Holocene precipitation change in different monsoon sub-regions (time-slices and transient data) simulated by different global climate models, with links to model results

The recently proposed global monsoon hypothesis interprets monsoon systems as part of one global-scale atmospheric overturning circulation, implying a connection between the regional monsoon systems and an in-phase behaviour of all northern hemispheric monsoons on annual timescales (Trenberth et al., 2000). Whether this concept can be applied to past climates and variability on longer timescales is still under debate, because the monsoon systems exhibit different regional characteristics such as different seasonality (i.e. onset, peak, and withdrawal). To investigate the interconnection of different monsoon systems during the pre-industrial Holocene, five transient global climate model simulations have been analysed with respect to the rainfall trend and variability in different sub-domains of the Afro-Asian monsoon region. Our analysis suggests that on millennial timescales with varying orbital forcing, the monsoons do not behave as a tightly connected global system. According to the models, the Indian and North African monsoons are coupled, showing similar rainfall trend and moderate correlation in rainfall variability in all models. The East Asian monsoon changes independently during the Holocene. The dissimilarities in the seasonality of the monsoon sub-systems lead to a stronger response of the North African and Indian monsoon systems to the Holocene insolation forcing than of the East Asian monsoon and affect the seasonal distribution of Holocene rainfall variations. Within the Indian and North African monsoon domain, precipitation solely changes during the summer months, showing a decreasing Holocene precipitation trend. In the East Asian monsoon region, the precipitation signal is determined by an increasing precipitation trend during spring and a decreasing precipitation change during summer, partly balancing each other. A synthesis of reconstructions and the model results do not reveal an impact of the different seasonality on the timing of the Holocene rainfall optimum in the different sub-monsoon systems. They rather indicate locally inhomogeneous rainfall changes and show, that single palaeo-records should not be used to characterise the rainfall change and monsoon evolution for entire monsoon sub-systems.

Results of the coupled atmosphere-land surface model ECHAM5-JSBACH in NetCDF format

In this study we present first results of a new model development, ECHAM5-JSBACH-wiso, where we have incorporated the stable water isotopes H218O and HDO as tracers in the hydrological cycle of the coupled atmosphere-land surface model ECHAM5-JSBACH. The ECHAM5-JSBACH-wiso model was run under present-day climate conditions at two different resolutions (T31L19, T63L31). A comparison between ECHAM5-JSBACH-wiso and ECHAM5-wiso shows that the coupling has a strong impact on the simulated temperature and soil wetness. Caused by these changes of temperature and the hydrological cycle, the d18O in precipitation also shows variations from -4 permil up to 4 permil. One of the strongest anomalies is shown over northeast Asia where, due to an increase of temperature, the d18O in precipitation increases as well. In order to analyze the sensitivity of the fractionation processes over land, we compare a set of simulations with various implementations of these processes over the land surface. The simulations allow us to distinguish between no fractionation, fractionation included in the evaporation flux (from bare soil) and also fractionation included in both evaporation and transpiration (from water transport through plants) fluxes. While the isotopic composition of the soil water may change for d18O by up to +8 permil:, the simulated d18O in precipitation shows only slight differences on the order of ±1 permil. The simulated isotopic composition of precipitation fits well with the available observations from the GNIP (Global Network of Isotopes in Precipitation) database.

Predictable hydrodynamic conditions explain temporal variations in the density of benthic foraging seabirds in a tidal stream environment

Tidal stream turbines could have several direct impacts upon pursuit-diving seabirds foraging within tidal stream environments (mean horizontal current speeds > 2 ms−1), including collisions and displacement. Understanding how foraging seabirds respond to temporally variable but predictable hydrodynamic conditions immediately around devices could identify when interactions between seabirds and devices are most likely to occur; information which would quantify the magnitude of potential impacts, and also facilitate the development of suitable mitigation measures. This study uses shore-based observational surveys and Finite Volume Community Ocean Model outputs to test whether temporally predictable hydrodynamic conditions (horizontal current speeds, water elevation, turbulence) influenced the density of foraging black guillemots Cepphus grylle and European shags Phalacrocorax aristotelis in a tidal stream environment in Orkney, United Kingdom, during the breeding season. These species are particularly vulnerable to interactions with devices due to their tendency to exploit benthic and epi-benthic prey on or near the seabed. The density of both species decreased as a function of horizontal current speeds, whereas the density of black guillemots also decreased as a function of water elevation. These relationships could be linked to higher energetic costs of dives in particularly fast horizontal current speeds (>3 ms−1) and deeper water. Therefore, interactions between these species and moving components seem unlikely at particularly high horizontal current speeds. Combining this information, with that on the rotation rates of moving components at lower horizontal current speeds, could be used to assess collision risk in this site during breeding seasons. It is also likely that moderating any device operation during both lowest water elevation and lowest horizontal current speeds could reduce the risk of collisions for these species in this site during this season. The approaches used in this study could have useful applications within Environmental Impact Assessments, and should be considered when assessing and mitigating negative impacts from specific devices within development sites.

A biologically inspired appearance model for robust visual tracking

In this work, we propose a biologically inspired appearance model for robust visual tracking. Motivated in part by the success of the hierarchical organization of the primary visual cortex (area V1), we establish an architecture consisting of five layers: whitening, rectification, normalization, coding and polling. The first three layers stem from the models developed for object recognition. In this paper, our attention focuses on the coding and pooling layers. In particular, we use a discriminative sparse coding method in the coding layer along with spatial pyramid representation in the pooling layer, which makes it easier to distinguish the target to be tracked from its background in the presence of appearance variations. An extensive experimental study shows that the proposed method has higher tracking accuracy than several state-of-the-art trackers.

Face recognition using a unified 3D morphable model

We address the problem of 3D-assisted 2D face recognition in scenarios when the input image is subject to degradations or exhibits intra-personal variations not captured by the 3D model. The proposed solution involves a novel approach to learn a subspace spanned by perturbations caused by the missing modes of variation and image degradations, using 3D face data reconstructed from 2D images rather than 3D capture. This is accomplished by modelling the difference in the texture map of the 3D aligned input and reference images. A training set of these texture maps then defines a perturbation space which can be represented using PCA bases. Assuming that the image perturbation subspace is orthogonal to the 3D face model space, then these additive components can be recovered from an unseen input image, resulting in an improved fit of the 3D face model. The linearity of the model leads to efficient fitting. Experiments show that our method achieves very competitive face recognition performance on Multi-PIE and AR databases. We also present baseline face recognition results on a new data set exhibiting combined pose and illumination variations as well as occlusion.

Coupling short-term (B2G model) and long-term (g-function) models for ground source heat exchanger simulation in TRNSYS. Application in a real installation

Ground-source heat pump (GSHP) systems represent one of the most promising techniques for heating and cooling in buildings. These systems use the ground as a heat source/sink, allowing a better efficiency thanks to the low variations of the ground temperature along the seasons. The ground-source heat exchanger (GSHE) then becomes a key component for optimizing the overall performance of the system. Moreover, the short-term response related to the dynamic behaviour of the GSHE is a crucial aspect, especially from a regulation criteria perspective in on/off controlled GSHP systems. In this context, a novel numerical GSHE model has been developed at the Instituto de Ingeniería Energética, Universitat Politècnica de València. Based on the decoupling of the short-term and the long-term response of the GSHE, the novel model allows the use of faster and more precise models on both sides. In particular, the short-term model considered is the B2G model, developed and validated in previous research works conducted at the Instituto de Ingeniería Energética. For the long-term, the g-function model was selected, since it is a previously validated and widely used model, and presents some interesting features that are useful for its combination with the B2G model. The aim of the present paper is to describe the procedure of combining these two models in order to obtain a unique complete GSHE model for both short- and long-term simulation. The resulting model is then validated against experimental data from a real GSHP installation.

Assessing trends in land use change in the Borana rangeland Ethiopia as one cause of greenhouse gas emissions and carbon sequestration variations

Landnutzungsänderungen sind eine wesentliche Ursache von Treibhausgasemissionen. Die Umwandlung von Ökosystemen mit permanenter natürlicher Vegetation hin zu Ackerbau mit zeitweise vegetationslosem Boden (z.B. nach der Bodenbearbeitung vor der Aussaat) führt häufig zu gesteigerten Treibhausgasemissionen und verminderter Kohlenstoffbindung. Weltweit dehnt sich Ackerbau sowohl in kleinbäuerlichen als auch in agro-industriellen Systemen aus, häufig in benachbarte semiaride bis subhumide Rangeland Ökosysteme. Die vorliegende Arbeit untersucht Trends der Landnutzungsänderung im Borana Rangeland Südäthiopiens. Bevölkerungswachstum, Landprivatisierung und damit einhergehende Einzäunung, veränderte Landnutzungspolitik und zunehmende Klimavariabilität führen zu raschen Veränderungen der traditionell auf Tierhaltung basierten, pastoralen Systeme. Mittels einer Literaturanalyse von Fallstudien in ostafrikanischen Rangelands wurde im Rahmen dieser Studie ein schematisches Modell der Zusammenhänge von Landnutzung, Treibhausgasemissionen und Kohlenstofffixierung entwickelt. Anhand von Satellitendaten und Daten aus Haushaltsbefragungen wurden Art und Umfang von Landnutzungsänderungen und Vegetationsveränderungen an fünf Untersuchungsstandorten (Darito/Yabelo Distrikt, Soda, Samaro, Haralo, Did Mega/alle Dire Distrikt) zwischen 1985 und 2011 analysiert. In Darito dehnte sich die Ackerbaufläche um 12% aus, überwiegend auf Kosten von Buschland. An den übrigen Standorten blieb die Ackerbaufläche relativ konstant, jedoch nahm Graslandvegetation um zwischen 16 und 28% zu, während Buschland um zwischen 23 und 31% abnahm. Lediglich am Standort Haralo nahm auch „bare land“, vegetationslose Flächen, um 13% zu. Faktoren, die zur Ausdehnung des Ackerbaus führen, wurden am Standort Darito detaillierter untersucht. GPS Daten und anbaugeschichtlichen Daten von 108 Feldern auf 54 Betrieben wurden in einem Geographischen Informationssystem (GIS) mit thematischen Boden-, Niederschlags-, und Hangneigungskarten sowie einem Digitales Höhenmodell überlagert. Multiple lineare Regression ermittelte Hangneigung und geographische Höhe als signifikante Erklärungsvariablen für die Ausdehnung von Ackerbau in niedrigere Lagen. Bodenart, Entfernung zum saisonalen Flusslauf und Niederschlag waren hingegen nicht signifikant. Das niedrige Bestimmtheitsmaß (R²=0,154) weist darauf hin, dass es weitere, hier nicht erfasste Erklärungsvariablen für die Richtung der räumlichen Ausweitung von Ackerland gibt. Streudiagramme zu Ackergröße und Anbaujahren in Relation zu geographischer Höhe zeigen seit dem Jahr 2000 eine Ausdehnung des Ackerbaus in Lagen unter 1620 müNN und eine Zunahme der Schlaggröße (>3ha). Die Analyse der phänologischen Entwicklung von Feldfrüchten im Jahresverlauf in Kombination mit Niederschlagsdaten und normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) Zeitreihendaten dienten dazu, Zeitpunkte besonders hoher (Begrünung vor der Ernte) oder niedriger (nach der Bodenbearbeitung) Pflanzenbiomasse auf Ackerland zu identifizieren, um Ackerland und seine Ausdehnung von anderen Vegetationsformen fernerkundlich unterscheiden zu können. Anhand der NDVI Spektralprofile konnte Ackerland gut Wald, jedoch weniger gut von Gras- und Buschland unterschieden werden. Die geringe Auflösung (250m) der Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) NDVI Daten führte zu einem Mixed Pixel Effect, d.h. die Fläche eines Pixels beinhaltete häufig verschiedene Vegetationsformen in unterschiedlichen Anteilen, was deren Unterscheidung beeinträchtigte. Für die Entwicklung eines Echtzeit Monitoring Systems für die Ausdehnung des Ackerbaus wären höher auflösende NDVI Daten (z.B. Multispektralband, Hyperion EO-1 Sensor) notwendig, um kleinräumig eine bessere Differenzierung von Ackerland und natürlicher Rangeland-Vegetation zu erhalten. Die Entwicklung und der Einsatz solcher Methoden als Entscheidungshilfen für Land- und Ressourcennutzungsplanung könnte dazu beitragen, Produktions- und Entwicklungsziele der Borana Landnutzer mit nationalen Anstrengungen zur Eindämmung des Klimawandels durch Steigerung der Kohlenstofffixierung in Rangelands in Einklang zu bringen.

Transient simulations for present and last interglacials using a comprehensive coupled climate model CCSM3 (Community Climate System Model 3.0), links to model result files in NetCDF format

Transient simulations are widely used in studying the past climate as they provide better comparison with any exisiting proxy data. However, multi-millennial transient simulations using coupled climate models are usually computationally very expensive. As a result several acceleration techniques are implemented when using numerical simulations to recreate past climate. In this study, we compare the results from transient simulations of the present and the last interglacial with and without acceleration of the orbital forcing, using the comprehensive coupled climate model CCSM3 (Community Climate System Model 3). Our study shows that in low-latitude regions, the simulation of long-term variations in interglacial surface climate is not significantly affected by the use of the acceleration technique (with an acceleration factor of 10) and hence, large-scale model-data comparison of surface variables is not hampered. However, in high-latitude regions where the surface climate has a direct connection to the deep ocean, e.g. in the Southern Ocean or the Nordic Seas, acceleration-induced biases in sea-surface temperature evolution may occur with potential influence on the dynamics of the overlying atmosphere. The data provided here are from both accelerated and non-accelerated runs as decadal mean values.

Multiphase modeling of melting / solidification with high density variations using XFEM

La modélisation de la cryolite, utilisée dans la fabrication de l’aluminium, implique plusieurs défis, notament la présence de discontinuités dans la solution et l’inclusion de la difference de densité entre les phases solide et liquide. Pour surmonter ces défis, plusieurs éléments novateurs ont été développés dans cette thèse. En premier lieu, le problème du changement de phase, communément appelé problème de Stefan, a été résolu en deux dimensions en utilisant la méthode des éléments finis étendue. Une formulation utilisant un multiplicateur de Lagrange stable spécialement développée et une interpolation enrichie a été utilisée pour imposer la température de fusion à l’interface. La vitesse de l’interface est déterminée par le saut dans le flux de chaleur à travers l’interface et a été calculée en utilisant la solution du multiplicateur de Lagrange. En second lieu, les effets convectifs ont été inclus par la résolution des équations de Stokes dans la phase liquide en utilisant la méthode des éléments finis étendue aussi. Troisièmement, le changement de densité entre les phases solide et liquide, généralement négligé dans la littérature, a été pris en compte par l’ajout d’une condition aux limites de vitesse non nulle à l’interface solide-liquide pour respecter la conservation de la masse dans le système. Des problèmes analytiques et numériques ont été résolus pour valider les divers composants du modèle et le système d’équations couplés. Les solutions aux problèmes numériques ont été comparées aux solutions obtenues avec l’algorithme de déplacement de maillage de Comsol. Ces comparaisons démontrent que le modèle par éléments finis étendue reproduit correctement le problème de changement phase avec densités variables.

A kinetic energy budget and internal instabilities in the Fine Resolution Antarctic Model

An energy analysis of the Fine Resolution Antarctic Model (FRAM) reveals the instability processes in the model. The main source of time-mean kinetic energy is the wind stress and the main sink is transfer to mean potential energy. The wind forcing thus helps maintain the density structure. Transient motions result from internal instabilities of the Bow rather than seasonal variations of the forcing. Baroclinic instability is found to be an important mechanism in FRAM. The highest values of available potential energy are found in the western boundary regions as well as in the Antarctic Circumpolar Current (ACC) region. All subregions with predominantly zonal flow are found to be baroclinically unstable. The observed deficit of eddy kinetic energy in FRAM occurs as a result of the high lateral friction, which decreases the growth rates of the most unstable waves. This high friction is required for the numerical stability of the model and can only be made smaller by using a finer horizontal resolution. A grid spacing of at least 10-15 km would be required to resolve the most unstable waves in the southern part of the domain. Barotropic instability is also found to be important for the total domain balance. The inverse transfer (that is, transfer from eddy to mean kinetic energy) does not occur anywhere, except in very localized tight jets in the ACC. The open boundary condition at the northern edge of the model domain does not represent a significant source or sink of eddy variability. However, a large exchange between internal and external mode energies is found to occur. It is still unclear how these boundary conditions affect the dynamics of adjacent regions.

Genetic diversity across geographical scales in marine coastal ecosystems: Holothuria arguinensis a model species

Coastal lagoons are considered one of the most productive areas of our planet harboring a large variety of habitats. Their transitional character, between terrestrial and marine environments, creates a very particular ecosystem with important variations of its environmental conditions. The organisms that are able to survive on these ecosystems frequently experience strong selective pressures and constrictions to gene flowwith marine populations, which could contribute to genetic divergence among populations inhabiting coastal lagoon and marine environments. Therefore, the main aims of this study are to asses the genetic diversity and population structure of Holothuria arguinensis across geographical ranges, to test the hypothesis of coastal lagoons as hotspots of genetic diversity in the Ria Formosa lagoon, and to determine the role of exporting standing genetic variation from the lagoon to open sea and their implications to recent geographical expansion events. To reach these objectives, we investigate the genetic structure of H. arguinensis using two mitochondrial DNA markers (COI and 16S) at different spatial scales: i) small, inside Ria Formosa coastal lagoon, South Portugal; 2) large, including most of the geographical distribution of this species (South and Western Portuguese coast and Canary islands); these results will allow us to compare the genetic diversity of lagoonal and marine populations of H. arguinensis. On this framework, its recent geographical expansion events, recorded by Rodrigues (2012) and González-Wangüemert and Borrero-Pérez (2012), will be analyzed considering the potential contribution from lagoonal genetic pool. Non-significant genetic structure and high haplotypic diversity were found inside the Ria Formosa coastal lagoon. Both genes were unable to detect significant genetic differentiation among lagoonal and marine localities, suggesting a high rate of gene flow. The results supported our hypotheses that coastal lagoons are not only acting as hotspots of genetic diversity, but also contributing for the genetic variability of the species, working as a source of new haplotypes and enhancing adaptation to the high variable conditions. Different genetic patterns of colonization were found on H. arguinensis, but they must be studied more deeply.

Effets des variations dans l’implantation d’un programme sur le risque cardiométabolique dans six CSSS de Montréal sur les résultats chez les patients

En 2011, l’Agence de la santé et des services sociaux de Montréal (ASSSM), en partenariat avec les Centres de santé et services sociaux (CSSS) de la région, a coordonné la mise en œuvre d’un programme de prévention et de prise en charge intégré sur le risque cardiométabolique. Ce programme, s’inspirant du Chronic Care Model et s’adressant aux patients atteints de diabète et d’hypertension artérielle, est d’une durée de deux ans et comporte une séquence de suivis individuels avec l’infirmière et la nutritionniste, de cours de groupe et de séances d’activité physique. L’objectif de ce mémoire est d’évaluer, à l’aide d’un devis quasi-expérimental, l’impact de la variation dans l’implantation de certains aspects du programme dans les six CSSS participant à l’étude sur les résultats de santé des patients. Cinq aspects du programme ont été retenus : les ressources, la conformité au processus clinique prévu dans le programme régional, la maturité du programme, la coordination interne au sein de l’équipe de soins et la coordination externe avec les médecins de 1re ligne. Des analyses de différence de différences, incluant des scores de propension afin de rendre les groupes comparables, ont été effectuées dans le but d’évaluer l’influence de ces aspects sur quatre indicateurs de santé : l’hémoglobine glyquée, l’atteinte de la cible de tension artérielle et l’atteinte de deux cibles d’habitudes de vie concernant la répartition des glucides alimentaires et la pratique d’activité physique. Les résultats indiquent que les indicateurs de santé sélectionnés se sont améliorés chez les patients participant au programme et ce, indépendamment des variations dans son implantation entre les CSSS participant à l’étude. Très peu d’analyses de différence de différences ont en effet relevé un impact significatif des variables d’implantation étudiées sur ces indicateurs. Les résultats suggèrent que les effets bénéfiques d’un tel programme sont davantage tributaires de la prestation des interventions auprès des patients que d’aspects organisationnels liés à son implantation.

Effets des variations dans l’implantation d’un programme sur le risque cardiométabolique dans six CSSS de Montréal sur les résultats chez les patients

En 2011, l’Agence de la santé et des services sociaux de Montréal (ASSSM), en partenariat avec les Centres de santé et services sociaux (CSSS) de la région, a coordonné la mise en œuvre d’un programme de prévention et de prise en charge intégré sur le risque cardiométabolique. Ce programme, s’inspirant du Chronic Care Model et s’adressant aux patients atteints de diabète et d’hypertension artérielle, est d’une durée de deux ans et comporte une séquence de suivis individuels avec l’infirmière et la nutritionniste, de cours de groupe et de séances d’activité physique. L’objectif de ce mémoire est d’évaluer, à l’aide d’un devis quasi-expérimental, l’impact de la variation dans l’implantation de certains aspects du programme dans les six CSSS participant à l’étude sur les résultats de santé des patients. Cinq aspects du programme ont été retenus : les ressources, la conformité au processus clinique prévu dans le programme régional, la maturité du programme, la coordination interne au sein de l’équipe de soins et la coordination externe avec les médecins de 1re ligne. Des analyses de différence de différences, incluant des scores de propension afin de rendre les groupes comparables, ont été effectuées dans le but d’évaluer l’influence de ces aspects sur quatre indicateurs de santé : l’hémoglobine glyquée, l’atteinte de la cible de tension artérielle et l’atteinte de deux cibles d’habitudes de vie concernant la répartition des glucides alimentaires et la pratique d’activité physique. Les résultats indiquent que les indicateurs de santé sélectionnés se sont améliorés chez les patients participant au programme et ce, indépendamment des variations dans son implantation entre les CSSS participant à l’étude. Très peu d’analyses de différence de différences ont en effet relevé un impact significatif des variables d’implantation étudiées sur ces indicateurs. Les résultats suggèrent que les effets bénéfiques d’un tel programme sont davantage tributaires de la prestation des interventions auprès des patients que d’aspects organisationnels liés à son implantation.

Modelling and simulations of ductile iron solidification-induced variations in mechanical behaviour on component and microstructural level

The mechanical behaviour and performance of a ductile iron component is highly dependent on the local variations in solidification conditions during the casting process. Here we show a framework which combine a previously developed closed chain of simulations for cast components with a micro-scale Finite Element Method (FEM) simulation of the behaviour and performance of the microstructure. A casting process simulation, including modelling of solidification and mechanical material characterization, provides the basis for a macro-scale FEM analysis of the component. A critical region is identified to which the micro-scale FEM simulation of a representative microstructure, generated using X-ray tomography, is applied. The mechanical behaviour of the different microstructural phases are determined using a surrogate model based optimisation routine and experimental data. It is discussed that the approach enables a link between solidification- and microstructure-models and simulations of as well component as microstructural behaviour, and can contribute with new understanding regarding the behaviour and performance of different microstructural phases and morphologies in industrial ductile iron components in service.

Characterisation and investigation of local variations in mechanical behaviour in cast aluminium using gradient solidification, Digital Image Correlation and finite element simulation

Due to design and process-related factors, there are local variations in the microstructure and mechanical behaviour of cast components. This work establishes a Digital Image Correlation (DIC) based method for characterisation and investigation of the effects of such local variations on the behaviour of a high pressure, die cast (HPDC) aluminium alloy. Plastic behaviour is studied using gradient solidified samples and characterisation models for the parameters of the Hollomon equation are developed, based on microstructural refinement. Samples with controlled microstructural variations are produced and the observed DIC strain field is compared with Finite Element Method (FEM) simulation results. The results show that the DIC based method can be applied to characterise local mechanical behaviour with high accuracy. The microstructural variations are observed to cause a redistribution of strain during tensile loading. This redistribution of strain can be predicted in the FEM simulation by incorporating local mechanical behaviour using the developed characterization model. A homogeneous FEM simulation is unable to predict the observed behaviour. The results motivate the application of a previously proposed simulation strategy, which is able to predict and incorporate local variations in mechanical behaviour into FEM simulations already in the design process for cast components.