On Identification of Bayesian DSGE Models

In recent years there has been increasing concern about the identification of parameters in dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) models. Given the structure of DSGE models it may be difficult to determine whether a parameter is identified. For the researcher using Bayesian methods, a lack of identification may not be evident since the posterior of a parameter of interest may differ from its prior even if the parameter is unidentified. We show that this can even be the case even if the priors assumed on the structural parameters are independent. We suggest two Bayesian identification indicators that do not suffer from this difficulty and are relatively easy to compute. The first applies to DSGE models where the parameters can be partitioned into those that are known to be identified and the rest where it is not known whether they are identified. In such cases the marginal posterior of an unidentified parameter will equal the posterior expectation of the prior for that parameter conditional on the identified parameters. The second indicator is more generally applicable and considers the rate at which the posterior precision gets updated as the sample size (T) is increased. For identified parameters the posterior precision rises with T, whilst for an unidentified parameter its posterior precision may be updated but its rate of update will be slower than T. This result assumes that the identified parameters are pT-consistent, but similar differential rates of updates for identified and unidentified parameters can be established in the case of super consistent estimators. These results are illustrated by means of simple DSGE models.

Time-consistent fiscal policy under heterogeneity: Conflicting or common interests?

This paper studies the aggregate and distributional implications of Markov-perfect tax-spending policy in a neoclassical growth model with capitalists and workers. Focusing on the long run, our main fi ndings are: (i) it is optimal for a benevolent government, which cares equally about its citizens, to tax capital heavily and to subsidise labour; (ii) a Pareto improving means to reduce ine¢ ciently high capital taxation under discretion is for the government to place greater weight on the welfare of capitalists; (iii) capitalists and workers preferences, regarding the optimal amount of "capitalist bias", are not aligned implying a conflict of interests.

A Producer Theory with Business Risks

In this paper, we consider a producer who faces uninsurable business risks due to incomplete spanning of asset markets over stochastic goods market outcomes, and examine how the presence of the uninsurable business risks affects the producer's optimal pricing and production behaviours. Three key (inter-related) results we find are: (1) optimal prices in goods markets comprise ‘markup’ to the extent of market power and ‘premium’ by shadow price of the risks; (2) price inertia as we observe in data can be explained by a joint work of risk neutralization motive and marginal cost equalization condition; (3) the relative responsiveness of risk neutralization motive and marginal cost equalization at optimum is central to the cyclical variation of markups, providing a consistent explanation for procyclical and countercyclical movements. By these results, the proposed theory of producer leaves important implications both micro and macro, and both empirical and theoretical.

Estimating United States Phillips Curves With Expectations Consistent With The Statistical Process Of Inflation

‘Modern’ Phillips curve theories predict inflation is an integrated, or near integrated, process. However, inflation appears bounded above and below in developed economies and so cannot be ‘truly’ integrated and more likely stationary around a shifting mean. If agents believe inflation is integrated as in the ‘modern’ theories then they are making systematic errors concerning the statistical process of inflation. An alternative theory of the Phillips curve is developed that is consistent with the ‘true’ statistical process of inflation. It is demonstrated that United States inflation data is consistent with the alternative theory but not with the existing ‘modern’ theories.

Is MDCT enough reliable for the evaluation of acute colitis including the underlying etiology? : correlation with colonoscopy and pathology : P2

Purpose: 1. To assess the diagnostic value of MDCT for acute colitis of various origin confirmed by colonoscopy and histology. 2. To evaluate the accuracy of MDCT of making the correct differential diagnosis. Methods and materials: The electronic hospital database from January 2006 to August 2008 revealed 351 patients with acute colitis of any origin wdetected by colonoscopy. In 85 out of these patients MDCT had been simultaneously performed (delay 3.1 days). Two radiologists jointly reviewed their corresponding CT features without knowledge of pathology and correlated them with the final histological diagnosis. Results: Eighty patients were finally included (46 women, mean age 63.4). Colitis was of ischemic (n = 35, 44%) or infectious (n = 15, 19%) origin. 18 patients (23%) had acute ulcerative colitis or Crohn's disease, in 10 patients (12%) another inflammatory cause and in two patients (2%) post radiation colitis was proven. MDCT was positive in 63 patients (78.9%). In 11 out of the 17 negative MDCT, the examination had been performed without large bowel distention. Ischemic colitis was responsible for 47.1% of the negative MDCT. Correct differential diagnosis was made in 32 (50.7%) out of the 63 positive MDCT. Among the different etiologies, the ischemic colitis was the most often misdiagnosed cause (n = 17, 58.6%). Conclusion: Large bowel distension is mandatory for reliable MDCT detection of acute colitis of any origin. Among the different aetiologies the ischemic cause is the most often associated with false negative MDCT findings and, in case of positive features, the most difficult to recognize as such.

On the association between HLA-A1 and B5 and clinical forms of schistosomiasis mansoni

The association between both HLA-A1 and B5 antigens and chronic forms of human schistosomiasis was studied in 64 patients and 26 normal controls from a southern Brazilian hospital. No apparent correlation between the chronic forms of the disease and the expression of those antigens was detected. However, the analysis of these date together with those observed on an Egyptian sample suggests that the presence of either of the antigens and the hepatomegalic forms of schistosomiasis is significant, without heterogeneity. Converseley, the association of histocompatibility antigens with splenogegaly is consistent and significant only for HLA-B5, but not HLA-A1

The Monetary policy rules and the inflation process in open emerging

This paper has three objectives. First, it aims at revealing the logic of interest rate setting pursued by monetary authorities of 12 new EU members. Using estimation of an augmented Taylor rule, we find that this setting was not always consistent with the official monetary policy. Second, we seek to shed light on the inflation process of these countries. To this end, we carry out an estimation of an open economy Philips curve (PC). Our main finding is that inflation rates were not only driven by backward persistency but also held a forward-looking component. Finally, we assess the viability of existing monetary arrangements for price stability. The analysis of the conditional inflation variance obtained from GARCH estimation of PC is used for this purpose. We conclude that inflation targeting is preferable to an exchange rate peg because it allowed decreasing the inflation rate and anchored its volatility.

Delay and Haircuts in Sovereign Debt: Recovery and Sustainability

One of the striking aspects of recent sovereign debt restructurings is, conditional on default, delay length is positively correlated with the size of "haircut", which is size of creditor losses. In this paper, we develop an incomplete information model of debt restructuring where the prospect of uncertain economic recovery and the signalling about sustainability concerns together generate multi-period delay. The results from our analysis show that there is a correlation between delay length and size of haircut. Such results are supported by evidence. We show that Pareto ranking of equilibria, conditional on default, can be altered once we take into account the ex ante incentive of sovereign debtor. We use our results to evaluate proposals advocated to ensure orderly resolution of sovereign debt crises.

In vivo conditional Pax4 overexpression in mature islet β-cells prevents stress-induced hyperglycemia in mice.

OBJECTIVE To establish the role of the transcription factor Pax4 in pancreatic islet expansion and survival in response to physiological stress and its impact on glucose metabolism, we generated transgenic mice conditionally and selectively overexpressing Pax4 or a diabetes-linked mutant variant (Pax4R129 W) in β-cells. RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS Glucose homeostasis and β-cell death and proliferation were assessed in Pax4- or Pax4R129 W-overexpressing transgenic animals challenged with or without streptozotocin. Isolated transgenic islets were also exposed to cytokines, and apoptosis was evaluated by DNA fragmentation or cytochrome C release. The expression profiles of proliferation and apoptotic genes and β-cell markers were studied by immunohistochemistry and quantitative RT-PCR. RESULTS Pax4 but not Pax4R129 W protected animals against streptozotocin-induced hyperglycemia and isolated islets from cytokine-mediated β-cell apoptosis. Cytochrome C release was abrogated in Pax4 islets treated with cytokines. Interleukin-1β transcript levels were suppressed in Pax4 islets, whereas they were increased along with NOS2 in Pax4R129 W islets. Bcl-2, Cdk4, and c-myc expression levels were increased in Pax4 islets while MafA, insulin, and GLUT2 transcript levels were suppressed in both animal models. Long-term Pax4 expression promoted proliferation of a Pdx1-positive cell subpopulation while impeding insulin secretion. Suppression of Pax4 rescued this defect with a concomitant increase in pancreatic insulin content. CONCLUSIONS Pax4 protects adult islets from stress-induced apoptosis by suppressing selective nuclear factor-κB target genes while increasing Bcl-2 levels. Furthermore, it promotes dedifferentiation and proliferation of β-cells through MafA repression, with a concomitant increase in Cdk4 and c-myc expression.

Correlation of tumor-associated antigens MAGE, NY-ESO-1 and P53 expression with clinical and pathological relationships of patients with oral squamous cell carcinoma

Despite advances in the diagnosisand treatment of head and neck cancer,survival rates have not improvedover recent years. New therapeuticstrategies, including immunotherapy,are the subject of extensive research.In several types of tumors, the presenceof tumor infiltrating lymphocytes(TILs), notably CD8+ T cellsand dendritic cells, has been correlatedwith improved prognosis. Moreover,some T cells among TILs havebeen shown to kill tumor cells in vitroupon recognition of tumor-associatedantigens. Tumor associated antigensare expressed in a significant proportionof squamous cell carcinoma ofthe head and neck and apparently mayplay a role in the regulation of cancercell growth notably by inhibition ofp53 protein function in some cancers.The MAGE family CT antigens couldtherefore potentially be used as definedtargets for immunotherapy andtheir study bring new insight in tumorgrowth regulation mechanisms. Between1995 - 2005 54 patients weretreated surgically in our institution forsquamous cell carcinoma of the oralcavity. Patient and clinical data wasobtained from patient files and collectedinto a computerized database.For each patient, paraffin embeddedtumor specimens were retrieved andexpression of MAGE CT antigens,p53, NY-OESO-1 were analyzed byimmunohistochemistry. Results werethen correlated with histopathologicalparameter such as tumor depth,front invasion according to Bryne andboth, local control and disease freesurvival. MAGE-A was expressed in52% of patients. NY-ESO-1 and p53expression was found in 7% and 52%cases respectively. A higher tumordepth was significantly correlatedwith expression of MAGE-Aproteins(p = 0.03). No significant correlationcould be made between the expressionof both p53 andNY-OESO-1 andhistopathological parameters. Expressionof tumor-associated antigendid not seem to impact significantlyon patient prognosis. As does thedemonstration of p53 function inhibitionby CT antigens of MAGE family,our results suggest, that tumor associatedantigens may be implicated in tumorprogression mechanisms. Thishypothesis need further investigationto clarify the relationship betweenhost immune response and local tumorbiology.

Mefloquine resistant malaria in cameroon and correlation with resistance quinine

Based on the results of in vitro sensitivity of Plasmodium falciparum to chloroquine, quinine and mefloquine, and evaluation of drug consumption conducted in 1987-1988 in four areas in the noth and south-west of Cameron, two opposite situations were encountered in this country. In northern Cameron where mefloquine resistance is prevalent a close correlation was found between the responses of P. falciparum to mefloquine and to quinine, but not between mefloquine and chloroquine. In the south, where chloroquine resistance is highly prevalent, no correlation was found neither between mefloquine and chloroquine nor mefloquine and quinine, but the responses to quinine and chloroquine appear partly correlated. These lead to formulate the hypothesis of a "southern" type of P. falciparum submitted to a high chloroquine drug pressure inducing a secondary cross resistance, whilst a "northern"type submitted to a relatively high and abortive quinine drug pressure inducing a primary quinine resistance and a secondary cross resistance with mefloquine.

Heterogeneity of Ia antigen expression on myeloblastic leukaemias: correlation with stage of maturation defined by cytochemical markers.

The expression of Ia-like antigen (Ia) has been studied in 55 cases of acute myeloid leukaemia (AML) in correlation with the expression of both Sudan Black (SB) and naphthol AS-D chloroacetate esterase (NCAE) stains. Operationally the AML cases were divided into three groups using only NCAE expression on the leukaemic cells: the first group with early maturation stage (MS1) consisted of 30 cases with less than 10% NCAE positive cells (SB: 15-100%): the MS2 group of 14 cases with 10-70% NCAE positive cells (SB: 65-100%) and the MS3 group of 11 cases with 70-100% NCAE positive cells (SB: 89-100%). Ia expression was determined by complement-dependent cytotoxicity, immunofluorescence and immunoperoxidase methods. A similar high percentage (80%) of patients from both group MS1 and MS2 expressed Ia on the surface of 32-100% of the cells. Furthermore, individual comparison of all cases from these two groups showed no correlation between Ia, NCAE and SB expression. Only in the 11 cases from the MS3 group, which included nine cases of promyelocytic leukaemias, was there a correlation between very low expression of Ia antigen with the high NCAE expression. Thus, for AML with a low degree of differentiation the expression of Ia seems to be independent of conventional cytochemical markers of cell maturation.

Estimation of dynamic latent variable models using simulated nonparametric moments

Abstract. Given a model that can be simulated, conditional moments at a trial parameter value can be calculated with high accuracy by applying kernel smoothing methods to a long simulation. With such conditional moments in hand, standard method of moments techniques can be used to estimate the parameter. Because conditional moments are calculated using kernel smoothing rather than simple averaging, it is not necessary that the model be simulable subject to the conditioning information that is used to define the moment conditions. For this reason, the proposed estimator is applicable to general dynamic latent variable models. It is shown that as the number of simulations diverges, the estimator is consistent and a higher-order expansion reveals the stochastic difference between the infeasible GMM estimator based on the same moment conditions and the simulated version. In particular, we show how to adjust standard errors to account for the simulations. Monte Carlo results show how the estimator may be applied to a range of dynamic latent variable (DLV) models, and that it performs well in comparison to several other estimators that have been proposed for DLV models.

Expression of human estrogen receptor mutants in Xenopus oocytes: correlation between transcriptional activity and ability to form protein-DNA complexes.

The human estrogen receptor (hER) is a trans-acting regulatory protein composed of a series of discrete functional domains. We have microinjected an hER expression vector (HEO) into Xenopus oocyte nuclei and demonstrate, using Western blot assay, that the hER is synthesized. When nuclear extracts from oocytes were prepared and incubated in the presence of a 2.7 kb DNA fragment comprising the 5' end of the vitellogenin gene B2, formation of estrogen-dependent complexes could be visualized by electron microscopy over the estrogen responsive element (ERE). Of crucial importance is the observation that the complex formation is inhibited by the estrogen antagonist tamoxifen, is restored by the addition of the hormone and does not take place with extracts from control oocytes injected with the expression vector lacking the sequences encoding the receptor. The presence of the biologically active hER is confirmed in co-injection experiments, in which HEO is co-introduced with a CAT reporter gene under the control of a vitellogenin promoter containing or lacking the ERE. CAT assays and primer extensions analyses reveal that both the receptor and the ERE are essential for estrogen induced stimulation of transcription. The same approach was used to analyze selective hER mutants. We find that the DNA binding domain (region C) is essential for protein--DNA complex formation at the ERE but is not sufficient by itself to activate transcription from the reporter gene. In addition to region C, both the hormone binding (region E) and amino terminal (region A/B) domains are needed for an efficient transcription activation.(ABSTRACT TRUNCATED AT 250 WORDS)