Stratospheric dynamics and midlatitude jets under geoengineering with space mirrors and sulfate and titania aerosols

The impact on the dynamics of the stratosphere of three approaches to geoengineering by solar radiation management is investigated using idealized simulations of a global climate model. The approaches are geoengineering with sulfate aerosols, titania aerosols, and reduction in total solar irradiance (representing mirrors placed in space). If it were possible to use stratospheric aerosols to counterbalance the surface warming produced by a quadrupling of atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations, tropical lower stratospheric radiative heating would drive a thermal wind response which would intensify the stratospheric polar vortices. In the Northern Hemisphere this intensification results in strong dynamical cooling of the polar stratosphere. Northern Hemisphere stratospheric sudden warming events become rare (one and two in 65 years for sulfate and titania, respectively). The intensification of the polar vortices results in a poleward shift of the tropospheric midlatitude jets in winter. The aerosol radiative heating enhances the tropical upwelling in the lower stratosphere, influencing the strength of the Brewer-Dobson circulation. In contrast, solar dimming does not produce heating of the tropical lower stratosphere, and so there is little intensification of the polar vortex and no enhanced tropical upwelling. The dynamical response to titania aerosol is qualitatively similar to the response to sulfate.

Software evolution: a graph based model

A model based on graph isomorphisms is used to formalize software evolution. Step by step we narrow the search space by an informed selection of the attributes based on the current state-of-the-art in software engineering and generate a seed solution. We then traverse the resulting space using graph isomorphisms and other set operations over the vertex sets. The new solutions will preserve the desired attributes. The goal of defining an isomorphism based search mechanism is to construct predictors of evolution that can facilitate the automation of ’software factory’ paradigm. The model allows for automation via software tools implementing the concepts.

Unrestricted Skyrme-tensor time-dependent Hartree-Fock model and its application to the nuclear response from spherical to triaxial nuclei

The nuclear time-dependent Hartree-Fock model formulated in three-dimensional space, based on the full standard Skyrme energy density functional complemented with the tensor force, is presented. Full self-consistency is achieved by the model. The application to the isovector giant dipole resonance is discussed in the linear limit, ranging from spherical nuclei (16O and 120Sn) to systems displaying axial or triaxial deformation (24Mg, 28Si, 178Os, 190W and 238U). Particular attention is paid to the spin-dependent terms from the central sector of the functional, recently included together with the tensor. They turn out to be capable of producing a qualitative change on the strength distribution in this channel. The effect on the deformation properties is also discussed. The quantitative effects on the linear response are small and, overall, the giant dipole energy remains unaffected. Calculations are compared to predictions from the (quasi)-particle random-phase approximation and experimental data where available, finding good agreement

MetUM-GOML: a near-globally coupled atmosphere–ocean-mixed-layer model

Well-resolved air–sea interactions are simulated in a new ocean mixed-layer, coupled configuration of the Met Office Unified Model (MetUM-GOML), comprising the MetUM coupled to the Multi-Column K Profile Parameterization ocean (MC-KPP). This is the first globally coupled system which provides a vertically resolved, high near-surface resolution ocean at comparable computational cost to running in atmosphere-only mode. As well as being computationally inexpensive, this modelling framework is adaptable– the independent MC-KPP columns can be applied selectively in space and time – and controllable – by using temperature and salinity corrections the model can be constrained to any ocean state. The framework provides a powerful research tool for process-based studies of the impact of air–sea interactions in the global climate system. MetUM simulations have been performed which separate the impact of introducing inter- annual variability in sea surface temperatures (SSTs) from the impact of having atmosphere–ocean feedbacks. The representation of key aspects of tropical and extratropical variability are used to assess the performance of these simulations. Coupling the MetUM to MC-KPP is shown, for example, to reduce tropical precipitation biases, improve the propagation of, and spectral power associated with, the Madden–Julian Oscillation and produce closer-to-observed patterns of springtime blocking activity over the Euro-Atlantic region.

Software evolution: a graph based model

A model based on graph isomorphisms is used to formalize software evolution. Step by step we narrow the search space by an informed selection of the attributes based on the current state-of-the-art in software engineering and generate a seed solution. We then traverse the resulting space using graph isomorphisms and other set operations over the vertex sets. The new solutions will preserve the desired attributes. The goal of defining an isomorphism based search mechanism is to construct predictors of evolution that can facilitate the automation of ’software factory’ paradigm. The model allows for automation via software tools implementing the concepts.

Impact of Northern Hemisphere snow on the Arctic Ocean in a climate model

A present day control integration performed with the Hadley Centre's coupled climate model HadGEM1.2 experiences a large salinity bias in the Arctic Ocean when compared to in situ observations. Such a large salinity bias may have implications for both Arctic and Atlantic Ocean circulation. Large differences are seen between the runoff in HadGEM and the observations from the Global Runoff Data Centre, in particular in the Lena catchment, which could account for this salinity bias. We suggest that this discrepancy in runoff is, at least in part, due to a lack of snow accumulation in the model. The model climatology is very different to those obtained by remote sensing, such as the Global Snow Water Equivalent Climatology (NSIDC) and GlobSnow (ESA).

Assessing the reliability of probabilistic flood inundation model predictions

An ability to quantify the reliability of probabilistic flood inundation predictions is a requirement not only for guiding model development but also for their successful application. Probabilistic flood inundation predictions are usually produced by choosing a method of weighting the model parameter space, but previous study suggests that this choice leads to clear differences in inundation probabilities. This study aims to address the evaluation of the reliability of these probabilistic predictions. However, a lack of an adequate number of observations of flood inundation for a catchment limits the application of conventional methods of evaluating predictive reliability. Consequently, attempts have been made to assess the reliability of probabilistic predictions using multiple observations from a single flood event. Here, a LISFLOOD-FP hydraulic model of an extreme (>1 in 1000 years) flood event in Cockermouth, UK, is constructed and calibrated using multiple performance measures from both peak flood wrack mark data and aerial photography captured post-peak. These measures are used in weighting the parameter space to produce multiple probabilistic predictions for the event. Two methods of assessing the reliability of these probabilistic predictions using limited observations are utilized; an existing method assessing the binary pattern of flooding, and a method developed in this paper to assess predictions of water surface elevation. This study finds that the water surface elevation method has both a better diagnostic and discriminatory ability, but this result is likely to be sensitive to the unknown uncertainties in the upstream boundary condition

Improving the TanDEM-X Digital Elevation Model for flood modelling using flood extents from Synthetic Aperture Radar images

The topography of many floodplains in the developed world has now been surveyed with high resolution sensors such as airborne LiDAR (Light Detection and Ranging), giving accurate Digital Elevation Models (DEMs) that facilitate accurate flood inundation modelling. This is not always the case for remote rivers in developing countries. However, the accuracy of DEMs produced for modelling studies on such rivers should be enhanced in the near future by the high resolution TanDEM-X WorldDEM. In a parallel development, increasing use is now being made of flood extents derived from high resolution Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) images for calibrating, validating and assimilating observations into flood inundation models in order to improve these. This paper discusses an additional use of SAR flood extents, namely to improve the accuracy of the TanDEM-X DEM in the floodplain covered by the flood extents, thereby permanently improving this DEM for future flood modelling and other studies. The method is based on the fact that for larger rivers the water elevation generally changes only slowly along a reach, so that the boundary of the flood extent (the waterline) can be regarded locally as a quasi-contour. As a result, heights of adjacent pixels along a small section of waterline can be regarded as samples with a common population mean. The height of the central pixel in the section can be replaced with the average of these heights, leading to a more accurate estimate. While this will result in a reduction in the height errors along a waterline, the waterline is a linear feature in a two-dimensional space. However, improvements to the DEM heights between adjacent pairs of waterlines can also be made, because DEM heights enclosed by the higher waterline of a pair must be at least no higher than the corrected heights along the higher waterline, whereas DEM heights not enclosed by the lower waterline must in general be no lower than the corrected heights along the lower waterline. In addition, DEM heights between the higher and lower waterlines can also be assigned smaller errors because of the reduced errors on the corrected waterline heights. The method was tested on a section of the TanDEM-X Intermediate DEM (IDEM) covering an 11km reach of the Warwickshire Avon, England. Flood extents from four COSMO-SKyMed images were available at various stages of a flood in November 2012, and a LiDAR DEM was available for validation. In the area covered by the flood extents, the original IDEM heights had a mean difference from the corresponding LiDAR heights of 0.5 m with a standard deviation of 2.0 m, while the corrected heights had a mean difference of 0.3 m with standard deviation 1.2 m. These figures show that significant reductions in IDEM height bias and error can be made using the method, with the corrected error being only 60% of the original. Even if only a single SAR image obtained near the peak of the flood was used, the corrected error was only 66% of the original. The method should also be capable of improving the final TanDEM-X DEM and other DEMs, and may also be of use with data from the SWOT (Surface Water and Ocean Topography) satellite.

Sparse space-time boundary element methods for the heat equation

The goal of this work is the efficient solution of the heat equation with Dirichlet or Neumann boundary conditions using the Boundary Elements Method (BEM). Efficiently solving the heat equation is useful, as it is a simple model problem for other types of parabolic problems. In complicated spatial domains as often found in engineering, BEM can be beneficial since only the boundary of the domain has to be discretised. This makes BEM easier than domain methods such as finite elements and finite differences, conventionally combined with time-stepping schemes to solve this problem. The contribution of this work is to further decrease the complexity of solving the heat equation, leading both to speed gains (in CPU time) as well as requiring smaller amounts of memory to solve the same problem. To do this we will combine the complexity gains of boundary reduction by integral equation formulations with a discretisation using wavelet bases. This reduces the total work to O(h

Using data insertion with the NAME model to simulate the 8 May 2010 Eyjafjallajökull volcanic ash cloud

A data insertion method, where a dispersion model is initialized from ash properties derived from a series of satellite observations, is used to model the 8 May 2010 Eyjafjallajökull volcanic ash cloud which extended from Iceland to northern Spain. We also briefly discuss the application of this method to the April 2010 phase of the Eyjafjallajökull eruption and the May 2011 Grímsvötn eruption. An advantage of this method is that very little knowledge about the eruption itself is required because some of the usual eruption source parameters are not used. The method may therefore be useful for remote volcanoes where good satellite observations of the erupted material are available, but little is known about the properties of the actual eruption. It does, however, have a number of limitations related to the quality and availability of the observations. We demonstrate that, using certain configurations, the data insertion method is able to capture the structure of a thin filament of ash extending over northern Spain that is not fully captured by other modeling methods. It also verifies well against the satellite observations according to the quantitative object-based quality metric, SAL—structure, amplitude, location, and the spatial coverage metric, Figure of Merit in Space.

A METHOD FOR THE STUDY OF ACCRETION DISK EMISSION IN CATACLYSMIC VARIABLES. I. THE MODEL

We have developed a spectrum synthesis method for modeling the ultraviolet (UV) emission from the accretion disk from cataclysmic variables (CVs). The disk is separated into concentric rings, with an internal structure from the Wade & Hubeny disk-atmosphere models. For each ring, a wind atmosphere is calculated in the comoving frame with a vertical velocity structure obtained from a solution of the Euler equation. Using simple assumptions, regarding rotation and the wind streamlines, these one-dimensional models are combined into a single 2.5-dimensional model for which we compute synthetic spectra. We find that the resulting line and continuum behavior as a function of the orbital inclination is consistent with the observations, and verify that the accretion rate affects the wind temperature, leading to corresponding trends in the intensity of UV lines. In general, we also find that the primary mass has a strong effect on the P Cygni absorption profiles, the synthetic emission line profiles are strongly sensitive to the wind temperature structure, and an increase in the mass-loss rate enhances the resonance line intensities. Synthetic spectra were compared with UV data for two high orbital inclination nova-like CVs-RW Tri and V347 Pup. We needed to include disk regions with arbitrary enhanced mass loss to reproduce reasonably well widths and line profiles. This fact and a lack of flux in some high ionization lines may be the signature of the presence of density-enhanced regions in the wind, or alternatively, may result from inadequacies in some of our simplifying assumptions.

CDM accelerating cosmology as an alternative to Lambda CDM model

A new accelerating cosmology driven only by baryons plus cold dark matter (CDM) is proposed in the framework of general relativity. In this scenario the present accelerating stage of the Universe is powered by the negative pressure describing the gravitationally-induced particle production of cold dark matter particles. This kind of scenario has only one free parameter and the differential equation governing the evolution of the scale factor is exactly the same of the Lambda CDM model. For a spatially flat Universe, as predicted by inflation (Omega(dm) + Omega(baryon) = 1), it is found that the effectively observed matter density parameter is Omega(meff) = 1 - alpha, where alpha is the constant parameter specifying the CDM particle creation rate. The supernovae test based on the Union data (2008) requires alpha similar to 0.71 so that Omega(meff) similar to 0.29 as independently derived from weak gravitational lensing, the large scale structure and other complementary observations.

An orthotopic skull base model of malignant meningioma

Meningioma tumor growth involves the subarachnoid space that contains the cerebrospinal fluid. Modeling tumor growth in this microenvironment has been associated with widespread leptomeningeal dissemination, which is uncharacteristic of human meningiomas. Consequently, survival times and tumor properties are varied, limiting their utility in testing experimental therapies. We report the development and characterization of a reproducible orthotopic skull-base meningioma model in athymic mice using the IOMM-Lee cell line. Localized tumor growth was obtained by using optimal cell densities and matrigel as the implantation medium. Survival times were within a narrow range of 17-21 days. The xenografts grew locally compressing surrounding brain tissue. These tumors had histopathologic characteristics of anaplastic meningiomas including high cellularity, nuclear pleomorphism, cellular pattern loss, necrosis and conspicuous mitosis. Similar to human meningiomas, considerable invasion of the dura and skull and some invasion of adjacent brain along perivascular tracts were observed. The pattern of hypoxia was also similar to human malignant meningiomas. We use bioluminescent imaging to non-invasively monitor the growth of the xenografts and determine the survival benefit from temozolomide treatment. Thus, we describe a malignant meningioma model system that will be useful for investigating the biology of meningiomas and for preclinical assessment of therapeutic agents.

Robust tori in a double-waved Hamiltonian model

A Hamiltonian system perturbed by two waves with particular wave numbers can present robust tori, which are barriers created by the vanishing of the perturbed Hamiltonian at some defined positions. When robust tori exist, any trajectory in phase space passing close to them is blocked by emergent invariant curves that prevent the chaotic transport. Our results indicate that the considered particular solution for the two waves Hamiltonian model shows plenty of robust tori blocking radial transport. (C) 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Pion: space-like structure

The scalar form factor describes modifications induced by the pion over the quark condensate. Assuming that representations produced by chiral perturbation theory can be pushed to high values of negative-t, a region in configuration space is reached (r < R similar to 0.5 fm) where the form factor changes sign, indicating that the condensate has turned into empty space. A simple model for the pion incorporates this feature into density functions. When supplemented by scalar-meson excitations, it yields predictions close to empirical values for the mean square radius (< r(2)>(pi)(S) = 0.59 fm(2)) and for one of the low energy constants ((l) over bar (4) = 4.3), with no adjusted parameters.