Sets of probability distributions, independence, and convexity

This paper analyzes concepts of independence and assumptions of convexity in the theory of sets of probability distributions. The starting point is Kyburg and Pittarelli's discussion of "convex Bayesianism" (in particular their proposals concerning E-admissibility, independence, and convexity). The paper offers an organized review of the literature on independence for sets of probability distributions; new results on graphoid properties and on the justification of "strong independence" (using exchangeability) are presented. Finally, the connection between Kyburg and Pittarelli's results and recent developments on the axiomatization of non-binary preferences, and its impact on "complete" independence, are described.

Superdiffusion in a non-Markovian random walk model with a Gaussian memory profile

Most superdiffusive Non-Markovian random walk models assume that correlations are maintained at all time scales, e. g., fractional Brownian motion, Levy walks, the Elephant walk and Alzheimer walk models. In the latter two models the random walker can always "remember" the initial times near t = 0. Assuming jump size distributions with finite variance, the question naturally arises: is superdiffusion possible if the walker is unable to recall the initial times? We give a conclusive answer to this general question, by studying a non-Markovian model in which the walker's memory of the past is weighted by a Gaussian centered at time t/2, at which time the walker had one half the present age, and with a standard deviation sigma t which grows linearly as the walker ages. For large widths we find that the model behaves similarly to the Elephant model, but for small widths this Gaussian memory profile model behaves like the Alzheimer walk model. We also report that the phenomenon of amnestically induced persistence, known to occur in the Alzheimer walk model, arises in the Gaussian memory profile model. We conclude that memory of the initial times is not a necessary condition for generating (log-periodic) superdiffusion. We show that the phenomenon of amnestically induced persistence extends to the case of a Gaussian memory profile.

An evaluation of the distributions of polychlorinated biphenyls and organic matter in coastal sediments

The objective of this thesis is to improve the understanding of what processes and mechanism affects the distribution of polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs) and organic carbon in coastal sediments. Because of the strong association of hydrophobic organic contaminants (HOCs) such as PCBs with organic matter in the aquatic environment, these two entities are naturally linked. The coastal environment is the most complex and dynamic part of the ocean when it comes to both cycling of organic matter and HOCs. This environment is characterised by the largest fluxes and most diverse sources of both entities. A wide array of methods was used to study these processes throughout this thesis. In the field sites in the Stockholm archipelago of the Baltic proper, bottom sediments and settling particulate matter were retrieved using sediment coring devices and sediment traps from morphometrically and seismically well-characterized locations. In the laboratory, the samples have been analysed for PCBs, stable carbon isotope ratios, carbon-nitrogen atom ratios as well as standard sediment properties. From the fieldwork in the Stockholm Archipelago and the following laboratory work it was concluded that the inner Stockholm archipelago has a low (≈ 4%) trapping efficiency for freshwater-derived organic carbon. The corollary is a large potential for long-range waterborne transport of OC and OC-associated nutrients and hydrophobic organic pollutants from urban Stockholm to more pristine offshore Baltic Sea ecosystems. Theoretical work has been carried out using Geographical Information Systems (GIS) and statistical methods on a database of 4214 individual sediment samples, each with reported individual PCB congener concentrations. From this work it was concluded that the continental shelf sediments are key global inventories and ultimate sinks of PCBs. Depending on congener, 10-80% of the cumulative historical emissions to the environment are accounted for in continental shelf sediments. Further it was concluded that the many infamous and highly contaminated surface sediments of urban harbours and estuaries of contaminated rivers cannot be of importance as a secondary source to sustain the concentrations observed in remote sediments. Of the global shelf PCB inventory < 1% are in sediments near population centres while ≥ 90% is in remote areas (> 10 km from any dwellings). The remote sub-basin of the North Atlantic Ocean contains approximately half of the global shelf sediment inventory for most of the PCBs studied.

3D bloodstain pattern analysis: ballistic reconstruction of the trajectories of blood drops and determination of the centres of origin of the bloodstains

For crime scene investigation in cases of homicide, the pattern of bloodstains at the incident site is of critical importance. The morphology of the bloodstain pattern serves to determine the approximate blood source locations, the minimum number of blows and the positioning of the victim. In the present work, the benefits of the three-dimensional bloodstain pattern analysis, including the ballistic approximation of the trajectories of the blood drops, will be demonstrated using two illustrative cases. The crime scenes were documented in 3D, using the non-contact methods digital photogrammetry, tachymetry and laser scanning. Accurate, true-to-scale 3D models of the crime scenes, including the bloodstain pattern and the traces, were created. For the determination of the areas of origin of the bloodstain pattern, the trajectories of up to 200 well-defined bloodstains were analysed in CAD and photogrammetry software. The ballistic determination of the trajectories was performed using ballistics software. The advantages of this method are the short preparation time on site, the non-contact measurement of the bloodstains and the high accuracy of the bloodstain analysis. It should be expected that this method delivers accurate results regarding the number and position of the areas of origin of bloodstains, in particular the vertical component is determined more precisely than using conventional methods. In both cases relevant forensic conclusions regarding the course of events were enabled by the ballistic bloodstain pattern analysis.

Standard procedures for adults in accredited sleep medicine centres in Europe

The present paper describes standardized procedures within clinical sleep medicine. As such, it is a continuation of the previously published European guidelines for the accreditation of sleep medicine centres and European guidelines for the certification of professionals in sleep medicine, aimed at creating standards of practice in European sleep medicine. It is also part of a broader action plan of the European Sleep Research Society, including the process of accreditation of sleep medicine centres and certification of sleep medicine experts, as well as publishing the Catalogue of Knowledge and Skills for sleep medicine experts (physicians, non-medical health care providers, nurses and technologists), which will be a basis for the development of relevant educational curricula. In the current paper, the standard operational procedures sleep medicine centres regarding the diagnostic and therapeutic management of patients evaluated at sleep medicine centres, accredited according to the European Guidelines, are based primarily on prevailing evidence-based medicine principles. In addition, parts of the standard operational procedures are based on a formalized consensus procedure applied by a group of Sleep Medicine Experts from the European National Sleep Societies. The final recommendations for standard operational procedures are categorized either as 'standard practice', 'procedure that could be useful', 'procedure that is not useful' or 'procedure with insufficient information available'. Standard operational procedures described here include both subjective and objective testing, as well as recommendations for follow-up visits and for ensuring patients' safety in sleep medicine. The overall goal of the actual standard operational procedures is to further develop excellence in the practice and quality assurance of sleep medicine in Europe.

Cross-sectional observational study of 208 patients with non-classical urea cycle disorders

Urea cycle disorders (UCDs) are inherited disorders of ammonia detoxification often regarded as mainly of relevance to pediatricians. Based on an increasing number of case studies it has become obvious that a significant number of UCD patients are affected by their disease in a non-classical way: presenting outside the newborn period, following a mild course, presenting with unusual clinical features, or asymptomatic patients with only biochemical signs of a UCD. These patients are surviving into adolescence and adulthood, rendering this group of diseases clinically relevant to adult physicians as well as pediatricians. In preparation for an international workshop we collected data on all patients with non-classical UCDs treated by the participants in 20 European metabolic centres. Information was collected on a cohort of 208 patients 50% of which were ≥ 16 years old. The largest subgroup (121 patients) had X-linked ornithine transcarbamylase deficiency (OTCD) of whom 83 were female and 29% of these were asymptomatic. In index patients, there was a mean delay from first symptoms to diagnosis of 1.6 years. Cognitive impairment was present in 36% of all patients including female OTCD patients (in 31%) and those 41 patients identified presymptomatically following positive newborn screening (in 12%). In conclusion, UCD patients with non-classical clinical presentations require the interest and care of adult physicians and have a high risk of neurological complications. To improve the outcome of UCDs, a greater awareness by health professionals of the importance of hyperammonemia and UCDs, and ultimately avoidance of the still long delay to correctly diagnose the patients, is crucial.

Temporary scaffolding of coronary arteries with bioabsorbable magnesium stents: a prospective, non-randomised multicentre trial

BACKGROUND: Coronary stents improve immediate and late results of balloon angioplasty by tacking up dissections and preventing wall recoil. These goals are achieved within weeks after angioplasty, but with current technology stents permanently remain in the artery, with many limitations including the need for long-term antiplatelet treatment to avoid thrombosis. We report a prospective multicentre clinical trial of coronary implantations of absorbable magnesium stents. METHODS: We enrolled 63 patients (44 men; mean age 61.3 [SD 9.5 years]) in eight centres with single de novo lesions in a native coronary artery in a multicentre, non-randomised prospective study. Follow-up included coronary angiography and intravascular ultrasound at 4 months and clinical assessment at 6 months and 12 months. The primary endpoint was cardiac death, non-fatal myocardial infarction, or clinically driven target lesion revascularisation at 4 months FINDINGS: 71 stents, 10-15 mm in length and 3.0-3.5 mm in diameter, were successfully implanted after pre-dilatation in 63 patients. Diameter stenosis was reduced from 61.5 (SD 13.1%) to 12.6 (5.6%) with an acute gain of 1.41 mm (0.46 mm) and in-stent late loss of 1.08 mm (0.49 mm). The ischaemia-driven target lesion revascularisation rate was 23.8% after 4 months, and the overall target lesion revascularisation rate was 45% after 1 year. No myocardial infarction, subacute or late thrombosis, or death occurred. Angiography at 4 months showed an increased diameter stenosis of 48.4 (17.0%). After serial intravascular ultrasound examinations, only small remnants of the original struts were visible, well embedded into the intima. Neointimal growth and negative remodelling were the main operating mechanisms of restenosis. INTERPRETATION: This study shows that biodegradable magnesium stents can achieve an immediate angiographic result similar to the result of other metal stents and can be safely degraded after 4 months. Modifications of stent characteristics with prolonged degradation and drug elution are currently in development.

Biolimus-eluting stent with biodegradable polymer versus sirolimus-eluting stent with durable polymer for coronary revascularisation (LEADERS): a randomised non-inferiority trial

BACKGROUND: A novel stent platform eluting biolimus, a sirolimus analogue, from a biodegradable polymer showed promising results in preliminary studies. We compared the safety and efficacy of a biolimus-eluting stent (with biodegradable polymer) with a sirolimus-eluting stent (with durable polymer). METHODS: We undertook a multicentre, assessor-blind, non-inferiority study in ten European centres. 1707 patients aged 18 years or older with chronic stable coronary artery disease or acute coronary syndromes were centrally randomised by a computer-generated allocation sequence to treatment with either biolimus-eluting (n=857) or sirolimus-eluting (n=850) stents. The primary endpoint was a composite of cardiac death, myocardial infarction, or clinically-indicated target vessel revascularisation within 9 months. Analysis was by intention to treat. 427 patients were randomly allocated to angiographic follow-up, with in-stent percentage diameter stenosis as principal outcome measure at 9 months. The trial is registered with ClinicalTrials.gov, number NCT00389220. FINDINGS: We analysed all randomised patients. Biolimus-eluting stents were non-inferior to sirolimus-eluting stents for the primary endpoint at 9 months (79 [9%] patients vs 89 [11%], rate ratio 0.88 [95% CI 0.64-1.19], p for non-inferiority=0.003, p for superiority=0.39). Frequency of cardiac death (14 [1.6%] vs 21 [2.5%], p for superiority=0.22), myocardial infarction (49 [5.7%] vs 39 [4.6%], p=0.30), and clinically-indicated target vessel revascularisation (38 [4.4%] vs 47 [5.5%], p=0.29) were similar for both stent types. 168 (79%) patients in the biolimus-eluting group and 167 (78%) in the sirolimus-eluting group had data for angiographic follow-up available. Biolimus-eluting stents were non-inferior to sirolimus-eluting stents in in-stent percentage diameter stenosis (20.9%vs 23.3%, difference -2.2% [95% CI -6.0 to 1.6], p for non-inferiority=0.001, p for superiority=0.26). INTERPRETATION: Our results suggest that a stent eluting biolimus from a biodegradable polymer represents a safe and effective alternative to a stent eluting sirolimus from a durable polymer in patients with chronic stable coronary artery disease or acute coronary syndromes. FUNDING: Biosensors Europe SA, Switzerland.

Multiasset Derivatives and Joint Distributions of Asset Prices

Several of multiasset derivatives like basket options or options on the weighted maximum of assets exhibit the property that their prices determine uniquely the underlying asset distribution. Related to that the question how to retrieve this distributions from the corresponding derivatives quotes will be discussed. On the contrary, the prices of exchange options do not uniquely determine the underlying distributions of asset prices and the extent of this non-uniqueness can be characterised. The discussion is related to a geometric interpretation of multiasset derivatives as support functions of convex sets. Following this, various symmetry properties for basket, maximum and exchange options are discussed alongside with their geometric interpretations and some decomposition results for more general payoff functions.

Forest structure and composition of previously selectively logged and non-logged montane forests at Mt. Kilimanjaro

The montane forests of Mount Kilimanjaro in Tanzania have been subjected to a long history of selective logging. However, since 1984 logging of indigenous trees is prohibited. Today, these forests allow us to evaluate the long-term effects of selective logging. We mapped the height and diameter at breast height (DBH) of all trees >10 cm DBH on 10 sites of 0.25 ha. Five sites represent non-logged forests, another five selectively logged forests. We tested whether forests were still visibly affected 30–40 years after selective logging in terms of their forest structure and tree diversity. Additionally we compared tree densities of different species guilds, including disturbance-indicator species, late-successional species and main timber species. Furthermore, we specifically compared the community size distributions of selectively logged and non-logged forests, first across all species and then for the most important timber species, Ocotea usambarensis, alone. 30–40 years after selective logging forests still showed a higher overall stem density, mainly due to higher relative abundances of small trees (<50 cm DBH) in general, and higher densities of small size class stems of late-successional species specifically. For O. usambarensis, the selectively logged sites harboured higher relative abundances of small trees and lower relative abundances of harvestable trees. The higher relative abundance of small O. usambarensis-stems in selectively logged forests appears promising for future forest recovery. Thus, outside protected areas, selective logging may be a sustainable management option if logging cycles are considerably longer than 40 years, enough large source trees remain, and the recruiting O. usambarensis individuals find open space for their establishment.

Gentrification alpine : Lorsque le village de montagne devient un arrondissement métropolitain. Les nouveaux résidents partagés entre amour du paysage et capital symbolique

Cet article aborde la transformation de régions de montagne en lieux de résidence remplaçant des secteurs économiques plus anciens (agriculture, industrie manufacturière, tourisme) dans les montagnes européennes. Il se place dans la perspective du développement régional et de son impact sur les ressources régionales fixes, le « capital territorial ». Cette nouvelle tendance affecte les montagnes européennes de deux manières, et participe à la formation de régions métropolitaines qui combinent centres métropolitains et environnements de loisirs fondés sur les attraits du paysage pour constituer de nouvelles entités intégrées. Au cours du processus, le paysage devient un bien de consommation nouveau et rare, qui joue un rôle dans l’accumulation du capital investi. L’article établit que les concepts d’esthétique du paysage et d’agréments ne suffisent pas à expliquer cette nouvelle dynamique, car ils méconnaissent les processus spatio-économiques ainsi que le rôle de la marchandisation du paysage pour les nouveaux résidents. Ces nouveaux résidents ont un profil plus « multilocal » que migrant. La multilocalité et l’usage sélectif des produits du paysage freinent le processus d’intégration, crucial pour entretenir et développer le capital territorial. On peut poser que la présence non permanente des nouveaux résidents risque d’affaiblir et non de renforcer les structures locales existantes. Il semble donc nécessaire de déployer des efforts particuliers auprès de chaque groupe de nouveaux résidents pour que de simples résidents à temps partiel deviennent des acteurs régionaux (au moins à temps partiel). De plus, le concept du développement régional centré sur les acteurs innovants doit être remis en question dans la mesure où l’aspect « consommation » domine le rapport du paysage.

A critical evaluation of secondary cancer risk models applied to Monte Carlo dose distributions of 2-dimensional, 3-dimensional conformal and hybrid intensity-modulated radiation therapy for breast cancer

The comparison of radiotherapy techniques regarding secondary cancer risk has yielded contradictory results possibly stemming from the many different approaches used to estimate risk. The purpose of this study was to make a comprehensive evaluation of different available risk models applied to detailed whole-body dose distributions computed by Monte Carlo for various breast radiotherapy techniques including conventional open tangents, 3D conformal wedged tangents and hybrid intensity modulated radiation therapy (IMRT). First, organ-specific linear risk models developed by the International Commission on Radiological Protection (ICRP) and the Biological Effects of Ionizing Radiation (BEIR) VII committee were applied to mean doses for remote organs only and all solid organs. Then, different general non-linear risk models were applied to the whole body dose distribution. Finally, organ-specific non-linear risk models for the lung and breast were used to assess the secondary cancer risk for these two specific organs. A total of 32 different calculated absolute risks resulted in a broad range of values (between 0.1% and 48.5%) underlying the large uncertainties in absolute risk calculation. The ratio of risk between two techniques has often been proposed as a more robust assessment of risk than the absolute risk. We found that the ratio of risk between two techniques could also vary substantially considering the different approaches to risk estimation. Sometimes the ratio of risk between two techniques would range between values smaller and larger than one, which then translates into inconsistent results on the potential higher risk of one technique compared to another. We found however that the hybrid IMRT technique resulted in a systematic reduction of risk compared to the other techniques investigated even though the magnitude of this reduction varied substantially with the different approaches investigated. Based on the epidemiological data available, a reasonable approach to risk estimation would be to use organ-specific non-linear risk models applied to the dose distributions of organs within or near the treatment fields (lungs and contralateral breast in the case of breast radiotherapy) as the majority of radiation-induced secondary cancers are found in the beam-bordering regions.

5-year results of accelerated partial breast irradiation using sole interstitial multicatheter brachytherapy versus whole-breast irradiation with boost after breast-conserving surgery for low-risk invasive and in-situ carcinoma of the female breast: a randomised, phase 3, non-inferiority trial.

BACKGROUND In a phase 3, randomised, non-inferiority trial, accelerated partial breast irradiation (APBI) for patients with stage 0, I, and IIA breast cancer who underwent breast-conserving treatment was compared with whole-breast irradiation. Here, we present 5-year follow-up results. METHODS We did a phase 3, randomised, non-inferiority trial at 16 hospitals and medical centres in seven European countries. 1184 patients with low-risk invasive and ductal carcinoma in situ treated with breast-conserving surgery were centrally randomised to either whole-breast irradiation or APBI using multicatheter brachytherapy. The primary endpoint was local recurrence. Analysis was done according to treatment received. This trial is registered with ClinicalTrials.gov, number NCT00402519. FINDINGS Between April 20, 2004, and July 30, 2009, 551 patients had whole-breast irradiation with tumour-bed boost and 633 patients received APBI using interstitial multicatheter brachytherapy. At 5-year follow-up, nine patients treated with APBI and five patients receiving whole-breast irradiation had a local recurrence; the cumulative incidence of local recurrence was 1·44% (95% CI 0·51-2·38) with APBI and 0·92% (0·12-1·73) with whole-breast irradiation (difference 0·52%, 95% CI -0·72 to 1·75; p=0·42). No grade 4 late side-effects were reported. The 5-year risk of grade 2-3 late side-effects to the skin was 3·2% with APBI versus 5·7% with whole-breast irradiation (p=0·08), and 5-year risk of grade 2-3 subcutaneous tissue late side-effects was 7·6% versus 6·3% (p=0·53). The risk of severe (grade 3) fibrosis at 5 years was 0·2% with whole-breast irradiation and 0% with APBI (p=0·46). INTERPRETATION The difference between treatments was below the relevance margin of 3 percentage points. Therefore, adjuvant APBI using multicatheter brachytherapy after breast-conserving surgery in patients with early breast cancer is not inferior to adjuvant whole-breast irradiation with respect to 5-year local control, disease-free survival, and overall survival. FUNDING German Cancer Aid.

Induction chemoradiation in stage IIIA/N2 non-small-cell lung cancer: a phase 3 randomised trial

BACKGROUND One of the standard options in the treatment of stage IIIA/N2 non-small-cell lung cancer is neoadjuvant chemotherapy and surgery. We did a randomised trial to investigate whether the addition of neoadjuvant radiotherapy improves outcomes. METHODS We enrolled patients in 23 centres in Switzerland, Germany and Serbia. Eligible patients had pathologically proven, stage IIIA/N2 non-small-cell lung cancer and were randomly assigned to treatment groups in a 1:1 ratio. Those in the chemoradiotherapy group received three cycles of neoadjuvant chemotherapy (100 mg/m(2) cisplatin and 85 mg/m(2) docetaxel) followed by radiotherapy with 44 Gy in 22 fractions over 3 weeks, and those in the control group received neoadjuvant chemotherapy alone. All patients were scheduled to undergo surgery. Randomisation was stratified by centre, mediastinal bulk (less than 5 cm vs 5 cm or more), and weight loss (5% or more vs less than 5% in the previous 6 months). The primary endpoint was event-free survival. Analyses were done by intention to treat. This trial is registered with ClinicalTrials.gov, number NCT00030771. FINDINGS From 2001 to 2012, 232 patients were enrolled, of whom 117 were allocated to the chemoradiotherapy group and 115 to the chemotherapy group. Median event-free survival was similar in the two groups at 12·8 months (95% CI 9·7-22·9) in the chemoradiotherapy group and 11·6 months (8·4-15·2) in the chemotherapy group (p=0·67). Median overall survival was 37·1 months (95% CI 22·6-50·0) with radiotherapy, compared with 26·2 months (19·9-52·1) in the control group. Chemotherapy-related toxic effects were reported in most patients, but 91% of patients completed three cycles of chemotherapy. Radiotherapy-induced grade 3 dysphagia was seen in seven (7%) patients. Three patients died in the control group within 30 days after surgery. INTERPRETATION Radiotherapy did not add any benefit to induction chemotherapy followed by surgery. We suggest that one definitive local treatment modality combined with neoadjuvant chemotherapy is adequate to treat resectable stage IIIA/N2 non-small-cell lung cancer. FUNDING Swiss State Secretariat for Education, Research and Innovation (SERI), Swiss Cancer League, and Sanofi.

Pond-Breeding Amphibian Species Distributions in a Beaver-Modified Landscape, Acadia National Park, Mount Desert Island, Maine

In order to maintain pond-breeding amphibian species richness, it is important to understand how both natural and anthropogenic disturbances affect species assemblages and individual species distributions both at the scale of individual ponds and at a larger landscape scale. The goal of this project was to investigate what characteristics of ponds and the surrounding wetland landscape were most effective in predicting pond-breeding species richness and the individual occurrence of wood frog (Rana sylvatica), bullfrog (Rana catesbeiana) and pickerel frog (Rana palustris) breeding sites in a beaver-modified landscape and how this landscape has changed over time. The wetland landscape of Acadia National Park was historically modified by the natural disturbance cycles of beaver (Castor cazadensis), and since their reintroduction to the island in 1921, beaver have played a large role in creating and maintaining palustrine wetlands. In 2000 and 2001, I studied pond-breeding amphibian assemblages at 71 palustrine wetlands in Acadia National Park, Mount Desert Island, Maine. I determined breeding presence of 7 amphibian species and quantified 15 variables describing local pond conditions and characteristics of the wetland landscape. I developed a priori models to predict sites with high amphibian species and used model selection with Akaike's Information Criterion (AIC) to identify important variables. Single species models were also developed to predict wood frog, bullfrog and pickerel frogs breeding presence. The variables for wetland connectivity by stream corridors and the presence of beaver disturbance were the most effective variables to predict sites with high amphibian richness. Wood frog breeding was best predicted by local scale variables describing temporary, fishless wetlands and the absence of active beaver disturbance. Abandoned beaver sites provided wood frog breeding habitat (70%) in a similar proportion to that found in non beaver-influenced sites (79%). In contrast, bullfrog breeding presence was limited to active beaver wetlands with fish and permanent water, and 80% of breeding sites were large (≥2ha in size). Pickerel frog breeding site selection was predicted best by the connectivity of sites in the landscape by stream corridors. Models including the presence of beaver disturbance, greater wetland perimeter and greater depth were included in the confidence set of pickerel frog models but showed considerably less support. Analysis of historic aerial photographs showed an 89% increase in the total number of ponded wetlands available in the landscape between the years of 1944 and 1997. Beaver colonization generally converted forested wetlands and riparian areas to open water and emergent wetlands. Temporal colonization of beaver wetlands favored large sites low in the watersheds and sites that were impounded later were generally smaller, higher in the watershed, and more likely to be abandoned. These results suggest that beaver have not only increased the number of available breeding sites in the landscape for pond-breeding amphibians, but the resulting mosaic of active and abandoned beaver wetlands also provides suitable breeding habitat for species with differing habitat requirements.