Mathematical Modeling to Assess the Drivers of the Recent Emergence of Typhoid Fever in Blantyre, Malawi

BACKGROUND: Multiyear epidemics of Salmonella enterica serovar Typhi have been reported from countries across eastern and southern Africa in recent years. In Blantyre, Malawi, a dramatic increase in typhoid fever cases has recently occurred, and may be linked to the emergence of the H58 haplotype. Strains belonging to the H58 haplotype often exhibit multidrug resistance and may have a fitness advantage relative to other Salmonella Typhi strains.

METHODS: To explore hypotheses for the increased number of typhoid fever cases in Blantyre, we fit a mathematical model to culture-confirmed cases of Salmonella enterica infections at Queen Elizabeth Central Hospital, Blantyre. We explored 4 hypotheses: (1) an increase in the basic reproductive number (R0) in response to increasing population density; (2) a decrease in the incidence of cross-immunizing infection with Salmonella Enteritidis; (3) an increase in the duration of infectiousness due to failure to respond to first-line antibiotics; and (4) an increase in the transmission rate following the emergence of the H58 haplotype.

RESULTS: Increasing population density or decreasing cross-immunity could not fully explain the observed pattern of typhoid emergence in Blantyre, whereas models allowing for an increase in the duration of infectiousness and/or the transmission rate of typhoid following the emergence of the H58 haplotype provided a good fit to the data.

CONCLUSIONS: Our results suggest that an increase in the transmissibility of typhoid due to the emergence of drug resistance associated with the H58 haplotype may help to explain recent outbreaks of typhoid in Malawi and similar settings in Africa.

D4.3 Prototype Software (Documentation)

The agent-based social simulation component of the TELL ME project (WP4) developed prototype software to assist communications planners to understand the complex relationships between communication, personal protective behaviour and epidemic spread. Using the simulation, planners can enter different potential communications plans, and see their simulated effect on attitudes, behaviour and the consequent effect on an influenza epidemic.

The model and the software to run the model are both freely available (see section 2.2.1 for instructions on how to obtain the relevant files). This report provides the documentation for the prototype software. The major component is the user guide (Section 2). This provides instructions on how to set up the software, some training scenarios to become familiar with the model operation and use, and details about the model controls and output.

The model contains many parameters. Default values and their source are described at Section 3. These are unlikely to be suitable for all countries, and may also need to be changed as new research is conducted. Instructions for how to customise these values are also included (see section 3.5).

The final technical reference contains two parts. The first is a guide for advanced users who wish to run multiple simulations and analyse the results (section 4.1). The second is to orient programmers who wish to adapt or extend the simulation model (section 4.2). This material is not suitable for general users.

Uses of Agent-Based Modeling for Health Communication: the TELL ME Case Study

Government communication is an important management tool during a public health crisis, but understanding its impact is difficult. Strategies may be adjusted in reaction to developments on the ground and it is challenging to evaluate the impact of communication separately from other crisis management activities. Agent-based modeling is a well-established research tool in social science to respond to similar challenges. However, there have been few such models in public health. We use the example of the TELL ME agent-based model to consider ways in which a non-predictive policy model can assist policy makers. This model concerns individuals' protective behaviors in response to an epidemic, and the communication that influences such behavior. Drawing on findings from stakeholder workshops and the results of the model itself, we suggest such a model can be useful: (i) as a teaching tool, (ii) to test theory, and (iii) to inform data collection. We also plot a path for development of similar models that could assist with communication planning for epidemics.

Diagnostic Tests and their Application in the Management of Soil- and Water-borne Oomycete Pathogen Species

Oomycete diseases cause significant losses across a broad range of crop and aquaculture commodities worldwide. These losses can be greatly reduced by disease management practices steered by accurate and early diagnoses of pathogen presence. Determinations of disease potential can help guide optimal crop rotation regimes, varietal selections, targeted control measures, harvest timings and crop post-harvest handling. Pathogen detection prior to infection can also reduce the incidence of disease epidemics. Classical methods for the isolation of oomycete pathogens are normally deployed only after disease symptom appearance. These processes are often-time consuming, relying on culturing the putative pathogen(s) and the availability of expert taxonomic skills for accurate identification; a situation that frequently results in either delayed application, or routine ‘blanket’ over-application of control measures. Increasing concerns about pesticides in the environment and the food chain, removal or restriction of their usage combined with rising costs have focussed interest in the development and improvement of disease management systems. To be effective, these require timely, accurate and preferably quantitatve diagnoses. A wide range of rapid diagnostic tools, from point of care immunodiagnostic kits to next generation nucleotide sequencing have potential application in oomycete disease management. Here we review currently-available as well as promising new technologies in the context of commercial agricultural production systems, considering the impacts of specific biotic and abiotic and other important factors such as speed and ease of access to information and cost effectiveness

Epidemias bacterianas emergentes do século XXI

As doenças infeciosas distantes de serem um problema do passado têm aumentado drasticamente nestes últimos anos, causando epidemias emergentes, quer de origem bacteriana ou vírica ou de outros tipos de microrganismos. Esta dissertação tem como objetivo uma pesquisa atual bibliográfica sobre o estudo de algumas epidemias bacterianas emergentes do século XXI, como a Tuberculose, Cólera, Staphylococcus aureus resistente à meticilina (MRSA) e Meningite Meningocócica, bem como os seus dados epidemiológicos. A Tuberculose é uma das doenças mais antigas, que apresenta uma elevada taxa de mortalidade e com o passar do tempo tem vindo a aumentar a nível mundial. A TB é causada por uma bactéria denominada Mycobacterium tuberculosis que normalmente afeta os pulmões e outros órgãos. O tratamento, a prevenção e o diagnóstico precoce são pontos essenciais, para ter um bom desfecho para o doente. A Cólera tem-se propagado pelo mundo desde o século XX. Esta doença caracteriza-se por uma diarreia aguda grave que é causada pela bactéria Vibrio cholerae. O seu tratamento se for realizado precocemente é tratado facilmente, com apenas hidratação com sais orais. A prevenção é uma medida essencial para ter um bom prognóstico, e evitar surtos emergentes desta infeção. Devido à sua virulência, Staphylococcus aureus é responsável por infeções graves adquiridas em hospital e na comunidade. Na maioria das vezes esta infeção é assintomática, mas pode causar infeções graves até mesmo fatais. Devido às resistências aos antibióticos β-lactâmicos e de outros tipos de antibióticos, e também devido ao aumento do número crescente de quadros infeciosos de MRSA, houve necessidade de novos antibióticos como o linezolide, as cefasloporinas de 5ª geração no combate a estas infeções. As medidas de prevenção são essenciais, visto que se não forem realizadas pode haver progressão da doença. Além de um estudo científico constante dos mecanismos de resistências desta bactéria, ser essencial. A meningite bacteriana é um grave problema de Saúde Pública devido à alta incidência em crianças. A meningite meningocócica é causada pela bactéria Neisseria meningitidis que origina um processo inflamatório das meninges. Há algum tempo atrás a mortalidade era elevada, mas com o advento da antibioterapia reduziu significativamente. As vacinas fizeram com que ocorresse uma mudança bastante significativa na epidemiologia desta patologia, e mais uma vez a prevenção é essencial.

Développement et évaluation pré-clinique de nouveaux vaccins inactivés contre l’influenza et suivi de l’évolution des souches virales A/H3N2

Les virus influenza de type A sont des pathogènes respiratoires causant des épidémies saisonnières et des pandémies de manière plus occasionnelles. Au cours d’une saison, 10 à 20 % de la population mondiale est touchée, ce qui constitue un problème majeur de santé publique. Les virus de sous-type A/H3N2 sont associés à une plus forte morbidité et mortalité que les virus de sous-type A/H1N1. La vaccination reste le moyen le plus efficace de contrôler les infections, cependant l’efficacité de ces vaccins est de courte durée et compromise en cas de non-appariemment entre les souches circulantes et vaccinales. La première partie de cette thèse a été consacrée à l’optimisation des vaccins inactivés A/H3N2 en testant de nouveaux adjuvants et de nouvelles voies d’administration chez la souris et le furet. Nous avons démontré que l’adjuvant AS25 semble prometteur pour le développement de vaccins plus efficaces. La seconde partie de cette thèse a été consacrée à suivre l’évolution moléculaire et antigénique des souches A/H3N2 circulantes au Québec entre 2009 et 2011. Notre conclusion est qu’il n’y a pas que le nombre de mutations dans la HA qui est important, en ce sens que la nature et la localisation de ces dernières jouent un rôle clé lors d’une dérive antigénique. Après avoir suivi les souches A/H3N2 sous pression immunitaire, nous avons suivi dans la troisième partie de cette thèse une souche A/H3N2 sous pression d’un nouvel antiviral; le laninamivir. Les antiviraux sont la première ligne de défense en cas de pandémie ou lors d’une épidémie lorsqu’il y a un mésappariemment entre les souches circulante et vaccinale. Notre conclusion est que la réplication de notre mutant est conservé in vitro mais non in vivo. Les différentes expériences effectuées au cours de cette thèse ont permis de suivre l’évolution des souches A/H3N2 et de mettre en œuvre de nouveaux moyens de prévention et de traitement.

Parameter Identification in a Tuberculosis Model for Cameroon

A deterministic model of tuberculosis in Cameroon is designed and analyzed with respect to its transmission dynamics. The model includes lack of access to treatment and weak diagnosis capacity as well as both frequency-and density-dependent transmissions. It is shown that the model is mathematically well-posed and epidemiologically reasonable. Solutions are non-negative and bounded whenever the initial values are non-negative. A sensitivity analysis of model parameters is performed and the most sensitive ones are identified by means of a state-of-the-art Gauss-Newton method. In particular, parameters representing the proportion of individuals having access to medical facilities are seen to have a large impact on the dynamics of the disease. The model predicts that a gradual increase of these parameters could significantly reduce the disease burden on the population within the next 15 years.

O uso de filme como recurso pedagógico no estudo das epidemias: possibilidades na aprendizagem significativa

Acompanha: Epidemias na escola? Só em filmes: possibilidades de contaminação na aprendizagem significativa

Hepsine et matriptase activent l’hémagglutinine des virus influenza A et B et leur inhibition représente une nouvelle stratégie thérapeutique n’entraînant pas le développement de résistance

Résumé: Chaque année, les épidémies saisonnières d’influenza causent de 3 à 5 millions de cas sévères de maladie, entraînant entre 250 000 et 500 000 décès mondialement. Seulement deux classes d’antiviraux sont actuellement commercialisées pour traiter cette infection respiratoire : les inhibiteurs de la neuraminidase, tels que l’oseltamivir (Tamiflu) et les inhibiteurs du canal ionique M2 (adamantanes). Toutefois, leur utilisation est limitée par l’apparition rapide de résistance virale. Il est donc d’un grand intérêt de développer de nouvelles stratégies thérapeutiques pour le traitement de l’influenza. Le virus influenza dépend de l’activation de sa protéine de surface hémagglutinine (HA) pour être infectieux. L’activation a lieu par clivage protéolytique au sein d’une séquence d’acides aminés conservée. Ce clivage doit être effectué par une enzyme de l’hôte, étant donné que le génome du virus ne code pour aucune protéase. Pour les virus infectant l’humain, plusieurs études ont montré le potentiel de protéases à sérine transmembranaires de type II (TTSP) à promouvoir la réplication virale : TMPRSS2, TMPRSS4, HAT, MSPL, Desc1 et matriptase, identifiée récemment par notre équipe (Beaulieu, Gravel et al., 2013), activent l’HA des virus influenza A (principalement H1N1 et H3N2). Toutefois, il existe peu d’information sur le clivage de l’HA des virus influenza B, et seulement TMPRSS2 et HAT ont été identifiées comme étant capables d’activer ce type de virus. Les travaux de ce projet de maîtrise visaient à identifier d’autres TTSP pouvant activer l’HA de l’influenza B. L’efficacité de clivage par la matriptase, hepsine, HAT et Desc1 a été étudiée et comparée entre ces TTSP. Ces quatre protéases s’avèrent capables de cliver l’HA de l’influenza B in vitro. Cependant, seul le clivage par matriptase, hepsine et HAT promeut la réplication virale. De plus, ces TTSP peuvent aussi supporter la réplication de virus influenza A. Ainsi, l’utilisation d’un inhibiteur de TTSP, développé en collaboration avec notre laboratoire, permet de bloquer significativement la réplication virale dans les cellules épithéliales bronchiques humaines Calu-3. Cet inhibiteur se lie de façon covalente et lentement réversible au site actif de la TTSP par un mécanisme slow tight-binding. Puisque cet inhibiteur cible une composante de la cellule hôte, et non une protéine virale, il n’entraîne pas le développement de résistance après 15 passages des virus en présence de l’inhibiteur dans les cellules Calu-3. L’inhibition des TTSP activatrices d’HA dans le système respiratoire humain représente donc une nouvelle stratégie thérapeutique pouvant mener au développement d’antiviraux efficaces contre l’influenza.

Investigating disease persistence in host vector systems: dengue as a case study

The investigation of pathogen persistence in vector-borne diseases is important in different ecological and epidemiological contexts. In this thesis, I have developed deterministic and stochastic models to help investigating the pathogen persistence in host-vector systems by using efficient modelling paradigms. A general introduction with aims and objectives of the studies conducted in the thesis are provided in Chapter 1. The mathematical treatment of models used in the thesis is provided in Chapter 2 where the models are found locally asymptotically stable. The models used in the rest of the thesis are based on either the same or similar mathematical structure studied in this chapter. After that, there are three different experiments that are conducted in this thesis to study the pathogen persistence. In Chapter 3, I characterize pathogen persistence in terms of the Critical Community Size (CCS) and find its relationship with the model parameters. In this study, the stochastic versions of two epidemiologically different host-vector models are used for estimating CCS. I note that the model parameters and their algebraic combination, in addition to the seroprevalence level of the host population, can be used to quantify CCS. The study undertaken in Chapter 4 is used to estimate pathogen persistence using both deterministic and stochastic versions of a model with seasonal birth rate of the vectors. Through stochastic simulations we investigate the pattern of epidemics after the introduction of an infectious individual at different times of the year. The results show that the disease dynamics are altered by the seasonal variation. The higher levels of pre-existing seroprevalence reduces the probability of invasion of dengue. In Chapter 5, I considered two alternate ways to represent the dynamics of a host-vector model. Both of the approximate models are investigated for the parameter regions where the approximation fails to hold. Moreover, three metrics are used to compare them with the Full model. In addition to the computational benefits, these approximations are used to investigate to what degree the inclusion of the vector population in the dynamics of the system is important. Finally, in Chapter 6, I present the summary of studies undertaken and possible extensions for the future work.

Improving Drug Prescription in Elderly Diabetic Patients

Nowadays, there is no doubt that there is a good epidemic of ageing with the inversion of the population pyramid. There is no doubt either about the current epidemic of obesity and bad nutritional habits that have resulted in an increase of diabetic patients in the world. And the union of these epidemics has led to an increase of diabetes (DM) in the elderly.

Decision tools for bacterial blight resistance gene deployment in rice-based agricultural ecosystems

Attempting to achieve long-lasting and stable resistance using uniformly deployed rice varieties is not a sustainable approach. The real situation appears to be much more complex and dynamic, one in which pathogens quickly adapt to resistant varieties. To prevent disease epidemics, deployment should be customized and this decision will require interdisciplinary actions. This perspective article aims to highlight the current progress on disease resistance deployment to control bacterial blight in rice. Although the model system rice-Xanthomonas oryzae pv. oryzae has distinctive features that underpin the need for a case-by-case analysis, strategies to integrate those elements into a unique decision tool could be easily extended to other crops.

La protection de la vie privée au temps de la biosécurité

Cette thèse s’intéresse à la protection de la vie privée informationnelle dans le contexte de la biosécurité. La biosécurité se définit comme le processus qui vise à prendre en charge, dans une optique de sécurité nationale, les menaces et dangers que représentent les épidémies de maladies infectieuses pour la santé des populations humaines et la sécurité de l’État. Notre projet remet en question l’idée selon laquelle la conduite des activités de surveillance de la santé publique implique nécessairement une diminution de la protection offerte aux renseignements personnels sur la santé. Nos recherches tendent à démontrer que la conciliation de la surveillance de la santé et la protection de la vie privée est non seulement possible, mais qu’elle est surtout nécessaire. Nous portons plus précisément notre attention sur le cas de la collecte et de l’utilisation de renseignements dépersonnalisés sur la santé par les systèmes de surveillance syndromique. Bien calibrée et soigneusement réglementée, cette forme novatrice et particulière de surveillance offrirait le double avantage de réduire les risques d’atteintes à la vie privée des individus et d’augmenter de manière considérable l’efficacité des capacités étatiques en matière de détection des épidémies.

Predictive Models for Tomato Spotted Wilt Virus Spread Dynamics, Considering Frankliniella occidentalis Specific Life Processes as Influenced by the Virus

Several models have been studied on predictive epidemics of arthropod vectored plant viruses in an attempt to bring understanding to the complex but specific relationship between the three cornered pathosystem (virus, vector and host plant), as well as their interactions with the environment. A large body of studies mainly focuses on weather based models as management tool for monitoring pests and diseases, with very few incorporating the contribution of vector's life processes in the disease dynamics, which is an essential aspect when mitigating virus incidences in a crop stand. In this study, we hypothesized that the multiplication and spread of tomato spotted wilt virus (TSWV) in a crop stand is strongly related to its influences on Frankliniella occidentalis preferential behavior and life expectancy. Model dynamics of important aspects in disease development within TSWV-F. occidentalis-host plant interactions were developed, focusing on F. occidentalis' life processes as influenced by TSWV. The results show that the influence of TSWV on F. occidentalis preferential behaviour leads to an estimated increase in relative acquisition rate of the virus, and up to 33% increase in transmission rate to healthy plants. Also, increased life expectancy; which relates to improved fitness, is dependent on the virus induced preferential behaviour, consequently promoting multiplication and spread of the virus in a crop stand. The development of vector-based models could further help in elucidating the role of tri-trophic interactions in agricultural disease systems. Use of the model to examine the components of the disease process could also boost our understanding on how specific epidemiological characteristics interact to cause diseases in crops. With this level of understanding we can efficiently develop more precise control strategies for the virus and the vector.

Excess Mortality associated to Influenza epidemic in Portugal, from 2007/2008 to 2014/2015 seasons

Mortality in the north hemisphere is higher in winter than in summer seasons, due to the influenza epidemics as well as cold temperatures. Portuguese influenza surveillance comprises clinical and laboratorial notifications of Influenza-like Illness (ILI) attended in the primary health care units and emergency rooms. Without information on specific cause of deaths in real time, estimation of influenza impact has been accessed using Portuguese Daily Mortality Monitoring System (VDM), that covers all cause mortality of Portuguese population. The aim of this study was to provide excess mortality, potentially associated to Influenza each season (between 2007/08 and 2014/15).