change in density resulted from a large recruitment of Astrebla spp. in 1989 that influenced its density for the remainder of the study. Basal area of the tussocks fluctuated among years, with increases due to rainfall and decreases during droughts. Seasonal rainfall was more influential than level of utilisation in changes to the basal area of perennial grasses. Drought resulted in the death of Astrebla spp. tussocks and this effect was accentuated at higher levels of utilisation. A series of three grazing exclosures were used to examine the recovery of the density and basal area of Astrebla spp. after it had been reduced by 80% utilisation over the preceding 9 years. This recovery study indicated that, although grazing exclusion was useful in the recovery of Astrebla spp., above-average rainfall was the major factor driving increases in the basal area of perennial grasses. Spring values of the Southern Oscillation Index and associated rainfall probabilities were considered to have potential for understanding the dynamics of Astrebla spp. It was concluded that Astrebla grassland remained sustainable after 26 years when grazed at up to 30% utilisation, while, at 50% utilisation, they became unsustainable after 20 years. Results from this study emphasised the need to maintain the population of Astrebla spp. tussocks.

Soil seed bank dynamics in response to an extreme flood event in a riparian habitat

A significantly increased water regime can lead to inundation of rivers, creeks and surrounding floodplains- and thus impact on the temporal dynamics of both the extant vegetation and the dormant, but viable soil-seed bank of riparian corridors. The study documented changes in the soil seed-bank along riparian corridors before and after a major flood event in January 2011 in southeast Queensland, Australia. The study site was a major river (the Mooleyember creek) near Roma, Central Queensland impacted by the extreme flood event and where baseline ecological data on riparian seed-bank populations have previously been collected in 2007, 2008 and 2009. After the major flood event, we collected further soil samples from the same locations in spring/summer (November–December 2011) and in early autumn (March 2012). Thereafter, the soils were exposed to adequate warmth and moisture under glasshouse conditions, and emerged seedlings identified taxonomically. Flooding increased seed-bank abundance but decreased its species richness and diversity. However, flood impact was less than that of yearly effect but greater than that of seasonal variation. Seeds of trees and shrubs were few in the soil, and were negatively affected by the flood; those of herbaceous and graminoids were numerous and proliferate after the flood. Seed-banks of weedy and/or exotic species were no more affected by the flood than those of native and/or non-invasive species. Overall, the studied riparian zone showed evidence of a quick recovery of its seed-bank over time, and can be considered to be resilient to an extreme flood event.

Ecological dynamics of emerging bat virus spillover

Viruses that originate in bats may be the most notorious emerging zoonoses that spill over from wildlife into domestic animals and humans. Understanding how these infections filter through ecological systems to cause disease in humans is of profound importance to public health. Transmission of viruses from bats to humans requires a hierarchy of enabling conditions that connect the distribution of reservoir hosts, viral infection within these hosts, and exposure and susceptibility of recipient hosts. For many emerging bat viruses, spillover also requires viral shedding from bats, and survival of the virus in the environment. Focusing on Hendra virus, but also addressing Nipah virus, Ebola virus, Marburg virus and coronaviruses, we delineate this cross-species spillover dynamic from the within-host processes that drive virus excretion to land-use changes that increase interaction among species. We describe how land-use changes may affect co-occurrence and contact between bats and recipient hosts. Two hypotheses may explain temporal and spatial pulses of virus shedding in bat populations: episodic shedding from persistently infected bats or transient epidemics that occur as virus is transmitted among bat populations. Management of livestock also may affect the probability of exposure and disease. Interventions to decrease the probability of virus spillover can be implemented at multiple levels from targeting the reservoir host to managing recipient host exposure and susceptibility.

Phenotyping novel stay-green traits to capture genetic variation in senescence dynamics

Stay-green plants retain green leaves longer after anthesis and can have improved yield, particularly under water limitation. As senescence is a dynamic process, genotypes with different senescence patterns may exhibit similar final normalised difference vegetative index (NDVI). By monitoring NDVI from as early as awn emergence to maturity, we demonstrate that analysing senescence dynamics improves insight into genotypic stay-green variation. A senescence evaluation tool was developed to fit a logistic function to NDVI data and used to analyse data from three environments for a wheat (Triticum aestivum L.) population whose lines contrast for stay-green. Key stay-green traits were estimated including, maximum NDVI, senescence rate and a trait integrating NDVI variation after anthesis, as well as the timing from anthesis to onset, midpoint and conclusion of senescence. The integrative trait and the timing to onset and mid-senescence exhibited high positive correlations with yield and a high heritability in the three studied environments. Senescence rate was correlated with yield in some environments, whereas maximum NDVI was associated with yield in a drought-stressed environment. Where resources preclude frequent measurements, we found that NDVI measurements may be restricted to the period of rapid senescence, but caution is required when dealing with lines of different phenology. In contrast, regular monitoring during the whole period after flowering allows the estimation of senescence dynamics traits that may be reliably compared across genotypes and environments. We anticipate that selection for stay-green traits will enhance genetic progress towards high-yielding, stay-green germplasm.

Early-season movement dynamics of phytophagous pest and natural enemies across a native vegetation-crop ecotone

There is limited understanding about how insect movement patterns are influenced by landscape features, and how landscapes can be managed to suppress pest phytophage populations in crops. Theory suggests that the relative timing of pest and natural enemy arrival in crops may influence pest suppression. However, there is a lack of data to substantiate this claim. We investigate the movement patterns of insects from native vegetation (NV) and discuss the implications of these patterns for pest control services. Using bi-directional interception traps we quantified the number of insects crossing an NV/crop ecotone relative to a control crop/crop interface in two agricultural regions early in the growing season. We used these data to infer patterns of movement and net flux. At the community-level, insect movement patterns were influenced by ecotone in two out of three years by region combinations. At the functional-group level, pests and parasitoids showed similar movement patterns from NV very soon after crop emergence. However, movement across the control interface increased towards the end of the early-season sampling period. Predators consistently moved more often from NV into crops than vice versa, even after crop emergence. Not all species showed a significant response to ecotone, however when a response was detected, these species showed similar patterns between the two regions. Our results highlight the importance of NV for the recruitment of natural enemies for early season crop immigration that may be potentially important for pest suppression. However, NV was also associated with crop immigration by some pest species. Hence, NV offers both opportunities and risks for pest management. The development of targeted NV management may reduce the risk of crop immigration by pests, but not of natural enemies.