Comparative Analysis between Statistical and Artificial Intelligence Models in Business Failure Prediction

A growing number of predicting corporate failure models has emerged since 60s. Economic and social consequences of business failure can be dramatic, thus it is not surprise that the issue has been of growing interest in academic research as well as in business context. The main purpose of this study is to compare the predictive ability of five developed models based on three statistical techniques (Discriminant Analysis, Logit and Probit) and two models based on Artificial Intelligence (Neural Networks and Rough Sets). The five models were employed to a dataset of 420 non-bankrupt firms and 125 bankrupt firms belonging to the textile and clothing industry, over the period 2003–09. Results show that all the models performed well, with an overall correct classification level higher than 90%, and a type II error always less than 2%. The type I error increases as we move away from the year prior to failure. Our models contribute to the discussion of corporate financial distress causes. Moreover it can be used to assist decisions of creditors, investors and auditors. Additionally, this research can be of great contribution to devisers of national economic policies that aim to reduce industrial unemployment.

The internationally standardized process of public accounting: the perspective of different stakeholders in Portugal

New Public Management (NPM) led to great pressures for to introduce and adapt businesslike accounting in the public sector (Hood, 1995; Lapsley, 2008; Lapsley et al., 2009), specially the transition from cash basis to accrual-based accounting. In consequence, since the last 20 years we assist to a movement towards internationally standardized of public sector accounting that led to the publication of 32 International Public Sector Accounting Standards (IPSAS) for all public sector entities from national central governments to local governments (IFAC, 2008). These standards are accrual-basis and they emphasize the balance sheet approach, the fair value measurement and the revenue-expense approach (Hints, 2007). The main innovations are associated with the use of the balance sheet approach and the fair value measurement because, traditionally, public accounting systems are mainly focused on the revenue-expense approach and on historical cost valuation (Oulasvirta, 2014).

Applications of artificial intelligence to condition-based maintenance

In this paper we discuss interesting developments of expert systems for machine diagnosis and condition-based maintenance. We review some elements of condition-based maintenance and its applications, expert systems for machine diagnosis, and an example of machine diagnosis. In the last section we note some problems to be resolved so that expert systems for machine diagnosis may gain wider acceptance in the future.

How middle managers contribute to strategy formation process: connection of strategy processes and strategy practices

The role of middle management is essential when managing integrative and emergent strategy formation processes. We stand out the importance of its role connecting micro and macro organizational level offering a very important contribution when examining the strategy-as-practice perspective and integrative strategy formation process. The main goal of this research is to analyse the relationship between the integrative strategy formation process and the roles of middle management under the strategy-as-practice perspective. To check it out we adopted a qualitative methodology droving a case analysis in a Spanish University. Data was collected by means of personal interviews with members of different levels of the Institution, documents analysis and direct observation. In advance of some results we find out that the University develops an integrative strategy formation process and confers to middle management an important role extended all over the organization.

Inteligência emocional e satisfação com a vida

RESUMO: O constructo Inteligência Emocional tem gerado um interesse crescente na Psicologia, e de um modo simplificado pode descrever-se como a capacidade que as pessoas têm para processar e utilizar informação carregada de afecto. Com este estudo pretendeu-se estudar as relações entre a Inteligência Emocional e a Satisfação com a Vida. Estudou-se também a natureza do teste Trait Meta-Mood Scale (TMMS). Foi utilizada uma amostra composta por 586 participantes, 212 do sexo masculino, com média de idade 34.55 (DP=14.77), e 374 do sexo feminino, com média de idade 33.28 (DP=15.21). Em relação à natureza do Trait Meta-Mood Scale, os resultados obtidos não foram totalmente de encontro aos resultados de estudos anteriores, tendo-se conhecido um novo factor, o Desprendimento Emocional e tendo desaparecido o factor Reparação Emocional. No que diz respeito à relação entre os factores da Inteligência Emocional encontrados no Trait Meta-Mood Scale, e a Satisfação com a Vida, encontrou-se uma correlação negativa e significativa com o Desprendimento Emocional, e uma correlação positiva e significativa com a Atenção Emocional e com a Clareza Emocional. Encontrou-se também uma correlação positiva e estatisticamente significativa entre a Inteligência Emocional e a Satisfação com a Vida, o que era esperado. ABSTRACT: The Emotional Intelligence construct has been creating a rising interest in psychology, in a simplified way it can be described like the hability that people have to process and utilize affection loaded information. In this study, it was pretended to study the relations between Emotional Intelligence and Life Satisfaction. It has also been studied the nature of the Trait Meta-Mood Scale (TMMS). The used sample was composed by 586 participants, 212 males, with an average age of 34.55 years old (DP=14.77) and 374 females, with an average age of 33.28 years old (DP=15.21). Relative to the nature of Trait Meta-Mood Scale, the results did not totally met previous investigations, with a new factor, the Emotional Falling, and having a vanished factor, the Emotional Repair. Due to the relation between the Emotional Intelligence factors found in the Trait Meta-Mood Scale, and Life Satisfaction, it was found a negative and significant correlation with the Emotional Falling and a positive and significant correlation with the Emotional Attention and the Emotional Clarity. It was also found a positive and significant correlation between Emotional Intelligence and Life Satisfaction that was previously expected.

The process of implementing answerability in contemporary Brazil

Abstract: The aim of this study was to characterize the trajectory of answerability in Brazil. In the light of studies based on the historical neo-institutionalism approach, formal institutional changes adopted at federal level between 1985 and 2014, and which favor the typical requirements of answerability - information and justification - were identified and analyzed through the content analysis technique. The conclusion is that the trajectory of answerability in contemporary Brazil can be characterized as continuous, primarily occurring through the layering strategy, and whose leitmotif, since its origin, has consisted of matters of financial and budgetary nature. Nevertheless, a recent influence of deeper democratic subjects on it has been observed.

Building intelligence open systems (BIOS)

Os edifícios estão a ser construídos com um número crescente de sistemas de automação e controlo não integrados entre si. Esta falta de integração resulta num caos tecnológico, o que cria dificuldades nas três fases da vida de um edifício, a fase de estudo, a de implementação e a de exploração. O desenvolvimento de Building Automation System (BAS) tem como objectivo assegurar condições de conforto, segurança e economia de energia. Em edifícios de grandes dimensões a energia pode representar uma percentagem significativa da factura energética anual. Um BAS integrado deverá contribuir para uma diminuição significativa dos custos de desenvolvimento, instalação e gestão do edifício, o que pode também contribuir para a redução de CO2. O objectivo da arquitectura proposta é contribuir para uma estratégia de integração que permita a gestão integrada dos diversos subsistemas do edifício (e.g. aquecimento, ventilação e ar condicionado (AVAC), iluminação, segurança, etc.). Para realizar este controlo integrado é necessário estabelecer uma estratégia de cooperação entre os subsistemas envolvidos. Um dos desafios para desenvolver um BAS com estas características consistirá em estabelecer a interoperabilidade entre os subsistemas como um dos principais objectivos a alcançar, dado que o fornecimento dos referidos subsistemas assenta normalmente numa filosofia multi-fornecedor, sendo desenvolvidos usando tecnologias heterogéneas. Desta forma, o presente trabalho consistiu no desenvolvimento de uma plataforma que se designou por Building Intelligence Open System (BIOS). Na implementação desta plataforma adoptou-se uma arquitectura orientada a serviços ou Service Oriented Architecture (SOA) constituída por quatro elementos fundamentais: um bus cooperativo, denominado BIOSbus, implementado usando Jini e JavaSpaces, onde todos os serviços serão ligados, disponibilizando um mecanismo de descoberta e um mecanismo que notificada as entidades interessadas sobre alterações do estado de determinado componente; serviços de comunicação que asseguram a abstracção do Hardware utilizado da automatização das diversas funcionalidades do edifício; serviços de abstracção de subsistemas no acesso ao bus; clientes, este podem ser nomeadamente uma interface gráfica onde é possível fazer a gestão integrada do edifício, cliente de coordenação que oferece a interoperabilidade entre subsistemas e os serviços de gestão energética que possibilita a activação de algoritmos de gestão racional de energia eléctrica.

The portuguese insurance industry: basis for strategic process decision

Nowadays, the Portuguese insurance industry operates in a market with a much more aggressive structure than a few decades ago. Markets and the economy have become globalised since the last decade of the 20th century. Market forces have gradually shifted – power is now mainly on the demand side. In order to meet the new requirements, the insurance industry must develop a strong strategic ability to respond to constant changes of the new international economic order.One of the basic aspects of this strategic development will focus on the ability to predict the future. We introduce the subject by briefly describing the sector, its organisational structure in the Portuguese market, and challenges arising from the development of the European Union. We then analyse the economic and financial structure of the sector. From this point of view, we aim at the possibility of designing models that could explain the demand for insurance, claims and technical reserves evolution. Such models, (even if based on the past), would resolve, at least partly, one of the greatest difficulties experienced by insurance companies when estimating the budget. Thus, we examine the existence of variables that explain the previous points, which are capable of forming a basis for designing models that are simple but efficient, and can be used for strategic planning.

Framework genérica de business intelligence para suporte financeiro

Actualmente, não existem ferramentas open source de Business Intelligence (BI) para suporte à gestão e análise financeira nas empresas, de acordo com o sistema de normalização contabilística (SNC). As diferentes características de cada negócio, juntamente com os requisitos impostos pelo SNC, tornam complexa a criação de uma Framework financeira genérica, que satisfaça, de forma eficiente, as análises financeiras necessárias à gestão das empresas. O objectivo deste projecto é propor uma framework baseada em OLAP, capaz de dar suporte à gestão contabilística e análise financeira, recorrendo exclusivamente a software open source na sua implementação, especificamente, a plataforma Pentaho. Toda a informação contabilística, obtida através da contabilidade geral, da contabilidade analítica, da gestão orçamental e da análise financeira é armazenada num Data mart. Este Data mart suportará toda a análise financeira, incluindo a análise de desvios orçamentais e de fluxo de capitais, permitindo às empresas ter uma ferramenta de BI, compatível com o SNC, que as ajude na tomada de decisões.

Agent Inferencing Meets the Semantic Web

We provide all agent; the capability to infer the relations (assertions) entailed by the rules that, describe the formal semantics of art RDFS knowledge-base. The proposed inferencing process formulates each semantic restriction as a rule implemented within a, SPARQL query statement. The process expands the original RDF graph into a fuller graph that. explicitly captures the rule's described semantics. The approach is currently being explored in order to support descriptions that follow the generic Semantic Web Rule Language. An experiment, using the Fire-Brigade domain, a small-scale knowledge-base, is adopted to illustrate the agent modeling method and the inferencing process.

RF Receiver Front End for 28.5 GHz Applications on a 70 GHz F-T SiGe BiCMOS Process

This article presents the design and test of a receiver front end aimed at LMDS applications at 28.5 GHz. It presents a system-level design after which the receiver was designed. The receiver comprises an LNA, quadrature mixer and quadrature local oscillator. Experimental results at 24 GHz center frequency show a conversion voltage gain of 15 dB and conversion noise figure of 14 5 dB. The receiver operates from a 2 5 V power supply with a total current consumption of 31 mA.

RFID together with multi-agent systems to control global value chains

Nowadays, the cooperative intelligent transport systems are part of a largest system. Transportations are modal operations integrated in logistics and, logistics is the main process of the supply chain management. The supply chain strategic management as a simultaneous local and global value chain is a collaborative/cooperative organization of stakeholders, many times in co-opetition, to perform a service to the customers respecting the time, place, price and quality levels. The transportation, like other logistics operations must add value, which is achieved in this case through compression lead times and order fulfillments. The complex supplier's network and the distribution channels must be efficient and the integral visibility (monitoring and tracing) of supply chain is a significant source of competitive advantage. Nowadays, the competition is not discussed between companies but among supply chains. This paper aims to evidence the current and emerging manufacturing and logistics system challenges as a new field of opportunities for the automation and control systems research community. Furthermore, the paper forecasts the use of radio frequency identification (RFID) technologies integrated into an information and communication technologies (ICT) framework based on distributed artificial intelligence (DAI) supported by a multi-agent system (MAS), as the most value advantage of supply chain management (SCM) in a cooperative intelligent logistics systems. Logistical platforms (production or distribution) as nodes of added value of supplying and distribution networks are proposed as critical points of the visibility of the inventory, where these technological needs are more evident.

Innovation through virtual communities of Practice: motivation and constraints in the knowledge-creation process

Communities of Practice are places which provide a sound basis for organizational learning, enabling knowledge creation and acquisition thus improving organizational performance, leveraging innovation and consequently increasing competitively. Virtual Communities of Practice (VCoP‟s) can perform a central role in promoting communication and collaboration between members who are dispersed in both time and space. The ongoing case study, described here, aims to identify both the motivations and the constraints that members of an organization experience when taking part in the knowledge creating processes of the VCoP‟s to which they belong. Based on a literature review, we have identified several factors that influence such processes; they will be used to analyse the results of interviews carried out with the leaders of VCoP‟s in four multinationals. As future work, a questionnaire will be developed and administered to the other members of these VCoP‟s

CVD of CrO(2): Towards a lower temperature deposition process

The deposition of highly oriented a-axis CrO(2) films onto Al(2)O(3)(0001) by atmospheric pressure (AP)CVD at temperatures as low as 330 C is reported. Deposition rates strongly depend on the substrate temperature, whereas for film surface microstructures the dependence is mainly on film thickness. For the experimental conditions used in this work, CrO(2) growth kinetics are dominated by a surface reaction mechanism with an apparent activation energy of (121.0 +/- 4.3) kJ mol(-1). The magnitude and temperature dependence of the saturation magnetization, up to room temperature, is consistent with bulk measurements.