Development and validation of a risk model for prediction of hazardous alcohol consumption in general practice attendees : the PredictAL study

Background: Little is known about the risk of progression to hazardous alcohol use in people currently drinking at safe limits. We aimed to develop a prediction model (predictAL) for the development of hazardous drinking in safe drinkers. Methods: A prospective cohort study of adult general practice attendees in six European countries and Chile followed up over 6 months. We recruited 10,045 attendees between April 2003 to February 2005. 6193 European and 2462 Chilean attendees recorded AUDIT scores below 8 in men and 5 in women at recruitment and were used in modelling risk. 38 risk factors were measured to construct a risk model for the development of hazardous drinking using stepwise logistic regression. The model was corrected for over fitting and tested in an external population. The main outcome was hazardous drinking defined by an AUDIT score >= 8 in men and >= 5 in women. Results: 69.0% of attendees were recruited, of whom 89.5% participated again after six months. The risk factors in the final predictAL model were sex, age, country, baseline AUDIT score, panic syndrome and lifetime alcohol problem. The predictAL model's average c-index across all six European countries was 0.839 (95% CI 0.805, 0.873). The Hedge's g effect size for the difference in log odds of predicted probability between safe drinkers in Europe who subsequently developed hazardous alcohol use and those who did not was 1.38 (95% CI 1.25, 1.51). External validation of the algorithm in Chilean safe drinkers resulted in a c-index of 0.781 (95% CI 0.717, 0.846) and Hedge's g of 0.68 (95% CI 0.57, 0.78). Conclusions: The predictAL risk model for development of hazardous consumption in safe drinkers compares favourably with risk algorithms for disorders in other medical settings and can be a useful first step in prevention of alcohol misuse.

Acute Kidney Injury after Pediatric Cardiac Surgery: Risk Factors and Outcomes. Proposal for a Predictive Model

Objectives: To characterize the epidemiology and risk factors for acute kidney injury (AKI) after pediatric cardiac surgery in our center, to determine its association with poor short-term outcomes, and to develop a logistic regression model that will predict the risk of AKI for the study population. Methods: This single-center, retrospective study included consecutive pediatric patients with congenital heart disease who underwent cardiac surgery between January 2010 and December 2012. Exclusion criteria were a history of renal disease, dialysis or renal transplantation. Results: Of the 325 patients included, median age three years (1 day---18 years), AKI occurred in 40 (12.3%) on the first postoperative day. Overall mortality was 13 (4%), nine of whom were in the AKI group. AKI was significantly associated with length of intensive care unit stay, length of mechanical ventilation and in-hospital death (p<0.01). Patients’ age and postoperative serum creatinine, blood urea nitrogen and lactate levels were included in the logistic regression model as predictor variables. The model accurately predicted AKI in this population, with a maximum combined sensitivity of 82.1% and specificity of 75.4%. Conclusions: AKI is common and is associated with poor short-term outcomes in this setting. Younger age and higher postoperative serum creatinine, blood urea nitrogen and lactate levels were powerful predictors of renal injury in this population. The proposed model could be a useful tool for risk stratification of these patients.

Determinants and Consequences of Dehumanization: An Interspecies Model of Prejudice

Dehumanizing ideologies that explicitly liken other humans to “inferior” animals can have negative consequences for intergroup attitudes and relations. Surprisingly, very little is known about the causes of dehumanization, and essentially no research has examined strategies for reducing dehumanizing tendencies. The Interspecies Model of Prejudice specifies that animalistic dehumanization may be rooted in basic hierarchical beliefs regarding human superiority over animals. This theoretical reasoning suggests that narrowing the human-animal divide should also reduce dehumanization. The purpose of the present dissertation, therefore, was to gain a more complete understanding of the predictors of and solutions to dehumanization by examining the Interspecies Model of Prejudice, first from a layperson’s perspective and then among young children. In Study 1, laypeople strongly rejected the human-animal divide as a probable cause of, or solution to, dehumanization, despite evidence that their own personal beliefs in the human-animal divide positively predicted their dehumanization (and prejudice) scores. From Study 1, it was concluded that the human-animal divide, despite being a robust empirical predictor of dehumanization, is largely unrecognized as a probable cause of, or solution to, dehumanization by non-experts in the psychology of prejudice. Studies 2 and 3 explored the expression of dehumanization, as well as the Interspecies Model of Prejudice, among children ages six to ten years (Studies 2 and 3) and parents (Study 3). Across both studies, White children showed evidence of racial dehumanization by attributing a Black child target fewer “uniquely human” characteristics than the White child target, representing the first systematic evidence of racial dehumanization among children. In Study 3, path analyses supported the Interspecies Model of Prejudice among children. Specifically, children’s beliefs in the human-animal divide predicted greater racial prejudice, an effect explained by heightened racial dehumanization. Moreover, parents’ Social Dominance Orientation (preference for social hierarchy and inequality) positively predicted children’s human-animal divide beliefs. Critically, these effects remained significant even after controlling for established predictors of child-prejudice (i.e., parent prejudice, authoritarian parenting, and social-cognitive skills) and relevant child demographics (i.e., age and sex). Similar patterns emerged among parent participants, further supporting the Interspecies Model of Prejudice. Encouragingly, children reported narrower human-animal divide perceptions after being exposed to an experimental prime (versus control) that highlighted the similarities among humans and animals. Together the three studies reported in this dissertation offer important and novel contributions to the dehumanization and prejudice literature. Not only did we find the first systematic evidence of racial dehumanization among children, we established the human-animal divide as a meaningful dehumanization precursor. Moreover, empirical support was obtained for the Interspecies Model of Prejudice among diverse samples including university students (Study 1), children (Studies 2 and 3), and adult-aged samples (Study 3). Importantly, each study also highlights the promising social implication of targeting the human-animal divide in interventions to reduce dehumanization and other prejudicial processes.

A game-theoretic network formation model

We study the dynamics of a game-theoretic network formation model that yields large-scale small-world networks. So far, mostly stochastic frameworks have been utilized to explain the emergence of these networks. On the other hand, it is natural to seek for game-theoretic network formation models in which links are formed due to strategic behaviors of individuals, rather than based on probabilities. Inspired by Even-Dar and Kearns (2007), we consider a more realistic model in which the cost of establishing each link is dynamically determined during the course of the game. Moreover, players are allowed to put transfer payments on the formation of links. Also, they must pay a maintenance cost to sustain their direct links during the game. We show that there is a small diameter of at most 4 in the general set of equilibrium networks in our model. Unlike earlier model, not only the existence of equilibrium networks is guaranteed in our model, but also these networks coincide with the outcomes of pairwise Nash equilibrium in network formation. Furthermore, we provide a network formation simulation that generates small-world networks. We also analyze the impact of locating players in a hierarchical structure by constructing a strategic model, where a complete b-ary tree is the seed network.

An analogue of the logistic map in two dimensions

This is a sequel to our earlier work on the modulated logistic map. Here, we first show that the map comes under the universality class of Feigenbaum. We then give evidence for the fact that our model can generate strange attractors in the unit square for an uncountable number of parameter values in the range μ∞<μ<1. Numerical plots of the attractor for several values of μ are given and the self-similar structure is explicity shown in one case. The fractal and information dimensions of the attractors for many values of μ are shown to be greater than one and the variation in their structure is analysed using the two Lyapunov exponents of the system. Our results suggest that the map can be considered as an analogue of the logistic map in two dimensions and may be useful in describing certain higher dimensional chaotic phenomena.

Investigations On The Development Of An Ann Model & Visual Manipulation Approach For 2-D Dft Computation In Image Processing

This thesis is an outcome of the investigations carried out on the development of an Artificial Neural Network (ANN) model to implement 2-D DFT at high speed. A new definition of 2-D DFT relation is presented. This new definition enables DFT computation organized in stages involving only real addition except at the final stage of computation. The number of stages is always fixed at 4. Two different strategies are proposed. 1) A visual representation of 2-D DFT coefficients. 2) A neural network approach. The visual representation scheme can be used to compute, analyze and manipulate 2D signals such as images in the frequency domain in terms of symbols derived from 2x2 DFT. This, in turn, can be represented in terms of real data. This approach can help analyze signals in the frequency domain even without computing the DFT coefficients. A hierarchical neural network model is developed to implement 2-D DFT. Presently, this model is capable of implementing 2-D DFT for a particular order N such that ((N))4 = 2. The model can be developed into one that can implement the 2-D DFT for any order N upto a set maximum limited by the hardware constraints. The reported method shows a potential in implementing the 2-D DF T in hardware as a VLSI / ASIC

Onset And Characterisation Of Chaos In A Two Dimensional Nonlinear Deterministic Model

Nature is full of phenomena which we call "chaotic", the weather being a prime example. What we mean by this is that we cannot predict it to any significant accuracy, either because the system is inherently complex, or because some of the governing factors are not deterministic. However, during recent years it has become clear that random behaviour can occur even in very simple systems with very few number of degrees of freedom, without any need for complexity or indeterminacy. The discovery that chaos can be generated even with the help of systems having completely deterministic rules - often models of natural phenomena - has stimulated a lo; of research interest recently. Not that this chaos has no underlying order, but it is of a subtle kind, that has taken a great deal of ingenuity to unravel. In the present thesis, the author introduce a new nonlinear model, a ‘modulated’ logistic map, and analyse it from the view point of ‘deterministic chaos‘.

Development of Hierarchical Clustering Techniques for Gridded Data from Mixed Data Sequences

Knowledge discovery in databases is the non-trivial process of identifying valid, novel potentially useful and ultimately understandable patterns from data. The term Data mining refers to the process which does the exploratory analysis on the data and builds some model on the data. To infer patterns from data, data mining involves different approaches like association rule mining, classification techniques or clustering techniques. Among the many data mining techniques, clustering plays a major role, since it helps to group the related data for assessing properties and drawing conclusions. Most of the clustering algorithms act on a dataset with uniform format, since the similarity or dissimilarity between the data points is a significant factor in finding out the clusters. If a dataset consists of mixed attributes, i.e. a combination of numerical and categorical variables, a preferred approach is to convert different formats into a uniform format. The research study explores the various techniques to convert the mixed data sets to a numerical equivalent, so as to make it equipped for applying the statistical and similar algorithms. The results of clustering mixed category data after conversion to numeric data type have been demonstrated using a crime data set. The thesis also proposes an extension to the well known algorithm for handling mixed data types, to deal with data sets having only categorical data. The proposed conversion has been validated on a data set corresponding to breast cancer. Moreover, another issue with the clustering process is the visualization of output. Different geometric techniques like scatter plot, or projection plots are available, but none of the techniques display the result projecting the whole database but rather demonstrate attribute-pair wise analysis

Some Aspects of Domain Specific Conceptual Modeling for Simulation of Logistic Terminal Operations

When simulation modeling is used for performance improvement studies of complex systems such as transport terminals, domain specific conceptual modeling constructs could be used by modelers to create structured models. A two stage procedure which includes identification of the problem characteristics/cluster - ‘knowledge acquisition’ and identification of standard models for the problem cluster – ‘model abstraction’ was found to be effective in creating structured models when applied to certain logistic terminal systems. In this paper we discuss some methods and examples related the knowledge acquisition and model abstraction stages for the development of three different types of model categories of terminal systems

A Hierarchical Cache Coherent Protocol

As the number of processors in distributed-memory multiprocessors grows, efficiently supporting a shared-memory programming model becomes difficult. We have designed the Protocol for Hierarchical Directories (PHD) to allow shared-memory support for systems containing massive numbers of processors. PHD eliminates bandwidth problems by using a scalable network, decreases hot-spots by not relying on a single point to distribute blocks, and uses a scalable amount of space for its directories. PHD provides a shared-memory model by synthesizing a global shared memory from the local memories of processors. PHD supports sequentially consistent read, write, and test- and-set operations. This thesis also introduces a method of describing locality for hierarchical protocols and employs this method in the derivation of an abstract model of the protocol behavior. An embedded model, based on the work of Johnson[ISCA19], describes the protocol behavior when mapped to a k-ary n-cube. The thesis uses these two models to study the average height in the hierarchy that operations reach, the longest path messages travel, the number of messages that operations generate, the inter-transaction issue time, and the protocol overhead for different locality parameters, degrees of multithreading, and machine sizes. We determine that multithreading is only useful for approximately two to four threads; any additional interleaving does not decrease the overall latency. For small machines and high locality applications, this limitation is due mainly to the length of the running threads. For large machines with medium to low locality, this limitation is due mainly to the protocol overhead being too large. Our study using the embedded model shows that in situations where the run length between references to shared memory is at least an order of magnitude longer than the time to process a single state transition in the protocol, applications exhibit good performance. If separate controllers for processing protocol requests are included, the protocol scales to 32k processor machines as long as the application exhibits hierarchical locality: at least 22% of the global references must be able to be satisfied locally; at most 35% of the global references are allowed to reach the top level of the hierarchy.

Biologically Plausible Neural Model for the Recognition of Biological Motion and Actions

The visual recognition of complex movements and actions is crucial for communication and survival in many species. Remarkable sensitivity and robustness of biological motion perception have been demonstrated in psychophysical experiments. In recent years, neurons and cortical areas involved in action recognition have been identified in neurophysiological and imaging studies. However, the detailed neural mechanisms that underlie the recognition of such complex movement patterns remain largely unknown. This paper reviews the experimental results and summarizes them in terms of a biologically plausible neural model. The model is based on the key assumption that action recognition is based on learned prototypical patterns and exploits information from the ventral and the dorsal pathway. The model makes specific predictions that motivate new experiments.

Face processing in humans is compatible with a simple shape-based model of vision

Understanding how the human visual system recognizes objects is one of the key challenges in neuroscience. Inspired by a large body of physiological evidence (Felleman and Van Essen, 1991; Hubel and Wiesel, 1962; Livingstone and Hubel, 1988; Tso et al., 2001; Zeki, 1993), a general class of recognition models has emerged which is based on a hierarchical organization of visual processing, with succeeding stages being sensitive to image features of increasing complexity (Hummel and Biederman, 1992; Riesenhuber and Poggio, 1999; Selfridge, 1959). However, these models appear to be incompatible with some well-known psychophysical results. Prominent among these are experiments investigating recognition impairments caused by vertical inversion of images, especially those of faces. It has been reported that faces that differ "featurally" are much easier to distinguish when inverted than those that differ "configurally" (Freire et al., 2000; Le Grand et al., 2001; Mondloch et al., 2002) ??finding that is difficult to reconcile with the aforementioned models. Here we show that after controlling for subjects' expectations, there is no difference between "featurally" and "configurally" transformed faces in terms of inversion effect. This result reinforces the plausibility of simple hierarchical models of object representation and recognition in cortex.

Possible solution of some essential zero problems in compositional data analysis

One of the tantalising remaining problems in compositional data analysis lies in how to deal with data sets in which there are components which are essential zeros. By an essential zero we mean a component which is truly zero, not something recorded as zero simply because the experimental design or the measuring instrument has not been sufficiently sensitive to detect a trace of the part. Such essential zeros occur in many compositional situations, such as household budget patterns, time budgets, palaeontological zonation studies, ecological abundance studies. Devices such as nonzero replacement and amalgamation are almost invariably ad hoc and unsuccessful in such situations. From consideration of such examples it seems sensible to build up a model in two stages, the first determining where the zeros will occur and the second how the unit available is distributed among the non-zero parts. In this paper we suggest two such models, an independent binomial conditional logistic normal model and a hierarchical dependent binomial conditional logistic normal model. The compositional data in such modelling consist of an incidence matrix and a conditional compositional matrix. Interesting statistical problems arise, such as the question of estimability of parameters, the nature of the computational process for the estimation of both the incidence and compositional parameters caused by the complexity of the subcompositional structure, the formation of meaningful hypotheses, and the devising of suitable testing methodology within a lattice of such essential zero-compositional hypotheses. The methodology is illustrated by application to both simulated and real compositional data

Multilevel multitrait-multimethod model: application to the measurement of egocentered social networks

Our goal in this paper is to assess reliability and validity of egocentered network data using multilevel analysis (Muthen, 1989, Hox, 1993) under the multitrait-multimethod approach. The confirmatory factor analysis model for multitrait-multimethod data (Werts & Linn, 1970; Andrews, 1984) is used for our analyses. In this study we reanalyse a part of data of another study (Kogovšek et al., 2002) done on a representative sample of the inhabitants of Ljubljana. The traits used in our article are the name interpreters. We consider egocentered network data as hierarchical; therefore a multilevel analysis is required. We use Muthen's partial maximum likelihood approach, called pseudobalanced solution (Muthen, 1989, 1990, 1994) which produces estimations close to maximum likelihood for large ego sample sizes (Hox & Mass, 2001). Several analyses will be done in order to compare this multilevel analysis to classic methods of analysis such as the ones made in Kogovšek et al. (2002), who analysed the data only at group (ego) level considering averages of all alters within the ego. We show that some of the results obtained by classic methods are biased and that multilevel analysis provides more detailed information that much enriches the interpretation of reliability and validity of hierarchical data. Within and between-ego reliabilities and validities and other related quality measures are defined, computed and interpreted

Small-area variation in health care affecting the choice of cesarean delivery: the case of a Colombian health insurer

In the midst of health care reform, Colombia has succeeded in increasing health insurance coverage and the quality of health care. In spite of this, efficiency continues to be a matter of concern, and small-area variations in health care are one of the plausible causes of such inefficiencies. In order to understand this issue, we use individual data of all births from a Contributory-Regimen insurer in Colombia. We perform two different specifications of a multilevel logistic regression model. Our results reveal that hospitals account for 20% of variation on the probability of performing cesarean sections. Geographic area only explains 1/3 of the variance attributable to the hospital. Furthermore, some variables from both demand and supply sides are found to be also relevant on the probability of undergoing cesarean sections. This paper contributes to previous research by using a hierarchical model and by defining hospitals as cluster. Moreover, we also include clinical and supply induced demand variables.