Urinary incontinence in the prediction of falls in hospitalized elderly

Objective Analyzing the effect of urinary incontinence as a predictor of the incidence of falls among hospitalized elderly. Method Concurrent cohort study where 221 elderly inpatients were followed from the date of admission until discharge, death or fall. The Kaplan-Meier methods, the incidence density and the Cox regression model were used for the survival analysis and the assessment of the association between the exposure variable and the other variables. Results Urinary incontinence was a strong predictor of falls in the surveyed elderly, and was associated with shorter time until the occurrence of event. Urinary incontinence, concomitant with gait and balance dysfunction and use of antipsychotics was associated with falls. Conclusion Measures to prevent the risk of falls specific to hospitalized elderly patients who have urinary incontinence are necessary.



A novel vasopressin-induced transcript promotes MAP kinase activation and ENaC downregulation.

In the principal cell of the renal collecting duct, vasopressin regulates the expression of a gene network responsible for sodium and water reabsorption through the regulation of the water channel and the epithelial sodium channel (ENaC). We have recently identified a novel vasopressin-induced transcript (VIT32) that encodes for a 142 amino acid vasopressin-induced protein (VIP32), which has no homology with any protein of known function. The Xenopus oocyte expression system revealed two functions: (i) when injected alone, VIT32 cRNA rapidly induces oocyte meiotic maturation through the activation of the maturation promoting factor, the amphibian homolog of the universal M phase trigger Cdc2/cyclin; and (ii) when co-injected with the ENaC, VIT32 cRNA selectively downregulates channel activity, but not channel cell surface expression. In the kidney principal cell, VIP32 may be involved in the downregulation of transepithelial sodium transport observed within a few hours after vasopressin treatment. VIP32 belongs to a novel gene family ubiquitously expressed in oocyte and somatic cells that may be involved in G to M transition and cell cycling.

Prediction de l'année 1649. sur l'emprisonnement du prince du sang, surnommé la Cuirasse

[Mazarinade. 1650]

Strategies for sequential prediction of stationary time series

We present simple procedures for the prediction of a real valued sequence. The algorithms are based on a combinationof several simple predictors. We show that if the sequence is a realization of a bounded stationary and ergodic random process then the average of squared errors converges, almost surely, to that of the optimum, given by the Bayes predictor. We offer an analog result for the prediction of stationary gaussian processes.

Angiotensin II-induced cardiac hypertrophy is associated with different mitogen-activated protein kinase activation in normotensive and hypertensive mice.

OBJECTIVE: In addition to its haemodynamic effects, angiotensin II (AngII) is thought to contribute to the development of cardiac hypertrophy via its growth factor properties. The activation of mitogen-activated protein kinases (MAPK) is crucial for stimulating cardiac growth. Therefore, the present study aimed to determine whether the trophic effects of AngII and the AngII-induced haemodynamic load were associated with specific cardiac MAPK pathways during the development of hypertrophy. Methods The activation of the extracellular-signal-regulated kinase (ERK), the c-jun N-terminal kinase (JNK) and the p38 kinase was followed in the heart of normotensive and hypertensive transgenic mice with AngII-mediated cardiac hypertrophy. Secondly, we used physiological models of AngII-dependent and AngII-independent renovascular hypertension to study the activation of cardiac MAPK pathways during the development of hypertrophy. RESULTS: In normotensive transgenic animals with AngII-induced cardiac hypertrophy, p38 activation is associated with the development of hypertrophy while ERK and JNK are modestly stimulated. In hypertensive transgenic mice, further activation of ERK and JNK is observed. Moreover, in the AngII-independent model of renovascular hypertension and cardiac hypertrophy, p38 is not activated while ERK and JNK are strongly stimulated. In contrast, in the AngII-dependent model, all three kinases are stimulated. CONCLUSIONS: These data suggest that p38 activation is preferentially associated with the direct effects of AngII on cardiac cells, whereas stimulation of ERK and JNK occurs in association with AngII-induced mechanical stress.

On prediction of individual sequences

Sequential randomized prediction of an arbitrary binary sequence isinvestigated. No assumption is made on the mechanism of generating the bit sequence. The goal of the predictor is to minimize its relative loss, i.e., to make (almost) as few mistakes as the best ``expert'' in a fixed, possibly infinite, set of experts. We point out a surprising connection between this prediction problem and empirical process theory. First, in the special case of static (memoryless) experts, we completely characterize the minimax relative loss in terms of the maximum of an associated Rademacher process. Then we show general upper and lower bounds on the minimaxrelative loss in terms of the geometry of the class of experts. As main examples, we determine the exact order of magnitude of the minimax relative loss for the class of autoregressive linear predictors and for the class of Markov experts.

Neuroprotection by inhibiting the c-Jun N-terminal kinase pathway after cerebral ischemia occurs independently of interleukin-6 and keratinocyte-derived chemokine (KC/CXCL1) secretion.

BACKGROUND: Cerebral ischemia is associated with the activation of glial cells, infiltration of leukocytes and an increase in inflammatory mediators in the ischemic brain and systemic circulation. How this inflammatory response influences lesion size and neurological outcome remains unclear. D-JNKI1, an inhibitor of the c-Jun N-terminal kinase pathway, is strongly neuroprotective in animal models of stroke. Intriguingly, the protection mediated by D-JNKI1 is high even with intravenous administration at very low doses with undetectable drug levels in the brain, pointing to a systemic mode of action, perhaps on inflammation. FINDINGS: We evaluated whether D-JNKI1, administered intravenously 3 h after the onset of middle cerebral artery occlusion (MCAO), modulates secretion of the inflammatory mediators interleukin-6 and keratinocyte-derived chemokine in the plasma and from the spleen and brain at several time points after MCAO. We found an early release of both mediators in the systemic circulation followed by an increase in the brain and went on to show a later systemic increase in vehicle-treated mice. Release of interleukin-6 and keratinocyte-derived chemokine from the spleen of mice with MCAO was not significantly different from sham mice. Interestingly, the secretion of these inflammatory mediators was not altered in the systemic circulation or brain after successful neuroprotection with D-JNKI1. CONCLUSIONS: We demonstrate that neuroprotection with D-JNKI1 after experimental cerebral ischemia is independent of systemic and brain release of interleukin-6 and keratinocyte-derived chemokine. Furthermore, our findings suggest that the early systemic release of interleukin-6 and keratinocyte-derived chemokine may not necessarily predict an unfavorable outcome in this model.

Implementation study of a clinical prediction score to rule out cardiogenic chest pain in community: Cluster randomized trial

1.1 Fundamentals Chest pain is a common complaint in primary care patients (1 to 3% of all consultations) (1) and its aetiology can be miscellaneous, from harmless to potentially life threatening conditions. In primary care practice, the most prevalent aetiologies are: chest wall syndrome (43%), coronary heart disease (12%) and anxiety (7%) (2). In up to 20% of cases, potentially serious conditions as cardiac, respiratory or neoplasic diseases underlie chest pain. In this context, a large number of laboratory tests are run (42%) and over 16% of patients are referred to a specialist or hospitalized (2).¦A cardiovascular origin to chest pain can threaten patient's life and investigations run to exclude a serious condition can be expensive and involve a large number of exams or referral to specialist -­‐ often without real clinical need. In emergency settings, up to 80% of chest pains in patients are due to cardiovascular events (3) and scoring methods have been developed to identify conditions such as coronary heart disease (HD) quickly and efficiently (4-­‐6). In primary care, a cardiovascular origin is present in only about 12% of patients with chest pain (2) and general practitioners (GPs) need to exclude as safely as possible a potential serious condition underlying chest pain. A simple clinical prediction rule (CPR) like those available in emergency settings may therefore help GPs and spare time and extra investigations in ruling out CHD in primary care patients. Such a tool may also help GPs reassure patients with more common origin to chest pain.

Charge dependent substrate activity of C3' and N3 functionalized, organometallic technetium and rhenium-labeled thymidine derivatives toward human thymidine kinase 1.

Human cytosolic thymidine kinase (hTK1) has proven to be a suitable target for the noninvasive imaging of cancer cell proliferation using radiolabeled thymidine analogues such as [(18)F]3'-fluoro-3'-deoxythymidine ([(18)F]FLT). A thymidine analogue for single photon emission computed tomography (SPECT), which incorporates the readily available and inexpensive nuclide technetium-99m, would be of considerable practical interest. hTK1 is known to accommodate modification of the structure of the natural substrate thymidine at the positions N3 and C3' and, to a lesser extent, C5. In this work, we used the copper-catalyzed azide-alkyne cycloaddition to synthesize two series of derivatives in which thymidine is functionalized at either the C3' or N3 position with chelating systems suitable for the M(CO)(3) core (M = (99m)Tc, Re). The click chemistry approach enabled complexes with different structures and overall charges to be synthesized from a common precursor. Using this strategy, the first organometallic hTK1 substrates in which thymidine is modified at the C3' position were identified. Phosphorylation of the organometallic derivatives was measured relative to thymidine. We have shown that the influence of the overall charge of the derivatives is dependent on the position of functionalization. In the case of the C3'-functionalized derivatives, neutral and anionic substrates were most readily phosphorylated (20-28% of the value for the parent ligand thymidine), whereas for the N3-functionalized derivatives, cationic and neutral complexes were apparently better substrates for the enzyme (14-18%) than anionic derivatives (9%).

Markers of atherosclerosis and inflammation for prediction of coronary heart disease in older adults.

Although both inflammatory and atherosclerosis markers have been associated with coronary heart disease (CHD) risk, data directly comparing their predictive value are limited. The authors compared the value of 2 atherosclerosis markers (ankle-arm index (AAI) and aortic pulse wave velocity (aPWV)) and 3 inflammatory markers (C-reactive protein (CRP), interleukin-6 (IL-6), and tumor necrosis factor-alpha (TNF-alpha)) in predicting CHD events. Among 2,191 adults aged 70-79 years at baseline (1997-1998) from the Health, Aging, and Body Composition Study cohort, the authors examined adjudicated incident myocardial infarction or CHD death ("hard" events) and "hard" events plus hospitalization for angina or coronary revascularization (total CHD events). During 8 years of follow-up between 1997-1998 and June 2007, 351 participants developed total CHD events (197 "hard" events). IL-6 (highest quartile vs. lowest: hazard ratio = 1.82, 95% confidence interval: 1.33, 2.49; P-trend < 0.001) and AAI (AAI </= 0.9 vs. AAI 1.01-1.30: hazard ratio = 1.57, 95% confidence interval: 1.14, 2.18) predicted CHD events above traditional risk factors and modestly improved global measures of predictive accuracy. CRP, TNF-alpha, and aPWV had weaker associations. IL-6 and AAI accurately reclassified 6.6% and 3.3% of participants, respectively (P's </= 0.05). Results were similar for "hard" CHD, with higher reclassification rates for AAI. IL-6 and AAI are associated with future CHD events beyond traditional risk factors and modestly improve risk prediction in older adults.

Robust response transformations based on optimal prediction

Nonlinear regression problems can often be reduced to linearity by transforming the response variable (e.g., using the Box-Cox family of transformations). The classic estimates of the parameter defining the transformation as well as of the regression coefficients are based on the maximum likelihood criterion, assuming homoscedastic normal errors for the transformed response. These estimates are nonrobust in the presence of outliers and can be inconsistent when the errors are nonnormal or heteroscedastic. This article proposes new robust estimates that are consistent and asymptotically normal for any unimodal and homoscedastic error distribution. For this purpose, a robust version of conditional expectation is introduced for which the prediction mean squared error is replaced with an M scale. This concept is then used to develop a nonparametric criterion to estimate the transformation parameter as well as the regression coefficients. A finite sample estimate of this criterion based on a robust version of smearing is also proposed. Monte Carlo experiments show that the new estimates compare favorably with respect to the available competitors.

Accounting information and the prediction of farm viability

Until recently farm management made little use of accounting and agriculture has been largely excluded from the scope of accounting standards. This article examines the current use of accounting in agriculture and points theneed to establish accounting standards for agriculture. Empirical evidence shows that accounting can make a significant contribution to agricultural management and farm viability and could also be important for other agents involved in agricultural decision making. Existing literature on failureprediction models and farm viability prediction studies provide the starting point for our research, in which two dichotomous logit models were applied to subsamples of viable and unviable farms in Catalonia, Spain. The firstmodel considered only non-financial variables, while the other also considered financial ones. When accounting variables were added to the model, a significant reduction in deviance was observed.

The cdc7 protein kinase is a dosage dependent regulator of septum formation in fission yeast.

Mutation of the Schizosaccharomyces pombe cdc7 gene prevents formation of the division septum and cytokinesis. We have cloned the cdc7 gene and show that it encodes a protein kinase which is essential for cell division. In the absence of cdc7 function, spore germination, DNA synthesis and mitosis are unaffected, but cells are unable to initiate formation of the division septum. Overexpression of p120cdc7 causes cell cycle arrest; cells complete mitosis and then undergo multiple rounds of septum formation without cell cleavage. This phenotype, which is similar to that resulting from inactivation of cdc16 protein, requires the kinase activity of p120cdc7. Mutations inactivating the early septation gene, cdc11, suppress the formation of multiple septa and allow cells to proliferate normally. If formation of the division septum is prevented by inactivation of either cdc14 or cdc15, p120cdc7 overproduction does not interfere with other events in the mitotic cell cycle. Septation is not induced by overexpression of p120cdc7 in G2 arrested cells, indicating that it does not bypass the normal dependency of septation upon initiation of mitosis. These findings indicate that the p120cdc7 protein kinase plays a key role in initiation of septum formation and cytokinesis in fission yeast and suggest that p120cdc7 interacts with the cdc11 protein in the control of septation.

Improving generalized regression analysis for the spatial prediction of forest communities

Aim This study used data from temperate forest communities to assess: (1) five different stepwise selection methods with generalized additive models, (2) the effect of weighting absences to ensure a prevalence of 0.5, (3) the effect of limiting absences beyond the environmental envelope defined by presences, (4) four different methods for incorporating spatial autocorrelation, and (5) the effect of integrating an interaction factor defined by a regression tree on the residuals of an initial environmental model. Location State of Vaud, western Switzerland. Methods Generalized additive models (GAMs) were fitted using the grasp package (generalized regression analysis and spatial predictions, http://www.cscf.ch/grasp). Results Model selection based on cross-validation appeared to be the best compromise between model stability and performance (parsimony) among the five methods tested. Weighting absences returned models that perform better than models fitted with the original sample prevalence. This appeared to be mainly due to the impact of very low prevalence values on evaluation statistics. Removing zeroes beyond the range of presences on main environmental gradients changed the set of selected predictors, and potentially their response curve shape. Moreover, removing zeroes slightly improved model performance and stability when compared with the baseline model on the same data set. Incorporating a spatial trend predictor improved model performance and stability significantly. Even better models were obtained when including local spatial autocorrelation. A novel approach to include interactions proved to be an efficient way to account for interactions between all predictors at once. Main conclusions Models and spatial predictions of 18 forest communities were significantly improved by using either: (1) cross-validation as a model selection method, (2) weighted absences, (3) limited absences, (4) predictors accounting for spatial autocorrelation, or (5) a factor variable accounting for interactions between all predictors. The final choice of model strategy should depend on the nature of the available data and the specific study aims. Statistical evaluation is useful in searching for the best modelling practice. However, one should not neglect to consider the shapes and interpretability of response curves, as well as the resulting spatial predictions in the final assessment.

Variations in IB1/JIP1 expression regulate susceptibility of beta-cells to cytokine-induced apoptosis irrespective of C-Jun NH2-terminal kinase signaling.

We previously reported that interleukin-1beta (IL-1beta) alone does not cause apoptosis of beta-cells, whereas when combined with gamma-interferon (IFN-gamma) and tumor necrosis factor-alpha (TNF-alpha), it exerts a distinct apoptotic effect. Studies in beta-cell lines indicated that IL-1beta reduced expression of islet brain (IB)-1/JNK interacting protein (JIP)-1, a JNK scaffold protein with antiapoptotic action. We examined whether variations in IB1/JIP-1 expression in purified primary beta-cells affect their susceptibility to cytokine-induced apoptosis. Exposure to IL-1beta for 24 h decreased cellular IB1/JIP-1 content by 66 +/- 17%; this IL-1beta effect was maintained in the presence of TNF-alpha + IFN-gamma, which did not influence IB1/JIP-1 levels by themselves. Addition of IL-1beta to TNF-alpha + IFN-gamma increased apoptosis from 20 +/- 2% to 59 +/- 5%. A similar increase in TNF-alpha + IFN-gamma-induced apoptosis was produced by adenoviral expression of antisense IB1/JIP-1 and was not further enhanced by addition of IL-1beta, indicating that IL-1beta-mediated suppression of IB1/JIP-1 in beta-cells increases their susceptibility to cytokine-induced apoptosis. However, adenovirally mediated overexpression of IB1/JIP-1 also potentiated TNF-alpha + IFN-gamma-induced apoptosis, suggesting that the antiapoptotic effect of IB1/JIP-1 depends on well-defined cellular levels. We conclude that the IB1/JIP-1 level in beta-cells can control their susceptibility to apoptosis independent of JNK signaling.