Non-exponential return time distributions for vorticity extremes explained by fractional Poisson processes

Serial correlation of extreme midlatitude cyclones observed at the storm track exits is explained by deviations from a Poisson process. To model these deviations, we apply fractional Poisson processes (FPPs) to extreme midlatitude cyclones, which are defined by the 850 hPa relative vorticity of the ERA interim reanalysis during boreal winter (DJF) and summer (JJA) seasons. Extremes are defined by a 99% quantile threshold in the grid-point time series. In general, FPPs are based on long-term memory and lead to non-exponential return time distributions. The return times are described by a Weibull distribution to approximate the Mittag–Leffler function in the FPPs. The Weibull shape parameter yields a dispersion parameter that agrees with results found for midlatitude cyclones. The memory of the FPP, which is determined by detrended fluctuation analysis, provides an independent estimate for the shape parameter. Thus, the analysis exhibits a concise framework of the deviation from Poisson statistics (by a dispersion parameter), non-exponential return times and memory (correlation) on the basis of a single parameter. The results have potential implications for the predictability of extreme cyclones.

Fractional Flow Reserve–Guided PCI for Stable Coronary Artery Disease

Background We hypothesized that in patients with stable coronary artery disease and stenosis, percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI) performed on the basis of the fractional flow reserve (FFR) would be superior to medical therapy. Methods In 1220 patients with stable coronary artery disease, we assessed the FFR in all stenoses that were visible on angiography. Patients who had at least one stenosis with an FFR of 0.80 or less were randomly assigned to undergo FFR-guided PCI plus medical therapy or to receive medical therapy alone. Patients in whom all stenoses had an FFR of more than 0.80 received medical therapy alone and were included in a registry. The primary end point was a composite of death from any cause, nonfatal myocardial infarction, or urgent revascularization within 2 years. Results The rate of the primary end point was significantly lower in the PCI group than in the medical-therapy group (8.1% vs. 19.5%; hazard ratio, 0.39; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.26 to 0.57; P<0.001). This reduction was driven by a lower rate of urgent revascularization in the PCI group (4.0% vs. 16.3%; hazard ratio, 0.23; 95% CI, 0.14 to 0.38; P<0.001), with no significant between-group differences in the rates of death and myocardial infarction. Urgent revascularizations that were triggered by myocardial infarction or ischemic changes on electrocardiography were less frequent in the PCI group (3.4% vs. 7.0%, P=0.01). In a landmark analysis, the rate of death or myocardial infection from 8 days to 2 years was lower in the PCI group than in the medical-therapy group (4.6% vs. 8.0%, P=0.04). Among registry patients, the rate of the primary end point was 9.0% at 2 years. Conclusions In patients with stable coronary artery disease, FFR-guided PCI, as compared with medical therapy alone, improved the outcome. Patients without ischemia had a favorable outcome with medical therapy alone. (Funded by St. Jude Medical; FAME 2 ClinicalTrials.gov number, NCT01132495 .).

Glomerular filtration rate, urine production, and fractional clearance of electrolytes in acute kidney injury in dogs and their association with survival.

BACKGROUND Acute kidney injury (AKI) is common in dogs. Few studies have assessed sequential changes in indices of kidney function in dogs with naturally occurring AKI. OBJECTIVE To document sequential changes of conventional indices of renal function, to better define the course of AKI, and to identify a candidate marker for recovery. ANIMALS Ten dogs with AKI. METHODS Dogs were prospectively enrolled and divided into surviving and nonsurviving dogs. Urine production was measured with a closed system for 7 days. One and 24-hour urinary clearances were performed daily to estimate solute excretion and glomerular filtration rate (GFR). Solute excretion was calculated as an excretion ratio (ER) and fractional clearance (FC) based on both the 1- and 24-hour urine collections. RESULTS Four dogs survived and 6 died. At presentation, GFR was not significantly different between the outcome groups, but significantly (P = .03) increased over time in the surviving, but not in the nonsurviving dogs. Fractional clearance of Na decreased significantly over time (20.2-9.4%, P < .0001) in the surviving, but not in the nonsurviving dogs. The ER and FC of solutes were highly correlated (r, 0.70-0.95). CONCLUSION AND CLINICAL IMPACT Excretion ratio might be used in the clinical setting as a surrogate marker to follow trends in solute excretion. Increased GFR, urine production, and decreased FC of Na were markers of renal recovery. The FC of Na is a simple, noninvasive, and cost-effective method that can be used to evaluate recovery of renal function.

A generalisation of the fractional Brownian field based on non-Euclidean norms

We explore a generalisation of the L´evy fractional Brownian field on the Euclidean space based on replacing the Euclidean norm with another norm. A characterisation result for admissible norms yields a complete description of all self-similar Gaussian random fields with stationary increments. Several integral representations of the introduced random fields are derived. In a similar vein, several non-Euclidean variants of the fractional Poisson field are introduced and it is shown that they share the covariance structure with the fractional Brownian field and converge to it. The shape parameters of the Poisson and Brownian variants are related by convex geometry transforms, namely the radial pth mean body and the polar projection transforms.

Line Integrals and Work in Thermodynamics

This paper considers line integration in the context of elementary thermodynamics, ending with irreversible to reversible work integrations (employing, in part, L'Hopital's rule).

Interim analysis of clinical trials: Simulation studies of fractional Brownian motion

Interim clinical trial monitoring procedures were motivated by ethical and economic considerations. Classical Brownian motion (Bm) techniques for statistical monitoring of clinical trials were widely used. Conditional power argument and α-spending function based boundary crossing probabilities are popular statistical hypothesis testing procedures under the assumption of Brownian motion. However, it is not rare that the assumptions of Brownian motion are only partially met for trial data. Therefore, I used a more generalized form of stochastic process, called fractional Brownian motion (fBm), to model the test statistics. Fractional Brownian motion does not hold Markov property and future observations depend not only on the present observations but also on the past ones. In this dissertation, we simulated a wide range of fBm data, e.g., H = 0.5 (that is, classical Bm) vs. 0.5< H <1, with treatment effects vs. without treatment effects. Then the performance of conditional power and boundary-crossing based interim analyses were compared by assuming that the data follow Bm or fBm. Our simulation study suggested that the conditional power or boundaries under fBm assumptions are generally higher than those under Bm assumptions when H > 0.5 and also matches better with the empirical results. ^

Element concentration and GDGT fractional abundances of sediment core GeoB3910-2

In dieser Arbeit wurde das Zeitintervall zwischen 20 und 10 ka vor heute einschließlich des Heinrichevent 1 und der Younger Dryas am Kern GeoB 3910-2 neu untersucht. An organischen Parametern, basierend auf der Verteilung von bakteriellen GDGTs, und Elementkonzentrationen wurde eine Rekonstruktion der klimatischen Bedingungen und Veränderungen im Hinterland von NO Brasilien durchgeführt. Es zeigt sich, dass sich die durchschnittliche Landtemperatur gleich der Oberflächenwassertemperatur verhält und im Gegensatz zu den Phasen von H6 bis H2 dem antarktischen Erwärmungstrend ab 17 ka vor heute folgt. Weiterhin konnte gezeigt werden, dass durch die südwärts Verlagerung der ITCZ während H1 und der YD die Niederschläge in NO Brasilen intensiviert wurden, was eine Ausbreitung der Flüsse und Änderung der Erosionsgebiete zur Folge hatte.

Hourly averages of corrected light scattering integrals in six wavelength investigated during the Atlantic Expedition of RV "Meteor" 1969 (Table 2)

With a 6-channel integrating nephelometer spectral scattering properties of the atmospheric aerosol have been measured during the third part of the Atlantic Expedition 1969. A meridional cross section of light scattering integrals in the wavelength range 0.475 µm to 0.924 µm was recorded reaching from 10° S to 60° N along 30° W. With a new algorithm the time series of hourly scattering spectra was inverted yielding a first meridional cross section of the median radius of the number size distribution in situ. Three air mass regimes could be distinguished in the course of the experiment, the first one being the extremely clean air of the SE-trade south of the ITC. An abrupt increase in light scattering marked the hemispheric change when the ship entered the NE-trade which was heavily loaded with Sahara dust. North of the trade region the ship sailed through maritime North Atlantic air masses with highly variable light scattering and a slow decrease in median radius with latitude.

Fractional abundance and indices for brGDGTs and crenarchaeol in dust samples, surface water samples and surface sediment samples

Branched glycerol dialkyl glycerol tetraethers (brGDGTs) are membrane lipids produced by soil bacteria and occur in near coastal marine sediments as a result of soil organic matter input. Their abundance relative to marine-derived crenarchaeol, quantified in the BIT index, generally decreases offshore. However, in distal marine sediments, low relative amounts of brGDGTs can often still be observed. Sedimentary in situ production as well as dust input have been suggested as potential, though as yet not well constrained, sources. In this study brGDGT distributions in dust were examined and compared with those in distal marine sediments. Dust was sampled along the equatorial West African coast and brGDGTs were detected in most of the samples, albeit in low abundance. Their degree of methylation and cyclisation, expressed in the MBT' (methylation index of branched tetraethers) and DC (degree of cyclisation) indices, respectively, were comparable with those for African soils, their presumed source. Comparison of DC index values for brGDGTS in global soils, Congo deep-sea river fan sediments and dust with those of distal marine sediments clearly showed, however, that distal marine sediments had significantly higher values. This distinctive distribution is suggestive of sedimentary in situ production as a source of brGDGTs in marine sediments, rather than dust input. The presence of in situ produced brGDGTs in marine sediments means that caution should be exercised when applying the MBT'-CBT palaeothermometer to sediments with low BIT index values, i.e. < 0.1, based on our dataset.

A fractional vegetation cover remote sensing product on pan-arctic scale with link to geotiff image

The paper presents first results of a pan-boreal scale land cover harmonization and classification. A methodology is presented that combines global and regional vegetation datasets to extract percentage cover information for different vegetation physiognomy and barren for the pan-arctic region within the ESA Data User Element Permafrost. Based on the legend description of each land cover product the datasets are harmonized into four LCCS (Land Cover Classification System) classifiers which are linked to the MODIS Vegetation Continuous Field (VCF) product. Harmonized land cover and Vegetation Continuous Fields products are combined to derive a best estimate of percentage cover information for trees, shrubs, herbaceous and barren areas for Russia. Future work will concentrate on the expansion of the developed methodology to the pan-arctic scale. Since the vegetation builds an isolation layer, which protects the permafrost from heat and cold temperatures, a degradation of this layer due to fire strongly influences the frozen conditions in the soil. Fire is an important disturbance factor which affects vast processes and dynamics in ecosystems (e.g. biomass, biodiversity, hydrology, etc.). Especially in North Eurasia the fire occupancy has dramatically increased in the last 50 years and has doubled in the 1990s with respect to the last five decades. A comparison of global and regional fire products has shown discrepancies between the amounts of burn scars detected by different algorithms and satellite data.