Regional avian species declines estimated from volunteer-collected long-term data using List Length Analysis

Long-term systematic population monitoring data sets are rare but are essential in identifying changes in species abundance. In contrast, community groups and natural history organizations have collected many species lists. These represent a large, untapped source of information on changes in abundance but are generally considered of little value. The major problem with using species lists to detect population changes is that the amount of effort used to obtain the list is often uncontrolled and usually unknown. It has been suggested that using the number of species on the list, the "list length," can be a measure of effort. This paper significantly extends the utility of Franklin's approach using Bayesian logistic regression. We demonstrate the value of List Length Analysis to model changes in species prevalence (i.e., the proportion of lists on which the species occurs) using bird lists collected by a local bird club over 40 years around Brisbane, southeast Queensland, Australia. We estimate the magnitude and certainty of change for 269 bird species and calculate the probabilities that there have been declines and increases of given magnitudes. List Length Analysis confirmed suspected species declines and increases. This method is an important complement to systematically designed intensive monitoring schemes and provides a means of utilizing data that may otherwise be deemed useless. The results of List Length Analysis can be used for targeting species of conservation concern for listing purposes or for more intensive monitoring. While Bayesian methods are not essential for List Length Analysis, they can offer more flexibility in interrogating the data and are able to provide a range of parameters that are easy to interpret and can facilitate conservation listing and prioritization. © 2010 by the Ecological Society of America.

Transitioning to energy efficient vehicles: An analysis of the potential rebound effects and subsequent impact upon emissions

Given the shift toward energy efficient vehicles (EEVs) in recent years, it is important that the effects of this transition are properly examined. This paper investigates some of these effects by analyzing annual kilometers traveled (AKT) of private vehicle owners in Stockholm in 2008. The difference in emissions associated with EEV adoption is estimated, along with the effect of a congestion-pricing exemption for EEVs on vehicle usage. Propensity score matching is used to compare AKT rates of different vehicle owner groups based on the treatments of: EEV ownership and commuting across the cordon, controlling for confounding factors such as demographics. Through this procedure, rebound effects are identified, with some EEV owners found to have driven up to 12.2% further than non-EEV owners. Although some of these differences could be attributed to the congestion-pricing exemption, the results were not statistically significant. Overall, taking into account lifecycle emissions of each fuel type, average EEV emissions were 50.5% less than average non-EEV emissions, with this reduction in emissions offset by 2.0% due to rebound effects. Although it is important for policy-makers to consider the potential for unexpected negative effects in similar transitions, the overall benefit of greatly reduced emissions appears to outweigh any rebound effects present in this case study.

Global, regional, and national disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) for 306 diseases and injuries and healthy life expectancy (HALE) for 188 countries, 1990–2013: Quantifying the epidemiological transition

Background The Global Burden of Disease Study 2013 (GBD 2013) aims to bring together all available epidemiological data using a coherent measurement framework, standardised estimation methods, and transparent data sources to enable comparisons of health loss over time and across causes, age–sex groups, and countries. The GBD can be used to generate summary measures such as disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) and healthy life expectancy (HALE) that make possible comparative assessments of broad epidemiological patterns across countries and time. These summary measures can also be used to quantify the component of variation in epidemiology that is related to sociodemographic development. Methods We used the published GBD 2013 data for age-specific mortality, years of life lost due to premature mortality (YLLs), and years lived with disability (YLDs) to calculate DALYs and HALE for 1990, 1995, 2000, 2005, 2010, and 2013 for 188 countries. We calculated HALE using the Sullivan method; 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs) represent uncertainty in age-specific death rates and YLDs per person for each country, age, sex, and year. We estimated DALYs for 306 causes for each country as the sum of YLLs and YLDs; 95% UIs represent uncertainty in YLL and YLD rates. We quantified patterns of the epidemiological transition with a composite indicator of sociodemographic status, which we constructed from income per person, average years of schooling after age 15 years, and the total fertility rate and mean age of the population. We applied hierarchical regression to DALY rates by cause across countries to decompose variance related to the sociodemographic status variable, country, and time. Findings Worldwide, from 1990 to 2013, life expectancy at birth rose by 6·2 years (95% UI 5·6–6·6), from 65·3 years (65·0–65·6) in 1990 to 71·5 years (71·0–71·9) in 2013, HALE at birth rose by 5·4 years (4·9–5·8), from 56·9 years (54·5–59·1) to 62·3 years (59·7–64·8), total DALYs fell by 3·6% (0·3–7·4), and age-standardised DALY rates per 100 000 people fell by 26·7% (24·6–29·1). For communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional disorders, global DALY numbers, crude rates, and age-standardised rates have all declined between 1990 and 2013, whereas for non–communicable diseases, global DALYs have been increasing, DALY rates have remained nearly constant, and age-standardised DALY rates declined during the same period. From 2005 to 2013, the number of DALYs increased for most specific non-communicable diseases, including cardiovascular diseases and neoplasms, in addition to dengue, food-borne trematodes, and leishmaniasis; DALYs decreased for nearly all other causes. By 2013, the five leading causes of DALYs were ischaemic heart disease, lower respiratory infections, cerebrovascular disease, low back and neck pain, and road injuries. Sociodemographic status explained more than 50% of the variance between countries and over time for diarrhoea, lower respiratory infections, and other common infectious diseases; maternal disorders; neonatal disorders; nutritional deficiencies; other communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional diseases; musculoskeletal disorders; and other non-communicable diseases. However, sociodemographic status explained less than 10% of the variance in DALY rates for cardiovascular diseases; chronic respiratory diseases; cirrhosis; diabetes, urogenital, blood, and endocrine diseases; unintentional injuries; and self-harm and interpersonal violence. Predictably, increased sociodemographic status was associated with a shift in burden from YLLs to YLDs, driven by declines in YLLs and increases in YLDs from musculoskeletal disorders, neurological disorders, and mental and substance use disorders. In most country-specific estimates, the increase in life expectancy was greater than that in HALE. Leading causes of DALYs are highly variable across countries. Interpretation Global health is improving. Population growth and ageing have driven up numbers of DALYs, but crude rates have remained relatively constant, showing that progress in health does not mean fewer demands on health systems. The notion of an epidemiological transition—in which increasing sociodemographic status brings structured change in disease burden—is useful, but there is tremendous variation in burden of disease that is not associated with sociodemographic status. This further underscores the need for country-specific assessments of DALYs and HALE to appropriately inform health policy decisions and attendant actions.

Global, regional, and national comparative risk assessment of 79 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or clusters of risks in 188 countries, 1990–2013: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013

Background The Global Burden of Disease, Injuries, and Risk Factor study 2013 (GBD 2013) is the first of a series of annual updates of the GBD. Risk factor quantification, particularly of modifiable risk factors, can help to identify emerging threats to population health and opportunities for prevention. The GBD 2013 provides a timely opportunity to update the comparative risk assessment with new data for exposure, relative risks, and evidence on the appropriate counterfactual risk distribution. Methods Attributable deaths, years of life lost, years lived with disability, and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) have been estimated for 79 risks or clusters of risks using the GBD 2010 methods. Risk–outcome pairs meeting explicit evidence criteria were assessed for 188 countries for the period 1990–2013 by age and sex using three inputs: risk exposure, relative risks, and the theoretical minimum risk exposure level (TMREL). Risks are organised into a hierarchy with blocks of behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks at the first level of the hierarchy. The next level in the hierarchy includes nine clusters of related risks and two individual risks, with more detail provided at levels 3 and 4 of the hierarchy. Compared with GBD 2010, six new risk factors have been added: handwashing practices, occupational exposure to trichloroethylene, childhood wasting, childhood stunting, unsafe sex, and low glomerular filtration rate. For most risks, data for exposure were synthesised with a Bayesian meta-regression method, DisMod-MR 2.0, or spatial-temporal Gaussian process regression. Relative risks were based on meta-regressions of published cohort and intervention studies. Attributable burden for clusters of risks and all risks combined took into account evidence on the mediation of some risks such as high body-mass index (BMI) through other risks such as high systolic blood pressure and high cholesterol. Findings All risks combined account for 57·2% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 55·8–58·5) of deaths and 41·6% (40·1–43·0) of DALYs. Risks quantified account for 87·9% (86·5–89·3) of cardiovascular disease DALYs, ranging to a low of 0% for neonatal disorders and neglected tropical diseases and malaria. In terms of global DALYs in 2013, six risks or clusters of risks each caused more than 5% of DALYs: dietary risks accounting for 11·3 million deaths and 241·4 million DALYs, high systolic blood pressure for 10·4 million deaths and 208·1 million DALYs, child and maternal malnutrition for 1·7 million deaths and 176·9 million DALYs, tobacco smoke for 6·1 million deaths and 143·5 million DALYs, air pollution for 5·5 million deaths and 141·5 million DALYs, and high BMI for 4·4 million deaths and 134·0 million DALYs. Risk factor patterns vary across regions and countries and with time. In sub-Saharan Africa, the leading risk factors are child and maternal malnutrition, unsafe sex, and unsafe water, sanitation, and handwashing. In women, in nearly all countries in the Americas, north Africa, and the Middle East, and in many other high-income countries, high BMI is the leading risk factor, with high systolic blood pressure as the leading risk in most of Central and Eastern Europe and south and east Asia. For men, high systolic blood pressure or tobacco use are the leading risks in nearly all high-income countries, in north Africa and the Middle East, Europe, and Asia. For men and women, unsafe sex is the leading risk in a corridor from Kenya to South Africa. Interpretation Behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks can explain half of global mortality and more than one-third of global DALYs providing many opportunities for prevention. Of the larger risks, the attributable burden of high BMI has increased in the past 23 years. In view of the prominence of behavioural risk factors, behavioural and social science research on interventions for these risks should be strengthened. Many prevention and primary care policy options are available now to act on key risks.

A comparison of the performance and biological efficiency of new knapsack sprayers and a controlled droplet application (CDA) sprayer for the control of the diamondback moth, Plutella xylostella L. (Lepidoptera: Plutellidae)

Field trials and laboratory bioassays were undertaken to compare the performance and efficacy (mortality of diamondback moth larvae) of insecticides applied to cabbages with three high volume hydraulic knapsack sprayers (NS-16, PB-20 and Selecta 12V) and a controlled droplet application (CDA) sprayer. In field experiments, the high volume knapsack sprayers (application rate 500-600 L ha-') provided better spray coverage on the upper and lower surfaces of inner leaves, the upper surfaces of middle and outer leaves, and greater biological efficacy than the CDA sprayer (application rate 20~40 L ha-'). The PB-20 provided better spray coverage on the upper surface of middle leaves and both Surfaces of outer leaves when compared with the Selecta I2V. However, its biological efficacy in the field was not significantly different from that of the other high volume sprayers. Increasing the application rate from 20 to 40 L ha - ' for the CDA sprayer significantly increased droplet density but had no impact on test insect mortality. Laboratory evaluations of biological efficacy yielded higher estimates than field evaluations and there was no significant difference between the performance of the PB-20 and the CDA sprayer. Significant positive relationships were detected between insect mortality and droplet density deposited for both the PB-20 and the CDA sprayers

Mapping of adult plant resistance to net form of net blotch in three Australian barley populations

Net form of net blotch (NFNB), caused by Pyrenophora teres Drechs. f. teres Smedeg., is a serious disease problem for the barley industry in Australia and other parts of the world. Three doubled haploid barley populations, Alexis/Sloop, WI2875-1/Alexis, and Arapiles/Franklin, were used to identify genes conferring adult plant resistance to NFNB in field trials. Quantitative trait loci (QTLs) identified were specific for adult plant resistance because seedlings of the parental lines were susceptible to the NFNB isolates used in this study. QTLs were identified on chromosomes 2H, 3H, 4H, and 7H in both the Alexis/Sloop and WI2875-1/Alexis populations and on chromosomes 1H, 2H, and 7H in the Arapiles/Franklin population. Using QTLNetwork, epistatic interactions were identified between loci on chromosomes 3H and 6H in the Alexis/Sloop population, between 2H and 4H in the WI2875-1/Alexis population, and between 5H and 7H in the Arapiles/Franklin population. Comparisons with earlier studies of NFNB resistance indicate the pathotype-dependent nature of many resistance QTLs and the importance of establishing an international system of pathotype nomenclature and differential testing.

Eliciting and encoding expert knowledge on variable selection into classical or Bayesian species distribution models

The quality of species distribution models (SDMs) relies to a large degree on the quality of the input data, from bioclimatic indices to environmental and habitat descriptors (Austin, 2002). Recent reviews of SDM techniques, have sought to optimize predictive performance e.g. Elith et al., 2006. In general SDMs employ one of three approaches to variable selection. The simplest approach relies on the expert to select the variables, as in environmental niche models Nix, 1986 or a generalized linear model without variable selection (Miller and Franklin, 2002). A second approach explicitly incorporates variable selection into model fitting, which allows examination of particular combinations of variables. Examples include generalized linear or additive models with variable selection (Hastie et al. 2002); or classification trees with complexity or model based pruning (Breiman et al., 1984, Zeileis, 2008). A third approach uses model averaging, to summarize the overall contribution of a variable, without considering particular combinations. Examples include neural networks, boosted or bagged regression trees and Maximum Entropy as compared in Elith et al. 2006. Typically, users of SDMs will either consider a small number of variable sets, via the first approach, or else supply all of the candidate variables (often numbering more than a hundred) to the second or third approaches. Bayesian SDMs exist, with several methods for eliciting and encoding priors on model parameters (see review in Low Choy et al. 2010). However few methods have been published for informative variable selection; one example is Bayesian trees (O’Leary 2008). Here we report an elicitation protocol that helps makes explicit a priori expert judgements on the quality of candidate variables. This protocol can be flexibly applied to any of the three approaches to variable selection, described above, Bayesian or otherwise. We demonstrate how this information can be obtained then used to guide variable selection in classical or machine learning SDMs, or to define priors within Bayesian SDMs.

Post head-emergence frost resistance of barley genotypes in the northern grain region of Australia.

Post head-emergence frost causes substantial losses for Australian barley producers. Varieties with improved resistance would have a significant positive impact on Australian cropping enterprises. Five barley genotypes previously tested for reproductive frost resistance in southern Australia were tested, post head-emergence, in the northern grain region of Australia and compared with the typical northern control cultivars, Gilbert and Kaputar. All tested genotypes suffered severe damage to whole heads and stems at plant minimum temperatures less than -8degreesC. In 2003, 2004 and 2005, frost events reaching a plant minimum temperature of ~-6.5degreesC did not result in the complete loss of grain yield. Rather, partial seed set was observed. The control genotype, Gilbert, exhibited seed set that was greater than or equal to that of any genotype in each year, as did Kaputar when tested in 2005. Thus, Gilbert and Kaputar were at least as resistant as any tested genotype. This contrasts with trial results from the southern grain region where Gilbert was reported to be less resistant than Franklin, Amagi Nijo and Haruna Nijo. Hence, rankings for post head-emergence frost damage in the northern grain region differ from those previously reported. These results indicate that Franklin, Amagi Nijo and Haruna Nijo are not likely to provide useful sources of frost resistance or markers to develop improved varieties for the northern grain region of Australia.

Short- and long-term movement patterns in the freshwater whipray (Himantura dalyensis) determined by the signal processing of passive acoustic telemetry data.

Patterns of movement in aquatic animals reflect ecologically important behaviours. Cyclical changes in the abiotic environment influence these movements, but when multiple processes occur simultaneously, identifying which is responsible for the observed movement can be complex. Here we used acoustic telemetry and signal processing to define the abiotic processes responsible for movement patterns in freshwater whiprays (Himantura dalyensis). Acoustic transmitters were implanted into the whiprays and their movements detected over 12 months by an array of passive acoustic receivers, deployed throughout 64 km of the Wenlock River, Qld, Australia. The time of an individual's arrival and departure from each receiver detection field was used to estimate whipray location continuously throughout the study. This created a linear-movement-waveform for each whipray and signal processing revealed periodic components within the waveform. Correlation of movement periodograms with those from abiotic processes categorically illustrated that the diel cycle dominated the pattern of whipray movement during the wet season, whereas tidal and lunar cycles dominated during the dry season. The study methodology represents a valuable tool for objectively defining the relationship between abiotic processes and the movement patterns of free-ranging aquatic animals and is particularly expedient when periods of no detection exist within the animal location data.

How do you like America? 1800-1940

The memoirs were written in 2000 in California and contains some of the author's diary entries during the years of the family's emigration and reminiscences of the author's father. Detailed description of family history going back to the early 19th century. The author's grandfather Moses Stern had a rawproduct business in Gelsenkirchen, Westphalia. His father Max Stern took his graduate exam (Abitur) at the Jacobsohn boarding school in 1904 and was sent to a business school in Brussles, Belgium. Work in the family business M. Stern AG. World War One and rise of the family business with branches throughout Germany and offices in New York, London, Milan and Stockholm. Due to political unrest at the end of the war the business administration moved to Essen. Description of the family background of Beate Herzberg, the author's mother. Courtship of his parents and marriage in 1922. Birth of his sister Annelore in 1923. Martin Stern was born in 1924. Description of the family household and domestic life in a well-to-do family the 1920s. Friday visits to the synagogue and celebration of Jewish holidays. Vacations at the North sea and skiinig in the Alps. Martin attended a Jewish elementary school. Rising National Socialism. After Hitler came to power in 1933 the author's father immediately started preparations for the family's emigration, but was persuaded to stay by his family. Life under National Socialism. Martin attended Gymnasium and was one of only two Jewish students in his class. Antisemitic incidents. Private lessons in piano and Hebrew. Bar Mitzvah in 1937. Recollections of performances of the Kulturbund.

Joseph P. Chamberlain Papers 1933-1951

Correspondence, memoranda, reports and printed matter relating to Chamberlain's work with the following organizations: American Christian Committee for Refugees; Fort Ontario Refugee Shelter, Oswego, N.Y.; German Jewish Children's Aid; Intergovernmental Committee on Refugees; National Coordinating Committee; National Refugee Service; President's Advisory Committee on Political Refugees; War Refugee Board. Topics include Chamberlain's involvement with individual cases, visas, sponsorship, German-Jewish scholars, Intergovernmental Committee on Refugees at Evian, Bermuda Conference, Capital Transfer Plan for German-Austrian Refugees. Of particular interest are the minutes of the President's Advisory Committee, 1938-1943. Materials on settlement projects relating to Alaska, Argentina, Bolivia, Brazil, British Guiana, California, China, Colombia, Dominican Republic, Ecuador, Venezuela. Correspondents include Dean Acheson, Paul Baerwald, Joseph Beck, Francis K. Biddle, Bernard Dubin, Dwight D. Eisenhower, Felix Frankfurter, Cordell Hull, James Houghteling, Joseph C. Hyman, Ruth Learned, James G. McDonald, Clarence E. Pickett, Leland Robinson, William Rosenwald, Joseph F. Rummel, E.J. Shaughnessy, Felix Warburg, George L. Warren.

Board of Delegates of American Israelites records 1859-1881, 1887, 1932

Contains printed copies of the 1860 constitution and by-laws, copies of proceedings and annual reports, 1859-1877, of the Board of Delegates; report on Jews in Roumania, an 1874 annual report of the Hebrew Benevolent and Orphan Asylum Society, manuscript minute books and minutes of meetings, 1859-1876, resolutions, executive, financial, ritual slaughtering and other special committee reports, newspaper clippings and correspondence with synagogues and organizations in the U.S. who constitute the membership of the Board of Delegates, with the Union of American Hebrew Congregations with whom they later merged, the Union's Board of Delegates of Civil and Religious Rights, and with individuals and organizations in foreign countries including the Alliance Israelite Universelle, the Anglo-Jewish Association, the Board of Deputies of British Jews, the Committee for the Roumanian Jews (Berlin), the Koenigsberg Committee, and the London Roumanian Committee.

Franks family papers, 1711-1821, [1965-1968].

Contains business correspondence, accounts and documents relating to Jacob Franks of New York, his two sons, Moses and David, a nephew, Isaac, and a John Franks of Halifax, possibly a member of the family.

Philip Slomovitz papers, undated, 1933-1966.

Contains correspondence as editor of the Detroit Jewish chronicle and of The Jewish news. Of special interest is the correspondence with members of the U.S. Congress relating to aid to Israel, material relating to the boycott of Viceroy cigarettes, the question of the Jewish descent of Franklin Delano Roosevelt, and the dictionary definition of "Jew."

Elihu Stone collection undated, 1913-1962.

Collection contains materials pertaining to the life and work of Stone.