Systems modelling of the socio-technical aspects of residential electricity use and network peak demand

Provision of network infrastructure to meet rising network peak demand is increasing the cost of electricity. Addressing this demand is a major imperative for Australian electricity agencies. The network peak demand model reported in this paper provides a quantified decision support tool and a means of understanding the key influences and impacts on network peak demand. An investigation of the system factors impacting residential consumers’ peak demand for electricity was undertaken in Queensland, Australia. Technical factors, such as the customers’ location, housing construction and appliances, were combined with social factors, such as household demographics, culture, trust and knowledge, and Change Management Options (CMOs) such as tariffs, price,managed supply, etc., in a conceptual ‘map’ of the system. A Bayesian network was used to quantify the model and provide insights into the major influential factors and their interactions. The model was also used to examine the reduction in network peak demand with different market-based and government interventions in various customer locations of interest and investigate the relative importance of instituting programs that build trust and knowledge through well designed customer-industry engagement activities. The Bayesian network was implemented via a spreadsheet with a tick box interface. The model combined available data from industry-specific and public sources with relevant expert opinion. The results revealed that the most effective intervention strategies involve combining particular CMOs with associated education and engagement activities. The model demonstrated the importance of designing interventions that take into account the interactions of the various elements of the socio-technical system. The options that provided the greatest impact on peak demand were Off-Peak Tariffs and Managed Supply and increases in the price of electricity. The impact in peak demand reduction differed for each of the locations and highlighted that household numbers, demographics as well as the different climates were significant factors. It presented possible network peak demand reductions which would delay any upgrade of networks, resulting in savings for Queensland utilities and ultimately for households. The use of this systems approach using Bayesian networks to assist the management of peak demand in different modelled locations in Queensland provided insights about the most important elements in the system and the intervention strategies that could be tailored to the targeted customer segments.

On the mathematical modeling of wound healing angiogenesis in skin as a reaction-transport process

Over the last 30 years, numerous research groups have attempted to provide mathematical descriptions of the skin wound healing process. The development of theoretical models of the interlinked processes that underlie the healing mechanism has yielded considerable insight into aspects of this critical phenomenon that remain difficult to investigate empirically. In particular, the mathematical modeling of angiogenesis, i.e., capillary sprout growth, has offered new paradigms for the understanding of this highly complex and crucial step in the healing pathway. With the recent advances in imaging and cell tracking, the time is now ripe for an appraisal of the utility and importance of mathematical modeling in wound healing angiogenesis research. The purpose of this review is to pedagogically elucidate the conceptual principles that have underpinned the development of mathematical descriptions of wound healing angiogenesis, specifically those that have utilized a continuum reaction-transport framework, and highlight the contribution that such models have made toward the advancement of research in this field. We aim to draw attention to the common assumptions made when developing models of this nature, thereby bringing into focus the advantages and limitations of this approach. A deeper integration of mathematical modeling techniques into the practice of wound healing angiogenesis research promises new perspectives for advancing our knowledge in this area. To this end we detail several open problems related to the understanding of wound healing angiogenesis, and outline how these issues could be addressed through closer cross-disciplinary collaboration.

Performance of soft-hard-soft (SHS) cement based composite subjected to blast loading with consideration of interface properties

This paper presents a combined experimental and numerical study on the damage and performance of a soft-hard-soft (SHS) multi-layer cement based composite subjected to blast loading which can be used for protective structures and infrastructures to resist extreme loadings, and the composite consists of three layers of construction materials including asphalt concrete (AC) on the top, high strength concrete (HSC) in the middle, and engineered cementitious composites (ECC) at the bottom. To better characterize the material properties under dynamic loading, interface properties of the composite were investigated through direct shear test and also used to validate the interface model. Strain rate effects of the asphalt concrete were also studied and both compressive and tensile dynamic increase factor (DIF) curves were improved based on split Hopkinson pressure bar (SHPB) test. A full-scale field blast test investigated the blast behavior of the composite materials. The numerical model was established by taking into account the strain rate effect of all concrete materials. Furthermore, the interface properties were also considered into the model. The numerical simulation using nonlinear finite element software LS-DYNA agrees closely with the experimental data. Both the numerical and field blast test indicated that the SHS composite exhibited high resistance against blast loading.

Permissions in Deontic Event-Calculus

Permissions are special case of deontic effects and play important role compliance. Essentially they are used to determine the obligations or prohibitions to contrary. A formal language e.g., temporal logic, event-calculus et., not able to represent permissions is doomed to be unable to represent most of the real-life legal norms. In this paper we address this issue and extend deontic-event-calculus (DEC) with new predicates for modelling permissions enabling it to elegantly capture the intuition of real-life cases of permissions.

William James, Sciences of Mind, and Anti-imperial Discourse

In the past few decades, the humanities and social sciences have developed new methods of reorienting their conceptual frameworks in a “world without frontiers.” In this book, Bernadette M. Baker offers an innovative approach to rethinking sciences of mind as they formed at the turn of the twentieth century, via the concerns that have emerged at the turn of the twenty-first. The less-visited texts of Harvard philosopher and psychologist William James provide a window into contemporary debates over principles of toleration, anti-imperial discourse, and the nature of ethics. Baker revisits Jamesian approaches to the formation of scientific objects including the child mind, exceptional mental states, and the ghost to explore the possibilities and limits of social scientific thought dedicated to mind development and discipline formation around the construct of the West.

Unprecedented transformation of tetrathienoanthracene into pentacene on Ni(111)

The imaging and characterization of single-molecule reaction events is essential to both extending our basic understanding of chemistry and applying this understanding to challenges at the frontiers of technology, for example, in nanoelectronics. Specifically, understanding the behavior of individual molecules can elucidate processes critical to the controlled synthesis of materials for applications in multiple nanoscale technologies. Here, we report the synthesis of an important semiconducting organic molecule through an unprecedented reaction observed with submolecular resolution by scanning tunneling microscopy (STM) under ultrahigh vacuum (UHV) conditions. Our images reveal a sulfur abstraction and cyclization reaction that converts tetrathienoanthracene precursors into pentacene on the Ni(111) surface. The identity of the final reaction product was confirmed by time-of-flight secondary ion mass spectrometry (TOF-SIMS). This reaction has no known literature analogue, and highlights the power of local-probe techniques for exploring new chemical pathways.

Crop Classification using Biologically-inspired Techniques with High Resolution Satellite Image

Remote sensing provides a lucid and effective means for crop coverage identification. Crop coverage identification is a very important technique, as it provides vital information on the type and extent of crop cultivated in a particular area. This information has immense potential in the planning for further cultivation activities and for optimal usage of the available fertile land. As the frontiers of space technology advance, the knowledge derived from the satellite data has also grown in sophistication. Further, image classification forms the core of the solution to the crop coverage identification problem. No single classifier can prove to satisfactorily classify all the basic crop cover mapping problems of a cultivated region. We present in this paper the experimental results of multiple classification techniques for the problem of crop cover mapping of a cultivated region. A detailed comparison of the algorithms inspired by social behaviour of insects and conventional statistical method for crop classification is presented in this paper. These include the Maximum Likelihood Classifier (MLC), Particle Swarm Optimisation (PSO) and Ant Colony Optimisation (ACO) techniques. The high resolution satellite image has been used for the experiments.

Mitigating undesirable impacts in the marine environment: A review of market-based management measures

Internationally, marine biodiversity conservation objectives are having an increasing influence on the management of commercial fisheries. While this is largely being implemented through Marine Protected Areas (MPAs) other management measures, such as market based instruments (MBIs), have proved to be effective at managing target species catch in fisheries and reducing environmental impacts in industries such as mining and tourism. Market-based management measures aim to mitigate the impacts of activities by better aligning the incentives their participants face with the objectives of management, changing their behavior as a consequence. In this paper, we review the potential of MBIs as management tools to mitigate undesirable environmental impacts associated with commercial fishing. Where they exist, examples of previous applications are described and the factors that influence their applicability and effectiveness are discussed. Several fishing methods and impacts are considered and suggest that whilst no single approach is most appropriate in all circumstances either replacing or complementing existing management arrangements with MBIs has the potential to improve environmental performance. This has a number of implications. From the environmental perspective they should enable levels of undesirable impacts such as damage to sensitive habitat or the bycatch of protected species of turtles, marine mammals, and seabirds to be reduced. The increased flexibility MBIs allow industry when developing solutions also has the potential to reduce costs to both the industry and managers, improving the cost-effectiveness of regulation as a result. Further, in the increasingly relevant case of MPAs the need for publicly funded compensation, often paid to industry when vessels are excluded from grounds, may also be significantly reduced if improved environmental performance makes it possible for some industry members to continue operating.

Predicting health programme participation: A gravity‐based, hierarchical modelling approach

Statistical analyses of health program participation seek to address a number of objectives compatible with the evaluation of demand for current resources. In this spirit, a spatial hierarchical model is developed for disentangling patterns in participation at the small area level, as a function of population-based demand and additional variation. For the former, a constrained gravity model is proposed to quantify factors associated with spatial choice and account for competition effects, for programs delivered by multiple clinics. The implications of gravity model misspecification within a mixed effects framework are also explored. The proposed model is applied to participation data from a no-fee mammography program in Brisbane, Australia. Attention is paid to the interpretation of various model outputs and their relevance for public health policy.

Overfitting Bayesian mixture models with an unknown number of components

This paper proposes solutions to three issues pertaining to the estimation of finite mixture models with an unknown number of components: the non-identifiability induced by overfitting the number of components, the mixing limitations of standard Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) sampling techniques, and the related label switching problem. An overfitting approach is used to estimate the number of components in a finite mixture model via a Zmix algorithm. Zmix provides a bridge between multidimensional samplers and test based estimation methods, whereby priors are chosen to encourage extra groups to have weights approaching zero. MCMC sampling is made possible by the implementation of prior parallel tempering, an extension of parallel tempering. Zmix can accurately estimate the number of components, posterior parameter estimates and allocation probabilities given a sufficiently large sample size. The results will reflect uncertainty in the final model and will report the range of possible candidate models and their respective estimated probabilities from a single run. Label switching is resolved with a computationally light-weight method, Zswitch, developed for overfitted mixtures by exploiting the intuitiveness of allocation-based relabelling algorithms and the precision of label-invariant loss functions. Four simulation studies are included to illustrate Zmix and Zswitch, as well as three case studies from the literature. All methods are available as part of the R package Zmix, which can currently be applied to univariate Gaussian mixture models.

Bysanttilaisten ja Akhaian ruhtinaskunnan väliset sotatoimet vuosina 1259-83 : Tapaustutkimus myöhäis-bysanttilaisesta sodankäynnistä

In my master thesis I analyse Byzantine warfare in the late period of the empire. I use military operations between Byzantines and crusader Principality of Achaia (1259–83) as a case study. Byzantine strategy was based (in “oriental manner”) on using ambushes, diplomacy, surprise attacks, deception etc. Open field battles that were risky in comparison with their benefits were usually avoided, but the Byzantines were sometimes forced to seek open encounter because their limited ability to keep strong armies in field for long periods of time. Foreign mercenaries had important place in Byzantine armies and they could simply change sides if their paymasters ran out of resources. The use of mercenaries with short contracts made it possible that the composition of an army was flexible but on the other hand heterogeneous – in result Byzantine armies were sometimes ineffective and prone to confusion. In open field battles Byzantines used formation that was made out from several lines placed one after another. This formation was especially suitable for cavalry battles. Byzantines might have also used other kinds of formations. The Byzantines were not considered equal to Latins in close combat. West-Europeans saw mainly horse archers and Latin mercenaries on Byzantine service as threats to themselves in battle. The legitimacy of rulers surrounding the Aegean sea was weak and in many cases political intrigues and personal relationships can have resolved the battles. Especially in sieges the loyalty of population was decisive. In sieges the Byzantines used plenty of siege machines and archers. This made fast conquests possible, but it was expensive. The Byzantines protected their frontiers by building castles. Military operations against the Principality of Achaia were mostly small scale raids following an intensive beginning. Byzantine raids were mostly made by privateers and mountaineers. This does not fit to the traditional picture that warfare belonged to the imperial professional army. It’s unlikely that military operations in war against the Principality of Achaia caused great demographic or economic catastrophe and some regions in the warzone might even have flourished. On the other hand people started to concentrate into villages which (with growing risks for trade) probably caused disturbance in economic development and in result birth rates might have decreased. Both sides of war sought to exchange their prisoners of war. These were treated according to conventional manners that were accepted by both sides. It was possible to sell prisoners, especially women and children, to slavery, but the scale of this trade does not seem to be great in military operations treated in this theses.

On the order of the fractional Laplacian in determining the spatio-temporal evolution of a space-fractional model of cardiac electrophysiology

Space-fractional operators have been used with success in a variety of practical applications to describe transport processes in media characterised by spatial connectivity properties and high structural heterogeneity altering the classical laws of diffusion. This study provides a systematic investigation of the spatio-temporal effects of a space-fractional model in cardiac electrophysiology. We consider a simplified model of electrical pulse propagation through cardiac tissue, namely the monodomain formulation of the Beeler-Reuter cell model on insulated tissue fibres, and obtain a space-fractional modification of the model by using the spectral definition of the one-dimensional continuous fractional Laplacian. The spectral decomposition of the fractional operator allows us to develop an efficient numerical method for the space-fractional problem. Particular attention is paid to the role played by the fractional operator in determining the solution behaviour and to the identification of crucial differences between the non-fractional and the fractional cases. We find a positive linear dependence of the depolarization peak height and a power law decay of notch and dome peak amplitudes for decreasing orders of the fractional operator. Furthermore, we establish a quadratic relationship in conduction velocity, and quantify the increasingly wider action potential foot and more pronounced dispersion of action potential duration, as the fractional order is decreased. A discussion of the physiological interpretation of the presented findings is made.

Introducing a new limit states design concept to railway concrete sleepers: An Australian experience

Over 50 years, a large number of research and development projects with respect to the use of cementitious and concrete materials for manufacturing railway sleepers have been significantly progressed in Australia, Europe, and Japan (Wang, 1996; Murray and Cai, 1998; Wakui and Okuda, 1999; Esveld, 2001; Freudenstein and Haban, 2006; Remennikov and Kaewunruen, 2008). Traditional sleeper materials are timber, steel, and concrete. Cost-efficiency, superior durability, and improved track stability are the main factors toward significant adoption of concrete materials for railway sleepers. The sleepers in a track system, as shown in Figure 1, are subjected to harsh and aggressive external forces and natural environments across a distance. Many systemic problems and technical issues associated with concrete sleepers have been tackled over decades. These include pre-mature failures of sleepers, concrete cancer or ettringite, abrasion of railseats and soffits, impact damages by rail machinery, bond-slip damage, longitudinal and lateral instability of track system, dimensional instability of sleepers, nuisance noise and vibration, and so on (Pfeil, 1997; Gustavson, 2002; Kaewunruen and Remennikov, 2008a,b, 2013). These issues are, however, becoming an emerging risk for many countries (in North and South Americas, Asia, and the Middle East) that have recently installed large volumes of concrete sleepers in their railway networks (Federal Railroad Administration, 2013). As a result, it is vital to researchers and practitioners to critically review and learn from previous experience and lessons around the world.

An imagery-based road map to tackle maladaptive motivation in clinical disorders

There is now a widespread recognition of the importance of mental imagery in a range of clinical disorders (1). This provides the potential for a transdiagnostic route to integrate some aspects of these disorders and their treatment within a common framework. This opinion piece argues that we need to understand why imagery is such a central and recurring feature, if we are to progress theories of the origin and maintenance of disorders. This will aid us in identifying therapeutic techniques that are not simply targeting imagery as a symptom, but as a manifestation of an underlying problem. As papers in this issue highlight, imagery is a central feature across many clinical disorders, but has been ascribed varying roles. For example, the involuntary occurrence of traumatic memories is a diagnostic criterion for PTSD (2), and it has been suggested that multisensory imagery of traumatic events normally serves a functional role in allowing the individual to reappraise the situation (3), but that this re-appraisal is disabled by extreme affective responses. In contrast to the disabling flashbacks associated with PTSD, depressed adults who experience suicidal ideation often report “flash forward” imagery related to suicidal acts (4), motivating them to self-harm. Socially anxious individuals who engage in visual imagery about giving a talk in public become more anxious and make more negative predictions about future performance than others who engage in more abstract, semantic processing of the past event (5). People with Obsessive Compulsive Disorder (OCD) frequently report imagery of past adverse events, and imagery seems to be associated with severity (6). The content of intrusive imagery has been related to psychotic symptoms (7), including visual images of the catastrophic fears associated with paranoia and persecution. Imagery has been argued (8) to play a role in the maintenance of psychosis through negative appraisals of imagined voices, misattribution of sensations to external sources, by the induction of negative mood states that trigger voices, and through maintenance of negative schemas. In addiction and substance dependence, Elaborated Intrusion (EI) Theory (9, 10) emphasizes the causal role that imagery plays in substance use, through its role in motivating an individual to pursue goals directed toward achieving the pleasurable outcomes associated with substance use...

Learning with symmetric label noise: The importance of being unhinged

Convex potential minimisation is the de facto approach to binary classification. However, Long and Servedio [2008] proved that under symmetric label noise (SLN), minimisation of any convex potential over a linear function class can result in classification performance equivalent to random guessing. This ostensibly shows that convex losses are not SLN-robust. In this paper, we propose a convex, classification-calibrated loss and prove that it is SLN-robust. The loss avoids the Long and Servedio [2008] result by virtue of being negatively unbounded. The loss is a modification of the hinge loss, where one does not clamp at zero; hence, we call it the unhinged loss. We show that the optimal unhinged solution is equivalent to that of a strongly regularised SVM, and is the limiting solution for any convex potential; this implies that strong l2 regularisation makes most standard learners SLN-robust. Experiments confirm the unhinged loss’ SLN-robustness.