995 resultados para Estatística dos tempos de recorrência


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Dans ce texte, nous prenons avec probleme le départment bresilien de Piauí comme espacialité de la Région « Nordeste », suivant les instants de son insertion politique et discursif dans l'identité régionale, qui s'est donnée entre la fin des années 1950 et débuts des années 1970. Pour ceci, nous proposons une analyse de discours identitaires de Piauí comme la littérature et le folklore produits alors, cherchant à rapporter telles discours avec les pratiques et intérêts politiques qui ont concouru pour la « nordestinization » de Piauí. Parmi ces discours et dans dialogue avec eux, nous prenons centralement l'oeuvre du juge et ecrivain João Nonon de Moura Fontes Ibiapina, emisseur de signes qui apparaît en ce moment. Notre objectif est discuter les images élaborées sur Piauí et son inclusion dans les stéréotypes cristallisés de Nordeste, comme la pauvreté et la nécessité, la vie dans le champs et la prédominance d'une « culture populaire » régionale. Dans une période d'importantes mutations dans la société brésilienne, dans la production culturelle, dans heurtes régionalistes Nordeste et dans les formes de penser et pratiquer les espaces, les intellectuels de Piauí que nous étudions ont essayé de recouvrir de mots et de sens la noirceur et l'incommode silence concernant le Piauí dans la Nation bresilienne, quand le déparment s'intégrait, au moyen de la Région, au Brésil urbain et industrialisé

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This study aims to analyze the process of resignification of Chile Street, in Natal, from the development of a music scene in the late 1990s. Chile Street, as part of the Historic Centre of Natal, had its images constructed from the discursive practices and everyday life of its regular visitors, leading to a series of symbolic and imaging transformations throughout the twentieth century. Initially transformed into glamorous space as a result of urban actions of the new republic of Albuquerque Maranhão, in the early twentieth century, Ribeira and Chile Street, specifically, came to be seen as bohemian area, during the war time"; followed by a marginal phase, it was eventually transformed into the main rocker area of Natal, with the development of a musical scene in the second half of the 1990s. This music scene, its practices, economic interests, cultural events and identity ties created among their practitioners made Chile Street, "in the time of Blackout night club", an "alternative" space. As the historic centers, inserted in the logic of postmodern city marketing, both spaces are dynamic in their practices, as in their images, Chile Street also suffered changes in its meanings and symbols, around the year 2000 when the alternative-underground space became a pop space, where people from various parts of the city began attending its events and places, transforming it into a point of very heterogeneous sociability

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In this work, we study and compare two percolation algorithms, one of then elaborated by Elias, and the other one by Newman and Ziff, using theorical tools of algorithms complexity and another algorithm that makes an experimental comparation. This work is divided in three chapters. The first one approaches some necessary definitions and theorems to a more formal mathematical study of percolation. The second presents technics that were used for the estimative calculation of the algorithms complexity, are they: worse case, better case e average case. We use the technique of the worse case to estimate the complexity of both algorithms and thus we can compare them. The last chapter shows several characteristics of each one of the algorithms and through the theoretical estimate of the complexity and the comparison between the execution time of the most important part of each one, we can compare these important algorithms that simulate the percolation.

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The work is to make a brief discussion of methods to estimate the parameters of the Generalized Pareto distribution (GPD). Being addressed the following techniques: Moments (moments), Maximum Likelihood (MLE), Biased Probability Weighted Moments (PWMB), Unbiased Probability Weighted Moments (PWMU), Mean Power Density Divergence (MDPD), Median (MED), Pickands (PICKANDS), Maximum Penalized Likelihood (MPLE), Maximum Goodness-of-fit (MGF) and the Maximum Entropy (POME) technique, the focus of this manuscript. By way of illustration adjustments were made for the Generalized Pareto distribution, for a sequence of earthquakes intraplacas which occurred in the city of João Câmara in the northeastern region of Brazil, which was monitored continuously for two years (1987 and 1988). It was found that the MLE and POME were the most efficient methods, giving them basically mean squared errors. Based on the threshold of 1.5 degrees was estimated the seismic risk for the city, and estimated the level of return to earthquakes of intensity 1.5°, 2.0°, 2.5°, 3.0° and the most intense earthquake never registered in the city, which occurred in November 1986 with magnitude of about 5.2º

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In Survival Analysis, long duration models allow for the estimation of the healing fraction, which represents a portion of the population immune to the event of interest. Here we address classical and Bayesian estimation based on mixture models and promotion time models, using different distributions (exponential, Weibull and Pareto) to model failure time. The database used to illustrate the implementations is described in Kersey et al. (1987) and it consists of a group of leukemia patients who underwent a certain type of transplant. The specific implementations used were numeric optimization by BFGS as implemented in R (base::optim), Laplace approximation (own implementation) and Gibbs sampling as implemented in Winbugs. We describe the main features of the models used, the estimation methods and the computational aspects. We also discuss how different prior information can affect the Bayesian estimates

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We present residual analysis techniques to assess the fit of correlated survival data by Accelerated Failure Time Models (AFTM) with random effects. We propose an imputation procedure for censored observations and consider three types of residuals to evaluate different model characteristics. We illustrate the proposal with the analysis of AFTM with random effects to a real data set involving times between failures of oil well equipment

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Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

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O método para rápido aumento da produtividade fabril, aplicável principalmente à indústria brasileira de manufatura (17% do PIB), fundamenta-se exclusivamente na redução ou eliminação do tempo inativo do homem, da máquina e do material, que é a grande causa da ineficiência. O método exige a utilização de apenas cinco das mais simples, elementares e conhecidas técnicas e é aplicável às vinte situações mais freqüentes (objetos de estudo) na indústria de manufatura. Nossa experiência atesta que o método pode proporcionar à produtividade fabril um aumento superior a 30%, em poucos meses e de forma perene. Sua aplicação e a implantação das medidas dele decorrentes são feitas com extrema facilidade e, por isto, os resultados surgem muito rapidamente. Atinge portanto seu objetivo: proporcionar aumento da produtividade fabril em curto espaço de tempo. Este artigo (terceiro e último da série) detalhará doze objetos de estudo (situações): 1. redução dos tempos inativos causados por troca de turno, por refeição e por troca de produtos; 2. redução dos tempos improdutivos acarretados por causas mais importantes, por espera pelo serviço de manutenção, por espera pelo serviço de preparação, por espera pelo operador e por causas não apontáveis pelos procedimentos usuais; 3. redução das atividades improdutivas e das produtivas executadas num ritmo improdutivo; e 4. redução do tempo de espera do material em processamento pela redução do tamanho do lote de fabricação e pelo aumento da velocidade de manufatura.

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The pro-ecological commitment (CPE) constitutes an important topic within Person- Environment Studies, here seen as a predisposition to practices that result in environmental protection. Under the framework of sustainability, the concept of sustainable behavior emerges, covering, in addition to CPE, new psychological dimensions such as: the future time perspective (PTF) and the ecological worldviews (VEM). The current study intended to explore the concept of sustainable behavior of university students, by means of the association among some of its dimensions: CPE, PTF and VEM. For this purpose, 380 undergraduate students of biology, ecology, nursing, geography, and social service answered a form containing: socio-demographic questionnaire, a question on self-assessment of environmental care, the Scale of Ecocentric and Anthropocentric Environmentalisms, the Scale Consideration of Future Consequences, and the Scale Ecological Worldviews. Based on descriptive and correlational procedures, it was found that 78% of the participants practice or have practiced environmental care (caregivers) and the spread of information has been the practice more frequently reported, and the source of influence for such practices were the school, social networks, and the contact with nature It was also observed the association between practice of environmental care and ecocentric environmentalism, consideration of future consequences and egalitarian worldview (worldview of fragile nature). The lack of environmental care was associated with anthropocentric environmentalism, apathy, and individualistic worldview (worldview of passivity). As expected, and suggested by the literature, positive association were found between the sustainable behavior dimensions investigated in this study and the practice of environmental care

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Over exploitation of oil deposits on land onshore or offshore, there is simultaneous generation of waste water, known as produced water, which represents the largest waste stream in the production of crude oil. The relationship between the chemical composition of oil and water production and the conditions in which this process occurs or is favored are still poorly studied. The area chosen for the study has an important oil reserve and an important aquifer saturated with freshwater meteoric. The aim of this work is to study some chemical parameters in water produced for each reservoir zone of production in mature oil fields of Açu Formation, using the hydrochemical and statistical analysis to serve as a reference and be used as tools against the indicator ranges water producers in oil producing wells. Samples were collected from different wells in 6 different areas of production and were measured 50 parameters, which can be classified into three groups: anions, cations and physicochemical properties (considering only the parameters that generated values above detection limits in all samples). Through the characterization hydrochemistry observed an area of water and chlorinated sodium, chlorinated calcium or magnesium (mixed) in well water in different areas of Açu, by applying a statistical treatment, we obtained a discriminant function that distinguishes chemically production areas. Thus, it was possible to calculate the rate of correct classification of the function was 76.3%. To validate this model the accuracy rate was 86%

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The thesis presented here is of interest management to analyze the performance of the State, through the materialization of the professional courses, the process of integration of users CRAS-Pajuçara informal. Therefore, we assume that poverty and inequality reach a significant portion of the world population, in a context where the working class family is seen as an alternative to face the multiple expressions of social issues. Thus, before the changes of Productive Restructuring, marked by flexibility, outsourcing and casualization of labor relations in the world, the working class family must find ways to ensure their survival. In this direction, we discuss the advances, limitations and challenges posed to the Social Assistance Policy in contemporary, situating this context, the role of the state. Furthermore, we discussed the functionality of informality to the capitalist system, showing how capital appropriates of informal work, placing it in its logic, and thus makes the capital-labor ratio increasingly predatory, inhuman and unequal. The methodological procedures for the preparation of this study constitute a literature and documentary, beyond 10 semi-structured interviews directed to users of CRAS-Pajuçara, participants of training courses for the period 2010-2011. In light of the critical-dialectical rationality, and in a context where informal work has increasingly been co-opted as an alternative to huge unemployment in the same direction in which the welfare rises in tackling social inequality, the scope of this study, discusses and reveals the truths and misconceptions that surround this bourgeois discourse, in times of crisis of capital, the city of Natal, Brazil

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Este artigo indica que o Ensaio de ontologia fenomenológica de Sartre, O ser e o nada, poderia ser lido como uma recriação filosófica de uma experiência histórica crucial.

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Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

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A anastomose arterial término-terminal é demorada, requer tempo prolongado de oclusão vascular e esta associada a necrose focal, infiltração leucocitária e, conseqüentemente, à fibrose e calcificação da parede arterial. A cola de fibrina é uma alternativa para a anastomose microvascular e pode evitar estas alterações com menor aderência aos tecidos vizinhos e melhor coaptação das bordas arteriais. OBJETIVO: Comparar o processo cicatricial de anastomoses convencionais com anastomoses feitas com cola de fibrina em artérias maiores. MÉTODOS: em 22 coelhos, ambas carótidas foram seccionadas transversalmente e reconstruídas por meio de anastomose término-terminal com 4 pontos simples de reparo e cola de fibrina de um lado (G1), e com 8 pontos separados do outro lado (G2). Após 3 e 15 dias, os animais foram destinados aleatoriamente para estudo de força tênsil concentração de hidroxiprolina (8 animais) e avaliação histológica das anastomoses (3 animais). As lâminas histológicas foram coradas pelo HE Masson e Picrossirius polarização (PSP). RESULTADOS: Após 3 e 15 dias a força tênsil aumenta em ambos os grupos, de 280,0± 32,6g para 432,2± 131,2g no Grupo 1 e de 221,4± 72,4g para 452,2± 132,0g no Grupo 2; sem diferença estatística entre os grupos em cada período. A concentração de hidroxiprolina expressa como razão hidroxiprolina/proteína, variou de 0,0816± 0,0651 para 0,0622± 0,0184 no Grupo 1 e de 0,0734± 0,0577 para 0,0460± 0,0271 no Grupo 2; sem diferença estatística entre os períodos e grupos. Os estudos histológicos mostraram discreto aumento das reações de inflamação e reparação no Grupo 2. A técnica PSP mostrou predomínio do colágeno tipo I em relação do colágeno tipo II nas anastomoses de ambos os grupos, sem diferença expressiva entre esses grupos. CONCLUSÃO: A anastomose com a cola de fibrina foi menos lesiva para a parede arterial do que a anastomose convencional. Mesmo usando menos pontos, as características de força tênsil e de cicatrização da anastomose com cola de fibrina foram similares em ambos os grupos. Os tempos de realização das anastomoses foram significativamente maiores do que na anastomose convencional.

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Este trabalho tem por objetivo discutir os nexos entre crise do capital, questão urbana e ambiental, problematizando a inserção subordinada do Brasil no processo de mundialização com predomínio das finanças, as contradições que marcam estes processos e, em particular, suas repercussões nas cidades na contemporaneidade. Acirra-se a luta de classes, expressa nas diversas formas formas de apropriação e uso do solo urbano. Neste cenário de disputas, as formas de luta e oposição à acumulação desenfreada do capital podem ser consideradas ainda pontuais e de pequena escala, mas revelam formas de resistências que podem vir a gerar movimentos emancipatórios