Tractable nonparametric Bayesian inference in Poisson processes with Gaussian process intensities

The inhomogeneous Poisson process is a point process that has varying intensity across its domain (usually time or space). For nonparametric Bayesian modeling, the Gaussian process is a useful way to place a prior distribution on this intensity. The combination of a Poisson process and GP is known as a Gaussian Cox process, or doubly-stochastic Poisson process. Likelihood-based inference in these models requires an intractable integral over an infinite-dimensional random function. In this paper we present the first approach to Gaussian Cox processes in which it is possible to perform inference without introducing approximations or finite-dimensional proxy distributions. We call our method the Sigmoidal Gaussian Cox Process, which uses a generative model for Poisson data to enable tractable inference via Markov chain Monte Carlo. We compare our methods to competing methods on synthetic data and apply it to several real-world data sets.

Probing protein aggregation with quartz crystal microbalances.

The supra-molecular self-assembly of peptides and proteins is a process which underlies a range of normal and aberrant biological pathways in nature, but one which remains challenging to monitor in a quantitative way. We discuss the experimental details of an approach to this problem which involves the direct measurement in vitro of mass changes of the aggregates as new molecules attach to them. The required mass sensitivity can be achieved by the use of a quartz crystal transducer-based microbalance. The technique should be broadly applicable to the study of protein aggregation, as well as to the identification and characterisation of inhibitors and modulators of this process.

Probing biomolecular interaction forces using an anharmonic acoustic technique for selective detection of bacterial spores.

Receptor-based detection of pathogens often suffers from non-specific interactions, and as most detection techniques cannot distinguish between affinities of interactions, false positive responses remain a plaguing reality. Here, we report an anharmonic acoustic based method of detection that addresses the inherent weakness of current ligand dependant assays. Spores of Bacillus subtilis (Bacillus anthracis simulant) were immobilized on a thickness-shear mode AT-cut quartz crystal functionalized with anti-spore antibody and the sensor was driven by a pure sinusoidal oscillation at increasing amplitude. Biomolecular interaction forces between the coupled spores and the accelerating surface caused a nonlinear modulation of the acoustic response of the crystal. In particular, the deviation in the third harmonic of the transduced electrical response versus oscillation amplitude of the sensor (signal) was found to be significant. Signals from the specifically-bound spores were clearly distinguishable in shape from those of the physisorbed streptavidin-coated polystyrene microbeads. The analytical model presented here enables estimation of the biomolecular interaction forces from the measured response. Thus, probing biomolecular interaction forces using the described technique can quantitatively detect pathogens and distinguish specific from non-specific interactions, with potential applicability to rapid point-of-care detection. This also serves as a potential tool for rapid force-spectroscopy, affinity-based biomolecular screening and mapping of molecular interaction networks.

Asymptotic behaviour of approximate Bayesian estimators

Although approximate Bayesian computation (ABC) has become a popular technique for performing parameter estimation when the likelihood functions are analytically intractable there has not as yet been a complete investigation of the theoretical properties of the resulting estimators. In this paper we give a theoretical analysis of the asymptotic properties of ABC based parameter estimators for hidden Markov models and show that ABC based estimators satisfy asymptotically biased versions of the standard results in the statistical literature.

Bayesian learning of noisy Markov decision processes

This work addresses the problem of estimating the optimal value function in a Markov Decision Process from observed state-action pairs. We adopt a Bayesian approach to inference, which allows both the model to be estimated and predictions about actions to be made in a unified framework, providing a principled approach to mimicry of a controller on the basis of observed data. A new Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) sampler is devised for simulation from theposterior distribution over the optimal value function. This step includes a parameter expansion step, which is shown to be essential for good convergence properties of the MCMC sampler. As an illustration, the method is applied to learning a human controller.

Filtering via approximate Bayesian computation

Approximate Bayesian computation (ABC) has become a popular technique to facilitate Bayesian inference from complex models. In this article we present an ABC approximation designed to perform biased filtering for a Hidden Markov Model when the likelihood function is intractable. We use a sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) algorithm to both fit and sample from our ABC approximation of the target probability density. This approach is shown to, empirically, be more accurate w.r.t.~the original filter than competing methods. The theoretical bias of our method is investigated; it is shown that the bias goes to zero at the expense of increased computational effort. Our approach is illustrated on a constrained sequential lasso for portfolio allocation to 15 constituents of the FTSE 100 share index.