The role of smoking in changes in the survival curve: an empirical study in 10 European countries.

PURPOSE: We examined the role of smoking in the two dimensions behind the time trends in adult mortality in European countries, that is, rectangularization of the survival curve (mortality compression) and longevity extension (increase in the age-at-death). METHODS: Using data on national sex-specific populations aged 50 years and older from Denmark, Finland, France, West Germany, Italy, the Netherlands, Norway, Sweden, Switzerland, and the United Kingdom, we studied trends in life expectancy, rectangularity, and longevity from 1950 to 2009 for both all-cause and nonsmoking-related mortality and correlated them with trends in lifetime smoking prevalence. RESULTS: For all-cause mortality, rectangularization accelerated around 1980 among men in all the countries studied, and more recently among women in Denmark and the United Kingdom. Trends in lifetime smoking prevalence correlated negatively with both rectangularization and longevity extension, but more negatively with rectangularization. For nonsmoking-related mortality, rectangularization among men did not accelerate around 1980. Among women, the differences between all-cause mortality and nonsmoking-related mortality were small, but larger for rectangularization than for longevity extension. Rectangularization contributed less to the increase in life expectancy than longevity extension, especially for nonsmoking-related mortality among men. CONCLUSIONS: Smoking affects rectangularization more than longevity extension, both among men and women.

Can wild ungulate carcasses provide enough biomass to maintain avian scavenger populations? An empirical assessment using a bio-inspired computational model

Background: The reduction in the amount of food available for European avian scavengers as a consequence of restrictive public health policies is a concern for managers and conservationists. Since 2002, the application of several sanitary regulations has limited the availability of feeding resources provided by domestic carcasses, but theoretical studies assessing whether the availability of food resources provided by wild ungulates are enough to cover energetic requirements are lacking. Methodology/Findings: We assessed food provided by a wild ungulate population in two areas of NE Spain inhabited by three vulture species and developed a P System computational model to assess the effects of the carrion resources provided on their population dynamics. We compared the real population trend with to a hypothetical scenario in which only food provided by wild ungulates was available. Simulation testing of the model suggests that wild ungulates constitute an important food resource in the Pyrenees and the vulture population inhabiting this area could grow if only the food provided by wild ungulates would be available. On the contrary, in the Pre-Pyrenees there is insufficient food to cover the energy requirements of avian scavenger guilds, declining sharply if biomass from domestic animals would not be available. Conclusions/Significance: Our results suggest that public health legislation can modify scavenger population trends if a large number of domestic ungulate carcasses disappear from the mountains. In this case, food provided by wild ungulates could be not enough and supplementary feeding could be necessary if other alternative food resources are not available (i.e. the reintroduction of wild ungulates), preferably in European Mediterranean scenarios sharing similar and socio-economic conditions where there are low densities of wild ungulates. Managers should anticipate the conservation actions required by assessing food availability and the possible scenarios in order to make the most suitable decisions.

Affinity distribution functions in multicomponent heterogeneous adsorption. Analytical inversion of isotherms to obtain affinity spectra

An analytical approach for the interpretation of multicomponent heterogeneous adsorption or complexation isotherms in terms of multidimensional affinity spectra is presented. Fourier transform, applied to analyze the corresponding integral equation, leads to an inversion formula which allows the computation of the multicomponent affinity spectrum underlying a given competitive isotherm. Although a different mathematical methodology is used, this procedure can be seen as the extension to multicomponent systems of the classical Sips’s work devoted to monocomponent systems. Furthermore, a methodology which yields analytical expressions for the main statistical properties (mean free energies of binding and covariance matrix) of multidimensional affinity spectra is reported. Thus, the level of binding correlation between the different components can be quantified. It has to be highlighted that the reported methodology does not require the knowledge of the affinity spectrum to calculate the means, variances, and covariance of the binding energies of the different components. Nonideal competitive consistent adsorption isotherm, widely used in metal/proton competitive complexation to environmental macromolecules, and Frumkin competitive isotherms are selected to illustrate the application of the reported results. Explicit analytical expressions for the affinity spectrum as well as for the matrix correlation are obtained for the NICCA case. © 2004 American Institute of Physics.

Optimal capital structure: a trade-off model and its empirical testing

In the present research we have set forth a new, simple, Trade-Off model that would allow us to calculate how much debt and, by default, how much equity a company should have, using easily available information and calculating the cost of debt dynamically on the basis of the effect that the capital structure of the company has on the risk of bankruptcy; in an attempt to answer this question. The proposed model has been applied to the companies that make up the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) in 2007. We have used consolidated financial data from 1996 to 2006, published by Bloomberg. We have used simplex optimization method to find the debt level that maximizes firm value. Then, we compare the estimated debt with real debt of companies using statistical nonparametric Mann-Whitney. The results indicate that 63% of companies do not show a statistically significant difference between the real and the estimated debt.

A territorial approach to R&D subsidies: Empirical evidence for Catalonian firms

Using a database of 2,263 responses to R&D public calls in Catalonia, during the period 2007–2010, this paper proceeds to analyse the potential interaction of the territorial and policy dimensions with the propensity to apply for, and be awarded, a public R&D subsidy. Controlling for characteristics at the firm and project level, we estimate models using a twostep procedure. In the first step, our results suggest that large firms which export and which belong to high-tech manufactures are more likely to participate in a public R&D call. Furthermore, both urban location and past experience of such calls have a positive effect. Our territorial proxy of information spillovers shows a positive sign, but this is only significant at intra-industry level. Membership of one of the sectors prioritized by the Catalan government, perhaps surprisingly, does not have a significant impact. In the second step, our results show that cooperative projects, SMEs or old firms shows a positive effect on the probability of obtaining a public subsidy. Finally, the cluster policy does not show a clear relationship with the public R&D call, suggesting that cluster policies and R&D subsidies follow different goals. Our results are in line with previous results in the literature, but they highlight the unequal territorial distribution of the firms which apply and the fact that policymakers should interlink the decision criteria for their public call with other policies.

Vulnerability as a heuristic for interdisciplinary research: Assessing the thematic and methodological structure of empirical life-course studies

Changes in human lives are studied in psychology, sociology, and adjacent fields as outcomes of developmental processes, institutional regulations and policies, culturally and normatively structured life courses, or empirical accounts. However, such studies have used a wide range of complementary, but often divergent, concepts. This review has two aims. First, we report on the structure that has emerged from scientific life course research by focusing on abstracts from longitudinal and life course studies beginning with the year 2000. Second, we provide a sense of the disciplinary diversity of the field and assess the value of the concept of 'vulnerability' as a heuristic tool for studying human lives. Applying correspondence analysis to 10,632 scientific abstracts, we find a disciplinary divide between psychology and sociology, and observe indications of both similarities of-and differences between-studies, driven at least partly by the data and methods employed. We also find that vulnerability takes a central position in this scientific field, which leads us to suggest several reasons to see value in pursuing theory development for longitudinal and life course studies in this direction.

Impact of the introduction of real-time therapeutic drug monitoring on empirical doses of carbapenems in critically ill burn patients.

PURPOSE: Adequate empirical antibiotic dose selection for critically ill burn patients is difficult due to extreme variability in drug pharmacokinetics. Therapeutic drug monitoring (TDM) may aid antibiotic prescription and implementation of initial empirical antimicrobial dosage recommendations. This study evaluated how gradual TDM introduction altered empirical dosages of meropenem and imipenem/cilastatin in our burn ICU. METHODS: Imipenem/cilastatin and meropenem use and daily empirical dosage at a five-bed burn ICU were analyzed retrospectively. Data for all burn admissions between 2001 and 2011 were extracted from the hospital's computerized information system. For each patient receiving a carbapenem, episodes of infection were reviewed and scored according to predefined criteria. Carbapenem trough serum levels were characterized. Prior to May 2007, TDM was available only by special request. Real-time carbapenem TDM was introduced in June 2007; it was initially available weekly and has been available 4 days a week since 2010. RESULTS: Of 365 patients, 229 (63%) received antibiotics (109 received carbapenems). Of 23 TDM determinations for imipenem/cilastatin, none exceeded the predefined upper limit and 11 (47.8%) were insufficient; the number of TDM requests was correlated with daily dose (r=0.7). Similar numbers of inappropriate meropenem trough levels (30.4%) were below and above the upper limit. Real-time TDM introduction increased the empirical dose of imipenem/cilastatin, but not meropenem. CONCLUSIONS: Real-time carbapenem TDM availability significantly altered the empirical daily dosage of imipenem/cilastatin at our burn ICU. Further studies are needed to evaluate the individual impact of TDM-based antibiotic adjustment on infection outcomes in these patients.

An Empirical Investigation of Defense Interpretation Depth, Defensive Functioning, and Alliance Strength in Psychodynamic Psychotherapy.

The present study examined the relationship between depth of defense interpretations by therapists, and patient defensive functioning, on the therapeutic alliance in a sample of 36 patients undergoing short-term dynamic psychotherapy. Defense interpretation depth was defined as the degree to which therapist interpretations contained information regarding the motivation for patient defenses and historical origins of the defensive processes (Greensen, 1967). Mean depth of interpretation was compared between sessions that were identified beforehand as either high-alliance or low-alliance sessions using the Helping Alliance Questionnaire (HAq-II: Luborsky et al., 1996). Results indicated that defensive functioning was correlated to defense interpretation depth in low-alliance sessions. Moreover, mean depth of interpretation was also higher in low-alliance sessions, pointing to the possible "destabilizing" effects that these interpretations may have on both defensive functioning and the therapeutic alliance. These results are discussed within the context of previous studies of therapeutic technique in dynamic psychotherapy.

Completion and Publication Rates of Randomized Controlled Trials in Surgery: An Empirical Study.

OBJECTIVE: To investigate the prevalence of discontinuation and nonpublication of surgical versus medical randomized controlled trials (RCTs) and to explore risk factors for discontinuation and nonpublication of surgical RCTs. BACKGROUND: Trial discontinuation has significant scientific, ethical, and economic implications. To date, the prevalence of discontinuation of surgical RCTs is unknown. METHODS: All RCT protocols approved between 2000 and 2003 by 6 ethics committees in Canada, Germany, and Switzerland were screened. Baseline characteristics were collected and, if published, full reports retrieved. Risk factors for early discontinuation for slow recruitment and nonpublication were explored using multivariable logistic regression analyses. RESULTS: In total, 863 RCT protocols involving adult patients were identified, 127 in surgery (15%) and 736 in medicine (85%). Surgical trials were discontinued for any reason more often than medical trials [43% vs 27%, risk difference 16% (95% confidence interval [CI]: 5%-26%); P = 0.001] and more often discontinued for slow recruitment [18% vs 11%, risk difference 8% (95% CI: 0.1%-16%); P = 0.020]. The percentage of trials not published as full journal article was similar in surgical and medical trials (44% vs 40%, risk difference 4% (95% CI: -5% to 14%); P = 0.373). Discontinuation of surgical trials was a strong risk factor for nonpublication (odds ratio = 4.18, 95% CI: 1.45-12.06; P = 0.008). CONCLUSIONS: Discontinuation and nonpublication rates were substantial in surgical RCTs and trial discontinuation was strongly associated with nonpublication. These findings need to be taken into account when interpreting surgical literature. Surgical trialists should consider feasibility studies before embarking on full-scale trials.

Impact of round-the-clock CSF Gram stain on empirical therapy for suspected central nervous system infections.

The impact of round-the-clock cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) Gram stain on overnight empirical therapy for suspected central nervous system (CNS) infections was investigated. All consecutive overnight CSF Gram stains between 2006 and 2011 were included. The impact of a positive or a negative test on empirical therapy was evaluated and compared to other clinical and biological indications based on institutional guidelines. Bacterial CNS infection was documented in 51/241 suspected cases. Overnight CSF Gram stain was positive in 24/51. Upon validation, there were two false-positive and one false-negative results. The sensitivity and specificity were 41 and 99 %, respectively. All patients but one had other indications for empirical therapy than Gram stain alone. Upon obtaining the Gram result, empirical therapy was modified in 7/24, including the addition of an appropriate agent (1), addition of unnecessary agents (3) and simplification of unnecessary combination therapy (3/11). Among 74 cases with a negative CSF Gram stain and without formal indication for empirical therapy, antibiotics were withheld in only 29. Round-the-clock CSF Gram stain had a low impact on overnight empirical therapy for suspected CNS infections and was associated with several misinterpretation errors. Clinicians showed little confidence in CSF direct examination for simplifying or withholding therapy before definite microbiological results.

Empirical study of correlated survival times for recurrent events with proportional hazards margins and the effect of correlation and censoring.

Background: In longitudinal studies where subjects experience recurrent incidents over a period of time, such as respiratory infections, fever or diarrhea, statistical methods are required to take into account the within-subject correlation. Methods: For repeated events data with censored failure, the independent increment (AG), marginal (WLW) and conditional (PWP) models are three multiple failure models that generalize Cox"s proportional hazard model. In this paper, we revise the efficiency, accuracy and robustness of all three models under simulated scenarios with varying degrees of within-subject correlation, censoring levels, maximum number of possible recurrences and sample size. We also study the methods performance on a real dataset from a cohort study with bronchial obstruction. Results: We find substantial differences between methods and there is not an optimal method. AG and PWP seem to be preferable to WLW for low correlation levels but the situation reverts for high correlations. Conclusions: All methods are stable in front of censoring, worsen with increasing recurrence levels and share a bias problem which, among other consequences, makes asymptotic normal confidence intervals not fully reliable, although they are well developed theoretically.

The long run impact of mergers and acquisitions on performance – empirical study in the pulp and paper industry

Mergers and acquisitions (M&A) have played very important role in restructuring the pulp and paper industry (PPI). The poor performance and fragmented nature of the industry, overcapacity problems, and globalisation have driven companies to consolidate. The objective of this thesis was to examine how PPI acquirers’ have performed subsequent M&As and whether the deal characteristics have had any impact on performance. Based on the results it seems that PPI companies have not been able to enhance their performance in the long run after M&As although the per-formance of acquiring firms has remained above the industry median, and deal characteristics or the amount of premiums paid do not seem to have had any effect. The statistical significance of the results was tested with change model and regression analysis. Performance was assessed with accrual, cash flow, and market based indicators. Results are congruent with behavioural theory: managers and investors seem to be overoptimistic in determining the synergies from M&As.

The empirical assessment of agency accountability: A regime approach and an application to the German Bundesnetzagentur

Regulation has in many cases been delegated to independent agencies, which has led to the question of how democratic accountability of these agencies is ensured. There are few empirical approaches to agency accountability. We offer such an approach, resting upon three propositions. First, we scrutinize agency accountability both de jure (accountability is ensured by formal rights of accountability 'fora' to receive information and impose consequences) and de facto (the capability of fora to use these rights depends on resources and decision costs that affect the credibility of their sanctioning capacity). Second, accountability must be evaluated separately at political, operational and managerial levels. And third, at each level accountability is enacted by a system of several (partially) interdependent fora, forming together an accountability regime. The proposed framework is applied to the case of the German Bundesnetzagentur's accountability regime, which shows its suitability for empirical purposes. Regulatory agencies are often considered as independent, yet accountable. This article provides a realistic framework for the study of accountability 'regimes' in which they are embedded. It emphasizes the need to identify the various actors (accountability fora) to which agencies are formally accountable (parliamentary committees, auditing bodies, courts, and so on) and to consider possible relationships between them. It argues that formal accountability 'on paper', as defined in official documents, does not fully account for de facto accountability, which depends on the resources possessed by the fora (mainly information-processing and decision-making capacities) and the credibility of their sanctioning capacities. The article applies this framework to the German Bundesnetzagentur.