A discussion of “Estimating the historical and future probabilities of large terrorist events'' by Aaron Clauset and Ryan Woodard

The terrorist attacks in the United States on September 11, 2001 appeared to be a harbinger of increased terrorism and violence in the 21st century, bringing terrorism and political violence to the forefront of public discussion. Questions about these events abound, and “Estimating the Historical and Future Probabilities of Large Scale Terrorist Event” [Clauset and Woodard (2013)] asks specifically, “how rare are large scale terrorist events?” and, in general, encourages discussion on the role of quantitative methods in terrorism research and policy and decision-making. Answering the primary question raises two challenges. The first is identify- ing terrorist events. The second is finding a simple yet robust model for rare events that has good explanatory and predictive capabilities. The challenges of identifying terrorist events is acknowledged and addressed by reviewing and using data from two well-known and reputable sources: the Memorial Institute for the Prevention of Terrorism-RAND database (MIPT-RAND) [Memorial Institute for the Prevention of Terrorism] and the Global Terror- ism Database (GTD) [National Consortium for the Study of Terrorism and Responses to Terrorism (START) (2012), LaFree and Dugan (2007)]. Clauset and Woodard (2013) provide a detailed discussion of the limitations of the data and the models used, in the context of the larger issues surrounding terrorism and policy.

Theoretical and practical issues in team teaching a large undergraduate class

Attempts by universities to provide an improved learning environment to students have led to an increase in team-teaching approaches in higher education. While the definitions of team-teaching differ slightly, the benefits of team-teaching have been cited widely in the higher education literature. By tapping the specialist knowledge of a variety of staff members, students are exposed to current and emerging knowledge in different fields and topic areas; students are also able to understand concepts from a variety of viewpoints. However, while there is some evidence of the usefulness of team-teaching, there is patchy empirical support to underpin how well students appreciate and adapt to team-teaching approaches. This paper reports on the team-teaching approaches adopted in the delivery of an introductory journalism and communication course at the University of Queensland. The success of the approaches is examined against the background of quantitative and qualitative data. The study found that team-teaching is generally very well received by undergraduate students because they value the diverse expertise and teaching styles they are exposed to. Despite the positive feedback, students also complained about problems of continuity and cohesiveness.

The mitochondrial genome of the Russian wheat aphid Diuraphis noxia : large repetitive sequences between trnE and trnF in aphids

To characterize aphid mitochondrial genome (mitogenome) features, we sequenced the complete mitogenome of the Russian wheat aphid, Diuraphis noxia. The 15,784-bp mitogenome with a high A + T content (84.76%) and strong C skew (− 0.26) was arranged in the same gene order as that of the ancestral insect. Unlike typical insect mitogenomes, D. noxia possessed a large tandem repeat region (644 bp) located between trnE and trnF. Sequencing partial mitogenome of the cotton aphid (Aphis gossypii) further confirmed the presence of the large repeat region in aphids, but with different repeat length and copy number. Another motif (58 bp) tandemly repeated 2.3 times in the control region of D. noxia. All repeat units in D. noxia could be folded into stem-loop secondary structures, which could further promote an increase in copy numbers. Characterization of the D. noxia mitogenome revealed distinct mitogenome architectures, thus advancing our understanding of insect mitogenomic diversities and evolution.

Regulatory compliance as a means to achieve environmental sustainability at some large coastal developments in Queensland

The growing public concern about the complexity, cost and uncertain efficacy of the statuary environmental impact assessment process applying to large-scale projects in Queensland is reviewed. This is based on field data gathered over the past six years sat large-scale marina developments that access major environmental reserves along the coast. An ecological design proposal to broaden the process consisted with both government aspirations and regional ecological parameters - termed Regional Landscape Strategies - would allow the existing Environmental Impact Asessment to be modified alone potentially more practicable and effective lines.

Ecological design with respect to the environment of large-scale marina developments in Queensland

Ecological principles have been employed to assist in the sustainability of a suite of 'gateway' marinas currently being developed in Queensland. Tasks included (a) location and fostering of core remnant native vegetation areas, (b) understanding the dynamic patterns of region behaviour using the ecological strategies employed by key flora and fauna species, (c) promoting those native wildlife species best characterising the region, and (d) allocating management actions along elongated buffer zones to the catchment headwaters (rather than only peripheral to the property). The design of infrastructure and its relationship to sustainable landscape development is lacking such a response int eh planning and detailing of new marinas. This paper distinguishes between the practice of landscape ecology and the design of ecological landscapes, offering examples of the principles of the latter in support of the concept of ecological landscape practice.

Assessing exposure to polybrominated diphenyl ethers (PBDEs) for workers in the vicinity of a large recycling facility

Increased levels of polybrominated diphenyl ethers (PBDEs) can occur particularly in dust and soil surrounding facilities that recycle products containing PBDEs. This may be the source of increased exposure for nearby workers and residents. To investigate, we measured PBDE levels in soil, office dust and blood of workers at the closest workplace (i.e. within 100m) to a large automotive shredding and metal recycling facility in Brisbane, Australia. The workplace investigated in this study was independent of the automotive shredding facility and was one of approximately 50 businesses of varying types within a relatively large commercial/industrial area surrounding the recycling facility. Concentrations of PBDEs in soils were at least an order of magnitude greater than background levels in the area. Congener profiles were dominated by larger molecular weight congeners; in particular BDE-209. This reflected the profile in outdoor air samples previously collected at this site. Biomonitoring data from blood serum indicated no differential exposure for workers near the recycling facility compared to a reference group of office workers, also in Brisbane. Unlike air, indoor dust and soil sample profiles, serum samples from both worker groups were dominated by congeners BDE-47, BDE-153, BDE-99, BDE-100 and BDE-183 and was similar to the profile previously reported in the general Australian population. Estimated exposures for workers near the industrial point source suggested indoor workers had significantly higher exposure than outdoor workers due to their exposure to indoor dust rather than soil. However, no relationship was observed between blood PBDE levels and different roles and activity patterns of workers on-site. These comparisons of PBDE levels in serum provide additional insight into the inter-individual variability within Australia. Results also indicate congener patterns in the workplace environment did not match blood profiles of workers. This was attributed to the relatively high background exposures for the general Australian population via dietary intake and the home environment.

Supplementary material : large scale read classification for next generation sequencing

Next Generation Sequencing (NGS) has revolutionised molecular biology, resulting in an explosion of data sets and an increasing role in clinical practice. Such applications necessarily require rapid identification of the organism as a prelude to annotation and further analysis. NGS data consist of a substantial number of short sequence reads, given context through downstream assembly and annotation, a process requiring reads consistent with the assumed species or species group. Highly accurate results have been obtained for restricted sets using SVM classifiers, but such methods are difficult to parallelise and success depends on careful attention to feature selection. This work examines the problem at very large scale, using a mix of synthetic and real data with a view to determining the overall structure of the problem and the effectiveness of parallel ensembles of simpler classifiers (principally random forests) in addressing the challenges of large scale genomics.

Small angle X-ray scattering mapping and kinetics study of sub-critical CO2 sorption by two Australian coals

Time- and position-resolved synchrotron small angle X-ray scattering data were acquired from samples of two Australian coal seams: Bulli seam (Bulli 4, Ro=1.42%, Sydney Basin), which naturally contains CO2 and Baralaba seam (Ro=0.67%, Bowen Basin), a potential candidate for sequestering CO2. This experimental approach has provided unique, pore-size-specific insights into the kinetics of CO2 sorption in the micro- and small mesopores (diameter 5 to 175 Å) and the density of the sorbed CO2 at reservoir-like conditions of temperature and hydrostatic pressure. For both samples, at pressures above 5 bar, the density of CO2 confined in pores was found to be uniform, with no densification in near-wall regions. In the Bulli 4 sample, CO2 first flooded the slit pores between polyaromatic sheets. In the pore-size range analysed, the confined CO2 density was close to that of the free CO2. The kinetics data are too noisy for reliable quantitative analysis, but qualitatively indicate faster kinetics in mineral-matter-rich regions. In the Baralaba sample, CO2 preferentially invaded the smallest micropores and the confined CO2 density was up to five times that of the free CO2. Faster CO2 sorption kinetics was found to be correlated with higher mineral matter content but, the mineral-matter-rich regions had lower-density CO2 confined in their pores. Remarkably, the kinetics was pore-size dependent, being faster for smaller pores. These results suggest that injection into the permeable section of an interbedded coal-clastic sequence could provide a viable combination of reasonable injectivity and high sorption capacity.

Optimizing solar collector tilt angle to improve energy harvesting in a solar cooling system

Solar cooling systems are gaining popularity due to continuously increasing of energy costs around the world. However, there are still some factors that are hindering the installation of solar cooling systems on a larger scale. One being the cost associated with the solar collectors required to provide heat to the absorption chiller. This study demonstrates the possibility of reducing the number of solar panels in a residential solar cooling system based on evacuated tubes producing hot water at a low temperature (90 °C) and a water-ammonia absorption chiller.

Reflections on tomorrow’s menu : evidence for inpatient meal preferences at a large tertiary public hospital

There are limited studies that describe patient meal preferences in hospital; however this data is critical to develop menus that address satisfaction and nutrition whilst balancing resources. This quality study aimed to determine preferences for meals and snacks to inform a comprehensive menu revision in a large (929 bed) tertiary public hospital. The method was based on Vivanti et al. (2008) with data collected by two final year dietetic students. The first survey comprised 72 questions, achieved a response rate of 68% (n = 192), with the second more focused at 47 questions achieving a higher response rate of 93% (n = 212). Findings showed over half the patients reporting poor or less than normal appetite, 20% describing taste issues, over a third with a LOS >7 days, a third with a MST _ 2 and less than half eating only from the general menu. Soup then toast was most frequently reported as eaten at home when unwell, and whilst most reported not missing any foods when in hospital (25%), steak was most commonly missed. Hot breakfasts were desired by the majority (63%), with over half preferring toast (even if cold). In relation to snacks, nearly half (48%) wanted something more substantial than tea/coffee/biscuits, with sandwiches (54%) and soup (33%) being suggested. Sandwiches at the evening meal were not popular (6%). Difficulties with using cutlery and meal size selection were identified as issues. Findings from this study had high utility and supported a collaborative and evidenced based approach to a successful major menu change for the hospital.

Variation in risk seeking behaviour following large losses : a natural experiment

This study explores people's risk taking behaviour after having suffered large real-world losses following a natural disaster. Using the margins of the 2011 Australian floods (Brisbane) as a natural experimental setting, we find that homeowners who were victims of the floods and face large losses in property values are 50% more likely to opt for a risky gamble -- a scratch card giving a small chance of a large gain ($500,000) -- than for a sure amount of comparable value ($10). This finding is consistent with prospect theory predictions regarding the adoption of a risk-seeking attitude after a loss.

Enhancing learning in large undergraduate classes using custom made audio-visual cases

This is an exploratory study into the effective use of embedding custom made audiovisual case studies (AVCS) in enhancing the student’s learning experience. This paper describes a project that used AVCS for a large divergent cohort of undergraduate students, enrolled in an International Business course. The study makes a number of key contributions to advancing learning and teaching within the discipline. AVCS provide first hand reporting of the case material, where the students have the ability to improve their understanding from both verbal and nonverbal cues. The paper demonstrates how AVCS can be embedded in a student-centred teaching approach to capture the students’ interest and to enhance a deep approach to learning by providing real-world authentic experience.

Reducing complexity of large EPCs

Business processes are an important instrument for understanding and improving how companies provide goods and services to customers. Therefore, many companies have documented their business processes well, often in the Event-driven Process Chains (EPC). Unfortunately, in many cases the resulting EPCs are rather complex, so that the overall process logic is hidden in low level process details. This paper proposes abstraction mechanisms for process models that aim to reduce their complexity, while keeping the overall process structure. We assume that functions are marked with efforts and splits are marked with probabilities. This information is used to separate important process parts from less important ones. Real world process models are used to validate the approach.

Improved healing of large segmental defects in the rat femur by reverse dynamization in the presence of bone morphogenetic protein-2

Background Large segmental defects in bone do not heal well and present clinical challenges. This study investigated modulation of the mechanical environment as a means of improving bone healing in the presence of bone morphogenetic protein (BMP)-2. Although the influence of mechanical forces on the healing of fractures is well established, no previous studies, to our knowledge, have described their influence on the healing of large segmental defects. We hypothesized that bone-healing would be improved by initial, low-stiffness fixation of the defect, followed by high-stiffness fixation during the healing process. We call this reverse dynamization. Methods A rat model of a critical-sized femoral defect was used. External fixators were constructed to provide different degrees of stiffness and, importantly, the ability to change stiffness during the healing process in vivo. Healing of the critical-sized defects was initiated by the implantation of 11 mg of recombinant human BMP (rhBMP)-2 on a collagen sponge. Groups of rats receiving BMP-2 were allowed to heal with low, medium, and high-stiffness fixators, as well as under conditions of reverse dynamization, in which the stiffness was changed from low to high at two weeks. Healing was assessed at eight weeks with use of radiographs, histological analysis, microcomputed tomography, dual x-ray absorptiometry, and mechanical testing. Results Under constant stiffness, the low-stiffness fixator produced the best healing after eight weeks. However, reverse dynamization provided considerable improvement, resulting in a marked acceleration of the healing process by all of the criteria of this study. The histological data suggest that this was the result of intramembranous, rather than endochondral, ossification. Conclusions Reverse dynamization accelerated healing in the presence of BMP-2 in the rat femur and is worthy of further investigation as a means of improving the healing of large segmental bone defects. Clinical Relevance These data provide the basis of a novel, simple, and inexpensive way to improve the healing of critical-sized defects in long bones. Reverse dynamization may also be applicable to other circumstances in which bonehealing is problematic.

Energy-based nonlinear control of ship roll gyro-stabiliser with precession angle constraints

In this paper, we consider a passivity-based approach for the design of a control law of multiple ship-roll gyro-stabiliser units. We extend previous work on control of ship roll gyro-stabilisation by considering the problem within a nonlinear framework. In particular, we derive an energy-based model using the port-Hamiltonian theory and then design an active precession controller using passivity-based control interconnection and damping assignment. The design considers the possibility of having multiple gyro-stabiliser units, and the desired potential energy of the system (in closed loop) is chosen to behave like a barrier function, which allows us to enforce constraints on the precession angle of the gyros.