Previsão da expedição de papelão ondulado a partir de modelos com variáveis agregadas e desagregadas

O presente trabalho visa comparar o poder preditivo das previsões feitas a partir de diferentes metodologias aplicadas para a série de expedição brasileira de papelão ondulado. Os dados de expedição de papelão ondulado serão decompostos pelas categorias industriais de destino das caixas e serão feitos modelos do tipo SARIMA univariados para cada setor. As previsões das séries desagregadas serão então agregadas, para compor a previsão da série total de expedição. A previsão feita a partir da somatória das categorias industriais será comparada com um SARIMA univariado da série agregada, a fim de verificar qual dos dois métodos resulta em um modelo com melhor acurácia. Essa comparação será feita a partir da metodologia desenvolvida por Diebold e Mariano (1995).

O aspecto polifônico d os Lusíadas

A study about the polyphonic aspect of The Lusiads. An epic poem in Portuguese Language written by Luís de Camões, that narrates the adventure of the journey of Vasco da Gama in the discoverer of new shipping lanes for the Índias. Secondarily, tells the historics battles engaged during the process of foundation and consolidation of the Portuguese Empire. The object of the study are the diverse speeches that compose the poem s narration, aiming at to the possible aesthetic relation of the epic poetry of Camões with the novelistic prose developed in the modernity, starting with D. Quijote and consacrating it at polyphonic novels written by Dostoiévski. The sdudy focuses the singularity of Camões lies in the elaboration of a narrative structurally epic, but at the same time contains several deviating speeches. Such speeches emphasize the multiple planes and multiple voices (characteristics of novelistic prose) without, however, prejudice the interlinking logical-formal epos, resulting in the monological finish conventional of the epic gender. This feature characterizes The Lusiads as monological literary work, but also shows dialogism and plurilinguism, essentials to the polyphonic phenomenon. Another prominent aspect of the poetry of Camões is the relative procedure to the expressiveness of the characters. They are, in the majority, rhetorical creations, which assume, in the speech, human or myhtological characteristics. Stratagem that permits to the poet to emit a multiple faces of vision of the facts told. The analysis of the speeches supports-itself entirely in the polyphonic theory of Mikhail Bakhtin, shall be cited, accessory, viewpoints of others theoretical, as long if it is judged compatible with the theory adopted

Avaliação da fissuração por fadiga em tubos durante transporte marítimo

Tubos de aço são transportados diariamente em todo o mundo, por caminhão, trem ou navio. Conseqüentemente, danos de transporte, podem ocorrer com freqüência e regularidade. O tipo de dano particular selecionado para este estudo foi o de trinca por fadiga, o qual é considerado como um dos mais críticos. Neste trabalho foram estudados tubos de aço fabricados de acordo com os requisitos da norma API 5L [1]. Foram efetuadas caracterizações químicas, mecânicas e metalográficas de um tubo com diâmetro 609,6 mm e espessura 15,87 mm grau X-65. A simulação do transporte por navio de tubos de aço foi feita submetendo-se seções de tubo com comprimento igual a 0,1 metro, a ciclos de fadiga por meio de máquina servo-hidráulica. Foi possível concluir que em tubos soldados, a região adjacente ao cordão de solda é a mais crítica, e que quando o posicionamento do tubo na carga é efetuado de maneira que a solda fique apoiada sobre alguma superfície rígida, a ocorrência de trinca por fadiga torna-se possível principalmente se os procedimentos de manuseio, carregamento e transporte não forem executados da maneira como recomendada pelos fabricantes de tubos e pela norma API [2].

Sistema integrado para tomada de decisão espacial em situações de derramamento de óleo no litoral norte do Estado do RN

The northern coast of Rio Grande do Norte State (RN) shows areas of Potiguar basin with high activity in petroleum industry. With the goal of avoiding and reducing the accident risks with oil it is necessary to understand the natural vulnerability, mapping natural resources and monitoring the oil spill. The use of computational tools for environmental monitoring makes possible better analyses and decisions in political management of environmental preservation. This work shows a methodology for monitoring of environment impacts, with purpose of avoiding and preserving the sensible areas in oil contact. That methodology consists in developing and embedding an integrated computational system. Such system is composed by a Spatial Decision Support System (SDSS). The SDSS shows a computational infrastructure composed by Web System of Geo-Environmental and Geographic Information - SWIGG , the System of Environmental Sensibility Maps for Oil Spill AutoMSA , and the Basic System of Environmental Hydrodynamic ( SisBAHIA a System of Modeling and Numerical Simulating SMNS). In a scenario of oil spill occurred coastwise of Rio Grande do Norte State s northern coast, the integration of such systems will give support to decision agents for managing of environmental impacts. Such support is supplied through a system of supporting to spatial decisions

The invasion of five alien species in the Delta do Parnaiba Environmental Protection Area, Northeastern Brazil

Marine biological invasions have been regarded as one of the major causes of native biodiversity loss, with shipping and aquaculture being the leading contributors for the introductions of alien species in aquatic ecosystems. In the present study, five aquatic alien species (one mollusk, three crustaceans and one fish species) were detected during dives, shore searches and from the fisheries on the coast of the Delta do Parnaiba Environmental Protection Area, in the States of Piaui and Maranhao, Northeastern Brazil. The species were the bicolor purse-oyster Isognomon bicolor, the whiteleg shrimp Litopenaeus vannamei, the giant river prawn Macrobrachium rosenbergii, the Indo-Pacific swimming crab Charybdis hellerii and, the muzzled blenny Omobranchus punctatus. Ballast water (I. bicolor, C. hellerii, and O. punctatus) and aquaculture activities (L. vannamei and M. rosenbergii) in adjacent areas are the most likely vectors of introduction. All exotic species found have potential impact risks to the environment because they are able to compete against native species for resources (food and habitat). Isognomon bicolor share the same habitat and food items with the native bivalve species of mussels and barnacles. Litopenaeus vannamei share the same habitat and food items with the native penaeids such as the pinkspot shrimp Farfantepenaeus brasiliensis, the Southern brown shrimp Farfantepenaeus subtilis, and the Southern white shrimp Litopenaeus schmitti, and in the past few years L. vannamei was responsible for a viral epidemics in the cultivation tanks that could be transmitted to native penaeid shrimps. Charybdis hellerii is also able to cause impacts on the local fisheries as the species can decrease the populations of native portunid crabs which are commercialized in the studied region. Macrobrachium rosenbergii may be sharing natural resources with the Amazon River prawn Macrobrachium amazonicum. Omobranchus punctatus shares habit with the native redlip blenny Ophioblennius atlanticus and other fishes, such as the frillfin goby Bathigobius soporator. Some immediate remedial measures to prevent further introductions from ballast water and shrimp farm ponds should be: (i) to prevent the release of ballast water by ship/vessels in the region; (ii) to reroute all effluent waters from shrimp rearing facilities through an underground or above-ground dry well; (iii) to install adequate sand and gravel filter which will allow passage of water but not livestock; (iv) outdoor shrimp pounds located on floodable land should be diked, and; (v) to promote environmental awareness of those directly involved with ballast water (crews of ship/vessels) and shrimp farms in the region. Rev. Biol. Trop. 58 (3): 909-923. Epub 2010 September 01.

E-commerce environment and trade promotion for Latin America: policy implications from East Asian and advanced economies' experiences

Includes bibliography

Bridging infrastructural gaps in Central America: prospects and potential for maritime transport

Includes bibliography

Report on maritime transport and the environment for Latin America

Includes bibliography

Maritime sector and ports in the Caribbean: the case of CARICOM countries

Includes bibliography

Trade and maritime transport between Africa and South America

Includes bibliography

An analysis of maritime transport and its costs for the Caribbean

Includes bibliography

The Netherlands Antilles: trade and integration with CARICOM

Introduction The Netherlands Antilles is an autonomous entity within the Kingdom of the Netherlands and comprises a federation of five Caribbean islands: Bonaire and Curacao (the Leeward islands) which comprise 80 per cent of the population of 211,000 and Saba, St. Eustatius and the southern part of St. Maarten (the Windward islands). Like the other countries in the Kingdom, it enjoys full autonomy in internal matters as, for example, education, public health, justice and customs. It has a per capita income of about US$ 12,000. The Leeward Islands and the Windward Islands account for about 75 per cent (Curacao (70 per cent) and Bonaire (5 per cent)) and 25 percent respectively of the economy of the Netherlands Antilles. The Netherlands Antilles has its own currency, the Netherlands guilder, which is pegged to the United States dollar at a fixed rate since 1971. The economy has some unique features that stem from its close relations with the Netherlands, its undiversified nature and heavy dependence on tourism, offshore finance, oil refining and shipping, the high share of trade (exports of goods and services of about 75 per cent of GDP), its geographical characteristics, its common border with the French Republic on St. Maarten, its duty-free access for imports from Aruba, its de facto free trade zone (FTZ), partial dollarization, especially for the Windward Islands, and its highly regulated labor market (1). Adverse economic shocks in the last two decades affected particularly the offshore financial sector and the oil refinery and, to a lesser extent, tourism. The repeal of withholding taxes in the United States in the 1980s indirectly caused the collapse of a number of highly profitable offshore financial activities in Curacao, leading to significant drops in government revenue and contributions to foreign exchange earnings. The withdrawal of Shell from Curacao in 1986 and the (temporary) closure of the oil refinery which had been a mainstay of the Curacao economy for almost three quarters of a century was the second major shock. It was subsequently leased to the Venezuelan State Company, Petroleos de Venezuela Sociedad Anonima (PDVSA), which resumed operations and preserved employment. In the 1990s, the Windward Islands were bit by several devastating hurricanes, which destroyed much of the economic infrastructure on the islands, including about half of the number of available hotel rooms in St Maarten. Further negative shocks were related to the discontinuation of certain trade privileges on European markets for Overseas Countries and Territories (OCTs), the withdrawal by the Netherlands of certain tax privileges for Dutch pensioners residing in the Netherlands Antilles and disruptions in the availability of Solidarity Fund resources for the smaller islands. National income has been on the decline since 1997. GDP declined by about 6 per cent between 1997 and 1999. Underlying fiscal imbalances and structural weaknesses have also impacted negatively on the economy. In recent years, with recession high unemployment and migration have been experienced (2). The Netherlands Antilles has been able to survive thanks to additional aid from the Netherlands, large-scale spontaneous emigration (mostly to the Netherlands), some drop in international reserves, an increase in domestic debt and arrears and reduced outlays for the maintenance of public assets. From 1986 onwards, successive efforts at restoring macroeconomic balance, particularly with regard to public finance, were made, but were unsuccessful. Adjustment was also attempted in 1996 and 1997, but failed to meet the desired targets. In 1999, the government launched a new National Recovery Plan" (NRP). The NRP contains important medium-term structural adjustment measures aimed at restoring macroeconomic balance and conditions for revitalizing the economy. The NRP subsequently served as an important input into a comprehensive adjustment plan drawn up with the assistance of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and reflected in the government's Memorandum of Economic Policies dated 15 September 2000. Beyond restoring macroeconomic balance and reforming the economic incentive framework, the government aims at establishing a Comprehensive Development Framework (CDF) for the formulation and implementation of a sustainable long-term growth strategy. It is against the above background that this study is undertaken. Its main objective is to assess the integration options facing the Netherlands Antilles (3) vis-a-vis the Caribbean Community (CARICOM). A secondary objective is to examine the above taking into account, inter alia, the level of trade between the Netherlands Antilles and CARICOM, the barriers to trade between the two groups of countries and the requirements for increasing trade between the two groups of countries. The Consultant was given an initial Draft Terms of Reference (Annex 1) with the intention of modifying it in the course of the interviews with all the stakeholders. The main idea that emerged from these interviews was a concern with some possible form of association with CARICOM. The Consultant was asked to exam the costs and benefits of various forms of association and to recommend an option. This adjustment of the Terms of Reference (TOR) was substantial and involved the Consultant having to do some interviews and collect documentation in CARICOM. The study essentially revolves around the search for a road map for the Netherlands Antilles. It is tackled in the first instance by describing the existing system of trade of the Netherlands Antilles with a view to determining the import and export structures and the specific nature and extent of trade in goods and services between the Netherlands Antilles and CARICOM. 1 Netherlands Antilles: Elements of a Strategy for Economic Recovery and Sustainable Growth. Interim Report of the World Bank Mission, 5-20 December 2000. 2 IMF, IMF Country Report No. 01/73 Kingdom of the Netherlands-Netherlands Antilles-Recent Development, Selected Issues and Statistical Appendix. May 2001 3 The Netherlands Antilles is a country within the Kingdom of the Netherlands. It contains five islands. Curacao and Bonaire (Leewards) and St Eustatius, Saba and St Maarten (The Windwards)"

International trade and maritime transport in the Caribbean

For the countries of the Caribbean, the international trade and transport of goods are more important than for many others in the region (see FAL Bulletin No. 136 Maritime transport in the Caribbean), and the subregion is strongly affected by structural changes in maritime transport (see FAL Bulletin No. 142 The impact of structural changes in liner shipping on Caribbean ports).For these reasons ECLAC's Transport Unit and the Commissions' sub-headquarters in the Caribbean, jointly organized a Meeting of Experts which took place in Port-of-Spain, Trinidad and Tobago, from 14 to 15 September 2000. Twenty-six participants took part, representing different academic, intergovernmental, financial and industrial institutions and organizations.This edition of the FAL Bulletin presents some of the results of this meeting.

Technologies applied to the transport sector: electronic fare collection systems

Electronic transactions are becoming increasingly commonplace in the countries of Latin America and the Caribbean, despite the collapse of many dotcom firms and the failure of e-commerce to make inroads in the region. In the transport sphere, the gradual incorporation of technology in support of processes and the exchange of money flows between players has brought greater versatility, security and flexibility. In public transport, such initiatives take the form of automatic ticket machines and prepaid card dispensing machines. In urban transit, electronic purses used for the supervision and payment of parking time, and in road pricing, electronic toll systems streamline the process of collecting money; this is especially the case with motorways and urban concessions. And in shipping, electronic transfers are increasingly being used for the payment of customs dues and port charges.In view of the importance of the topic and the interest expressed in it, the Transport Unit has begun a study of these issues, and recently published a paper entitled Sistemas de cobro electrónico de pasajes en el transporte público, ("Electronic systems for payment of tickets in public transport") LC/L.1752-P/E, July 2002, on which this issue of the Bulletin is based.